September 2010 Executive Summary - REDMAP Mission: Win 107 key races in 16 states and control up to 25 additional Congressional seats in redistricting. September 2010 Update: Because all GOP Chambers are ?safe,? number of key races is expanded to 119 races in 17 states. The congressional redistricting impact is increased to 30 seats. Executive Summary - June 2010 Status Report: Pick-up/Hold 8 Chambers Toss Up 8 Chambers In play 16 Chambers September 2010 Update: Hold all GOP Chambers Pick-up at least 10 Democratic Chambers 17 Chambers in play (All Democratic controlled) Executive Summary 0 New Control of Congressional Seat Count June 2010: Pick-up/Hold 17 Seats Toss Up 8 Seats In play 25 Seats September 2010 Update: Pick-up/Hold 17 Seats Toss Up 13 Seats In play 30 Seats - These predictions assume REDMAP is fully funded Tier I Michigsan Senate Outlook: Safe GOP IIold Impact on Congressional Seats Neutralize Democrat Advantage Seats Needed for GOP Control Hold 2 TARQETS Open Seats 8 (R), 1 (D) Democrat Incumbents 2 Total Seats in Play Michigan House Outlook: ?ess?Up Pick?up! Impact on Congressional Seats 3 Seats Needed for GOP Control 13 TARQETS Open Seats 6 (R), 11 (D) Democrat Incumbents 13 Republican Incumbents 3 Total Seats in Play 2 33 Tier I .hi 0 House Outlook: GOP Pick-?up Impact on Congressional Seats 5 Seats Needed for GOP Control 4 EETS Democrat Incumbents 12 Total Seats in Play 12 Tier I Texas House Outlook: Safe GOP IIold Impact on Congressional Seats 6 Seats Needed for GOP Control Hold 3 TARS EETS Democrat Incumbents 13 Republican Incumbents 4 Total Seats in Play 16 Tier II Seats Needed for GOP Control 3 House TARGETS Open Seats 2 Democrat Incumbents 10 OUthOk: Total Seats in Play 12 GOP Pick-up Impact on Congressional Seats 4 Tier II New York Senate Outlook: Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats Neutralize Democrat Advantage Seats Needed for GOP Control 2 TARQETS Open Seats 1 (R) Democrat Incumbents 3 Total Seats in Play 4 10 Tier Indiana House Outlook: GOP Pick-up Impact on Congressional Seats 2 Seats Needed for GOP Control 3 TARGETS Open Seats 1 (R), 1 (D Democrat Incumbents 10 Total Seats in Play a 12 11 {a Tier Ill Nevada Senate Outlook: Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats Neutralize Democrat Advantage Seats Needed for GOP Control 2 TARQETS Open Seats 4 (R), 4 (D) Democrat Incumbents 2 Republican Incumbents 1 Total Seats in Play 4 12 Tier IV Alabama House Outlook: Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats 1* *Reauires both chambers to switch Seats Needed for GOP Control 8 TARQETS Open Seats 4 (D) Democrat Incumbents 9 Total Seats in Play 2 13 13 Tier IV Alabama Senate Outlook: Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats 1* *Requires both chambers to switch Seats Needed for GOP Control 3 TARQETS Open Seats 1 (R), 2 (D) Democrat Incumbents 7 Republican Incumbents 2 Total Seats in Play 12 14 Tier IV Seats Needed for GOP Control Colorado 6 House TARQETS Open Seats 1 (R), 3 (D) Democrat Incumbents 8 OUthOk: Total Seats in Play 11 Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats 1* ="'Need sweep; requires GOP Win in Governor?s race 15 Tier IV Seats Needed for GOP Control Colorado 4 Senate TARGETS Open Seats 1 (R), 2 (D) Democrat Incumbents 4 OUthOk: Total Seats in Play 7 Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats 1* *Need sweep; requires GOP Win in Governor?s race 16 Tier IV Illinois House Outlook: Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats eutralize Democrat Advantage Seats Needed for GOP Control 12 TARQETS Open Seats 2 4 (D) Democrat Incumbents 12 Total Seats in Play 16 17 Tier IV Iowa House Outlook: GOP Pick-up Impact on Congressional Seats Neutralize Democrat Advantage Seats Needed for GOP Control 7 TARGETS Open Seats 6 (R), 7 (D) Democrat Incumbents 16 Republican Incumbents 5 Total Seats in Play 34 18 Tier IV .regon Senate Outlook: Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats Neutralize Democrat Advantage Seats Needed for GOP Control 4 TARGETS Open Seats 2 (D) Democrat Incumbents 5 Total Seats in Play 2 7 19 Tier IV Wisconsin Assembly Outlook: Toss Up Impact on Congressional Seats Neutralize Democrat Advantage Seats Needed for GOP Control 4 TARQETS Open Seats 6 Democrat Incumbents 3 Total Seats in Play 9 20 Tier IV Wisconsin Senate Outlook: GOP Pick-up Impact on Congressional Seats 1 Seats Needed for GOP Control 2 TARQETS Open Seats 1 (R) Democrat Incumbents 5 Total Seats in Play 6 21 i Political Report: September 2010 Introduction The REDistricting MAjority Project is a program of the Republican State Leadership Committee dedicated to keeping or winning Republican control of state legislatures that will have the most impact on Congressional redistricting in 2011. The inaugural REDMAP report, issued in July, discussed how the RSLC views a path to success in the 2010 state legislative races, assessed the impact on state level policy-making decisions and examined the long~term Congressional redistricting effects. This report examines some of the specific races that are part of the strategy for overtaking state legislatures that have the greatest impact on redistricting. NOTE: This report, and its outlook, assumes that REDMAP is fully funded, an assumption that is increasingly likely as fundraising activity is on pace to break all previous RSLC records. The Landscape I The 2010 state legislative elections have become a referendum on the Democrat approach to the economy and government spending at all levels. In state after state, Democrat Governors and Legislatures responded to the economic crisis by increasing taxes and failing to cut spending. mirroring the approach so aggressively pursued by President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats. The result is that in numerous legislative districts across the country that President Obama won in 2008 and are held by incumbent Democrats, voters have dramatically moved away from the Democrat Party and in the direction of a strong crop of fresh new Republican candidates seeking office. These candidates are strong advocates of less taxes, reduced government regulation and a government willing to tighten its belt and live within its means. This edition of the REDMAP Political Report includes three key findings: 1. There are at least 30 legislative seats won by President Obama in 2008 that could determine control of the Michigan, Ohio and Houses. In each of these seats, the Democrat incumbent voted for larger state budgets and massive tax increases in the midst of a recession. The outcomes in these races will be a clear referendum on Democrats? leadership in the states and in Washington, and will play a significant role in Congressional redistricting process; 2. Democrats will not gain control of a single state legislative chamber in the country this year, including key REDMAP chambers such as the Texas House, Michigan Senate and Tennessee House and Kentucky Senate; 3. As of today, Republicans will pick up six chambers with at least 11 additional Democrat- controlled chambers in key REDMAP states solidly in play. Page 1 of 8 This report has previously stated that if Republicans win only half of the legislative chambers in play, the result will be a net gain of 10 legislative chambers. This projection is starting to look more and more conservative as each week passes. The Impact Voters have demonstrated that they oppose the sorts of policies being implemented on a federal level that increase spending and raise taxes as opposed to cutting spending and taxes and reducing the overall size of government. This has led to an overwhelming disproval rating of the President and Congress. In particular, Independent voters, which already shifted away from Democrats in the New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts elections, are increasingly opposing Democrat policies. When Presidents go into a mid-term election with a sub- 50 percent approval rating, their party loses an average of 41 US. House seats - what is now referred to as a "wave election." Wave elections have proven to have massive impacts on state legislative races across the country as evidenced by 1994 when Republicans won 472 state legislative sea-ts. In 1998 a non ?wave election? year, Republicans won one state legislative seat. Page 2 of 8 State Of the States I GOP Picks up Six Chambers (As of September 16, 2010] Indiana House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 3 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 11 Total: 13 INSIDER TIPS GOP lost 3 sea ts by fewer than 500 votes in '08 Michigan House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 13 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 15 Total: 27 INSIDER TIPS 9 targeted Dem seats were part of ?08 Obama wave had previously been in GOP hands since '02 North Carolina House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 9 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 15 Total: 18 INSIDER TIPS GOP leading in 7 Dem held seats in public polling Ohio House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 4 Democrat Incumbents: 20 Total: 20 INSIDER TIPS GOP candidates have COH advantage in 4 Dem held seats; Page 3 of8 GOP lost 3 targeted seats in ?08 by fewer than 1,000 Votes; john Kasich is leading in all ten of the most vulnerable Democrat in cumben districts House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 3 Open Seats: 5 Democrat Incumbents: 15 Total: 20 INSIDER TIPS GOP lost 6 targeted sea ts by 900 or fewer votes in '08 Wisconsin Senate NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 2 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 6 Total: 7 INSIDER TIPS 3 targeted Dem seats that were carried by GOP AG in '06 Page 4 of 8 State of the States 11 Democrat Controlled Chambers in Play (As of September 16, 2010) Alabama House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 8 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 9 Total: 13 INSIDER TIPS GOP lost 4 seats by fewer than 400 votes in ?08 Alabama Senate NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 3 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 7 Republican Incumbents: 2 Total: 12 INSIDER TIPS GOP lost2 seats by fewer than 512 votes in '08 Colorado House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 6 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 8 Total: 11 INSIDER TIPS GOP within the margin or leading in 3 Dem held seats in early polling Colorado Senate NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 4 Open Seats: HR), 2 (D) Democrat Incumbents: 4 Total: 7 INSIDER TIPS GOP leading or tied in 3 Dem held seats in early polling Page 5 of 8 Iowa House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 7 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 17 Republican Incumbents: 5 Total: 35 INSIDER TIPS Republican Caucus outraised Democrat Caucus by a 2 to 1 margin; House Democrat Majority Leader only reported $13, 000 on hand in july Iowa Senate NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 8 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 10 Total: 12 Illinois House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL 12 SEATS IN PLAY Open Seats: 3 (D) Democrat Incumbents: 11 Total: 15 Insider Tips Republicans are leading or are within the margin oferror in nine Democrat held seats New York Senate NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 2 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 5 Total: 6 Page 6 Of 8 North Carolina Senate NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 6 Open Seats: 4 (D) Democrat Incumbents: 8 Total: 12 INSIDER TIPS GOP leads in 7 Dem held seats in public polling Oregon Senate NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 4 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 5 Total: '7 INSIDER TIPS GOP has lead, trails by single digits in polling for 4 top tier races Wisconsin House NEED FOR REPUBLICAN CONTROL SEATS IN PLAY 4 Open Seats: Democrat Incumbents: 16 Total: 19 INSIDER TIPS GOP lost 4 seats by 722 or fewer votes in '08 Page 7 of 8 Impact on Congressional Redistrictingl If and when Republicans are successful in the races addressed in this report, the Republican Party will have an impact on the redrawing of numerous Congressional districts across the country, an effect that will be felt for the next decade. Republicans have an opportunity to create 20-25 new Republican Congressional Districts through the redistricting process over the next five election cycles, solidifying a Republican House majority. In fact, 33 of the 75 most competitive congressional districts, as identified in National Public Radio?s June report, are located in REDMAP target states this year. If RED MAP achieves its goals, nearly half of the traditionally swing districts will be redrawn by Republicans before the 2012 election cycle. The remaining seats will either be subject to Democrat control or part of a partisan-neutral redistricting process. Chamber Congressional Impact Notes Indiana House Up to 2 New GOP Districts Requires Senate hold, switch House Ohio House Up to 5 New GOP Districts Requires Senate hold, House switch, GOP Governor House Up to 4 New GOP Districts Requires Senate hold, House switch, GOP Governor Wisconsin Senate Neutralize Dem Advantage Requires both chambers to switch, and GOP Governor Alabama House 1 New GOP District Requ1res both chambers to Alabama Senate switch and GOP Governor Colorado House 1 New GOP District Requires both chambers to Colorado Senate switch and GOP Governor Illinois House Neutralize Dem Advantage Iowa House Neutralize Redistricting Process Legislature can override bi- lowa Senate partisan commissmn Michigan House Up to 3 New GOP Districts Requires Senate hold, House switch, GOP Governor New York Senate eutralize Dem Advantage North Carolina House eutralize Dem Advantage North Carolina Senate Oregon Senate Neutralize Dem Advantage Wisconsin House 1 New GOP District Requires both chambers to switch, GOP Governor Page 8 of 8 Paid for by the Republican State Leadership Committee 0 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 230, Alexandria, VA 22314 EVENT HOST THANK YOU Name Title Company Address City, State Zip Dear Name, Thank you for hosting Rep. Tom Reynolds and me for lunch in CITY last week to support the Republican State Leadership Committee?s redistricting program, REDMAP. The event was a success and would not have been possible without your leadership and active participation. State leaders from across the country acknowledge the difference the RSLC makes in electing Republicans at the state level. Your support of REDMAP will enable us to have an impact in crucial state legislative races this year that will affect the redrawing of Congressional district maps as a result of reapportionment in 2011. As you may know, more races are scheduled in 2010 than any other year in a four-year cycle. This November, elections will be held for 30 Attorneys General, 26 Secretaries of State, 11 independently elected Lt. Governors, and in 88 legislative chambers across the country. Beyond our REDMAP effort, which will shape the Congressional landscape for the next decade, the RSLC will continue with its mission to provide strategic and ?nancial resources to support winning down-ballot elections. Once again, thank you for your time and effort on our behalf, and please do not hesitate to contact me with concerns or questions. Sincerely, Edward W. Gillespie Chairman Contributions or gifts to the Republican State Leadership Committee and its a?ih?ated state PA Cs are not tax deductible. Contributions may be used for activities of the RSLC and its a?iliated state PA Cs at the RSLC ?s sole discretion. Yhe RSLC does not accept earmarked contributions. Contributions from foreign nationals are not solicited or permitted.