Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 TRANSMITTAL SLIP 3 - .- m: TO: ROOM N0. BUILDING REMARKS: TAT DDA DDA REEISTRY RECEIVED A COPY. lA/? Copy 017' ta/al/Ya/ TAT FROM: ROOM NO. BUILDING EXTENSION FORM N0. REPLACES FORM 36?8 (47) 1 FEB 56 241 WHICH MAY BE USED. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07: CIA-RDP88G00186R000700850018-7 EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT ROUTING SLIP TO: ACTION INFO DATE INITIAL DCI DDCI EXDIR DDI DA DDO GC IG CompVOGNOJUILUPJ _a P0 SUSPENSE Dene Remarks TO #14: Please prepare an appropriate reaponse. TAT Exucutive Secretary 3 0 OCT 8 5 Dan 3637 5 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 CIA-RDP88G00186R000700850018-7 I I Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 Exam" i i661 4167 1,022 I . l/ Uh ~75AFIO (QM/mew 0&9 WQUeg/ifag 7?17 18M PC JOE/ware Mark MqQ?Ma/c 44? mkugw Luv/?w Eu 0 L147 M49 ;mA? 4% hm w??7 M7 mekch/NFL 0%?Ewe/cw). ?ak/PL (rt/e 418? TQM Men/6mg UM \i we it 0ch (leg Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 CIA-RDP88G00186R000700850018-7 - - ..- - 7 Sanitized-Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 on CORPORATION MN [51219380005 55343 0L Qah 750? GHQ 4m ?pyyevh Cmu?Q CABC My L7 0m) 0C Mme I m0? ah?g ekOfofm?Qw?) MOT ?at; ?hdeJcQL/ 711?: vae Coh?ke+4b Wifb 1+7 00 CC, Lye?Ms) 7 Emma ?g?j EM \fweJ . F?Dhb? Sanitiz ed Copy Approv ved for Release 2010/06/07: CIA- ?l Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 m: A Test of Analytical Skill AGENT 2.0 is a test of your analytical skills that challenges your information processing ability. You have the information. Is the crisis real or imagined? Is the spy ours or theirs? Is the file fact or fiction? You must decide the truth of Operation Kaleidoscope. Agent 2.0 is a counterespionage adventure. in-basket exercise, and PC 008 tutorial all combined into first class software. Created by Michael de St. Hippolyte. Requires PC with DOS 2.0. 1 28K memory. color/graphics adapter. and color monitor. IBM is a registered trademark of International Business Machines Corporation. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 S??itized CobJAbbrOVed for Release 2010/06/07 3-D Spreadsheets II 1 a (1180M 3d I November 1985 $3.95 The Compreberzsiv Guide to Canada e~ Foreign $3.95. IBM rsonal Co puters and Compatibles 8 00 b1 513111.114 - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 R000700850018-7 313 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 CIA-RDP88G00186R000700850018-7 LEADING EDGE UITH NFL CHALLENGE SIHULATION PC mom.? COVER: New York. New York. October 281 1385 The National Football League has joined the personal computer world with the introduCtion of its officially-licensed simulation of NFL football. NFL Challenge: which graces the cover of the November iSSue of PC worlds the IBM PC world's largest publication. PC World's cover story; "Joe Montana Plays NFL Challenge": gives NFL Challenge high praise indeed. Says John Bello. executive vice ?president of NFL Properties. the licensing arm of the NFL. ?we 'have been watching the steady growth and rising prominence of personal computers in our society and felt that the time had come a for the NFL to get involved. And we're really pleased with NFL .Challenge." David Bunnella Publisher of PC world. says: "when IBM got involved in personal computing. it was big news. but it was expected. The getting into personal computing is unexpected. and it is very exciting. It allows PC world to put NFL Challenge and Joe Montana on the cover." - - The November issue of PC world is available on newsstands _nationwide. In his conclusion. PC world associate editor Eric Brown writes. NFL Challenge is great fun. It's been a long time since a program has consistently kept me up until 3 in the Sophisticated simulation games such as NFL Challenge might provide the spark that's been missing from the world of, ..- 4 . I. @2363; NFL Challenge is an extremely sophisticated simulation of NFL football that uses all of the features of the Personal Computer and its pure compatibles. It has many sophisticated features and features state-ofetheiart animated grpahics of actual football plays. In the feature articles H?ers star quarterback Joe Nontana plays a quarter of NFL Challenge against Brown in a replay of Super Bowl XIX. ?ontanaa coaching the H?ersa takes the ball down the field to score on his first drive. highlighted by a big fourth-and-one lH-yard touchdown pass to Dwight Clark. The quarter ended with the .H?ers leading 13-3. Cc 1956i Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 CIA-RDP88G00186R000700850018-7 an?: bk Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 Brown describes Montana reacting to the animated play graphics of one play: need help:" he said as he saw the eight rushers draw a bead on his on-screen doppelganger. "Oh: man. what's he throwing to the weak side for?"?Pass incomplete." Nontana's reaction to NFL Challenge? think it's great:" he was quoted as saying. especially like the idea that you can use the Undo key to see what would have happened if you had called another play. You don't get that luxury on the field." NFL Challenge was developed by Minnesota-based Xor Corporation under a license from NFL Properties. Says Buddy Diamond: Xor's founder: "Our crack team of Harvard and Stanford wiz kids was told to push back the outside of the enve10pe concerned: and they did it. And our package: created by NFL Properties' Creative Services Division: which includes the highly informative NFL Illustrated Playbook: is the best in our industry. The product is available in hundreds of retail stores nationwide: including 8- Dalton Software Etco: Uherehouse Entertainment: ComputerCraft: Schaak Electronics: and Lechmere Sales. It costs Said John Dvorak: noted computer columnist fOr the San Francisco Examiner: "If there's a computer game worth this is it: believe me." Brown's comment in his article sums it up: Challenge is more than a game; it's a close simulation that can teach you a lot about football." For the millions of IBM personal computer users interested in the NFL: NFL Challenge is a dream come true. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 Sahitieedeopy Approved for Release Xor Corporation . ISummary of Fifta Runs-of Vikin s?at Bears._ Simula ion Run ctober 22 "198 NFL Challenge_Simulation gension 3 Bears won 45.3 of Vikings won 5.0 of Uses end-1984 rosters so best?use of? at; results is in a? To edit to 1985 rosterst I ?see NFL Challenge User's Guide?pageg?l7,318 ??nd 36. customized simulationfr "?35 CAI ax. Inverage Results from 58 -1 .V _Team 0?57Vikings??f?ipJq-?YF Points 25 3 First Downs 23 14 5":1 PsConvs 6 - 13 - 46.2% 4 - 2 - 33.3% Time of 24:50 A Total Net 356 213 . Plays 64 5.6 52 - 4.1 Loiji Net Rush 139 . Plays - 4B 4.7 22 3.6 Net Pass - 167 134 Qverage Pass I . 4.5 I Saeks 1 5 4 31 Punts 9v 4 39.5 5 40.3- gjck} ?7 Return 119' 7 Penalty 6 - 47 4 34 Fumble - Lost 2 1 1 - 1 Minimum Results from 56 games played . Team- Bears Vikings Points 10 . G. First Downs Convs 2 7 28.6% 0 - 8 Time of poss 23:59 17:53 Total Net 159 91 . Plays - 42 3.8 28 - 3.3 Net Rush 82 36 Plays nvg. 27 3.9 11 2.7 Net Passaverage Pass 5.1 3.6 Sacks - 0 0 6 Punts - 0.2 1 - 44.@ Return 29 37 Penalty Yds' 1 1% 1 18 Fumble - Lost? 9 - 0 Maximum Results from 56 games played Team . Beans Vikings Points 55 27 'First Downs Convs 13 19 68.4% 9 19 47.4X Time of poss 42:10. 36:61 Total Net 639 402 Plays 92 6.9 88 4.6 Net Rush 382 1 2 Plays 57 5.3 35 4.1 Net Pass 337 26?verage Pass . . Sacks - 3 18 9 68 Return 258 2 4 6 Penalty 11 - 93 8 74 Fumble Lost 6 - 4 4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 . 4.. A Sanitized Copy Approve?a} Release 2010/06/07 a; :2 a Lip/135M. now A Microcomputer Program for Calibrating Intelligence (2?f by Glenn E. Diamond, Xor Corporation 6; "It is likely that most most of the time, are not even aware of the background level of uncer ainty because their gob is to bring reason out of the chaos, not to study the chaos itsel d: -- Fredric S. Feer Analytical Assessments Corporation . Colloquium on Analysis and Estimates (1979) Consortium for the Study of Intelligence A. Generally. I In the intelligence roduction system, the Analyst could be said to be a knowledge worker fashions information from data for action by the - S) policymakers and decisionmakers of national government. to assure hat their outputs are within acceptable tolerances demanded by the end users of the product. Surely, a normal result of all human gna?ySis is partial error. To paraphrase Bishop Berkeley: To be is to eceive . . gust like fine machine tools, must be calibrated constantly In each analysis, the analyst uses critical judgments, assumptions, and logic on data to create information in usable form: Rarely does the ana have the time, inclination, or bureaucratic imperative to do these two things: a) Seek and incorporate into analysis raw intelligence that has been filtered ou of collection output due to it being false erroneous, or based on deception as determined coun erintelligence, or b) stematically analyze the critica judgments assumptions, and ogic underlying analysis from a counterintelligence perspective. B. Calibration Important. An analyst out of calibration is susceptible to preconception, Self-deception, and external deception. are the target of strategic decegtion; we know that. Deception is expanding exponentially now' we know at. Yet we depend on intelligence analyses and estimates in formulating our national policy. A properly calibrated analyst will "turn over as many rocks" as . necessary to produce good intelligence product. This is an art; if too many ?rocks" are turned over, the product has decayed past its _hal -Iife, if too few, the product is more Opinion than information as it was fermented from tunne -vision or myoEia or preconce tion or premature cognitive commitment'iHarvard?s . J. Langer?s erm). Calibration of the analyst is an example of integrating . counterintelli ence into all aspects of the inte igence production system. In fac the modern ana must have an ?on-board counterintelligence module?. In a state-of-the-art intelligence roduction system the counterintelligence staff ana yzes he who have already anal zed themselves. All collected data should pass to analySis r_'unfi tered, but counterintelligence-rated. . C.jThe Simulator. A microcom uter?based (hence portable) program can be developed which, though abs ract in nature can enable an analyst or the analyst?s superiors or counterintelligence to check ana calibration. 1; It will present to the analyst a "test pattern" over which the analyst, rican lay a specific analysis for calibra ion: - 1. Identifies data universe of analysis. 2. Uses Tn-i, n+1" rule to reach contradiction point. 3. Identifies critical judgments and assumptions. Sanmzed Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 CIA-RDP88GOO186R000700850018-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07 Page Two . 4. uses 'disconfirmed disconfirmation' to check logic. 5. Builds "matrix of analyses" off of analysis. 6. Analyst analyzes analysis of analysis with manager. The result of this activity can produce useful information for the analyst, intelli ence management, and counterintelligence to create gulti-leveled a1 -source deception insurance. That is what must be one. . For instance, step one assures that an acceptable universe of data wast analyzed. That implies data of all ?vectors and "scalars", including nega ive data, uncertain data, false data, deception data, etcetera. Step two alters that universe in many ways to ascertain at what point the analysis breaks down or contradicts itself. This rates the calibration of the analyst in his deta acquisition function, and especially pointing out anchoring biases. Ste three is an important process as the analyst analyzes the ana ysis; dissects it for additional tests. The quality of this dissection is an important calibration check too, since if the checking_ is sub?standard the analysis will tend to head in that direction. Step four is the falsification test. ?n analysis must be falsifiable to be usable as finished intelligence product. very disconfirMing element -must be reckoned and either confirmed or disconfirmed. which leads to step five, wherein all the various possible analyses branching from the main analysis are elaborated. Of course, absolute disconfirma ion (the disconfirming of all disconfirmations) is an One thing the analyst will learn from this program is that Q?s are seldom given. 'In step six, with other staff, the anal st grades the analysis and re-calibrates. 9 record should be kept aid in future evaluations of ?Ehe apal st?s analyses and estimates and to assist the analyst from ime ime. D. The Goal. The major problem in analyst training and evaluation is the problem of defining analyst itse f. This program ends up there. The modern analyst in the modern intelligence production 5 stem probably needs to be evaluated not in academic arms, but as the ybridization of collector, counterintelligence, and collator. The shoe-box gives way to Qrthur C. Clarke?s "monolith". ?nd objective and subjective observa ion of the analyst-in-calibration would be high-quality grist for the counterinte ligence mill. Though Don Quixote said Ffacts are the great enemy of truth" it is important to state that when in a near-infinite potential da a environment, the analysis supercedes the data as the fundamental weakness. A finite se of_da a analyzed infinitely will yield more "fungible truth'l than an infinite set of data ana yzed finitely. The ?nalyst Function can be refined and refined. If we analyze it. The End3 Glenn E. Diamond is the founder of Xor Corporation, an IBM PC software development house in Minnetonka Minnesota that specializes in advanced Simula ion work. Its first simulation for the consumer market the popular by the NFL is the cover stor topic in the November issue of PC World: "Joe Montana pla 5 NFL Chal enge". Mr. Diamond is a recognized technological thinker 0 has made contributions in the fields of third world industrial deve10pment ("Export Development FunctionalitB with an Im ort Substitution Form Factor for an Optimal Industrial evelo ment elocity per Increment of Domestic Resource Costs Emplo ed", RQPR 1981) and conventional deterrence ("Robotic Armored nfantry Command for Ultimate Conventional Deterrence Qlong the NATO Central Qrmy Group Front", 1983). Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/06/07