AS GIVEN DR. E. E- DAVID, JR. PRESIDENT, EXXON RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING COMPANY REMARKS AT THE FOURTH ANNUAL EWING SYMPOSIUM TENAFLY, NEW JERSEY OCTOBER 26, 1982 INVENTING THE FUTURE: ENERGY AND THE C02 EFFECT DENNIS GABOR, A WINNER OF THE NOBEL PRIZE FOR PHYSICS, ONCE REMARKED THAT MAN CANNOT PREDICT THE FUTURE, BUT HE CAN INVENT IT- THE POINT IS THAT WHILE WE DO NOT KNOW WITH CERTAINTY HOW THINGS WILL TURN OUT, OUR OWN ACTIONS CAN PLAY A POWERFUL ROLE IN SHAPING THE FUTURE- NATURALLY, GABOR HAD IN MIND THE POWER OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, AND THE MODEL INCLUDES THAT OF CORRECTION OR FEEDBACK- IT IS AN IMPORTANT THOUGHT: MAN DOES NOT HAVE THE GIFT OF PROPHECY- ANY MANAGER OR GOVERNMENT PLANNER WOULD ERR SERIOUSLY BY MASTERMINDING A PLAN BASED UNALTERABLY ON SOME VISION OF THE FUTURE, WITHOUT PROVISION FOR CORRECTION- IT IS ALSO A COMFORTING THOUGHT- NITH NOTORIOUS INABILITY TO CREATE RELIABLE PREDICTIONS ABOUT SUCH MATTERS AS ELECTIONS, STOCK MARKETS, ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AND, OF COURSE, THE WEATHER, IT IS A GREAT CONSOLATION TO FEEL THAT WE CAN STILL RETAIN SOME CONTROL OF THE AS YOU MAY KNOW, EXXON IS A HUNDRED YEARS OLD THIS HE HAVE A LONG CORPORATE MEMORY OF THE VERY PROFOUND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS THAT OUR BUSINESS ACTIVITIES HAVE HELPED BRING ABOUT, AND OF HOW WE AND SOCIETY HAVE HAD TO ADAPT FURTHER IN RESPONSE. THAT INCLUDES THE AT LEAST TEMPORARY RESPITE GIVEN TO THE WHALES THROUGH SUBSTITUTING KEROSENE LIGHTING FUEL FOR THEIR RENDERED AS WELL AS THE REVOLUTIONARY CHANGES WROUGHT BY THE AUTOMOBILE AND OTHER MACHINERY POWERED BY LIQUID HYDROCARBON FUELS- THE PRIMARY FACTORS GUIDING SUCH DEVELOPMENTS WERE TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC MARKETS, THOUGH POLITICAL SYSTEMS ALSO PLAYED THEIR ROLE. SI SIH1 H1IM AWNO 3H1 10M SI NOXX3 GNV 1VH1 NI OSNIV SI A931V813 ONV NMO so EHOS 108 '00 01 ASVH 10N SI d0 GVOHH SSOHDV '80 380103 50 33 O1 ON31 111M 1VH1 33V1830N0 01 SI ASH 3H1 01 9N18013V30NVN H085 3H1 80 '1138 N03 ONV 1138 15083 31X01 SI 31d01 3H1 001 311111 001 $0 3H1 SEAIS N3130 OS 01 HDHVESBH WVIDOS 150M dO 800d 3H1 31V0030VNI A1N3M1 NI 1NVNIHOO 38 01 100 N801 NVD 1VH1 ONVH NVH1 839918 0N 3H1 NO 800013 BSOHL 1N0033V 01NI SNVL MOHENOS 180w A3H1 580N381 1N38503 d0 "338d 33V A3H1 dI 380 031IH11 BAVH SOIEVNEOS SVH SHOOHH ABAHVH SV '833010d dO 838HON d0 NV NO OHSVH ADNESNILNOD dO N31SAS H9003H1 NI 38010d 3H1 1N3ANI 01 SI HEMSNV 3ND ?11 803 38Vd33d 01 EDNVAOV NI 38010j 3H1 01 MOH SBHODBS N3H1 NOI18300 3H1 ?d001 3H1 01NI 11108 SI 383H1 NMOO SNVBUH H31SAS 3H1 AVWBG SNOW H308 SI 383H1 HHEHM 1VH1 SMOHS SWELSAS NOVSOEHJ JO AHOBHL 3H1 1V 3001 SNOW OS 38 AVH d001109 30] 3H1 dO 1V1N3HNOHIAN3 3H1 1VH1 SI WVDILIHD EHL SNIME 1V 9N1AO018 38V 00A 3N0 3H1 SV H303 NOI1V01IS 80d ONIAASILVS NVHL 8831 SI 9N11338803 GNV NI 108 -Z- -3- HHY NE AND OTHERS IN THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY HAVE TAKEN A STRONG INTEREST IN THE ISSUE OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND YOUR NORK. IT IS NHY NE HAVE PARTICIPATED IN SEVERAL INITIATIVES TO PROMOTE YOUR IT IS HHY NE ARE PLEASED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE HOLDING OF THIS SYMPOSIUM AND TO PARTICIPATE HAVE BEGUN OUR ONN MODEST RESEARCH EFFORT IN THE FIELD, MOTIVATED ALSO BY THE BELIEF THAT PERHAPS THE ONLY HAY TO UNDERSTAND A FIELD IS TO DO RESEARCH IN IT- YOU HAVE SEEN SOME OF THE RESULTS IN A PAPER DELIVERED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALSO IN THE PROCESS OF EVALUATING THE DATA ON C02 CONCENTRATIONS COLLECTED OVER Two YEARS BY AN EXXON TANKER PLYING BETNEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF ARABIA. QRGANIZATIOH FEN PEOPLE DOUBT THAT THE WORLD HAS ENTERED AN ENERGY TRANSITION FROM DEPENDENCE UPON FOSSIL FUELS AND TONARD SOME MIX OF RENENABLE RESOURCES THAT WILL NOT POSE PROBLEMS OF C02 ACCUMULATION- THE OUESTION IS HON DO NE GET FROM HERE TO THERE NHILE PRESERVING THE HEALTH OF OUR POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT SYSTEMS- WHAT I NILL DO IN THE REMAINDER OF THIS TALK IS INDICATE HON THE WORLD MAY INVENT A SUCCESSFUL ENERGY FUTURE, USING THE SORT 0F CORRECTIVE FEEDBACK SYSTEM I HAVE MY PERSPECTIVE IS OF COURSE AN EXXON PERSPECTIVE, REFLECTING OUR OWN ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PATHS SOCIETIES HILL PREFER. AND SINCE FOSSIL FUELS, AND LIQUID CHEMICAL FUELS, ARE REALLY THE HEART OF THE ENERGY AND THE C02 PROBLEM, I WILL FOCUS ON THOSE- . 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THEY HAVE SUBSTITUTED OTHER FUELS LIKE COAL AND NUCLEAR FOR PETROLEUM, ALTHOUGH MORE COAL USE DOES JJLBEAEE C02 EMISSIONS. CONSUMERS HAVE ALSO CONSERVED BY TURNING TO MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGIES, INCLUDING SMALLER CARS IN THE U-S- AND THEY HAVE DONE NITHOUT. IT IS DIFFICULT T0 DISENTANGLE THE EFFECTS OF CONSERVATION FROM THE EFFECTS OF RECESSION- ACCORDING To A RECENT REPORT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, THEY ARE ABOUT EQUAL- HE THINK CONSERVATION EFFECTS ARE LARGER, BUT REGARDLESS, ENERGY CONSUMERS HAVE CERTAINLY BROKEN THE RELATIONSHIP BETNEEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION THAT SEEMED TO PREVAIL FOR A OUARTER CENTURY FOLLONING WORLD WAR 11- FOR EXAMPLE, ACCORDING TO THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, IT NON TAKES 16 PERCENT LESS ENERGY AND 26 PERCENT LESS OIL T0 PRODUCE PERCENT MORE OF OUTPUT IN THE NON-COMMUNIST INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES THAN IN 1973. THIS DEVELOPMENT CARRIES GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE C02 BUILDUP. CONSUMERS AND TECHNOLOGISTS HAVE BEEN INVENTING AND APPLYING A WEALTH 0F METHODS TO EXTRACT MORE WORK FROM LESS ENERGY- FOR EXAMPLE, AS ONE OF OUR owN BIGGEST ENERGY CUSTOMERS, NE AT EXXON HAVE STEPPED UP THE EFFICIENCY OF OUR REFINERIES BY TNENTY PERCENT SINCE 1973. BECAUSE REFINING IS SO ENERGY- INTENSIVE, THE ENERGY SAVINGS, AND THE CORRESPONDING REDUCTIONS OF C02 EMISSIONS, HAVE BEEN VERY LARGE INDEED- LAST YEAR THE SAVINGS AMOUNTED TO THE EQUIVALENT OF SOME 28 MILLION BARRELS 0F S3H03NI 83d 010H Ol 13?? d113 0009 1V M039 . 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HONEYER, NE NOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT THE ELECTRIC CAR ONE DAY--PERHAPS INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF HYBRID VEHICLES POHERED BY BATTERIES IN TANDEM NITH SMALL GASOLINE 0R DIESEL ENGINES- ANOTHER ALTERNATIVE FEATURES ELECTRIC QUIDEWAY SYSTEMS IN WHICH VEHICLES USE BATTERIES ON THE FEEDER ROADS AND ELECTRICALLY INDUCED POWER ALONG THE MAIN ARTERIES- BUT THE CAPITAL COSTS OF SUCH A SYSTEM WOULD BE IT A VIABLE OPTION ONLY FOR MUCH RICHER SOCIETIES THAN WE CAN FORESEE- GRANTED, LIOUID ALL CHEMICAL THEIR SHARE OF PROBLEMS- IN BURNING THEY MAY SOME UNFRIENDLY SUCH AS NOX, SOX AND C02. STILL, THERE ARE ALSO PROBLEMS NITH PRODUCING ELECTRICITY THROUGH NON-CHEMICAL MEANS, SUCH AS NUCLEAR POWER- SOLAR VOLTAICS OVERCOME MANY OF THESE DRANBACKS, BUT THE INHERENT PROBLEMS OF THE DUTY CYCLE AND STORAGE MAKE ME SKEPTICAL THAT SOLAR VOLTAICS HILL PENETRATE A LARGE FRACTION OF THE ELECTRICITY MARKET IN THE NEAR FUTURE, EXCEPT IN REMOTE APPLICATIONS- BUT To REITERATE MY MAIN THEME, SUCH ASSUMPTIONS ONLY ACT AS IN DETERMINING NHERE RED MANAGERS CAN MOST USEFULLY CONCENTRATE RESOURCES FOR INYENTING THE FUTURE, SUBUECT To CORRECTION AND FURTHER FEEDBACK- IN ANY CASE NE ARE NOT UP AGAINST FATAL, MALTHUSIAN LIMITS To GRONTH. ON THE DISTANT HORIZON, WE MAY DISCERN A PEAKING 0F PETROLEUM -9- BECAUSE FOR MORE THAN A DECADE THE WORLD HAS BEEN CONSUMING PETROLEUM FASTER THAN THE INDUSTRY HAS BEEN REPLACING IT. BUT REMAINING NON-PETROLEUM FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES ARE IMMENSE- AS AN EXAMPLE, IN 1980 OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION ACCOUNTED FOR NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF THE PRODUCTION OF FOSSIL ENERGY- BUT OIL AND GAS RESERVES ACCOUNT FOR ONLY A LITTLE OVER 11 PERCENT OF THE ESTIMATED TOTAL RECOVERABLE FOSSIL ENERGY RESOURCES- AS A PRACTICAL MATTER, YOU WOULD SURELY AGREE THAT THE WORLD ECONOMY IS COMMITTED TO USING FOSSIL RESOURCES FOR SOME TIME TO COME. THE MASSIVENESS OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN PLACE SIMPLY FORBIDS IMMEDIATE DISPLACEMENT OF ONE FUEL OR ENERGY SOURCE BY ANOTHER- HISTORICAL MARKET STUDIES GOING BACK TO WOOD AND COAL CONFIRM THIS IDEA, SUGGESTING THAT A NEW ENERGY SOURCE REQUIRES ABOUT 50 YEARS TO ACHIEVE JUST HALF THE TOTAL ENERGY MARKET- WHAT ARE PROJECTIONS FOR FOSSIL FUEL OVER THE TWENTY YEARS ENCOMPASSED BY OUR NORMAL OUTLOOK WE ESTIMATE THAT FOSSIL FUEL USE WILL GROW AT THE EQUIVALENT OF ABOUT TWO PERCENT PER YEAR- MUCH OF THIS GROWTH WILL OCCUR IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, AS THEY MODERNIZE THEIR ECONOMIES- BEYOND OUR NORMAL OUTLOOK PERIOD, WE RECENTLY ATTEMPTED A FORECAST OF THE C02 BUILDUP- WE ASSUMED DIFFERENT GROWTH RATES AT DIFFERENT TIMES, BUT WITH AN AVERAGE GROWTH RATE IN FOSSIL FUEL USE OF ABOUT ONE PERCENT A YEAR STARTING TODAY, OUR ESTIMATE IS THAT THE DOUBLING OF ATMOSPHERIC C02 LEVELS MIGHT OCCUR SOMETIME LATE IN THE 218T CENTURY- THAT -10.. INCLUDES THE IMPACTS OF A SYNFUELS INDUSTRY. ASSUMING THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OCCURS, RISING C02 CONCENTRATIONS MIGHT BEGIN TO INDUCE CLIMATIC CHANGES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE 218T CENTURY- MANUFACTURING FUELS HILL PRODUCE MORE C02 THAN CONVENTIONAL PETROLEUM FUELS, BUT THE IMPACT OF SUBSTITUTING FOR DEPLETING PETROLEUM SUPPLIES HILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL- 1F, IN OUR ESTIMATE, HE BACK OUT SYNFUELS, AND REPLACE THEM NITH CONVENTIONAL PETROLEUM FUELS, THE DIFFERENCE IN C02 EMISSIONS HOULD ONLY ADD ABOUT FIVE YEARS To THE DOUBLING TIME. THIS IS A HIGHLY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE, BECAUSE IT ASSUMES THAT INDUSTRY IN THE 218T CENTURY WILL CONTINUE USING TECHNOLOGIES FOR MANUFACTURING SYNFUELS, WITH NO INCREASE IN THE EFFICIENCY OF THESE HIGHLY ENERGY-INTENSIVE PROCESSES- AND IT TAKES NO NOTICE OF THE TRENDS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING TODAY IN THIS BUDDING INFORMATION AGE- AS JOHN PIERCE, THE INVENTOR OF SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS, LIKES TO SAY, SOON HE MAY BE TRAVELING FOR PLEASURE BUT COMMUNICATING TO WORK: SUCH DEVELOPMENTS COULD EVENTUALLY GO VERY FAR IN REDUCING THE ENERGY INTENSITY AND C02 EMISSIONS OF ADVANCED ECONOMIES- Exxon?s RESPONSE AND TECHNOLOGY THE REAL POINT OF THESE EXTRAPOLATIONS IS TO GET AN UNDERSTANDING OF HOW SOON THE PROBLEM MAY BECOME SERIOUS ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ACTION- AND THE LESSON IS WHILE THE ISSUE IS CLEARLY IMPORTANT, WE CAN STILL AFFORD FURTHER RESEARCH ON THE AND THE WORLD WILL HAVE TIME TO ACCUMULATE THE MATERIAL -11.. AND SCIENTIFIC RESOURCES REQUIRED TO CONTEND WITH THE PROBLEM- THE SAME POINT IS EMPHASIZED IN THE ENERGY STUDY PUBLISHED LAST YEAR BY THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, OR IIASA. THE STUDY INVOLVED SOME 150 TOP SCIENTISTS AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER AND REPRESENTS ONE OF THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENTS OF THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 50 CRITICAL YEARS OF NHAT MAY WELL BE IN ABSOLUTE TERMS THE PERIOD OF GREATEST POPULATION GROWTH- THE IIASA STUDY CONCLUDES THAT TO MAKE A SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO AN ENERGY SYSTEM BASED ON RENEWABLE RESOURCES, THE NORLD ECONOMY MUST EXPAND ITS PRODUCTIVE POWERS- IT MUST EXPAND IN ALL DIMENSIONS, BUT, MOST IMPORTANTLY, IN THE NEH KNOHLEDGE AND HUMAN SKILL THAT ENLARGE THE TECHNOLOGICAL BASE- FOR SUCH KNONLEDGE AND SKILL, MORE THAN BRUTE CAPITAL, IS HHAT ENABLES SOCIETIES IN THIS AGE TO USE THE SAME OR EVEN FEWER RESOURCES TO PRODUCE MORE- THE IIASA STRATEGY FOR INVENTING THAT FUTURE RESEMBLES THE ONE I HAVE SUGGESTED: A STRATEGY FIRST, OF GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY GAS AND OIL--TO DIRTIER UNCONVENTIONAL FOSSIL RESOURCES- THE STUDY ALSO TAKES NOTE OF THE C02 ISSUE, RECOMMENDING THAT SOCIETY INCORPORATE SUFFICIENT NON-FOSSIL OPTIONS IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY SYSTEM SO AS TO ALLOW EXPANSION OF THAT BASE, IF NECESSARY, As THE EFFECTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE BECOME BETTER OUANTIFIABLE THROUGH FURTHER RESEARCH- -12- THAT MEANS PURSUING RESEARCH LEADS IN TECHNOLOGIES THAT MAY NOT SEEM ATTRACTIVE BY THE FASHIONABLE STANDARDS OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS. IN A RECENT LANDMARK ARTICLE, PROFESSORS HAYES AND ARERNATHY OF THE HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL NARN STRONGLY AGAINST SUCH FINANCIALLY BIASED PRACTICES IN AMERICAN TRYING TO OUTGUESS THE ECONOMICS OF UNTRIED AND UNTESTED TECHNOLOGICAL APPROACHES CAN BE THE DEATH OF AN INDUSTRY, AND I MIGHT ADD, OF A SOCIETY, TOO- SOME OF THE TOOLS OF THIS EXAMPLE, DISCOUNTED CASH FLON ANALYSIS--ARE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC-I SOMETIMES THEY ARE CALLED THE OF A UNIVERSE- AS I HAVE ALREADY SUGGESTED, ONN R8D PHILOSOPHY DICTATES SEARCHING FOR A DIVERSIFIED 0F SHORT- AND LONG-RANGE TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS. I HAVE ALREADY ALLUDED TO OUR EFFORTS TO BOOST THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF OUR REFINERIES--A HIGHLY IMMEDIATE AND APPARENT NEED TO MANAGEMENT. THIS NEED IS APPARENT EVEN THOUGH OUR RED IN SOME AREAS MAY NOT PAY OUT FOR YEARS--FOR EXAMPLE, IN ADVANCED SEPARATION SYSTEMS THAT DO NOT EMPLOY NORMAL HEAT DISTILLATION TECHNIQUES- ANOTHER OF OUR MAJOR THRUSTS Is IN DEVELOPING MORE VERSATILE TECHNOLOGIES FOR CONVERTING CRUDE RESIDUUMS TO LIGHT TRANSPORTATION FUELS- THE NEED STEMS FROM AN EVIDENT SHIFT OF DEMAND IN THAT DIRECTION AND FROM THE REDUCED OUALITY OF THE AVERAGE CRUDE OIL TODAY- EXXON HAS BEGUN DEPLOYMENT OF AN INNOVATION IN THIS AREA CALLED FLEXICOKING, A PROCESSING THAT CAN CONVERT VIRTUALLY ANY HEAVY CRUDE OR RESIDUUM INTO TRANSPORTATION FUELS AND FUEL GAS. -13.. AS INDUSTRY MOVES DONN TO LOWER OUALITY RESOURCES, THERE IS SYNERGISM BETNEEN SUCH CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES AND OUR EFFORTS TO DEVELOP IMPROVED TECHNOLOGIES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ESTABLISHED OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA AND CANADA, FALLING CRUDE PRICES AND ESCALATING PROJECT COSTS HAVE NIPPED THE FUELS INDUSTRY IN THE BUD. MANY TECHNOLOGIES HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE FAR MORE EXPENSIVE THAN ANYONE THOOGHT. SO PRICE FEEDBACK HAS TOLD US THAT WE MUST USE RED TO BRING CAPITAL AND OPERATING COSTS DEVELOPING TECHNOLOGIES ADAPTABLE TO LOCAL CONDITIONS, RESOURCES, AND MARKETS. IN THE PROCESS, AS I SUGGESTED EARLIER, NE CERTAINLY SUCCEED IN INCREASING THEIR EFFICIENCY AND SO REDUCING ?02 EMISSIONS- IN THE CRUCIAL CONVERSION STEP, MANY OF TECHNOLOGIES OPERATE AT EFFICIENCES IN THE RANGE OF 60 PERCENT. BY THE YEAR 2000 HE SEE POSSIBILITIES FOR STEPPING UP THOSE EFFICIENCIES TO NEARLY 80 PERCENT- AND THIS IS NOT A FUNDAMENTAL LIMIT- EXXON IS WORKING ON A VERY WIDE VARIETY OF OPTIONS, INCLUDING ADVANCED SHALE RETORTING AND DIRECT COAL A CATALYTIC PROCESS FOR PRODUCING METHANE DIRECTLY FROM THE GENERATION OF CU AND HYDROGEN, OR GAS, FROM COAL, LIGNITE, OR REMOTELY LOCATED NATURAL AND THE CONVERSION OF GAS TO FUELS AND CHEMICALS- ON THE FOSSIL FUEL SIDE, EXXON HAS FOR MANY YEARS BEEN DOING RED AIMED AT IMPROVING THE FABRICATION OF NUCLEAR FUEL AND WE HAVE BEEN ONE OF SEVERAL COMPANIES IN THE RACE TO PRODUCE CHEAPER SOLAR VOLTAIC CELLS MADE FROM AMORPHOUS SILICON- THESE EFFORTS SUGGEST PRIMARILY THE EARLY STAGES OF THE TRANSITION- FOR THE LATER STAGES, SOME INTERESTING OPTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO PRESENT THEMSELVES- A PRIME DIFFICULTY WITH RESOURCES IS THEIR HIGH CARBON CONTENT CHEMICALLY, THAT MEANS LON RATIO OF HYDROGEN T0 CARBON. WHILE THE RATIO IS ABOUT FOUR TO ONE IN NATURAL GAS AND 1-8 IN CRUDE OIL, IT IS ONLY ABOUT 1-5 IN OIL SANDS BITUMEN 0R RAW SHALE OIL, AND LESS THAN ONE IN COAL- IN SIMPLE TERMS, A RESULT IS THAT PRODUCING THESE FUELS MEANS GENERATING LARGER AMOUNTS OF C02 THAN T0 PRODUCE COMPARABLE FUELS FROM PETROLEUM- SYNFUELS REQUIRE MORE PROCESSING TO MANUFACTURE AND HENCE MORE PROCESSING HEAT GENERATED BY BURNING PART OF THE RESOURCE- PROMPTED BY CONCERNS ABOUT C02 EMISSIONS, AMONG OTHER THINGS, SOHE PEOPLE HAVE SUGGESTED A HYDROGEN ECONOMY, A FUEL CYCLE BASED ON HYDROGEN GENERATED FROM WATER NOT USING HEAT GENERATED BY FOSSIL FUELS. PERHAPS THERE ARE HAYS TO GENERATE CHEAP HYDROGEN HHICH COULD THEN FEED DIRECTLY INTO A PROCESS. ONE POSSIBLE METHOD HOULD BE TO USE THERMOCHEMICAL PROCESSES To SPLIT HATER, WITH ADVANCED SOLAR COLLECTORS 0R NUCLEAR REACTORS SUPPLYING THE PROCESS HEAT- THE IIASA STUDY NOTES THAT IN MANUFACTURING COAL SUCH A SCHEME HOULD CUT C02 EMISSIONS BY ONE-FOURTH TO ONE-THIRD, COMPARED TO THE USUAL COAL CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES ENVISIONED- IF THEY COULD GENERATE HYDROGEN CHEAPLY, SUCH TECHNOLOGIES NOULD ALSO CUT OVERALL COSTS SHARPLY- FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE Exon DONOR SOLVENT COAL LIOUEFACTION PROCESS, HYDROGEN ACCOUNTS FOR WELL OVER A IHIBD OF OF THE TOTAL COST OF PRODUCING COAL LIQUIDS- SNILHEONODSIG BTLLIW SHOW SI ll 803 80d AllN?l?OddO SI EHBHL GNV SV 113M SV SHOABIUS 80$ 3H1 Oi ANONILSHL SHVEH AHOLSIH 800 $0 HOUSIM 3A11331103 3H1 001 00 I I 0i 3Hl 01 CHEN 111M 3M 39031MONN UNV EHL 0L BNIL BAVH 11118 3M lI Oi N008 30 101 GNV EDNEIDS BAIB '81305 GI0011 01 '8380 NI ASHHNE Oi JIHONODB 0L HAIB 171M SBILSIOOS 'iVHl EZINSOOEH 3M UNV ASHENB 80d NI ~dna11na 303 do Elva 3H1 aav iVHi Aav331v SVH AWONODB a1aon 3H1 'vad 1va1~33 ANV SI N913 0009 .3111na GNV as 01 A13x11 aav asanoa 319NIS 01 A18V8311VNO ALEIDOS 3N0I1n1os GBGNINBELSVH 01 9~10v31 salaaHdoad an 11va3Ao Hovoaddv 3H1 UNV H11V3H 01 $1303 1vnaalx3 '3311110d GNV ?sxaxavw NOHJ 01 Lagrans saHovoaddv 31dIi1nN END 81 NV SNILNBANI HOJ 1338 3H1 'dn H08 01 an Aavww?? -SI- '16? THAT THE PEN NAPS SHOHING THE LIKELY EFFECTS OF GLOBAL NARNING . SEEN TO REVEAL THE THO SUPERPONERS LOSING MUCH OF THE RAINEALL, WITH THE REST OF THE NORLD SEEMINGLY BENEFITTING- AN ACCEPTABLE FUTURE MAY REQUIRE A DEGREE OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION THAT HAS ELUDED OUR GRASP TO DATE- AN EXCEPTION IS OF COURSE SCIENCE ITSELF AND IN PARTICULAR CLINATOLOGY, NHICH EVEN BY THE STANDARDS OF SCIENCE HAS BEEN DISTINGUISHED BY A REMARKABLE DEGREE 0F INTERDISCIPLINARY AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION. AS THE WORLD CONTINUES TO GRAPPLE HITH THE PROFOUND ISSUES POSED BY THE C02 BUILDUP, IT COULD SEEK FEW BETTER MODELS OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION THAN WHAT YOU HAVE ALREADY ACHIEVED-