Chart 1 Sustained Growth exajoules 2% p_a_ 1500' nSurprise nGeoth. 1000 Solar nBiomass nWind lNuclear IHydro 500 It nGas NGL Coal ITrad Bio. 0 f, 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Copyright- Shell International Petroleum Chart 2 Dematerialisation . exajoules 1500?" DSurprise EIGeoth. ESolar EIBiomass 1000 - uWind I Nuclear DGas IOil NGL Coal lTrad Bio. 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Cop yright- Shell International Petroleum Chart 3 Atmospheric Concentration for Total 6029va Resource Use* 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 360 Pronosed Limits Oil Shales Heavy Oil Gas Oil Gas - Conventional Oil Unconventional Gas Oil Gas Note: *Proven plus undiscovered resources at the 50% probability level Source: based on IPCC 1995 SAR and Masters, 1994 Current Coal ?l 25' 20' 15' 0 1 990 Newcomers in Electricity Biomass 3% Wind Market Photovoltaic 8 - 6% Chart 4 1 995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Litres/100 km 20 I USA Improvement in engines 16 New materials 1, Environmental 12 Japa concerns Industry Norway competition 8 a Fz?anr?e\\ 4 - Increased use Of . Switch to accessories 4x4 trucks New 990 2000 201 0 2020 157 Chart 6 CO2 Emissions - Fossil Fuels G-ton 20 - x53?? I $3153? grav?u . g. A I Sustained Growth Dematerialisation 35115 Accelerated Policies 0 I I I 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 21 00 Reference scenario from the 1992 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Copyright- She/l International Petroleum Chart 7 Carbon Intensity of World Primary Energy supp Carbon Intensity of: ton of per toe wood 1.25 1.2 1'1 coal 1.08 1.0 0.9 Oil 0.84 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 source: Global Energy Perspectives to 2050, WEC and IIASA, 1995