COUNTY OF SACRAMENTO CALIFORNIA For the Agenda of: February 6, 2018 Timed: 9:45 A.M. To: Board of Supervisors From: Department of Waste Management and Recycling Subject: State Of The County’s Single Stream Recycling Program Supervisorial District(s): All Contact: Doug Kobold, Waste Management Program Manager, 875-7087 Overview At its meeting on October 31, 2017, the Board of Supervisors requested staff from the Department of Waste Management & Recycling (DWMR) to report back with an update on the County’s single stream recycling (SSR) program. The report was to include an update on the current and future processing and market conditions for SSR material and be presented to the Board before the release of any new Request for Proposals (RFP) for the processing of SSR material. Recommendation Receive and file this report. Measures/Evaluation None. Fiscal Impact In the past, DWMR has realized up to $1.2 million (MM) per year in revenues through its SSR material processing contracts. With changes in the recycled materials commodities markets, the processing of SSR material is now a net cost to DWMR of approximately $1.9MM as estimated for Calendar Year 2018. This includes approximately $800,000 in additional costs to reduce contamination in the SSR material stream. BACKGROUND In April 1968, the County began collection operations for approximately 55,000 residential customers in the unincorporated area of the county. In 2017, DWMR provided curbside collection services to approximately 151,000 households, with another approximately 5,000 households serviced by Central Valley Waste Services under contract to the County for residences located south of Calvine Road. Those residents south of Calvine Road received functionally identical services to those serviced by DWMR. State Of The County’s Single Stream Recycling Program Page 2 With the passage of Assembly Bill (AB) 939 in 1989, emphasis was placed on recycling in order for the County to reach the State mandate of 25% diversion from landfill by 1995 and 50% by 2000. DWMR began collecting recyclables at the curb in 1990 with implementation of a threebin curbside recycling program. Additional efforts were needed to meet the next level of 50%, so by 1997 DWMR began collecting green waste separately at the curb and in 1998, the three-bin curbside recycling program was replaced by the SSR program. By changing to the SSR program from three-bin, the collected tonnage increased from approximately 30,000 tons per year to nearly 60,000 tons per year by the year 2000. Green waste collection in 2000 exceeded 80,000 tons per year. These programs, combined with other diversion efforts at the County facilities, resulted in the County exceeding the State mandated 50% diversion in 2000. Details of DWMR’s recycling programs are provided in the attached presentation. The evolution of significant programs is described in the following section. The first SSR material processing contract (Agreement No. 70147) was awarded to California Waste Solutions, Inc. (CWS) of Oakland, California through a competitive RFP process with service initiating in April 1998. That contract was based on recycling commodities market indexes and a set processing fee. The annual value of this contract ranged from a cost to DWMR of approximately $127,000 during 1998 to a high revenue to DWMR of approximately $1,596,000 in 2004 and a similar revenue in 2005. Table 1. SSR Material Values April 1998 – March 2006 (Indexed Pricing) Apr 1-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Mar 1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Processed Tonnage 12,568 46,702 57,112 56,819 56,344 60,812 60,982 57,192 6,778 Contamination % 14.88% 23.74% 19.71% 24.18% 23.65% 23.92% 23.92% 23.92% 23.92% Net Revenue/(Cost) ($127,176) $41,853 $1,141,882 $253,889 $636,673 $680,590 $1,595,699 $1,592,340 $180,342 Unit Revenue/(Cost) ($10.12) $0.90 $19.99 $4.47 $11.30 $11.19 $26.17 $27.84 $26.61 Due to the significant volatility of the market-priced structure of the SSR material processing contract, in 2005 DWMR structured new recycling contracts based on a guaranteed value per ton with only adjustments in unit value for California Redemption Value (CRV) changes or SSR material composition. Table 2, below, reflects the changes in the unit revenue during that time frame. Table 2. SSR Material Values March 2006 – February 2013 (Fixed Pricing) Processed Tonnage Mar 2-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec 2006 2007 2008 41,081 44,611 42,086 Contamination % 10.00% (Assumed) 19.48% 19.38% Net Revenue/(Cost) $818,698 $1,298,372 $1,001,842 Unit Revenue/(Cost) $19.93 $29.10 $23.80 State Of The County’s Single Stream Recycling Program Page 3 Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Feb 28 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 39,686 38,739 37,463 36,936 6,393 19.59% 19.59% 19.59% 19.59% 19.59% $835,814 $727,034 $564,400 $593,466 $92,353 $21.06 $18.77 $15.07 $16.07 $14.45 The unit revenue evenue in 2006 shown above is lower than 2007 due to spot market sales of SSR material generated from the North Area during a period when no long long-term term contract was in place for that March – December 2006 time period. The value reflected in 2007 is more representative of that point in time. The primary reason for the continued drop in unit revenue evenue from 2007 to 2013 was changes in the CRV initiated by the State. Following careful consideration of market trends, in 2012 DWMR returned to the market-based type of contract based on favorable financial projections projections. Figure 1, shown on the next page, pa also attached as Attachment 1 to this report, reflects market trends that occurred between the August 2006 RFP and the May 2012 RFP. Those values are representative of the domestic market value for each commodity. This domestic value index has been used for DWMR’s various market based SSR material processing contracts. Figure 1: History of Paper Commodity Values (Domestic Markets) and SSR Pricing While the individual domestic values have fluctuated quite a bit, the processors of the SSR material typically sell their recycled commodities on the export market.. Figure 2, shown on the next page,, reflects the commodity values for both export and domestic markets. markets This graph is also included in the presentation associated with this report. For the export market, market the values State Of The County’s Single Stream Recycling Program Page 4 for cardboard (Old Corrugated Containers or “OCC”) ((light fuchsia color line) have tended to rise as reflected by the trend line shown. However, for the domestic market,, OCC has trended down as shown by the dark fuchsia li lines. nes. OCC tends to represent ~36% of the total paper type materials found in the County’s SSR Material. Other export trends for mixed paper (~46% of the paper materials) and sorted papers (~18%) have tended to remain flat as shown by the light green and light ight blue lines in Figure 2. However, like OCC for the domestic market, market both mixed paper and sorted papers have trended down (dark green and dark blue lines). With the exception of mixed paper which recently has declined fairly significantly on the exportt market, market the export values for OCC and sorted papers have fluctuated lately, but remain within normal tolerances of the market trend for those materials. Figure 2:: Paper Commodity Values History (Export vs. Domestic Markets) Table 3,, below, reflects the fluctuations in net revenue and unit revenue to DWMR from March 1, 2013 through December 31, 2017. DWMR received net positive revenue from the SSR material until October 2017. Due to changes in the market conditions for recyclable commodities, ommodities, the value of the SSR material is now a net negative value to DWMR. DWMR This issue will be discussed in more detail under the Discussion section of this report. Table 3.. SSR Material Values March 2013 – December 2017 (Indexed Pricing) Mar 1-Dec Jan-Dec 2013 2014 Processed ed Tonnage 30,043 36,860 Contamination % 24.48% 24.48% Net Revenue/(Cost) $991,585 $1,124,823 Unit Revenue/(Cost) Revenue/ $33.11 $30.52 State Of The County’s Single Stream Recycling Program Page 5 Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec 2015 2016 2017 36,713 38,083 37,921 24.48% 24.48% 24.48% $771,252 $869,629 $866,207 $21.01 $22.84 $22.84 DISCUSSION As noted earlier, the value from the processed SSR materials has fluctuated significantly since April 1998. Figure 3,, below, reflects the Revenues/(Costs) to the County since the first contract with CWS in 1998. Figure 3: Annual Revenue/(Cost) History While the net value of the SSR material year-to-year year has been positive, with the exception of 1998, a significant fluctuation in value occurred in September 2017 that resulted in termination of the DWMR contracts in place at that time and impacted pricing of new contracts that were executed to make up the shortfall in capacity capacity.. With the early termination of Agreement No. 70628 with Sacramento Recycling & Transfer Station (SRTS), effective Sep September tember 12, 2017, the unit value decreased from $33.74/ton revenue to DWMR under that contract to $32.64/ton cost to DWMR under a new short--term contract, a fluctuation of $66.38/ton. This represented approximately 1,200 tons per month of SSR material collected ected in the South Area. Due to the lack of available processing capacity as determined by DWMR staff, a second short-term short State Of The County’s Single Stream Recycling Program Page 6 contract was also executed with California Waste Recovery Systems (CWRS) that also began on September 13, 2017 and has ranged in val value from $0.68/ton revenue to DWMR in September to negative values (cost to DWMR DWMR)) of ($19.77)/ton, ($8.55)/ton, ($9.66)/ton for the months of October, November, and December 2017, respectively. Agreement No. 70629 with Recycling Industries (RI) was amended effective November 1, 2017 to reflect a cost to DWMR of ($35.00)/ton /ton for 1,000 tons per month for November and December 2017. This retroactive amendment was approved by the Board on December 12, 2017. In October, prior to adjustments in the contract thatt resulted in a cost to DWMR DWMR, the RI contract had a value of $15.00/ton representative of the Floor Pricing included in that contract. The Market Value without that Floor Pricing would have been a cost to DWMR of $1.12/ton. Agreement No. 70629 with RI was terminated effective December 31, 2017. DWMR has also contracted with another SSR material processor, Green Waste Recovery (GWR) of San Jose Jose, to process material since October 2017. The cost to DWMR for material sent to GWR has averaged $37.21/ton. Figure Fig 4, below, reflects the changing value of the SSR Material during 2017. Figure 4: Monthly Revenue/(Cost) for 2017 Based on 2017 tonnage data and the costs for October, November, & December 2017, DWMR staff estimates the processing cost of SSR material in calendar year 2018 may total as much as $1.1MM. State Of The County’s Single Stream Recycling Program Page 7 The primary cause for the change in market conditions has been the effects of the implementation of the “National Sword” policy by the Chinese government. In June 2017, DWMR staff learned of the “Environmental Protection Control Standard For Imported Solid Wastes As Raw Materials – Waste And Scrap Of Paper Or Cardboard” issued by the State Environmental Protection Administration of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on December 14, 2005 with an implementation date of February 1, 2006. This national standard, which is commonly referred to as the “National Sword” within the recycling industry, requires that certain contaminates (trash) constitute no more than 1.5%, by weight, of segregated and baled recyclable commodities, specifically imported waste paper. While National Sword was issued in 2005, there was very little to no enforcement by the PRC until 2013, when it enacted “Operation Green Fence.” This 2013 action by the PRC was an attempt to reduce the amount of contaminants found in recycled material bales being imported by recyclers into China, especially those originating from the United States. By 2014, however, the PRC had relaxed enforcement of Operation Green Fence on the assumption that the recycling industry would continue, on its own, to reduce the amount of trash included in these bales of recyclable materials. As a result of inaction by the recycling industry to reduce the trash in the bales following Operation Green Fence, the PRC once again stepped up enforcement action by implementing “National Sword 2017.” This latest action began on March 1, 2017 and is continuing today. Under National Sword 2017, PRC customs officials have increased inspections of imported recyclable materials, focusing on the quality of waste paper and plastics. Along with representatives of brokering companies handling the sales of baled recyclable commodities, they have also been conducting inspections of finished bales at the actual recycling facilities in the United States, especially on the West Coast, to determine if the 1.5% standard contained in the National Sword policy is being met. Based on research by DWMR staff and other experts in the recycling industry, this standard can be met by using the proper equipment and processing methods for recycling. Slowing of the processing lines is one of the methods used to improve extraction of contaminants from the SSR material; however, slowing of the processing lines increases the unit cost for processing, thereby lowering the net value of the SSR material. On December 29, 2017, the PRC issued an amendment to its 2005 scrap import standards revising the 1.5% maximum contamination standard to a 0.5% maximum standard, which will take effect March 1, 2018. As a result of this action taken by the PRC, the domestic processing industry has begun to take actions of its own. To meet this low contamination standard, processors have had to drastically change how they process SSR material, such as slowing down their processing lines, which in turn has force them to limit the amount of SSR material they are willing to accept. Further, they are also beginning to limit the level of contamination in the SSR material they receive at their facilities. It is the understanding of DWMR staff that some cities in California with contamination rates of 50% or more in their SSR material have been completely cut-off from processing by their normal processors. They have been told that there is no price by which the cities can pay to have those highly contaminated materials processed. Processors are now beginning to require 10% or less contamination in the SSR material they are willing to receive. DWMR’s current average level of contamination is 25%. In an effort to increase the value and acceptability of DWMR’s SSR material to local processors, DWMR has embarked upon a Curbside Enhancement Program. This program is designed to increase the use of various media types to convey messages regarding the SSR material program; to increase the customer interface with DWMR staff to better educate the County residents on State Of The County’s Single Stream Recycling Program Page 8 what is acceptable in the SSR program; to take immediate steps to inspect for contamination of SSR material in curbside containers placed out by the residents for collection; and to develop pilot programs to determine the best method(s) to achieve a goal of less than 10% contamination in the County’s SSR material, consistent with expectations of processors. Currently, DWMR’s SSR material is being processed under several short-term contracts for processing as discussed above. DWMR staff may be releasing a new RFP during March or April 2018 for one or more long-term contracts with the following provisions: no floor pricing; allow for an adjustment to the processing unit costs, include a seven to ten year contractual commitment, and pricing based on the export market indexes. DWMR staff learned that the floor pricing in the previous contracts represented too much risk in the current condition of the commodities market. Further, with a long-term contract, the contractors were assuming more risk than they were comfortable with due to potential changes in labor and equipment costs over the life of the contract. Finally, changing the market value basis from the Domestic Market Index to the Export Market Index will be more representative of the actual markets that most processors use to sell the commodities they extract from the SSR material. The changes that have resulted in the market value of the DWMR’s SSR material are significant, fluctuating from an approximate $1.2MM/year revenue to an estimated $1.1MM/year cost, plus an estimated $330,000/year for increased public outreach and another estimated $500,000/year for contamination enforcement. This results in a shift of approximately $3.1MM/year, or approximately $1.67/household/month in additional costs for the SSR material program. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS The County will experience a shift in costs for the processing of SSR Material in 2018 estimated at $3.1MM/year or approximately $1.67/household/month due to current conditions of SSR material processing and marketing. This situation may improve, but is substantially dependent upon changes in the export market for recycled commodities throughout 2018 and beyond. Respectfully submitted, DOUGLAS SLOAN, Director Department of Waste Management and Recycling APPROVED: NAVDEEP S. GILL County Executive By: MICHAEL J. PENROSE, Deputy County Executive Attachments: Attachment 1 – Market Value Trends for Single Stream Recyclables