For immediate release March 29, 2018 March 2018 Franklin & Marshall College Poll SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research Floyd Institute for Public Policy Franklin & Marshall College Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................. 2 KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................... 3 VOTER INTEREST ........................................................................................................... 4 PRESIDENT TRUMP: JOB PERFORMANCE .......................................................................... 4 SENATOR CASEY: JOB PERFORMANCE............................................................................. 6 GOVERNOR WOLF: JOB PERFORMANCE ........................................................................... 6 STATE ISSUES................................................................................................................ 9 METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................... 11 ATTACHMENT A-1....................................................................................................... 12 ATTACHMENT A-2....................................................................................................... 13 ATTACHMENT A-3....................................................................................................... 14 MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT............................................................................ 15 2 Key Findings The March 2018 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that nearly half (48%) of the state’s registered voters are “very interested” in the 2018 mid-term elections; more Democrats (60%) than Republicans (41%) or independents (26%) say they are “very interested.” The current survey shows that more registered voters expect to vote for the Democratic party candidate for the US House in November (42%) than expect to vote for the Republican candidate (35%), but the Democratic candidates’ advantage is much larger, 53% to 30%, among those “very interested” in the election. At the moment, both Governor Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey hold comfortable leads against their Republican challengers, but a large portion of voters are undecided in those races. More than two in five (43%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believe Governor Wolf is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as governor, which is an increase from the September survey (38%). Two in five (37%) registered voters believe Senator Casey is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as the state’s US Senator, which is consistent with his ratings in the September survey. About one in three (30%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as president, which is consistent with his ratings in the September survey. Nearly half (46%) of the state’s registered voters believe the state is “headed in the right direction,” which is the first time since 2009 that more voters chose that option than said the state was “on the wrong track.” Three in five (60%) registered voters believe the state’s congressional districts created after the 2010 census were unfairly drawn. Most registered voters in Pennsylvania strongly favor enhancing the gun background check system (86%), banning assault style weapons (61%), and raising the minimum age to purchase a gun to 21 (59%). 3 Voter Interest Nearly half (48%) of the state’s registered voters say they are “very interested” in the 2018 elections. Voter interest is related to both political party and political ideology. At the moment, more Democrats (60%) than Republicans (41%) or independents (26%) say they are “very interested.” More self-described liberals (60%) than conservatives (47%) or moderates (40%) say they are “very interested.” The outcomes of the 2018 mid-terms will be driven by differences in voter interest if that translates into different turnout rates among partisans. The current survey shows that more registered voters expect to vote for the Democratic party candidate for the US House in November (42%) than expect to vote for the Republican candidate (35%), but the Democratic candidates’ advantage is much larger, 53% to 30%, among those “very interested” in the election. President Trump: Job Performance About one in three (30%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as president, which is consistent with his ratings in the September survey. Figure 1 compares President Trump’s job ratings to President Obama’s job ratings; President Trump’s current rating is below President Obama’s rating in Pennsylvania at a similar point in his Presidency. A majority of Republicans (62%) rate the President’s performance positively, while fewer Democrats (5%) or Independents (25%) do so. Conservatives (70%) are more likely than moderates (16%) or liberals (1%) to give the President positive job approval ratings. 4 Figure 1: Comparison of Presidents?Job Performance Ratings, voters March 2018 How woaid you rate the way that President} is handiing hisjob as President? Wouid you say he is an exceiientjob, a goodjob, oniy afairjob, or a poorjob as President? 10060% Obama 50% - 40% - 30% - 20% Tnuup 10% First Term Second Term Excellent Good Job 0 (El/l} 0 Months in Of?ce Source: Survey conducted March 19? 26, 2018 Cantor lat OPINION RESEARCH Fm HALL COLLEGE Sgih'i'on RESEARCH 5 Senator Casey: Job Performance Two in five (37%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believe Senator Casey is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as the state’s US Senator, which is consistent to his ratings in the September survey. Half (55%) of registered Democrats, one in three (32%) independents, and one in five (17%) Republicans provide positive ratings of the Senator’s job performance. Interestingly, a sizable group of Independents (31%), Republicans (23%), and Democrats (14%) say they “do not know” how they would rate the Senator’s performance. Senator Casey (43%) currently holds a comfortable lead over his Republican challenger, Representative Lou Barletta (25%), although nearly one in three (30%) voters remains undecided. Governor Wolf: Job Performance More than two in five (43%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believe Governor Wolf is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as governor, which is an increase from the September survey (38%). Two in three (63%) Democrats, nearly half (48%) of independents, and one in five (18%) Republicans provide positive ratings of the Governor’s job performance. Governor Wolf’s improved job performance ratings increased because more Democrats (50% in September) and independents (32% in September) rate his performance favorably. Figure 2 compares Governor Wolf’s job performace ratings to his recent predecessors. Wolf’s job performance rating is similar to Governor Rendell’s and better than Governor Corbett’s at similar points during their terms in office. 6 Figure 2: Governor Wolf currently leads all three of his Republican challengers, as Table 1 shows. 1 The Republican candidates performed similarly when matched against Governor Wolf, with each receiving about one in four votes. Still, there are many undecided voters in the race. 1 The Republican candidate in the gubernatorial race was randomly selected so that each respondent was asked only about a single candidate, either Ellsworth, Mango, or Wagner. Randomization checks show that the distribution of respondents into each subgroup were statistically equivalent, meaning there were no difference by party, ideology, race, age, income, or geography. The distribution by gender did differ, with the samples for Ellsworth and Wagner having more females than the sample for Mango. There was no significant difference in the relative performance of the Republican candidates. 7 Table 1: Pen nsyi'voni Gubernatorial Roce: Registered Voters, March 2018 if the EMS eiection for governor were being heio? too'oy and the cono'io'otee inciuo?eo? cono'idote}, the Repuhh'con and Tom Woh? the Democrot}, wouio' you yotefor con o'io'otej, Torn Woifeome other con o?io?ote, or oren ?t you sure how you wouio' yote?I n=143 Torn Wolf 51% Laura Ellsworth 22% Some other candidate 2% Do not know 25% n=143 Torn Wolf 49% Paul Mango 22% Some other candidate 4% Do not know 25% n=137 Torn Wolf 33% Scott Wagner 21% Some other candidate 6% Do not know 35% Source: Survey conducted March 19 26, 2018 Cll??tl? OPINION RESEARCH SFih'i'oN RESEARCH 8 Mil. State Issues Nearly half (46%) of the state’s registered voters believe the state is “headed in the right direction.” As Figure 3 shows, it is the first time since 2009 that more voters chose that option than said the state was “on the wrong track.” More Democrats (52%) than independents (46%) or Republicans (38%) believe the state is “headed in the right direction.” Registered voters mention unemployment and the economy (17%), government and politicians (16%), taxes (15%), crime (10%), education (9%), and an assortment of other issues as being the most important problems facing the state. Figure 3: 9 Three in five (60%) registered voters believe the state’s congressional districts created after the 2010 census were unfairly drawn and most (67%) have heard about the State Supreme Court’s order that the map be re-drawn. Democrats (69%) are most likely to believe the 2010 map was unfairly drawn, but a majority of Republicans (52%) and independents (51%) also believe the map was drawn unfairly. Most registered voters in Pennsylvania strongly favor enhancing the gun background check system (86%), banning assault style weapons (61%), and raising the minimum age to purchase a gun to 21 (59%). There are sizable differences in support for these proposals by party and political ideology. Gun owners are less likely to support these proposals as well, although a majority of gun owners do favor all of the proposals: banning assault weapons (52%), enhanced background checks (86%), and raising the minimum age to purchase a weapon to 21 (58%). 10 Methodology The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 19 – 26, 2018. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of 423 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 201 Democrats, 163 Republicans, and 58 Independents. The sample of registered voters was obtained from L2, formerly Labels & Lists. All sampled respondents were notified by letter about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, ideology, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State and Pennsylvania exit polls. The sample error for this survey is +/- 6.8 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Nonresponse bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions. 11 Attachment A-l Presidential Job Performance: Registered Voters, Pennsyivania, March 2018 How wouio? you rate the way that Donaio? Trump is handiing his job as President? Wouid you say he is going on excel'l'entjoh, a good job, oniy a fairioh, or a poorioh as President? ExcellentiGood FairiPo-or Do not know Party? Republican 52% 35% 2% Democrat 5% 55% Independent or something else 25% 15% Ideology? Liberal 1% 55% Moderate 15% 53% 1% Consertiatiue 15% 25% 1% Gender Male 25% 12% Female 32% 51% 1% IAge* Under 35 12% 55% 35-54 35% 54% Over 55 31% 51% 2% Education" H3 or less 44% 53% 3% Some college 35% 54% College degree 21% 15% Income? Under 35 31% 55% 3% 35-15 35% 15% Over 15 22% 15% Race* White 33% 55% 1% Nonwhite 1% 55% Marital Status" Single. Never Married 15% 51% Married 35% 55% Not currently married 31% 55% 4% Religious A?iliation* Protestant 35% 55% 2% Catholic 35% 52% 1% Other, unaf?liated 15% 51% Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist?r Yes 41% 51% 2% No 25% 14% Region" Philadelphia 5% 55% Northeast 35% 55% 2% Allegheny 21% 13% Southwest 21% 13% Northwest 15% 15% 3% Central 35% 51% Southeast 25% 13% 1% Employment? Fulltime 35% 15% Other 23% 15% 1% Retired 31% 52% 1% pa[1_[15 Source: Survey conducted March 15 25, 2515 3115?s? RESEARCH 12 Attachment A-2 Gabernatorianb Performance: Registered Voters, March 2018 How would you rate the way that Tom Wolf is handling his job a3 Governor? Would you say he is going an excellent job, a good job, only a fal'rjoh, or a poorjoh as Governor? ExcellenttGoo-d FairtPo-or Do Not Know Party? Republican 15% 5% Democrat 53% 31% 5% Independent or something elee 43% 37""1'3 15% Ideology? Liberal 59% 22% 5% Moderate 49% 45% 5% CDHSEWEWE 15% 9% t'ienider??r Male 45% 49% 5% Female 41% 45% 11% Age" Under 35 51% 39% 19% 35-54 35% 53% 12% Over 55 45% 52% 3% Education* H3 or 55% 5% Some college 35% 53% 9% IZollege degree 54% 39% 3% Income Under 35 44% 45% 19% 35-3?5 41% 59% 19% Over T5 59% 45% 5% Race White 43% 59% 5% Nonwhite 55% 39% 12% Status?r Single. Never Married 54% 9% Married 35% 55% 1% Not currently married 45% 41% 5% Religious Affiliation"r F'roteetant 49% 53% Catholic 35% 51% 1% Other. unaf?liated 51% 35% 13% Born Again Christian or FundamentalisF "r?ee 35% 59% 15% No 43"% 43"% 5% Region Philadelphia 51% 42% Northeaet 43% 51% Allegheny 45% 45% 9% Southwest 55% 31% 14% Northweet 29% Central 35% 55% Southeaet 52% 49% 5% Employment? Fulltime 41% 51% 5% IlIiIther 45% 41% 13% Retired 45% 52% 2% p