The Group Scenarlos are restricted. means that the informat'on In them can be freely shared with staff In Shell and Assaciated Compani?sg but not with third parties. You must apply due diligence to prevent access by third parties. RR290498 9' ma? aatgwy . zit. ok?m?? 1. a \xnw'? 33' 33?? . . gm as ?Hr-*2 22-5? *2 a? .Y.. A ?f.nn.nuu . I..I..54754Mma?mo - Globalisng World man tons Cement Steel Oil demand 1000 - 500 - 2250 900 - 450 - 2000 NICS and 400 700 - 1500 600 1250 500 - 250 - 1000- 400 - 200 - 750- 300 - 150 - Nle and LDCs 5 0- 200 100 - 0 NICS and LDCS 100 RR290498TInaScen2.ppt Source: UnIted NatIons Industrlal Commodlty Statistics, BP StatIstlcal ReVIew of World Energy ?97 22/02/99 74 plendent RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 1 1 9 TINA Comes to Tokyo ?Nempuku is starting t0 allocate maney to perfarmance. That is something new.? Japanese Government Official March 1998 RR290498 3N .. magma Egg wag? Jar/73% . shim asauons Organ and Iggy/9' 5" . ?23215525, ?ms'xm; RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 37 22/02/99 Which Will Shape the World? The New Game - Organisations are increasingly able to learn - Evolution of new global institutions Efficient and transparent global markets RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 59 The . that Didn?t Institutions at work 0 Limits to growth 0 Collapse of China Nuclear war RR290498 2 22222222 From Crashes to Hiccups Peak-trough fall in GDP 1870 -1989 US France Japan ?Nauumzmuu. 4w I wnuumu?zuz ?Havana/=35 Source: Angus Maddison RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 134 5152597555: W, 5,551111111/ . 2m, ?1131);; I rz?g?wx? Egg . 2a 159 RR290498TInaScen2.ppi 22/02/99 Euro and The New Game ursued in heartland abour markets Euro major werld reserve currency as UK rejected RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - Key International Coordination Arrangements in 2020 The New Game 0 International Monetary 9 Internatlonal Court and and Financial Council Arbitratlon System (IMFC) (ICAS) 0 Worid Environment 0 General Agreement on Organisation (WED) Fair Taxation (GAFT) Global Competition 0 World Council on Commission (GCC - Standard Setting formerly WTO) (WCSS) RR290498 - 85m 358%. ?850w .. ?0 0 Own a uczon @535 moSow I 5 I 5 1,71 1/55 5555 111,. . Alli/512,555 In? . [Infill/Ill] ?lzm/M/ Z: I 11111111111111 1/ [11/11/11] 141 ?um? Ill/I; 1 I . Ill/715??; #555555 m; mu 7 131;; 1/ . 1 9" 1 [Ill ?23 mtm??am m?mhw 29me ,2?5 . Inn mwcozacm ?.47 4 .15. I 1/ ?54, xx x: MW 45557? 1 u?,?mmem?Mmmuxuzx Ill Ill/Ill .l/l . i . 0:302 ?9:22 commerce netmarket.com aucnetcom shop at guaranteed lowest prices (autos, books, music etc.) used car auction and rating system . eworldauctionucom narrowllnecom . . onilne auctions of old books, maps, manuscripts net advertismg service energymarket.com lets suppliers of gas and electricity compete for big corporate energy users [Being sued by Enron] Source: Business Week 22/02/99 - 229 Cost of Carbon Permits The New Game $1 tC North America 100 a- . power sectar permits 75 EU permits 6 b, 25 - North - a auto sector 50? 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2005 2010 2015 2020 7v total 100 22/02/99 RR2904981'lnaScen2.ppt 178 nuclear as Renewabes m2. 38am smug? OII Demand lecampcsition The New Game bid 125? 10? I ?Fatal 0 damand 75 50' Economic Iuilldingln ustry efficaency Vehicle effic ency Oil substitut 0n 25' 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 RR290498 /99 Oil Prices $1 bbi The New Game 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 200 Chalenges for :usiness Players the cost leader evelep the capee'ty ?t0 reinvent 9 Learn Strategy 0 Choose the best giebalisaticn mode - Unbundle and manage risk - Find the ?Profit Zone? RR290498 99999 Life Cycles Atomisation 34 - 321;; . 2924?; ply: 93? '2 ?3 .2 42,34?: 3 ?4 ,1 t, ~41. ?k-W A ?n 1" (gag? - 3% ?151* 101,4? J, 4.. - . X. hit/2.39guy.? . 3a.? {Anni-h, phat-413 13534-536. M,g. 3? (1.3.5 . ?2 .. 4? :4 23" vhi?+393 .. .. ?13.34 3.314.344, ?guua'nozu p?v? 4; :In I, 4 3172?: '735311' 934' ?t - ~34 n. (at: bht?l?! . - -r . $2,292 1,2931,(uvzzanqi; . n: 1.0 .421. 1' ?v Known? A - - aunt. #14144 I r? . .. :1 van .NN 941'?? 1' Win-L 3? 46612734.! ht" .m?un? tau? . .w .. n- 1' 36131302 . . 4 - my 1.2? ~v4? an ?52" . -n -- Mn?, HN-G H34 MN 2.2135351?? .. . .. [)2221? ?aaMwun ?yuan?, ?5:553:52? .u 1515.535. 55 m, m, ?:mmx? ?5555:2114; Jill/). I I) - i .vwvv? - 55k ?r?mw15m aim-mm vn?? Mergers Acquisitions 55mm,? mm? mm ,s g, aw awn-u i I ?gm. :2 ?w??unznwuuzmwan I ?um? I ?unauuzunu?my? ?an . ?In? an? n; a .- mm, 555,, mm um? mm, swarm.., mm?mm mm?. . ?mm? mm? mm, 2 . ,ss' 55' ,5 5555:? up,? um? 9* WW ?.uwmuwu ?mm mm.? mm. warms?: ,5?st 5 ?5st '2 ?yuan/?u?. I . . H22 w. )In?lflr ?ppuun?nny.mM nun/u.? ?u I. . ?l .I ?yum.uzrmm? ?mm, m, ?mm,?mnnmum, mm mm mm mymm?mm: a ?writ ?n ?5 (55? 555mamunw m, ?m ?mm? 4555355355553?, ?Iv?nnwlivvn?Mn-N? 221%: 5 WW I $57? (INIINNMI ,m b5" $555,555 59' ($56 mm It I it!? $2264 ifI ifferentiated if i RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 1 61 US. Army a Learning Organ'sation .vn'n - . mversa Lessons Learnt System? (JULLS) 9 SAfter Action Review? culture, notjust process 0 AAR of success as well as failure Leader deveiepment challenge 9 Extensive use of gaming, simulatien, and short-:- term scenarios Source: U. S.Army mm - 3532533?. 3:30 mmnaamn?m? . . Km 1? . ??avhxx ?mkx?nv mE \m 3 1 km 1.x? ?on awn. I EH 0 xx xi xm?xx 35 kauizz . km 3.3. . 2.5.: . . ?x \gmexxv 333:3} Six 1:33 . . a: 32233 i . 8 333 3? \sxx k. mEEmm. gw?wcmw :ow?ugw @525: 5:52 2.5ch mozo?a ?mam . mEEgm tmaxm . . mEEm? OwcmeOE ?wagow . minim?94? cormEgoM?E . ho mEEmwA lav/l1 (7,9,4 - RR290498TInaScen2.ppt Source: Shell OII 22/02/99 a 136 ($201) a?ewmpesap 3303 my? Algpcujuaog .1 peel guewdmaAep unpaid JeeK-euo $110!) ?pumg pea 1uaujdogeAap 1onpo.ld JBQK mm 3: 'r 59 .v 749514,?, a w? ?Hum(33 Baa) dmsuonelm (?an ?a ?.ua'rrw PM (enema suomsod aueugwopJedns JO Bums . . m? m. . mm?. ?mm.mnwmumm, mm I .w (I?ll-fl. ?zu?r?w?f-weu (6)109) ugeqa enleA aqla?euew 2314'; uosguow ?3 @210?me 2934131035 A (330]) a?egu?ixpe 1393 01.2 1533M MVMS imam) a?emmpe 1809 mam 13ml) ?agpowwaa Summary The New Game - New global institutions - Liquid and transparent markets - Kyoto works - Low oil prices RR290498'iinaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 21 7 22/02/99 RR290498TinaScen2.ppt 147 - Identity ty - ?Tailorism? Storms Shocks - DiverSI ?0 . '0 Which Will Shape the World? ?vwwuhuoo ?35 . Suum. 00.00.. mntomao: Dream N358 - mom mom - SEEN u_o mac. . 203.:sz mEmE . mmet Emcm . Em: .. 3:52 956% . 35.520 .nzf .3 n4 1w? 4.51/1 z? Ie? Power . Stormy Weather Peop 204 RR290498TmaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 Storms Lead to New Growth Regeneration Events Fit for purpose again People a few casualties Fit for purpose RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 55 China Argentina 1980~82 .v Mm,? Ch 9 i 5? I: ??ap 1981~83 Japan Venezuela 19942795 Mexico 1995 a .. . Finland 2'2 mm 1 mfg?k? Brazil 1994:95 Sweden 1991 Colombia 1982-87 Mala sia 19 5-88 United States 1984-91 . \Rii 30 a 60 0/0 RR290498TInaScen2.ppt Source: World Bank 22/02/99 - 163 22/02/99 RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 165 Rmaixkai kw?a?a?w ?u?mmi (.ng . man? \??aamv. i?v?a n?wax?x? aw ?t llenni . st?. 55 'ngt ?x - ?E?t?zm mm? uiazz?a?? s. 3 32335:: 3? n3 ?gw?aaw .3 Rana} um Bangs Plus 9a change ?My central objective is not the Euro, but France? Lionel Jospin, Prime Minister of France April 1998 RR290498 growth] yr 16 14? 12*- 10- I N-hm um=In Economic Growth Rates People Power C3 . I AI North America 2010 2015 2020 290498 222222222 The Range of Ethnicity Africa Z. as 5% 3:3 '2206;? A few $5 6? 01$ tribai groups struggling for . the power . Multiple Rival . tribes, Of the centre tribal gm ups none dominant sharing. same space RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 21 3 Indian - Dimensions of Belonging REGION 1998 PARLIAMENT: Regional Allies 71 fif'Tfjl- Congress - 141 Regional Allies National Rich CLASS AIAD others ta 24 A Left parties ., 41 8: Regional Allies 56 Floaters 27 Mus L, Funda- Right mentalist TMC RELIGION High CASTE RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 221 allvalue i ~Pos feedback - .?tm? - :Kj? x51 ?i?kl?k MN \g IGS Technology Network mg udd entrepreneurs Technology start-up compan RR290498 WW 555555555555555555. 5.5 5 5555 555555.555.? 5.5555555555555555. 5 .555 ~55555555555 555 55 555555555555555555555555 55. 5 55555555555555 5.5.55 55 5555555555555 . 5?555 5 5555 55555 5555 2.65- 5555. 55 -5 - - 555 5555555. 5555 55. 555 5 5555 ?55? - v. 5 55. 55. 5555555 555555555555 55555 - 555555555 5555555555555 . 55555 55 55 55 5555555 55 5555555 . 5955555. 5' 55555. 555555555555 - 55 5 >55555 5555 555 '5 w. hmxw. v. sis 5 I :55, 555 55 55 55 55 ?5555 5555555555555.- . 555 5 55555555555 551535 . 55.? 5.55 . .. . 55.5 i3 5 5555 '5 5- 55 55 5555 5.5 ,5 5 555555555 555 5 3v 9 555 55-55555 5555555 55555555555 5 55555555555555, 555555555 55?5.5555555' 5 -5 5555.55. 5 55 55555555455455555wagqu5555 5555 555555555555 555 5 5 555555555555555555555 555 5 55 5 55 55 5 55.55555555555 ?35 .o . 5 ~55 5555 v5555 5555 55 5 5555 555 55555 5555555555 555555 5 5 . 5555555 )5 5 55 -55-5 5 ,5555555555555555555 55.55555555555555555555 -5555. 55. $5,553?? 55 ?5555555555?555555 55555555 - ., 5 . 5.. .555 5 55? 5-555 5513 ?Jo" 3 5. . m. . 5555155555555 m, ?5555., m5, 5555755555, 5? Gift ?eEEvery Sam?cge: Brink; {45339635331 .52 Renigze Ca?fgac?mz 33:31; m??he :75- Fmgmial? SEW-mazes i3 Ha mg Swagger {Sill 3: Tedd?er Samiias- -5 Oil Prices People Power 2000 2005 2010 2015 Challenges for Business People Power Resilience and reputation Empowered front-line entrepreneurs Leadership that supports and encourages Powerful and useful core purpose Ina 222222222 Does Size Matter? 80 1977 return on sales ?exmw Revenue (bln . Source: Mercer Management Consulting 1994 return on sales 8 @emmea 4O 80 120 160 Revenue (bln RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 1 97 Can I save my customers money in meetingtheir customers? requirements? What will customers want and be writing to pay for? V4. ?1 RR290498T?InaScen2.ppt Source: Slywotzky, ?The Profit Zone? 22/02/99 - 72 ?Tailorism? People Power Appropriate solutions for individual customers 90498TnaScen2.ppt 2 02/99 - 219 SouthWest Airlmes? Activity System The Value . . . RR290498T 2. Source: What is Strategy? Michael Porter, Harvard Busmess Revuew 22222222 "?83 cen1%?07 A New Organisational Model People Power Source: Ghoshal Bartlett Purpose - defines space Process - roles and relationships People - key corporate assets RR290498 99 - Summary People Power Flowering of diversity Institutional obsolescence Energy growth and saturation Volatillty RR290498TInaScen2.ppt 22/02/99 - 216 The New Game New global institutions Liquid and transparent markets Kyoto works Low oil prices People Power Flowering of diversity - Institutional obsolescence - Energy growth and saturation - Volatility Success Breeds Success Ratios of market capitalisation to sales 20 6 1O Microsoft Intel . Coca Cola (18X) (5-730 (8.9X) 9 Southwest Air (1.6x) in Oracle Texas (5.3x) Instruments . Novell (1.9x) Peps'?? [2 Ix) (1.7x) British Airways (0.8x) (0.7x) RR290498