INTER-OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE

 

 

 

 

.a?73 DATE May 15, 1981
To REFERENCE
Dr. E. E. David, Jr. 
FROM
Henry Shaw C02 Position Statement

 

 

In case the issue comes up at the San Francisco Symposium,
attached is a brief summary of our current position on the C02
Greenhouse effect.

HS:ksc
Attachment

c: R. E. Barnum
C. M. Eidt, Jr.
D. Fiske
L. E. Furlong
H. C. Hayworth
T. K. Kett
P. J. Lucchesi
F. B. Sprow
H. N. Weinberg
G. 0. Wilhelm
M. Held

PRELIMINARY STATEI4ENT OF EXXONIS POSITION ON
THE GROI,{TH OF AT}.4OSPHER] C CARBON DIOXIDE

Position:
There is sufficient time to study the problem before
corrective action is required.
r An indication of the average globa1 temperature increase
due to cO^ wilf not be measurable above normal climatic
f luctuatizons (noise) until about 2000.

Effective energy conservation ancl high price for fossil
fuels over the last few years have now delayeil the projected doubling time of CO" - we estimate now that the
doubling time is about 100-Years.
o This permits time for an orderly transition to non-fossil
fuel technologies should restrictions on fossil fuel use

.

be deemed neCessary.

Synthelics Impact:
There is no reason to stif l-e or halt development of
synthetics industrY.
. Impact of synthetics on doubling time is very sma1l
doubling
U7/yr averlge synthetics growth rate reduces
2010)
in
synthetics
timL- by only 5 years = L5 Mr/D
'
o Coal- Iiquids contribute about 1003 more CO2 than burning
coal diiectly; shale oi1 about 50? more.
Background:

.

Average atmospheric CO, increased 78 since 1957 (3I5 to
338 p!m) . we project 6o, witt reach about 380 'ppm by 2000.

Atmospheric CO. will double in 100 years if fossil fuels
grow at L. 4z/ ai
3oc alobal average temperature rise and 10oc at poles if
co^
z doubles. - Major shifts in rainfal l/agriculture
- Polar ice maY melt

U. S. covernment conducting l-O-year study at 10M$,/a to
reduce large scientific uncertainties and recommend appropriate energy policy.
ER&E contributing to the research effort by monitoring
atmospheric and oceanic CO, from a tanker.