:13. (3 X5 4- 29,101 people a! 15Estimating temporary populations – the power of aggregated mobile device data Andrew Howe, Tricia Chester Australian Coastal Councils Conference Redcliffe, 5 May 2017 Population estimates Official population measure – ERP • based on usual residence Is ERP relevant? • regional populations vary – monthly, weekly, daily, hourly • numbers and characteristics (age/sex) vary ERP frequency and timeliness Temporary population estimates • major data gap Solution? • mobile device user data (aggregated & anonymised) Pilot study – hourly population estimates Trial engagement with telco company Australian Capital Region • ACT and surrounds Geography: SA2s • ACT suburbs, town centres • NSW towns & regions Age (18+) and sex breakdown Hourly – around the clock 18 April to 1 May 2016 Method Hourly location data builds as mobile device users connect Account for: • multiple connections in hour • no connection in past hour • up to 24 hours previous Users weighted and projected to actual population, based on: • SA2 of residence • age (18+) • sex Method Hourly location data builds as mobile device users connect Account for: • multiple connections in hour • no connection in past hour • up to 24 hours previous Users weighted and projected to actual population, based on: • SA2 of residence • age (18+) • sex Weighted (anonymised) counts allocated to surrounding areas Method Weighted & projected population, 12pm 11am 10am 6pm 5pm 4pm 3pm 2pm 1pm 9am 8am 7am 6am Lowest Highest 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Customer counts by hour, Weekdays Weekends Public holidays 0 1 2 Sun 03/20/2016 Tue 03/29/2016 Tue 04/05/2016 Tue 04/12/2016 Tue 04/19/2016 Wed 04/2 7/2016 Wed 05/05/2016 3 4 5 Mon 03/21/2016 Wed 03/3 0/2016 Wed 04/06/2016 Wed 04/13/2016 Wed 04/20/2016 Thu 04/28/2016 ?Thu 05/05/2016 7 8 9 Wed 03/2 3/2016 Thu 03/31/2016 Thu 04/07/2016 Thu 04/14/2016 Thu 04/21/2016 . 6/2016 VV East Melbourne, March?May 2016 10 11 12 ?Thu 03/24/2016 Fr104/01/2016 moans/2016 $3 04/23/2016 $3 04/30/2016 Sa 05/07/2016 03/26/2016 Sa 04/02/2016 Sat 04/09/2016 - Sa 04/16/2016 Sun 04/24/2016 . . . . . - Sun 05/01/2016 Sun 05/08/2016 Sun 03/27/2 016 Sun 04/03/2016 . - . . . . Sun 04/10/2016 Sun 05/17/2 016 Mon 04/25/2016 Mon 05/02/2016 20 21 22 Mon 034/28/2016 Mon 05/04/2016 Mon 04/11/2016 Mon 04/18/2016 Tue 04/26/2016 ?Tue 05/03/2016 Validation Weighted and projected counts by hour, East Melbourne, weekdays 1 April 2016@1950 Collingwood v Richmond Crowd: 72,761 24 March 2016@1920 Richmond v Carlton Crowd: 75,706 70000 50000 30000 20000 10000 I Weighted and projected counts by hour, East Melbourne, weekends ?Sun 03/20/2016 ?Sun 04/10/2016 ?Sun 05/01/2016 28 March2016@1520 25 April 2016@1520 Collingwood Essendon Crowd: 85,082 Geelong Hawthorn Crowd: 74,218 02 April 2016@1410 Essendon Melbourne Crowd: 50,424 16 April 2016@1345 Crowd: 47,723 Essendon vGeelong 26 March 2016@1340 Melbourne GWS Giants Crowd: 28,505 11 Sa 03/26/2016 Sun 03/27/201 ?Sa 04/16/2016 04/17/201 Sat 05/07/2016 Sun 05/08/201 12 13 14. 15 6 531 04/02/2016 6 Sat 04/23/2016 6 Mon 03/28/2016 01 May 2016@1520 Carlton Essendon Crowd 43,827 17 April 2016 @1520 Collingwood Melbourne Crowd: 47,558 24 April 2016@1910 Melbournev Richmond Crowd: 59,968 A 30 April 2016@1925 Richmond Port Adelaide Crowd: 27,077 ?Sun 04/03/2 016 53 04/09/2016 ?Sun 04/24/2016 Sat 04/30/2016 Mon 06/25/2016 April 2016 (Pilot study period) Mon Tues Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 School holidays 25 ANZAC day 26 27 Long weekend - 26 Normal working days 29 30 1 Normal weekend .9. ?rm? MSW Australian Bureau of Statistics GP?ftWollongong Batemans Bay Merimbula Tu ra Beach Pilot study data Hourly Population Estimates, Australian Capital Region Mon 18 April - Sun 1 May 520 Population ('000) 510 500 490 480 470 460 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May School holidays Long wkend Normal weekdays & wkend ACT v NSW surrounds 290 230 285 225 280 220 275 215 270 210 265 205 260 200 255 195 250 190 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm ACT 2pm 4pm NSW surrounds 6pm 8pm 10pm NSW Population ('000) ACT Population ('000) Hourly Population Estimates, ACT vs NSW surrounds Tuesday 19 April Bureau of Statistics Dem?; Fi0116le '1 r. . . . . Molndka.? .32Ih'gfk lJnree'sity 0? Carme'ra, Brace (Tarnms 4? 1? I?m! mm (H. Nd'alh" LI w, .: AL: Weekday populations Hourly Population Estimates, Belconnen Town Centre Mon 18 April – Fri 22 April 11000 10000 Population 9000 Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 8000 Wed 20/04 Thu 21/04 7000 Fri 22/04 6000 ERP 5000 4000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Australian Bureau of Statistics Denny S. 5 IF . A r. ly/I. {fl .1 0 "o ?/49 Ix ?4 .23 x7 :11? 11% a s. ?f 1f; DUBIBD I (z-rj'lir-g, I Mariam.?1 \J-?mfy6.3.5Sombuck CragL?s. .- I. Unwe'sny Ir), 0? Canberra. 5 Bruce Campus {3 9 BImbImble ?00? . 'k '0 . . ALS Name neserve Ir?smuie Fm (/Nat-.116? ii Weekday populations Belconnen Town Centre, Mon to Fri Scullin, Mon to Fri 2000 11000 1800 10000 1600 9000 1400 8000 1200 7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Weekday populations Belconnen Region, 12 am Belconnen Region, 12 pm Scullin Bruce Belconnen Town Centre Weekend populations Belconnen, Monday - Sunday Scullin, Monday - Sunday 2000 11000 1800 10000 1600 9000 1400 8000 1200 7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Weekend populations Hourly Population Estimates, Batemans Bay Mon 18 April – Sun 24 April 11000 10500 10000 Mon 18/04 Tue 19/04 Population 9500 Wed 20/04 9000 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 8500 Sat 23/04 8000 Sun 24/04 7500 7000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm ?Aauwupw Bureau of 55tiiti!iti??s DON ..I I- I. rwr.,. '3 . I Iva. Event populations - Bruce Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce SA2 Mon 18 – Sat 23 April 10000 9000 Raiders v Tigers Mon 18/04 Population 8000 Tue 19/04 Wed 20/04 7000 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 6000 Sat 23/04 5000 4000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Event populations - Bruce Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce SA2 Sat 23 April, by Sex 5500 5000 Population 4500 4000 Males Females 3500 3000 2500 2000 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Event populations - Bruce Hourly Population Estimates, Bruce Mon 18 – Sun 24 April 18000 Groovin the Moo (15,000 attendees) 16000 14000 Mon 18/04 Population 12000 Tue 19/04 10000 Wed 20/04 8000 Thu 21/04 Fri 22/04 6000 Sat 23/04 Sun 24/04 4000 2000 0 12am 2am 4am 6am 8am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 8pm 10pm Seachange area populations Hourly Population Estimates, NSW Coast Mon 18 April – Sun 1 May 55 Population (‘000) 50 45 40 35 30 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May School holidays Long wkend Normal weekdays & wkend Seachange area populations Midday population, NSW Coast By age, peak v non-peak times 65+ 55–64 Age 45–54 35–44 Fri 29-Apr (non-peak) Sun 24-Apr (peak) 25–34 18–24 0 10 Population (‘000) 20 Conclusion Very promising results from pilot study • Estimates based on this anonymised and aggregated data look good demographically • Could fill the temporary population data gap Uses for these hourly population estimates – lots! • • • • Planning and service provision CBDs, mining regions, tourist destinations Disaster preparedness Funding models etc Future directions Short term • ABS Information paper, released in 2017 • Peer review and promote internationally Long term • Continuing discussions around future plans Statistics Census release schedule 2017 11 April 2017 7 ?April Typical Australian profiles - national and state/territory Statistics Community Enter a location pro?le Quick StatsSearch (It, a Queens and Stat-:- 3] Redcliffe (Qld) a Cod-:- ?3'313313'33 - 0 People 9.201 Male 4 413 Female 4 .788 Median age 4.1 .. 0 Families 2.425 Average children per family 1 7 iiRIisr-u ll?t? Redchfe All private dwellings 4.976 Average people per household 2 1 Median weekly household income 8882 Median mortgage repayments $1 733 Median weekly rent 82.70 Average motor vehicles per dwelling 1 4 201,7 MapData Services Pty People includes demographics education cultural 8. language diversity employment Families includes family composition weekly incomes employment status of couple families Dwellings includes dwelling structure household composition mortgage rent number of motor vehicles Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peOple includes selected people 8. dwelling characteristics 2016 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS DATA SEMINARS From July 2017 Each capital city + regional locations Content: • key census results & region-specific data • data quality information • census data products and training Data specialists available Selected seminars webcast live, recording available later Further info available soon www.abs.gov.au/census registration essential! Census release schedule 2017 27 June 2017 - Detailed data products 11 April 2017 Main data release available from July 7 7 ?April ?July Typical Australian profiles - Og T?lem Data Person, family and household statistics national and state/territory Age, sex, religion, language, income and many more topics Community level data Estimated Resident Population update Post Enumeration Survey results Independent Assurance Panel report October 2017 ?0ctober 5 3 Elsie: Employment, qualifications and population mobility topics available