Political Report: July 2010 Introduction I The REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP) is a program ofthe Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) dedicated to winning Republican control ofstate legislatures that will have the most impact on Congressional redistricting in 2011. This inaugural REDMAP report is intended to more fully explain how the RSLC views a path to success in the 2010 state legislative races, how that will impact policy?making on a state level and examine what it means for long-term Congressional redistricting. This report, and its outlook, assumes that REDMAP is fully funded, an assumption that is consistent with the current state of fundraising. The Landscape I This edition of the REDMAP Political Report includes two key findings: 1. That Democrats will not take control of a single state legislative chamber in the country this year, including key REDMAP chambers such as the Texas House, Michigan Senate and Tennessee House; and 2. That, as of today, Republicans will pick up four chambers with 12 additional Democrat controlled chambers in key REDMAP states solidly in play. The bottom line, as ofluly, is that if Republicans win only half ofthose remaining 12 legislative chambers in play, the result will be a net gain of 10 legislative chambers. Legislative Impact I Voters are looking for legislative policies to sufficiently address the hardships they are facing on a day?to?day basis. At the same time, voters, including large blocs of independents are weary of the Democrats? over reaching approach on taxes, spending, healthcare and a myriad ofother issues. Surveys continue to demonstrate they are more inclined to support Republican policies on these issues. The result ofthese switches of party control with new Republican Speakers, Majority Leaders and other legislative leaders will be a move towards smaller government, lower taxes and protection from Democrat over-reach. Historical Context This year will not be a typical election cycle in terms of shift in partisan control. As oftoday, it appears that 2010 will be more successful for Republicans than 1982 was for the Democrats and could even rival the Republican successes seen on the state level in 1994. The year, for either party, which is viewed as most successful, would be 1974 when, in the wake of Watergate, Democrats gained a net of 21 chambers. in raw numbers, Democrats gained a net of nine chambers in 1982, while Republicans gained a net 19 chambers in 1994. The Democrat?s performance in 2006, when they gained a net of eight chambers, simply will not compare to 2010. Impact on Congressional Redistrictingl if and when Republicans are successful in the races addressed in this report, the Republican Party will have an impact on the redrawing of numerous Congressional districts across the country, an effect that will be felt for the next decade. Republicans have an opportunity to create 20-25 new Republican Congressional Districts through the redistricting process over the next five election cycles, solidifying a Republican House majority. In fact, 33 of the 75 most competitive congressional districts, as identified in National Public Radio?s June report, are located in REDMAP target states this year. If REDMAP achieves its goals, nearly half of the traditionally swing districts will be redrawn by Republicans before the 2012 election cycle. The remaining seats will either be subject to Democrat control or part of a partisan-neutral redistricting process. Chamber Congressional Impact Notes Indiana House Up to 2 New GOP Districts Requires Senate hold, switch House lost 3 seats by fewer than 500 votes in ?08 Ohio House Up to 5 New GOP Districts Requires Senate hold, House switch, GOP Governor candidates have OH advantage in 4 Dem held seats; GOP lost 3 targeted seats in ?08 by fewer than 1,000 votes; john Kasich is leading in all ten of the most vulnerable Democrat incumbent districts House Up to 4 New GOP Districts Requires Senate hold, House switch, GOP Governor lost 6 targeted seats by 900 or fewer votes in '08 Wisconsin Senate Neutralize Dem Advantage Requires both chambers to switch, and GOP Governor *3 targeted Dem seats that were carried by COP AG in ?06 Alabama House 1 New GOP District Requires both chambers to Alabama Senate switch and GOP Governor *Alabama House - GOP lost 4 sea ts by fewer than 400 votes in '08 *Alabama Senate - GOP lost 2 seats by fewer than 512 votes in ?08 Colorado House 1 New GOP District Requires both chambers to Colorado Senate switch and GOP Governor *Colorado House - GOP within the margin or leading in 3 Dem held seats in early polling *Colorado Senate - GOP leading or tied in 3 Dem held seats in early polling iowa House Neutralize Redistricting Process ?@513th can override bi? Iowa Senate partisan *lowa House Republican Caucus outraised Democrat Caucus by a 2 to 1 margin; House Democrat Majority Leader only reported $13,000 on hand in july Michigan House Up to 3 New GOP Districts Requires Senate hold, House switch, GOP Governor *9 targeted Dem seats were part of ?08 Obama wave had previously been in GOP hands since ?02 New York Senate . Neutralize Dem Advantage North Carolina House Neutralize Dem Advantage North Carolina Senate *In both the NC House Senate- GOP leading in 7Dem held seats in public polling Oregon Senate I Neutralize Dem Advantage has lead, trails by single digits in polling for 4 top tier races Wisconsin House 1 New GOP District Requires both chambers to switch, GOP Governor lost 4 sea ts by 722 or fewer votes in ?08 Paid for by the Repubiican State Leadership Committee 0 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 230, Alexandria, VA 22314