February 2018

OPM - Criminal Justice Policy & Planning Division

CT recidivism rates, 2014 cohort
Highlights
During 2014, 11,245 men and
women left prison facilities in the
state having completed, or partially
completed, a prison sentence.
Over the next 3 years:
60% were re-arrested,
53% were returned to prison,
for at least one single day,
45% were convicted for a new
offense, and
34% returned to prison to begin
a new term of incarceration.
Offenders could be returned to
prison for a variety of reasons
including new criminal charges or
technical violations of their
community supervision.
Overall, women who were released
from prison in 2014 recidivated at
moderately lower rates than men,
regardless of the type of recidivism
(see page 2).

Overall recidivism rates – 2014 release cohort
The Criminal Justice Policy & Planning Division (CJPPD) at CT OPM is
required to report on recidivism among Connecticut prisoners on an
annual basis. OPM calculates four separate measures of recidivism
for offenders leaving prison. They are: 1) new arrests 2) new
convictions 3) returns-to-prison for any reason, and 4) returns-to-prison
to begin a new sentence of incarceration.
OPM typically produces analysis based on the 3-year period following
an offender’s release from prison. In earlier studies, CJPPD has
reported on recidivism rates among prisoners released in 2004, 2005,
2008 and 2011. This report tracks offenders who left prison in 2014.

3-year recidivsm rates for offenders leaving prison in 2014
70%

New arrest rate

60%

Return to prison rate

60%

New Conviction Rate

50%

53%

New sentence rate

40%

45%

30%
34%

20%
10%

0%

General recidivism rates have
been dropping at a moderate pace
over the last decade. Between
2011 and 2014, recidivism rates
declined for every category of
recidivism with the exception of
return-to-prison rates for men.
When segmented by offender age
and prior sentence history, the 3year return to prison rate varied
between 15% and over-80% for
different sub-groups in the 2014release cohort.

CT OPM – February 2016

36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

Many offenders returned to prison
more than once during the 36month study window. Among the
6,026 offenders who were returned
to prison within three years, less
than a third were admitted only
once (see page 3).

Months since 2014 release

6 months
12 months
24 months
36 months

New arrest
rate
19%
34%
51%
60%

New conviction Return-to-prison New sentence
rate
rate
rate
6%
21%
4%
16%
33%
11%
35%
47%
25%
45%
53%
34%

For its analysis, OPM relies on data provided by the Court Support
Services Division (CSSD) in the Judicial Branch and the CT DOC MIS
Unit. OPM has followed the same research methodology for almost a
decade. The recidivism rates shown here aggregate the first recidivism
event, over time, for each recidivating offender in the cohort.
Because the overall recidivism rate changes so incrementally, OPM has
chosen to evaluate prisoner-cohorts spaced at three year intervals. The
data used in this report ran through December 31, 2017. Over the next
two years, OPM anticipates that it will produce two further analyses of
recidivism among the 2014 cohort. In the past, OPM’s off-year analysis
has focused on recidivism among specific subgroups of offenders that
present special challenges to the prison system.

Page 1 of 4

 Recidivism and CT prisons
How is recidivism measured?
Connecticut is one of six states in the nation with a
unified prison system. In unified systems, both
prisons and jails are operated by the state, and
the incarcerated population is composed of both
sentenced prisoners and pre-trial detainees. In
most states, county-level government operates the
jails. The recidivism rates reported here are
restricted to sentenced prisoners leaving prison in
2014.
CT’s prison population has been declining for a
decade and the sentenced component of that
population has been shrinking at an even faster
rate. The number of sentenced prisoners
currently incarcerated, is at its lowest level since
early-1993. With fewer prisoners, there are fewer
sentenced offenders leaving prison each year. As
a result, the size of the prisoner-cohorts OPM
uses in its analysis has been declining. The 2014release cohort includes 11,245 men and women,
10.6% less that the 2011-release cohort that
included 12,579 male and female offenders.

CT's Sentenced prison population
16,000

14,998 14,745

14,000

13,876 13,578

12,955

12,000

12,104 12,417 12,063 11,601

10,748

10,000

9,871

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

In addition to contracting, the composition of the
sentenced population has also changed
significantly. Legislation that raised the age at
which youths could be treated as adults in the
criminal justice system dramatically reduced the
number of young offenders in state prisons.
While the overall size of the 2014 cohort was
10.6% smaller than the 2011-prisoner cohort, the
number of offenders under the age of 25 declined
by 31%. The number of offenders under age-18
dropped by an astounding 74% between 2011 and
2014. Despite this, the number of sentenced
women declined by only a meager 3.5%.

Changes in the 2011 and 2014 cohorts
All
All - men
All - women
Under 25
Under 18

2011 cohort
12,579
11,235
1,344
2,712
236

CT OPM – February 2016

2014 chort
11,245
9,948
1,297
1,878
62

Change
-10.6%
-11.5%
-3.5%
-30.8%
-73.7%

Since younger offenders tend to recidivate at higher
rates than their older counterparts, fewer young
offenders might be expected to translate into lower
overall recidivism rates.

Recidivism and gender
Regardless of the measure, women offenders
recidivated at lower rates than their male
counterparts. While the reasons are not entirely
clear, it is well acknowledged that the
circumstances and pathways into prison for most
women is considerably different than it is for most
male prisoners.

Recidivsm rates and gender, 2014-cohort

Cohort size
New arrest rate
6 month
12 month
24 month
36 month
New conviction rate
6 month
12 month
24 month
36 month
Return-prison rate
6 month
12 month
24 month
36 month
New sentence rate
6 month
12 month
24 month
36 month

2014
cohort,
all
11,245

2014
female
cohort
1,297

2014
male
cohort
9,948

19%
34%
51%
60%

20%
32%
48%
56%

19%
34%
51%
60%

6%
16%
35%
45%

5%
14%
31%
40%

6%
16%
35%
46%

21%
33%
47%
53%

17%
26%
38%
43%

22%
34%
48%
55%

4%
11%
25%
34%

3%
8%
18%
24%

4%
12%
26%
35%

On average, female prisoners in the cohort were
admitted to prison at an older age than their male
counterparts. For males, more than 50% of the
group had been admitted to the CT DOC by the age
of 21. In contrast, only 26% of women had been
admitted by the age of 21.
By the age of 30, 82% of the men had already been
admitted to a DOC facility at least once: for women
the figure was 63%. On average, male offenders
first entered the DOC at the age of 24. Among
female offenders the average age of first DOC entry
was 29. Despite all this, the mean age of women in
the 2014-cohort (35.1 years), only slightly older than
the mean age for male members of the cohort.
(34.5 years).
Page 2 of 4

 In addition to entering prison at an earlier age, the
average male offender had a more extensive
sentence history with the DOC. Among women,
over half (51%) were completing their first or
second prison sentence at the time of their 2014
release. Among men, slightly more than a third
(34%) were completing their first or second prison
sentence in the state.
The average female offender in the cohort had
served 4 prison sentences in CT at the time of
their 2014 release. Men in the cohort averaged
prior 6 sentences.
The 2014 women’s-cohort, generally, had lower
sentence rates for violent offenses compared to
males. While 16% of the men had been sentenced
to prison for a felony assault, only 11% of women
had served a sentence for the same offenses.
Similarly, 16% of men had served time for robbery
compared to only 10% of women.
Women exhibited higher sentence rates, than men
in only two crime categories: theft/larceny and DUI
offenses.

Prior sentences served by 2014 cohort members
Crime type
Court-related
Drug-related
Theft/larceny
DUI-related
Burglary
Felony Assault
Robbery
Weapon
Threat/stalk/harass
Sex crime
Risk of injury
Kipnap-related
Homicide
Murder

2014
male
cohort
6,529
4,444
3,435
2,184
2,048
1,608
1,563
1,592
1,256
774
557
233
112
58

% of
males
66%
45%
35%
22%
21%
16%
16%
16%
13%
8%
6%
2%
1%
1%

2014
female
cohort
776
337
528
334
112
142
121
30
43
16
68
3
13
2

% of
females
62%
27%
42%
27%
9%
11%
10%
2%
3%
1%
5%
0%
1%
0%

Court-related: VOPs, FTAs

Re Multiple returns to prison
history
of incarceration
The recidivism data shown on page 1 aggregates
data for each offender based on the first
recidivism event within the three-year study
window. What the data does not reveal is that
many offenders returned to prison more than once
during the 3-years following their 2014 release.
In the following table, we observe that a
significant proportion of offenders were returned
to prison returned multiple times.
CT OPM – February 2016

Of the 6,026 offenders who were returned to prison,
within 3 years, only 32% (1,916) were readmitted just
once. In fact, a larger percentage of offenders (38%)
were returned to prison at least three times in the 3years following their releases.

Offenders w/multiple returns
Number of
returns to prison
within 3 years
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10+
Total
% returning once

2014
cohort,
all
1916
1834
1090
641
279
125
59
30
21
31
6026
32%

2014
female
cohort
225
129
109
57
29
8
4
2
1
3
567
40%

2014
male
cohort
1691
1705
981
584
250
117
55
28
20
28
5459
31%

The 6,026 offenders who returned to prison were
admitted to the DOC on 14,784 separate occasions
during the following three years. Approximately 400
offenders were readmitted ten or more times. Not
surprisingly, these offenders exhibited high rates of
chronic substance abuse and/or mental health issues.

Recidivism: 2011 and 2014
Connecticut has been fortunate in recent years with
respect to trends in the criminal justice system.
According to FBI data, crime rates, for both property
and violent crime, have declined dramatically. As a
consequence, many fewer people are being arrested
each year and fewer are being convicted and
sentenced to prison. With raise-the-age legislation,
CT essentially eliminated youth under the age of 18
from the prison system without a significant jump in
reported crime rates. Overall recidivism rates have
been declining for a decade.
3-year recidivism rates. 2005 through 2014
2005 2008 2011 2014
New arrest
66%
64%
63%
60%
New conviction 54%
51%
50%
45%
Return to prison 56%
54%
54%
53%
New sentence
37%
37%
35%
34%
In the 2014-cohort, almost two-thirds of the offenders
who returned to prison did so as pre-trial detainees,
on new charges. A quarter of the offenders who
returned, were re-admitted to prison as remandees,
having violated the technical conditions of their
community supervision.
Page 3 of 4

 In the following table, the total 2014-release cohort
has been segmented into 25 subgroups based on
offender ages and their sentence histories.
The columns show the age quintiles of offenders by
their ages in 2014. The rows segment the offenders
by the number of prison sentences the offenders had
served with the DOC prior to their 2014 release.

First returns to prison
Offenders,
1st return
Pre-trial admit
3821
Technical violation
1473
Criminal violation
458
Return absconder/escapee
196
Without prejudice
40
Return from other juris.
16
Offenders who returned
6004

% of
returns
64%
25%
8%
3%
1%
0%
100%

In recent years, the remand rate for parolees has
attracted some scrutiny in the state. Since 2017, the
CT DOC and the Board of Pardons and Paroles
(BOPP) have undertaken a major reassessment of
remand policies and practice. OPM will be tracking
the impact of these reforms.

3-year recidivism rates, 2011 and 2014
Cohort size
New arrest
6 month
12 month
24 month
36 month
New conviction
6 month
12 month
24 month
36 month
Return-to-prison
6 month
12 month
24 month
36 month
New sentence
6 month
12 month
24 month
36 month

Women
2011
2014
1,344
1,297

Men
2011
2014
11,235
9,948

20%
36%
54%
61%

20%
32%
48%
56%

21%
39%
55%
63%

19%
34%
51%
60%

9%
21%
39%
49%

5%
14%
31%
40%

8%
23%
44%
55%

6%
16%
35%
46%

18%
26%
37%
44%

17%
26%
38%
43%

21%
34%
48%
55%

22%
34%
48%
55%

5%
10%
20%
28%

3%
8%
18%
24%

4%
13%
27%
37%

4%
12%
26%
35%

The top section of the table shows the percentage at
which each subgroup that was returned to prison
within three years. The lower table, lists the number
of offenders in each subgroup.
From top section we observe that the 3-year, return–
to-prison rate varies widely, between 15% -for 47 to
92 year-olds who were completing their first prison
sentence - to over 80% for offenders under the age of
30 who had completed 13 or more sentecnes with the
DOC. Let us recall, the return-to-prison recidivism
rate for the entire cohort was 53%.
From the table we can observe two truisms with
respect to recidivism 1) recidivism rates decline with
age if we hold the sentence history constant, and 2)
recidivism rates worsen across all age groups as an
offender’s sentence history increases.

Return-to-prison, age and sentence history
Age quintiles - 2014 cohort

A r A range of recidivism rates
incarceration

In any discussion of recidivism it is important for
readers to maintain sight of the fact that an entire
prisoner-release cohort, like the one observed here,
is a non-homogenous population. Although entire
cohorts of prisoners may behave similarly over time,
and exhibit comparable outcomes, there are subgroups within the population - some quite large - that
behave much better, or much worse than the average
with respect to recidivism.

CT OPM – February 2016

Prior sentences
15 to 25 26 to 30 31 to 37 38 to 46
Return-to-prison recidivism rate
First
52%
32%
31%
26%
2nd or 3rd
64%
50%
47%
35%
4th to 6th
71%
67%
59%
43%
7nd to 12th
82%
77%
70%
59%
13 or more
89%
83%
76%
75%

47 to 93

Prior sentences
15 to 25 26 to 30 31 to 37 38 to 46
Offender distribution
First
806
469
407
357
2nd or 3rd
859
590
527
418
4th to 6th
462
589
594
410
7nd to 12th
157
381
665
618
13 or more
9
36
193
456

47 to 93

15%
29%
41%
53%
65%

428
409
352
470
579

This report was produced by the Research Unit in the
Criminal Justice Policy & Planning Division at the
Connecticut Office of Policy and Management.
450 Capitol Avenue
Hartford CT, 06106
Mike Lawlor, Under-Secretary
Ivan Kuzyk – Principal author
Kyle Baudoin – Planner
Kendall Bobula - Research
This report is available on-line at the OPM-CJPPD website. All
questions, comments and suggestions should be directed to the
Research Unit at CJPPD.

Page 4 of 4