Presentation To: Findings From April 2018 Statewide Survey Mark Mellman • mmellman@mellmangroup.com 1023 31st Street, NW • 5th Floor • Washington, DC 20007 ph 202-625-0370 • www.mellmangroup.com Methodology • Survey of 600 Nevada voters representing the likely 2018 electorate • Oversamples of the Democratic and Republican primaries up to 400 each • Interviews conducted April 12-19, 2018 • Margin of error: • +/- 4.0% for the general • +/- 4.9% for the primaries • higher for subgroups 2 Republicans Face A Challenging, But Not Insurmountable, Environment TEXT to 88022 g? Sparks, Nevada ?r 3 MAKE AMERICA GREAT . The Left Has A Slight Advantage Over The Right, With Middle Holding The Balance 2018 Primary Electorate 80% Party ID/Ideology 60% 44% 41% 40% 24% 20% 24% 16% 14% 6% 4% 11% 0% Lib Dem Mod/Cons Dem Lib Indep Mod Indep Cons Indep Mod/Lib Rep Cons Rep 4 Trump Is Widely Unpopular, With His Appeal Largely Confined To Republicans Donald Trump Favorability Mean Ratio Hard ID 2.22 0.70 95% -17 56% 39% 30% very Favorable 48% very Unfavorable Dem Indep Mod Indep GOP White Hispanic Women <40 Men <40 Women 40-59 Men 40-59 Women 60+ Men 60+ Non-Coll White White Coll Clark County Washoe County Rural Counties Fav Unfav 5% 31% 23% 84% 49% 22% 14% 30% 46% 46% 40% 51% 49% 50% 37% 35% 56% 90% 60% 68% 15% 47% 72% 81% 68% 51% 46% 54% 45% 47% 48% 59% 64% 35% 5 Though Heller Is Better Known, Rosen Is Better Liked By Those Who Know Her Favorability (rank ordered by mean) Mean Ratio Hard ID 2.54 1.36 35% 2.38 0.96 78% 20% Jacky Rosen 15% 38% Dean Heller 40% favorable unfavorable 7 Heller Is Net Unfavorable, With Intensity Against Him He’s Not Even Beloved By The Republican Base Fav Dean Heller Favorability Mean Ratio Hard ID 2.38 0.96 78% -2 38% 40% 16% very 24% very Favorable Unfavorable Dem Indep Mod Indep GOP White Hispanic 18-39 40-59 60+ Non-Coll Women Non-Coll Men Coll Women Coll Men Clark County Washoe County Rural Counties 23% 31% 28% 60% 43% 23% 26% 37% 47% 42% 40% 30% 36% 35% 42% 46% Unfav Hard ID 55% 42% 44% 22% 39% 43% 49% 38% 36% 33% 36% 53% 46% 41% 44% 32% 78% 73% 72% 82% 82% 65% 74% 75% 83% 75% 77% 83% 81% 76% 86% 78% 8 Jacky Rosen Isn’t Particularly Well Known In Her District She’s Narrowly Net Favorable Jacky Rosen Favorability Mean Ratio Hard ID 2.54 1.33 35% +5 20% Favorable 15% Unfavorable Dem Indep Mod Indep GOP White Hispanic 18-39 40-59 60+ Non-Coll Women Non-Coll Men Coll Women Coll Men Clark County Washoe County Rural Counties CD3 Fav Unfav Hard ID 31% 17% 20% 10% 18% 14% 20% 19% 20% 18% 15% 17% 34% 24% 15% 11% 29% 6% 18% 17% 22% 15% 15% 13% 14% 17% 9% 17% 19% 17% 19% 7% 9% 22% 37% 35% 37% 32% 34% 30% 33% 33% 37% 27% 32% 36% 51% 42% 22% 20% 51%9 Heller Leads By An Insignificant 1 Point 80% Senate Vote Dem Indep Mod Indep +1 GOP White 40% Hispanic 39% 18-39 40-59 21% 60+ Non-Coll Women 28% Strong Non-Coll Men 30% Strong Coll Women 0% Heller Rosen Undecided Coll Men Clark County Washoe County Heller Rosen Undec. 8% 33% 29% 79% 47% 27% 26% 49% 41% 38% 44% 39% 37% 36% 41% 78% 28% 25% 3% 34% 47% 49% 34% 38% 39% 32% 45% 45% 42% 42% 13% 39% 45% 18% 19% 26% 26% 18% 21% 22% 24% 16% 18% 23% 16% 10 Among Those Who Know Both Candidates, Rosen Leads By A Substantial Margin Senate Vote Among Those Who Know Both Candidates Overall 100% Know Heller and Rosen 60% 40% 20% 40% +12 Heller Rosen Undec +1 80% 48% 39% 36% 21% 16% 0% 11 Some Undecideds Are Torn – While They Lean Republican, They View Trump Unfavorably SENATE UNDECIDEDS Donald Trump Favorability 0% 100% -30 0% +5 80% 60% 0% 0% Party ID 60% 44% 40% 30% 25% 0% 20% 0% 0% Favorable Unfavorable Dem 30% GOP Indep 12 Allocating Undecides Indicates This Race Is Poised To Remain Extremely Close Senate Vote Allocations 100% 80% Initial After Allocation +1 +1 60% 40% 20% 40% 49% 50% 39% 21% 1% 0% Heller Rosen Undec 13 Rosen Would Benefit From Higher Turnout Senate Vote By Vote History Frequent Voter Less Frequent 100% Rosen Heller Undec +7 80% 60% 40% 20% 38% 45% +9 41% 32% 27% 17% 0% 14 Sisolak Has The Advantage In The Democratic Primary Among Democratic Primary Voters, Sisolak Is Much Better Known & Better Liked Than Giunchigliani DEM PRI Favorability (rank ordered by mean) Mean Ratio Hard ID 3.27 5.80 69% 3.17 4.75 46% 58% Steve Sisolak 10% 38% hris Giunchigliani 8% favorable unfavorable 16 % DEM PRI Sisolak Has A Clear Primary Lead, But Primaries Are Volatile And There’re A Lot Of Undecideds Democratic Primary Vote For Governor Liberal Mod/Cons 18-39 40-59 44% 40% 60+ Men Women 16% 32% Strong % Sisolak Non-Coll College+ 11% Strong Giunchigliani Clark Co Undecided Rest Of State Sisolak Giunchigliani Undec 44% 47% 34% 47% 44% 47% 41% 45% 43% 46% 39% 28% 13% 28% 16% 13% 15% 17% 14% 19% 16% 16% 28% 41% 38% 37% 42% 38% 42% 41% 38% 38% 44% 17 Laxalt?s Advantage Is Even Greater In The Republican Primary REPUBLICAN PARTY GOP PRI Laxalt Is The Best Known And Best Liked GOP Primary Candidate Mean Ratio Hard ID 3.31 5.90 69% 2.65 1.71 19% 2.60 2.00 12% Favorability (rank ordered by mean) Adam Laxalt Dan Schwartz Jared Fisher 59% 10% 12% 7% 8% 4% favorable unfavorable 19 GOP PRI 80% Laxalt Enjoys A Substantial Primary Lead In Every Segment Republican Primary Vote For Governor 55% 38% 40% Strong 4% 2% Schwartz Fisher 0% Laxalt Laxalt Schwartz Fisher Lib/Mod Cons <50 50+ Men Women Non-Coll College+ Clark Washoe Rural Unde 48% 10% 2% 40% 57% 3% 3% 37% 49% 6% 5% 40% 57% 4% 2% 38% 59% 5% 2% 34% 51% 4% 2% 42% 52% 4% 3% 41% 58% 5% 2% 35% 46% 5% 2% 47% 71% 4% 1% 25% 61% 4% 4% 31% Undec 20 The General Election For Governor Is Close - Sisolak And Laxalt Are Evenly Matched On Image, But Half The Electorate, Or More, Has Lot To Learn About The Candidates Favorability (rank ordered by mean) Steve Sisolak Chris Giunchigliani Adam Laxalt 35% 19% 22% 11% 31% favorable 20% unfavorable Mean Ratio Hard ID 2.72 1.84 54% 2.72 2.00 32% 2.70 1.55 51% 22 Sisolak Leads Laxalt, Whereas Giunchigliani Trails Narrowly Gubernatorial Vote 100% Laxalt vs. Sisolak +6 80% Dem Laxalt Undec 60% 43% 40% 20% Laxalt vs. Giunchigliani -2 38% 40% 37% 20% 22% 0% 23 0% Sisolak Racks Up Big Margins Among Younger Voters, In Clark And Washoe, And Splits Independents To Build His Lead Gubernatorial Vote Laxalt vs Sisolak +6 43% 37% 20% 31% Strong 28% Strong Sisolak Laxalt 0% Undecided Dem Indep Mod Indep GOP White Hispanic 18-39 40-59 60+ Non-Coll Women Non-Coll Men Coll Women Coll Men Clark County Washoe County Rural Counties Sisolak Laxalt Undec. 79% 31% 35% 10% 36% 52% 52% 38% 40% 46% 40% 39% 46% 46% 46% 24% 5% 32% 29% 76% 47% 21% 22% 43% 41% 31% 38% 42% 40% 33% 35% 57% 16% 37% 37% 14% 17% 27% 25% 19% 18% 23% 22% 19% 14% 21% 19% 19% 24 0% Against Giunchigliani, Laxalt Leads In Clark And Draws Even In Washoe Gubernatorial Vote Laxalt vs Giunchigliani +2 40% 38% 22% 28% Strong 28% Strong 0% Laxalt Giunchigliani Undecided Dem Indep Mod Indep GOP White Hispanic 18-39 40-59 60+ Non-Coll Women Non-Coll Men Coll Women Coll Men Clark County Washoe County Rural Counties Laxalt CG Undec. 8% 37% 31% 78% 49% 27% 29% 43% 45% 46% 38% 45% 34% 36% 38% 59% 72% 26% 30% 8% 33% 43% 44% 35% 36% 32% 36% 46% 36% 41% 38% 25% 21% 37% 39% 14% 19% 30% 27% 23% 19% 23% 25% 9% 30% 23% 24% 15% 25 Both Democrats Lead Among Those Who Know Both Candidates In The Match Up Gubernatorial Vote Among Those Who Know Both Candidates 100% Know Laxalt and Sisolak 80% +10 60% 40% 20% 49% Know Laxalt and Giunchigliani +2 Dem Laxalt Undec 46% 39% 12% 44% 10% 0% 26 Allocating Undecideds Expands Sisolak’s Lead Gubernatorial Vote Allocation - Sisolak Initial 100% 80% After Allocation +6 +9 54% 60% 43% 40% 20% 37% 45% 20% 1% 0% Sisolak Undec Laxalt 27 Undecideds Are Also Likely To Break To Giunchigliani Giving Her The Lead Gubernatorial Vote Allocation - Giunchigliani 100% 80% Initial After Allocation -2 +6 60% 40% 52% 38% 40% 46% 22% 20% 1% 0% Giunchigliani Laxalt Undec 28 a I Little-Known Democrats In Down-Ballot Races Enjoy Leads, But With Lots Of Undecideds 0% 0% Few Know Either Marshall Or Roberson, But The Democrat Leads In The Lt. Governor Race That Lead Shrinks A Bit After Allocation LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR RACE Favorability Kate Marshall Lt. Gov Vote Michael Roberson 100% Ratio Hard ID Ratio Hard ID 2.81 17% 1.04 18% 0% 0% Allocation +13 +11 80% 60% +8 49% = 0% 0% Initial 40% 40% 27% 13% 5% Favorable 9% 9% Unfavorable 33% 38% 20% 0% 13% Marshall Roberson Undec 30 Ford Leads Duncan, Though Both Are Unknown 0% 0% The Lead Narrows When Undecideds Are Allocated ATTORNEY GENERAL RACE Favorability AG Vote Aaron Ford Wes Duncan 100% Ratio Hard ID Ratio Hard ID 1.43 15% 1.52 9% 0% 0% Party Allocation +9 +6 80% 60% +3 +1 46% 0% 0% Initial 40% 37% 36% 40% 27% 9% 14% 20% 6% 5% Favorable Unfavorable 4% 0% Ford Duncan Undec 31 The Secretary Of State Candidates Are Also Largely Unknown, But Again The Democrat Now Leads 0% 0% The Race Narrows A Bit With Undecideds Allocated SECRETARY OF STATE RACE Favorability Nelson Araujo SOS Vote Barbara Cegavske 100% Ratio Hard ID Ratio Hard ID 1.81 11% 1.86 21% 0% Allocation +5 +4 80% 60% +3 +6 0% 45% 40% 0% 0% Initial 7% 13% 4% Favorable Unfavorable 36% 41% 31% 33% 14% 20% 7% 0% Araujo Cegavske Undec 32 In Strong Position The Energy Choice Initiative Enjoys Majority Support It Has A Large Lead In Every Segment Shall Article 1 of the Nevada Constitution be amended to require the Legislature to provide by law for the establishment of an open, competitive retail electric energy market that prohibits the granting of monopolies and exclusive franchises for the generation of electricity? % % % 54% +38 % % 30% 38% Strongly 16% % Yes No Undec Yes No Undec Dem Indep Mod Indep Gop 61% 49% 49% 50% 13% 16% 15% 19% 27% 35% 36% 31% White Hispanic 58% 51% 62% 55% 48% 15% 18% 16% 16% 15% 27% 31% 21% 29% 37% 48% 57% 55% 56% 58% 20% 14% 15% 14% 18% 32% 29% 30% 29% 24% 34 18-39 40-59 60+ HS or less Some college College grad+ Clark County Washoe County After Statements From Both Sides, “Yes” Gains Now I'm going to read you statements from supporters and opponents of this initiative:   Supporters say having more than one energy provider will create more competition and lower prices. Opponents say that having an open marketplace will create uncertainty and possibly higher prices. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this ballot initiative? Lighter shading=initial Darker shading=post statements 100% 80% +10 64% 60% 54% Men >40 (+15) Indep (+15) Conservative (+14) -2 40% 16% 20% 30% 14% 22% 0% Yes No Undec 35 A Renewable Energy Initiative Support For A Renewable Energy Standard Crosses Partisan, Ethnic, Generational, And Geographic Lines There may be an initiative on the ballot in November to ensure that energy providers get at least 50% of their energy from renewable sources, like wind and solar, by 2030. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this ballot initiative? % +48 57% Strongly 12% % Yes No 84% 65% 70% 52% 66% 73% 6% 22% 20% 34% 23% 9% 10% 14% 11% 14% 11% 18% Non-Coll Women Non-Coll Men Coll Women Coll Men 81% 64% 62% 70% 66% 68% 71% 12% 22% 24% 16% 20% 23% 23% 7% 14% 14% 14% 14% 8% 6% Clark County Washoe County 72% 67% 18% 18% 11% 15%37 18-39 40-59 60+ % % DK White Hispanic % 20% No Dem Indep Mod indep GOP % 68% Yes DK ESAs Enjoy Plurality Support, While Special Needs Accounts Draw A Strong Majority % ESAs Have Plurality, But Not Majority, Support They’re Viewed Skeptically By Independent, White & Senior Voters, As Well As By College Educated Men Under Nevada’s Education Savings Account program, the state would give parents of students in grades K-through-12 $5,000 that parents can use to help pay for private, on-line or religious school tuition. Do you favor or oppose this program? +11 49% 38% % % 13% 38% Strongly % Favor Oppose Oppose DK 48% 39% 44% 40% 8% 21% 39% 37% 23% 57% 30% 12% White Hispanic 18-39 40-59 60+ 45% 68% 57% 53% 42% 40% 29% 33% 33% 45% 15% 3% 10% 14% 14% Non-Coll Women Non-Coll Men Coll Women Coll Men Clark County 55% 55% 45% 35% 52% 34% 33% 42% 51% 36% 11% 12% 14% 14% 11%39 Dem Indep Mod indep GOP % % Favor DK Everyone Heard the Following Description Of Special Needs Accounts Some have proposed a program that allows parents of children with special needs to allocate their education tax dollars to a state-managed account so the parent may customize a learning and development plan that would best serve their needs, including special needs, therapies, virtual education, k-12 private school tuition, vocational education or a combination of these, through approved providers. Do you favor or oppose this program? 40 % % Support For Special Needs Education Accounts Is Strong And Widespread Support Is Strongest Among Latinos Special-Needs Education Accounts 70% +56 % % % 56% Strongly 14% 16% Oppose DK % Favor Dem Indep Mod indep GOP White Hispanic 18-39 40-59 60+ Non-Coll Women Non-Coll Men Coll Women Coll Men Clark County Washoe County Rural Counties Favor Oppose 75% 61% 61% 71% 66% 86% 79% 73% 62% 76% 77% 58% 62% 72% 66% 69% 11% 18% 17% 14% 16% 1% 10% 10% 19% 8% 9% 26% 20% 13% 16% 15% DK 14% 22% 22% 14% 18% 13% 12% 17% 18% 16% 14% 16% 18% 16% 17% 16% 41 What Does It All Mean…. ■ 2018 will be an exciting political year in Nevada ■ Nevada will once again be at the epicenter of national politics 42 Mark Mellman • mmellman@mellmangroup.com 1023 31st Street, NW • 5th Floor • Washington, DC 20007 ph 202-625-0370 • www.mellmangroup.com 43