Report to the Legislature on Washington Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: 2010 – 2013 October 2016 Publication no. 16-02-025 Publication and Contact Information This report is available on the Department of Ecology’s website at https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/publications/SummaryPages/1602025.html For more information, contact: Air Quality Program P.O. Box 47600 Olympia, WA 98504-7600 360-407-6800 Washington State Department of Ecology - www.ecy.wa.gov o Headquarters, Olympia 360-407-6000 o Northwest Regional Office, Bellevue 425-649-7000 o Southwest Regional Office, Olympia 360-407-6300 o Central Regional Office, Yakima 509-575-2490 o Eastern Regional Office, Spokane 509-329-3400 To request ADA accommodation, call (360) 407-6800, 711 (relay service), or (877) 833-6341 (TTY). Report to the Legislature on Washington Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: 2010 – 2013 by Gail Sandlin Air Quality Program Washington State Department of Ecology Olympia, Washington This page intentionally left blank. Table of Contents Page List of Figures and Tables..............................................................................................2 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................3 Background Information ................................................................................................4 Washington’s greenhouse gas legislation ................................................................4 Greenhouse gas emission inventory.........................................................................5 How the inventory was developed .....................................................................5 Greenhouse gas sectors ......................................................................................5 How greenhouse gas emissions are shown ........................................................5 Greenhouse gases included in the inventory......................................................6 Findings: Inventory Results ..........................................................................................7 Washington’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends ........................................................8 Trends by sector, 1990 – 2013 .................................................................................8 Trends by sector, 2010 – 2013 .................................................................................9 Trends by sector, Washington and U.S. ................................................................10 Summary of results by sector.................................................................................11 Transportation sector .......................................................................................11 Electricity consumption-based sector ..............................................................12 Residential, commercial, and industrial sector ................................................12 Fossil fuel industry sector ................................................................................13 Waste management sector................................................................................13 Industrial processes sector ...............................................................................13 Agriculture sector.............................................................................................13 Next Steps ....................................................................................................................14 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................15 1 List of Figures and Tables Page Figures Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Total Annual GHG Emissions (MMT CO2e) by Sector from 1990 – 2013 ........8 Total GHG Emissions (MMT CO2e) by Sector for 2010 – 2013 ........................9 Percent GHG Emissions by Sector – 2013, Washington and U.S. .................10 2010 – 2013 GHG emissions (MMT CO2e) from the Transportation Sector ..12 Tables Table 1: Global Warming Potential Factors for GHG .......................................................6 Table 2: Washington Total Annual GHG Emissions (MMT CO2e) ..................................7 Table 3: On-Road GHG Emissions Per Capita, 2013 .......................................................11 2 Executive Summary This report provides a summary of Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions from the 1990 baseline through 2013. The information in this report is used to evaluate Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions, where the emissions are coming from, and whether they are increasing or decreasing over time. Key findings are: • • • • • Washington’s 2013 total greenhouse gas emissions were 94.4 million metric tons (MMT). Washington’s 2013 total greenhouse gas emissions were 6 MMT higher than the 1990 baseline of 88.4 MMT. Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions declined by about 2.8 percent from 2010 to 2013. However, 2013 greenhouse gas emissions increased by about 0.8 percent from 2012 levels. Compared to the nation, the electricity sector in Washington contributes significantly less due to the availability of hydropower. In 2013, Washington’s largest contributors of greenhouse gases were: o Transportation sector at 42.8 percent. o Residential, commercial, and industrial sector at 22 percent. o Electricity sector at 19 percent. 3 Background Information Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are substances that contribute to climate change by trapping heat in the atmosphere. The internationally-recognized greenhouse gases are: • • • • • • • Carbon dioxide. Hydrofluorocarbons. Methane. Nitrogen trifluoride. Nitrous oxide. Perfluorocarbons. Sulfur hexafluoride. Greenhouse gases are released during: • • • • Stationary combustion, which occurs at places that use equipment (such as boilers) to produce electricity, steam, heat, or power. Mobile combustion, which occurs when fuel is burned for transportation (such as in cars, trucks, ships, trains, and planes). Industrial processes, such as manufacturing cement, aluminum, ammonia, etc. Fugitive releases from the production, processing, transmission, or distribution of fossil fuels (such as methane emissions released via leakage and venting from pipelines) Washington’s greenhouse gas legislation Passed in 2008, House Bill 2815 established limits for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Washington, and included specific requirements for reporting greenhouse gas emissions. These reporting requirements are in RCW 70.235.020 (2): By December 31st of each even-numbered year beginning in 2010, the department and the *department of community, trade, and economic development shall report to the governor and the appropriate committees of the senate and house of representatives the total emissions of greenhouse gases for the preceding two years, and totals in each major source sector… * renamed Department of Commerce 4 Greenhouse gas emissions inventory How the inventory was developed To develop an inventory of Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions, Ecology used a set of generally-accepted principles and made adjustments as needed to apply them to Washington. The inventory is based on aggregated data for each sector, not facility-specific emissions. The data to develop this inventory is provided by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s State Inventory and Projection Tool (SIT) designed specifically to help users develop State GHG inventories. Although the sector modules within SIT are updated periodically, the most recent data available is from 2013. In addition, Washington State Department of Commerce annually provides greenhouse gas emissions for electricity calculated from fuel mix disclosure data. Greenhouse gas sectors Ecology categorized greenhouse gas emissions into the following sectors: • • • • • • • Transportation. Electricity consumption. 1 Residential, commercial, and industrial. 2 Fossil fuel industry. 3 Waste management. Industrial processes. 4 Agriculture. How greenhouse gas emissions are shown In 1992, the United States signed and ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 of the UNFCCC states: …parties to the convention agreed develop, periodically update, and publish, national inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The emissions are to be reported by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies. The United States views EPA’s national greenhouse gas inventory report as an opportunity to fulfill these commitments. The United States and other developed countries have also agreed to 1 Electricity consumption – greenhouse gas emissions associated with Washington’s electricity demand Residential, commercial, and industrial - greenhouse gas emissions from fuels combusted to primarily produce space heating and/or process heating 3 Fossil fuel industry – greenhouse gas emissions known as fugitive emissions from leaking or venting in processing or distribution systems 4 Industrial processes - non-combustion sources of greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes 2 5 submit to the UNFCCC annual inventories starting with 2013 emission data, based on the use of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 global warming potential values. 5 Washington follows this guidance and methodology to develop this annual greenhouse gas inventory. Carbon dioxide equivalent: The emission inventory shows greenhouse gas emissions in million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Using carbon dioxide equivalent as a measurement allows us to capture the cumulative impacts of all greenhouse gases in one number. Global Warming Potential: Greenhouse gas emissions in this report use the global warming potential values from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Report 4, the international authority on greenhouse gas emissions. A greenhouse gas global warming potential is the ratio of its heat-trapping ability to that of carbon dioxide. For example, the global warming potential of nitrous oxide is 298 because one metric ton of nitrous oxide has 298 times more ability to trap heat in the atmosphere than one metric ton of carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gases included in the inventory Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory includes the greenhouse gases also found in the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory in Table 1. As stated previously, both inventories now use the global warming potential from the IPCC Assessment Report 4. 6 Table 1: Global Warming Potential Factors for Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) 1 25 298 12 – 14,800 7,390 – 12,200 22,800 17,200 5 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2014-Chapter-ExecutiveSummary.pdf 6 This 2013 inventory is the first time that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are reported using the Assessment Report 4 global warming potential values. https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHGInventory-2015-Annex-6-Additional-Information.pdf 6 Findings: Inventory Results As seen in Table 2, total greenhouse gas emissions for 2013 are estimated at 94.4 MMT CO2e. This represents an approximate 0.8 MMT increase from 2012 greenhouse gas emissions. Table 2: Washington State Total Annual GHG Emissions (MMT CO2e) Million Metric Tons CO2e Electricity, Net Consumption-Based Coal Natural gas Petroleum Biomass and waste (CH4 and N2O) Residential/Commercial/Industrial (RCI) Coal Natural gas Oil Wood (CH4 and N2O) Transportation On-road gasoline On-road diesel Marine vessels Jet fuel and aviation gasoline Rail Natural gas, LPG Fossil Fuel Industry Natural gas industry (CH4) Coal mining (CH4) Oil industry (CH4) Industrial Processes Cement manufacture (CO2) Aluminum production (CO2, PFC) Limestone and dolomite use (CO2) Soda ash ODS substitutes (HFC, PFC) Semiconductor manufacturing (HFC, PFC, SF6, NF3) Electric power T & D (SF6) Waste Management Solid waste management Wastewater management Agriculture Enteric fermentation Manure management Agriculture soils Total Gross Emissions 7 1990 16.9 16.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 18.6 0.6 8.6 9.1 0.2 37.5 20.4 4.1 2.6 9.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.2 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 6.4 2.0 0.7 3.7 88.4 2010 20.8 15.83 4.84 0.10 0.01 19.7 0.25 10.79 8.39 0.30 42.1 21.78 7.97 2.98 8.11 0.53 0.69 0.8 0.81 0.00 0.00 4.5 0.28 0.77 0.00 0.05 3.15 0.05 0.17 3.1 2.34 0.75 6.2 2.33 1.27 2.59 97.2 7 2011 15.7 12.80 2.80 0.10 0.01 21.1 0.17 11.91 8.73 0.30 41.9 21.31 7.99 3.32 7.62 0.97 0.64 0.8 0.81 0.00 0.00 4.6 0.25 0.77 0.00 0.05 3.25 0.07 0.17 3.1 2.38 0.76 6.5 2.42 1.30 2.73 93.7 Data variability from previous reports primarily due to revised GWPs released in IPCC’s AR4. 7 2012 15.2 12.10 3.00 0.10 0.01 20.7 0.20 11.55 8.64 0.30 42.5 21.20 7.38 4.12 8.02 0.97 0.76 0.8 0.82 0.00 0.00 4.6 0.26 0.67 0.00 0.05 3.37 0.06 0.14 3.2 2.46 0.77 6.6 2.47 1.34 2.81 93.6 2013 18.2 13.34 4.81 0.07 0.01 21.0 0.19 12.04 8.47 0.31 40.4 21.71 7.01 3.36 6.57 0.86 0.84 0.8 0.83 0.00 0.00 4.8 0.33 0.67 0.01 0.05 3.50 0.06 0.13 3.3 2.54 0.78 5.9 2.29 1.34 2.28 94.4 Washington’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends Trends by sector, 1990 – 2013 Figure 1 shows greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2013 by sector. There was a significant decrease in emissions between 2000 and 2002, mainly due to changes in the aluminum industry in Washington. Due to an error in the EPA State Inventory Tool module for Washington aluminum emissions, these emissions starting in 2008 have been adjusted. 8 This data variation is also reflected in the reported total annual emissions. Total greenhouse gas emissions in 2013 were 94.4 MMT CO2e, compared to 93.6 MMT CO2e for 2012. 120.0 Sector GHG Emissions (MMT CO2e) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Fossil Fuel Industry Agriculture Electricity Net Consumption-based Waste Management Industrial Processes RCI 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Figure 1: Total Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMT CO2e) by Sector from 1990 – 2013 8 The SIT module develops an estimate of aluminum emissions. This is calculated using a ratio of state capacity to total production. The state capacity was wrong because the capacity of a Washington facility had been left out. 8 Trends by sector, 2010 – 2013 Figure 2 compares total 2010 – 2013 greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity, residential, commercial, and industrial (RCI), and transportation sectors. 45 40 2010 35 2011 30 2012 25 2013 20 15 10 5 0 Electricity RCI Transportation Figure 2: Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMT Co2e) by Sector for 2010 – 2013 9 Trends by sector, Washington and U.S. Nationally, the electricity sector is the largest contributor of greenhouse gases (Figure 3). Since Washington uses hydropower for much of its electricity, the electricity sector is less significant in Washington. The transportation sector is Washington’s most significant contributor of greenhouse gases. 45 2013 WA State 40 2013 US 35 Percent Emissions 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 RCI Transportation Industrial Processes Waste Agriculture Electricity Fossil Fuel Industries Figure 3: Percent Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector – 2013, Washington and U.S. 9 9 Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2013, https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2015-Main-Text.pdf, Table ES2 10 Summary of results by sector Transportation sector Transportation is Washington’s largest greenhouse gas emissions contributor, while electricity is the largest contributor nationally. However, on a per capita basis, Washington produces less onroad motor gasoline and diesel greenhouse gas emissions than the U.S. average (Table 3). Washington greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector have been fairly constant for several years, with a slight decrease in aviation emissions. Table 3: On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions Per Capita, 2013 2013 Population U.S. WA 316,128,839 10 6,971,406 MMT CO2e Motor Gasoline 1,097 11 21.7 MMT CO2e On-Road Diesel 595 7.0 MMT CO2e On-Road Motor Gasoline 3.47 3.11 MMT CO2e On-Road Diesel 1.9 1.0 10 Population data: https://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/2010s/vintage_2013/index.html Go to national tables, annual population estimates, American Fact Finder 11 Annex 2.1 Table A-11: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2015Annexes.pdf 11 25 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 15 10 5 0 Onroad Gasoline Onroad Diesel Marine vessels Jet fuel & Aviation Gasoline Rail Natural Gas, LPG Figure 4: 2010 – 2013 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MMT CO2e) from the Transportation Sector Electricity consumption-based sector Despite the availability of hydroelectricity, Washington also uses electricity from coal and natural gas that is produced in Washington and imported from other states. Figure 1 shows Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions from electricity on a consumption-based (or “loadbased”) approach. In other words, emissions are calculated based on sources that deliver electricity to Washington, regardless of where those sources are located. Emissions have increased from 2012 to 2013 due to: • • Increase in natural gas and coal consumed to generate electricity. Less water available for hydro electricity production. Residential, commercial, and industrial (RCI) sector Greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption in this sector occur when fuels are combusted to provide heat, including space heating and process heating (heating necessary for production processes or other applications). This sector is another large source of greenhouse gas emissions in Washington. In 2013: • • • 11.89 MMT CO2e came from the industrial sector. 5.26 MMT CO2e came from the residential sector. 3.84 MMT CO2e came from the commercial sector. 12 Fossil fuel industry sector This sector includes fugitive greenhouse gas emissions that are released during the production, processing, transmission, and distribution of fossil fuels. These emissions are typically fugitive methane due to leakage and venting from natural gas pipelines, petroleum systems, and coal mining. In 2013, these emissions were about 0.8 percent of Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions. Waste management sector This sector includes greenhouse gas emissions from landfills and wastewater treatment facilities. This inventory does not include waste exported from Washington to other states for disposal. Washington’s 2013 greenhouse gas emissions from this sector are estimated at 3.5 percent of the total emissions. Industrial processes sector This sector includes greenhouse gas emissions from industry-specific processes such as aluminum or cement manufacturing, or fugitive emissions such as sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) releases from electric power transmission and distribution systems. In 2013, greenhouse gas emissions from this sector contributed 5 percent of Washington’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Aluminum production is one of several industrial processes that release greenhouse gas emissions as a product of manufacturing the commodity and separate from the combustion of fuel. The historical emissions data for Washington State managed by EPA contained an error that was in 2008. Specifically, the EPA State Inventory Tool module develops an estimate of aluminum emissions. This estimate is calculated using a ratio of state production capacity to total production. The state capacity was wrong because the capacity of a Washington facility had been left out. This was corrected starting in 2008. Washington’s Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program provided an estimate of annual nitrogen trifluoride emissions. Washington produces small amounts of lime and nitric acid. Although these processes emit greenhouse gases, they are expected to have relatively low emissions due to their low levels of production. This greenhouse gas inventory excludes estimates for these processes. Agriculture sector Agricultural activities such as manure management, fertilizer use, and livestock digestion process (enteric fermentation) result in methane and nitrous oxide emissions. 13 In 2013, these emissions accounted for about 6.25 percent of Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions. Next Steps An annual Washington greenhouse gas inventory will be completed for 2014 and 2015 as EPA releases the State Inventory Tool modules for these years. The next legislative report on Washington Greenhouse Gas Inventory will be issued in December 2018. 14 Conclusion This inventory summarizes the greenhouse gas emissions from specific sectors in Washington from the 1990 baseline through 2013. Key points are: • • • • • Washington’s 2013 total greenhouse gas emissions were 94.4 million metric tons (MMT). Washington’s 2013 total greenhouse gas emissions were 6 MMT higher than the 1990 baseline of 88.4 MMT. Washington’s greenhouse gas emissions declined by about 2.8 percent from 2010 to 2013. However, 2013 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0.8 percent from 2012 levels. Compared to the nation, the electricity sector in Washington contributes significantly less because of the availability of hydropower. In 2013, Washington’s largest contributors of greenhouse gases were: o Transportation sector at 42.8 percent. o Residential, commercial, and industrial sector at 22 percent. o Electricity sector at 19 percent. 15