Frequencies (n=600) NEVADA STATEWIDE SURVEY The Mellman Group April 12-19, 2018 Hello. My name is _[FIRST NAME ONLY]_. I'm calling long distance from ______. We are conducting a public opinion survey and I would like to ask you some questions. We are not selling anything, and I will not ask you for a contribution or donation. Could I please speak with [ASK FOR NAME ON LIST. IF NOT AVAILABLE, SCHEDULE TIME FOR A CALLBACK. YOU MAY ONLY SPEAK WITH ANOTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBER IF THEIR NAME IS ON THE LIST.] Are you registered to vote? [IF NO, TERMINATE] In which state are you registered to vote? [TERMINATE IF NOT NEVADA] [RECORD, BUT DO NOT ASK, GENDER:] Male.......................................................................................... 49 Female ...................................................................................... 51 1. How likely would you say you are to vote in the November 2018 elections for President, U.S. Senate, Congress and other political offices – are you almost certain to vote in the elections, very likely, about 50-50, not too likely, not at all likely, or aren't you sure? almost certain .............................................................................................................................................. 78 very likely ................................................................................................................................................... 22 about 50-50 ................................................................................................................................................. [TERMINATE] not too likely ............................................................................................................................................... [TERMINATE] not at all likely............................................................................................................................................. [TERMINATE] dk/not sure ................................................................................................................................................... [TERMINATE] Overall, do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of each of the following people or groups? If you haven't heard of the person or group, or if you don't know enough about them to have an impression, just say so and we will move on. Total Total very smwt smwt very don’t never [RANDOMIZE Q.3-Q.16] fav fav unfav unfav know heard Fav Unfav 3. __Donald Trump......................................................................................................................................... 30 10 8 48 5 0 39 56 4. __Dean Heller ............................................................................................................................................. 16 22 16 24 14 8 38 40 5. __Steve Sisolak .......................................................................................................................................... 17 18 6 13 23 23 35 19 6. __Chris Giunchigliani ................................................................................................................................ 8 14 4 7 28 40 22 11 7. __Adam Laxalt .......................................................................................................................................... 15 16 10 10 24 25 31 20 8. __Dan Schwartz .......................................................................................................................................... 3 6 3 4 36 48 9 7 9. __Jared Fisher ............................................................................................................................................. 1 7 2 2 37 52 8 4 10. __Kate Marshall ......................................................................................................................................... 4 9 2 3 34 48 13 5 11. __Michael Roberson .................................................................................................................................. 3 7 6 3 32 50 9 9 12. __Jacky Rosen ........................................................................................................................................... 8 12 6 9 31 34 20 15 13. __Nelson Araujo ........................................................................................................................................ 3 5 2 2 32 56 7 4 14. __Barbara Cegasvske ................................................................................................................................ 5 9 3 4 34 45 13 7 15. __Aaron Ford .............................................................................................................................................. 2 6 3 3 33 52 9 6 16. __Wes Duncan ............................................................................................................................................ 3 3 2 1 34 57 5 4 Nevada Statewide Survey (April 12-19, 2018) Page 2 19. If the November 2018 election for Senate were held today and the candidates were [READ AND RANDOMIZE] __Democrat Jacky Rosen and __Republican Dean Heller, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF A CANDIDATE IS NAMED, ASK:] Would you say you support (CANDIDATE NAMED) strongly or not strongly? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK:] Toward whom do you lean? Rosen, strongly ........................................................................................................................................... 30 39 Rosen, not strongly ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Undecided, lean Rosen ............................................................................................................................... 5 Undecided ................................................................................................................................................... 21 Undecided, lean Heller ............................................................................................................................... 7 Heller, not strongly ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Heller, strongly ........................................................................................................................................... 28 40 [ROTATE Q.20-Q.21] 20. If the November 2018 election for Governor were held today and the candidates were [READ AND RANDOMIZE] __Democrat Steve Sisolak and __Republican Adam Laxalt, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF A CANDIDATE IS NAMED, ASK:] Would you say you support (CANDIDATE NAMED) strongly or not strongly? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK:] Toward whom do you lean? Sisolak, strongly ......................................................................................................................................... 31 43 Sisolak, not strongly ................................................................................................................................... 5 Undecided, lean Sisolak ............................................................................................................................. 7 Undecided ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Undecided, lean Laxalt ............................................................................................................................... 6 Laxalt, not strongly ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Laxalt, strongly ........................................................................................................................................... 28 37 21. If the November 2018 election for Governor were held today and the candidates were [READ AND RANDOMIZE] __Democrat Chris Giunchigliani and __Republican Adam Laxalt, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF A CANDIDATE IS NAMED, ASK:] Would you say you support (CANDIDATE NAMED) strongly or not strongly? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK:] Toward whom do you lean? Giunchigliani, strongly ............................................................................................................................... 26 38 Giunchigliani, not strongly ......................................................................................................................... 6 Undecided, lean Giunchigliani ................................................................................................................... 6 Undecided ................................................................................................................................................... 22 Undecided, lean Laxalt ............................................................................................................................... 8 Laxalt, not strongly ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Laxalt, strongly ........................................................................................................................................... 28 40 [END ROTATION] Nevada Statewide Survey (April 12-19, 2018) Page 3 22. If the November 2018 election for Lieutenant Governor were held today and the candidates were [READ AND RANDOMIZE] __Democrat Kate Marshall and __Republican Michael Roberson, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF A CANDIDATE IS NAMED, ASK:] Would you say you support (CANDIDATE NAMED) strongly or not strongly? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK:] Toward whom do you lean? Marshall, strongly ....................................................................................................................................... 27 40 Marshall, not strongly ................................................................................................................................. 6 Undecided, lean Marshall ........................................................................................................................... 7 Undecided ................................................................................................................................................... 33 Undecided, lean Roberson .......................................................................................................................... 7 Roberson, not strongly................................................................................................................................ 3 Roberson, strongly ...................................................................................................................................... 17 27 23. If the November 2018 election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were [READ AND RANDOMIZE] __Democrat Nelson Araujo and __Republican Barbara Cegavske, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF A CANDIDATE IS NAMED, ASK:] Would you say you support (CANDIDATE NAMED) strongly or not strongly? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK:] Toward whom do you lean? Araujo, strongly .......................................................................................................................................... 25 36 Araujo, not strongly .................................................................................................................................... 5 Undecided, lean Araujo .............................................................................................................................. 6 Undecided ................................................................................................................................................... 33 Undecided, lean Cegavske.......................................................................................................................... 6 Cegavske, not strongly ............................................................................................................................... 5 Cegavske, strongly ..................................................................................................................................... 21 31 24. If the November 2018 election for Attorney General were held today and the candidates were [READ AND RANDOMIZE] __Democrat Aaron Ford and __Republican Wes Duncan, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF A CANDIDATE IS NAMED, ASK:] Would you say you support (CANDIDATE NAMED) strongly or not strongly? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK:] Toward whom do you lean? Ford, strongly ............................................................................................................................................. 25 36 Ford, not strongly ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Undecided, lean Ford.................................................................................................................................. 6 Undecided ................................................................................................................................................... 37 Undecided, lean Duncan ............................................................................................................................. 6 Duncan, not strongly .................................................................................................................................. 3 Duncan, strongly......................................................................................................................................... 18 27 Nevada Statewide Survey (April 12-19, 2018) Page 4 25. Now I'm going to read you the text of a statewide ballot initiative that will be on the ballot in November. Shall Article 1 of the Nevada Constitution be amended to require the Legislature to provide by law for the establishment of an open, competitive retail electric energy market that prohibits the granting of monopolies and exclusive franchises for the generation of electricity? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this ballot initiative, or are you undecided? [IF YES OR NO ASK:] Is that (yes/no) strongly or not so strongly? [IF UNDECIDED ASK:] Which way do you lean? yes, strongly ................................................................................................................................................ 38 54 yes, not so strongly ..................................................................................................................................... 8 undecided, leans yes ................................................................................................................................... 8 undecided .................................................................................................................................................... 30 undecided, leans no .................................................................................................................................... 3 no, not so strongly ...................................................................................................................................... 4 no, strongly ................................................................................................................................................. 9 16 26. Now I'm going to read you statements from supporters and opponents of this initiative. [ROTATE] __Supporters say having more than one energy provider will create more competition and lower prices. __Opponents say that having an open marketplace will create uncertainty and possibly higher prices. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this ballot initiative? [IF YES OR NO ASK:] Is that (yes/no) strongly or not so strongly? [IF UNDECIDED ASK:] Which way do you lean? yes, strongly ................................................................................................................................................ 46 64 yes, not so strongly ..................................................................................................................................... 9 undecided, leans yes ................................................................................................................................... 9 undecided .................................................................................................................................................... 22 undecided, leans no .................................................................................................................................... 2 no, not so strongly ...................................................................................................................................... 3 no, strongly ................................................................................................................................................. 8 14 [RANDOMIZE Q.27-Q.30] 27. There may be an initiative on the ballot in November to ensure that energy providers get at least 50% of their energy from renewable sources, like wind and solar, by 2030. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this ballot initiative? [IF YES OR NO ASK:] Is that (yes/no) strongly or not so strongly? [IF UNDECIDED ASK:] Which way do you lean? yes, strongly ................................................................................................................................................ 57 68 yes, not so strongly ..................................................................................................................................... 6 undecided, leans yes ................................................................................................................................... 5 undecided .................................................................................................................................................... 12 undecided, leans no .................................................................................................................................... 2 no, not so strongly ...................................................................................................................................... 4 no, strongly ................................................................................................................................................. 13 20 Nevada Statewide Survey (April 12-19, 2018) Page 5 28. Under Nevada’s Education Savings Account program, the state would give parents of students in grades K-through-12 $5,000 that parents can use to help pay for private, on-line or religious school tuition. Do you favor or oppose this program? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE, ASK:] Is that strongly or not so strongly? Favor, strongly ............................................................................................................................................ 38 49 Favor, not strongly...................................................................................................................................... 12 Oppose, not strongly ................................................................................................................................... 8 Oppose, strongly ......................................................................................................................................... 30 38 [VOL] Dk/ref ............................................................................................................................................. 13 29. Some have proposed a program that allows parents of children with special needs to allocate their education tax dollars to a state-managed account so the parent may customize a learning and development plan that would best serve their needs, including special needs, therapies, virtual education, K-12 private school tuition, vocational education or a combination of these, through approved providers. Do you favor or oppose this program? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE, ASK:] Is that strongly or not so strongly? Favor, strongly ............................................................................................................................................ 56 70 Favor, not strongly...................................................................................................................................... 14 Oppose, not strongly ................................................................................................................................... 5 Oppose, strongly ......................................................................................................................................... 9 14 [VOL] Dk/ref ............................................................................................................................................. 16 30. The Nevada Education Choice Scholarship Program gives businesses a tax credit for contributions they make to organizations that give out scholarships to low income parents that they can use to help pay tuition at private and religious elementary, secondary and high schools. Current funding allows about 3,500 scholarships per year. Would you favor or oppose increasing funding for this program so it can give more tax credits to businesses that contribute to scholarships for low income parents to send their children to private and religious elementary, secondary and high schools? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE, ASK] Do you feel that way strongly or not strongly? Favor, strongly ............................................................................................................................................ 47 59 Favor, not strongly...................................................................................................................................... 11 Oppose, not strongly ................................................................................................................................... 10 Oppose, strongly ......................................................................................................................................... 18 28 [VOL] Dk/ref ............................................................................................................................................. 13 [END ROTATION] THANK YOU. THE FEW REMAINING QUESTIONS ARE FOR STATISTICAL PURPOSES ONLY. Nevada Statewide Survey (April 12-19, 2018) 31. Page 6 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or something else? [IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT ASK:] Do you consider yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or a not so strong (Republican/Democrat)? [IF INDEPENDENT ASK:] Would you say that you lean more toward the Republicans or more toward the Democrats? strong Republican .......................................................... 24 not so strong Republican ............................................... 6 independent leans Republican ....................................... 7 independent.................................................................... 19 independent leans Democratic ....................................... 7 not so strong Democrat .................................................. 5 strong Democrat ............................................................ 29 dk/na/other ..................................................................... 5 Total Republican ......................................................... 36 Total Independent/Other ............................................ 24 Total Democrat ............................................................ 40 Party Registration (from voter file): Democrat ....................................................................... 42 Republican ..................................................................... 39 NPA/Other ..................................................................... 19 32. Do you consider yourself very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or very conservative? [IF MODERATE, ASK:] Do you tend to lean toward the liberal or conservative side? very liberal ..................................................................... 14 somewhat liberal ............................................................ 12 moderate leans liberal .................................................... 4 moderate ........................................................................ 30 moderate leans conservative .......................................... 3 somewhat conservative .................................................. 16 very conservative ........................................................... 15 dk/ref.............................................................................. 6 Total Liberal ................................................................ 30 Total Moderate ............................................................ 36 Total Conservative....................................................... 34 33. What is your age? [CODE ACTUAL AGE. REFUSED=99] ______ 18-29 .............................................................................. 13 30-39 .............................................................................. 13 40-49 .............................................................................. 15 50-59 .............................................................................. 18 60-69 .............................................................................. 20 70+ ................................................................................. 20 Ref ................................................................................. 0 Nevada Statewide Survey (April 12-19, 2018) 34. What was the last level of schooling you completed? less than high school graduate ....................................... 2 high school graduate ...................................................... 18 vocational training/vocational school ............................ 4 some college, but no degree ........................................... 28 a 2-year or associate degree ........................................... 11 a 4-year or bachelor’s degree ......................................... 23 a post-graduate degree ................................................... 12 [VOL] dk/ref .................................................................. 2 Total HS or Less ........................................................... 20 Total Some Coll/Vocational......................................... 42 Total Bachelor’s/Post-Grad ........................................ 35 35. Are you Latino, Hispanic, or of Spanish descent? Yes ................................................................................. 15 No .................................................................................. 83 Dk .................................................................................. 2 36. Are you black, white, Asian, Native American or some other race? Black .............................................................................. 9 White ............................................................................. 67 Asian .............................................................................. 2 Native American ............................................................ 1 Other .............................................................................. 17 Ref ................................................................................. 4 37. What is your zip code? __________ Thank you very much for your participation. Have a good day. Page 7