MEMORANDUM
TO:
FR:
RE:
DT:

Interested Parties
Not One Penny & Clarity Campaign Labs
CASE STUDY: The Toxic TrumpTax
April 11, 2018

In Iowa’s 1​st​ Congressional district, Not One Penny (NOP) has run a sustained media campaign
against Congressman Rod Blum for his support of the TrumpTax. The campaign began last fall
and has had a significant impact on voters in this district thus far according to new survey results.
The TrumpTax was toxic to these voters and the more that they heard about what Blum voted
for, the less they approved of his position and approved of him. Indeed, since August of 2017,
this barrage of messaging has led to a 21 point drop in Blum’s favorability among Independent
voters in his district. The results in IA-01 demonstrate clearly that progressives can and should
make Republican support for the TrumpTax a central element of their critique of sitting members
of Congress
BACKGROUND ON IA-01
The district is the quintessential “Obama-Trump” district, supporting Donald Trump in 2016 by
3.5 points (48.7% - 45.2%) despite supporting Barack Obama in 2012 by 13.7 points (56.2% –
42.5%). The 17.2% swing is one of the largest in the country.
THE CAMPAIGN
From October through today, NOP has been on air consistently (with a short gap over the winter
holidays), educating voters about the tax bill during the legislative fight and running
accountability ads following Blum’s vote for the TrumpTax. Coupled with significant grassroots
activity in the district, including well-attened stops from the NOP Repeal the TrumpTax Tour,
this communication has served as a constant reminder to Iowans about the true impacts of the
GOP plan.
NOP ran 5 ads in the Cedar Rapids media market – two in late 2017 and 3 since January 6​th​ . The
campaign spending totalled over $410,000, putting 5500 Gross Ratings Points behind the
campaign. NOP continues to be on air and has continued to spend in IA01 since the March poll.
Not One Penny More​. This ad exposes the early facts about the tax plan during the
legislative debate.

 Blum Deal​. This ad showcases how Blum and millionaires like him benefit from the plan
they were approving.
Happy New Year​. This tells the overall story about the bill and Blum’s vote for it.
Pie​. A humorous treatment on how unfair the TrumpTax is.
Nurse​. An emotional treatment on how the TrumpTax makes the economy skewed even
more in favor of the wealthy.
Along with the paid advertising, there has been both significant grassroots activity and earned
media campaigns to help educate voters about the negative impacts of both bills. While taxes has
been the priority for our communication, other groups like our coalition member Keep Iowa
Healthy have organized and advertised on other issues in this district during the time period,
particularly highlighting Blum’s support for health care repeal. The totality of communication
against Blum has done significant damage, and the NOP campaign has found particular salience
among Iowans in defining the tax plan.
SO WHAT’S HAPPENED: THE RESULTS
Pre and post-advertising surveys conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs show voters in this
district have learned about the damage the GOP tax plan does, and have changed their views on
Congressman Blum due to his support for the law.
Over the course of the campaign, Blum's unfavorable margin has doubled: from -10 (24 percent
– 34 percent) in August 2017 to -19 in March 2018 (22 percent – 41 percent).
● Among pure independent voters, the trend is even more profound: Blum’s unfavorable
margin has gone from -9 (21 percent – 30 percent) in August 2017 to -30 (13 percent – 43
percent) in March 2018 as voters have learned about his positions..
This movement is clearly driven by voter awareness of his position on the tax plan and the
damage that it will do to working families in Iowa.
● Blum’s actions on taxes started with a
net disapproval rating of -11 in August
2017 (17 percent – 28 percent) which
has worsened to -23 today (17 percent –
40 percent). Voters in IA-01 now
oppose the tax plan itself by -12 (32
percent – 44 percent) up from only -6 at
the start (30 percent – 36 percent).
● While the national GOP group’s
promoting the law coupled with a
sustained corporate PR campaign in
support have stabilized the national
numbers for the plan, the results in IA-01 prove that progressive can win this argument if

 we make it. While nationally, the tax law’s favorability improved somewhat, it continued
to get worse in Eastern Iowa.
The surveys conducted in August 2017 and March 2018 were within the Cedar Rapids media
market (which makes up 86% of IA-01). Surveys were conducted by live callers to a mix of
landlines and cell phones to randomly selected voters, and sampled and weighted to reflect the
registered voting population of the district within the Cedar Rapids media market. The August
survey’s sample size was 807, and the March survey’s sample size was 806, with each having a
margin of error of +/- 3.3% at a 95% confidence interval.
CONCLUSION
In this quintessential swing district, it’s clear that the more voters learn about Republicans’
support of the TrumpTax, the more voters will reject the Republican incumbent for voting to
support them. The evidence makes clear progressives can, and will, win this argument if we
make it.
The more we make voters aware that Republicans in Congress voted for the TrumpTax, the
better off we will do. Voters reject these massive tax breaks to the wealthy and the
well-connected at the expense of people who work for a living.