Findings from the San Juan Islands Visitor Study for Terrestrial Managers Presented on Wednesday, February 28th at the San Juan County Fairgrounds in Friday Harbor, WA Confluence Research and Consulting Alaska office Doug Whittaker, Ph.D. 6324 Red Tree Circle Anchorage, Alaska 99507 USA Email: dougwhit@alaska.net 907.346.3769 Oregon office Bo Shelby, Ph.D. 3600 NW Thrush Corvallis, Oregon 97330 USA Email: bo.shelby@oregonstate.edu 541.753.0635 (office) San Juan Islands Visitor Study Special Edition February 28, 2018 Confluence Research and Consulting How did we get here? Where are we heading? Terrestrial Managers Group Oct 2016 workshop and 2017 Report Identify information needs Conduct study and review findings Cooperative action planning Confluence Research and Consulting Similar projects Juneau Trails Plan Yosemite Valley Colorado River in Grand Canyon Snake River in Jackson Hole Tongass NF shore lands– Misty Fjords Spokane River Confluence Research and Consulting Study intentions Organize existing information Collect new information – tell you tonight Make it useful It’s your place – no advocacy Goal: Good information for all Confluence Research and Consulting Overview Sources of information – overview of study Getting to the islands Who are they and what do they want? Where do they stay? Where do they go? Conditions at sites Support for management actions Conclusions and overriding themes Questions Confluence Research and Consulting '4 35%: 3 It . v? .1. - ?gnl? 2. Accommodation Inventory Confluence Research and Consulting Basic unit of analysis – how many: Hotels, campgrounds, & vacation rentals 3. Site counts People, vehicles boats, bikes on roads Systematic sampling -- medium to higher use times Quantify use patterns, averages, and peaks Confluence Research and Consulting 4. Onsite survey San Juan n = 537 One page Cattle Point South Beach Lime Kiln SP SJ County Park Westside Preserve Confluence Research and Consulting Sampling Late May through mid-September More in mid-summer (75% Jul-Aug) Morning through early evening 24% before 11; 35% midday; 41% after 2pm 5. Ferry survey Total 772 ferry passengers – 323 SJI, 219 Orcas, 230 Lopez 631 visitors 141 residents/other Confluence Research and Consulting Getting to the islands WSF stats , web-information, & interviews Confluence Research and Consulting Long term year-round WSF trends – all islands Riders and vehicles WSF ferry statistics Steady increase since 2007-08 recession; 2017 similar to 2016 Confluence Research and Consulting Long term summer WSF vehicle trends by islands WSF ferry statistics San Juan Island > Orcas > Lopez > Interisland Summer vehicles lower for 2017 for SJI and Orcas; Lopez steady Reasons: weather, fire, ferry disruptions in July and early Aug Confluence Research and Consulting Daily riders (drivers + passengers + walk-ons) 2017 Schedule disruption Schedule disruption WSF ferry statistics Summer effect; weekend effect, holiday effect San Juan Island > Orcas > Lopez Confluence Research and Consulting Ferry capacities Larger 144 vehicles 2,000 passengers Smaller 64 750 124 1,200 Challenging to estimate • Shared space on some islands (multiple stops) • Sailings per day vary • WSF can fit more/less depending on lengths of “talls” Confluence Research and Consulting Per day WSF vehicle capacities by island Friday Harbor – • 5 to 6 direct from Anacortes +2-3 via Lopez Per day capacity: ~900 to 1,100 Orcas – • 5 from Anacortes + 2 to 3 via Lopez Per day capacity: ~800 to 1,000 Lopez – • 5 direct from Anacortes + 2 to 3 with Per day capacity: ~500 to 700 Confluence Research and Consulting Vehicles per day by island 2017 Ferry capacity (high estimate) Ferry capacity (low estimate) WSF ferry statistics San Juan and Orcas > Lopez Consistent weekend peak pattern Confluence Research and Consulting Space for vehicles even on busy days WSF ferry statistics Max large ferries = 144 Max medium ferries = 124 Confluence Research and Consulting People per vehicle on ferries Summer 2017 (without walk-ons) San Juan 2.1 Orcas 2.3 Lopez 1.8 Unused space on ferries for vehicles…and unused space in vehicles In winter/shoulder, fewer people per vehicle – more visitors with filled cars in summer Confluence Research and Consulting Ride-on bicycles: Percent by time of day Anacortes  Lopez WSF ferry statistics Anacortes  Friday Harbor WSF ferry statistics 2nd morning ferry is most popular; declining numbers through day With no constraints on reservations – cyclists have their choice of sailings Confluence Research and Consulting Ride-on bicycles per day on ferry routes (peak season) WSF ferry statistics Lopez > San Juan > Orcas Peaks more than twice the averages From limited FH 2017 in-person ferry counts: 9.8 bikes on cars / ferry Car to bike ratio: 12 to 1 Confluence Research and Consulting Percent walk-ons 2017 WSF ferry statistics San Juan > Orcas or Lopez Proportion of walk-ons builds toward end of the week Short duration visitors have less need of a car? Confluence Research and Consulting Airlines and private planes 150 to 250 pax per day San Juan 50 to 80 ppd Orcas 10 to 30 ppd Lopez Confluence Research and Consulting Confluence Research and Consulting Cruise ships Infrequent day landings <100 ppd American Cruise Lines Un-Cruise Adventures USA River Cruises Confluence Research and Consulting Private boats <2000 slips <30% for cruisers (non-local) Use estimate challenges Confluence Research and Consulting :Then retical Max 2017 Typical peak Average WSF Other ferries Airlines Private boats Confluence Research and Consulting ?awn. . .Ln ub~ 1.4-Which islands do SJI visitors go to? From onsite survey Onsite survey Most stay the night on SJI About 20% visit Orcas and 5% visit Lopez, but few stay on those islands Other overnight locations: leaving for home/mainland; boat Confluence Research and Consulting Who visits which island? From ferry survey Ferry passenger survey Less multi-island travel than among onsite visitors (5-20%) San Juan-surveyed visitors most likely to visit other islands Lopez-surveyed visitors most likely to visit only one island Confluence Research and Consulting Average number of days per island (among those visiting that island) Ferry passenger survey San Juan visitors stay fewer days Of those who visit multiple islands, many stay more than one day Confluence Research and Consulting Days on other islands – all visitors Pearl (14) Henry (7) Small private island (7) Stuart (4) James (3) Sucia (3) Jones (3) Vancouver Island (3) Shaw Fidalgo Gulf Islands Whidbey 5% spend days on other islands Of those: average 2.7 days Confluence Research and Consulting San Juan Island Percent visitors (n=465) and residents (n=59) Onsite survey About 9 in 10 people at sites are visitors (higher than other islands) South Beach and Westside have lower proportions (but small samples) Higher visitor proportions than Lopez and Orcas (80%) Confluence Research and Consulting Visitor length of stay Ferry passenger survey Much more day use than Orcas & Lopez Median 3.0 days Majority stay less than a long weekend Confluence Research and Consulting Visitor group size Ferry passenger survey Mostly small groups Median 3.0; average: 4.1 (similar to other islands) Largest group: 48 kids + 16 adults; some other groups >16 Confluence Research and Consulting Visitors’ accommodation Ferry passenger survey More SJI visitors stay in hotels and B&Bs than Orcas and Lopez Fewer SJI visitors stay with family/friends than Lopez High campground percentages influenced by County Park sampling Confluence Research and Consulting Onsite survey Travel to sites – Visitors and residents Most drive vehicles – their own or rentals Residents use bikes more often than other islands Confluence Research and Consulting ,fCon?u ?6 . ?nce ReS?arc?h .andZCo nsultin'g - Visitors Residents San Juan Island visitors – Where are they from? Onsite survey Orcas: 56% Washington; 18% other US; 7% Intl. Lopez: 68% Washington; 14% other US, 4% Intl. Confluence Research and Consulting Number of times visiting the San Juan Islands Ferry passenger survey San Juan Orcas Lopez Avg 5.6 5.5 10.0 Med 2.0 2.0 5.0 Lopez > Orcas and San Juan San Juan has highest number of first-timers Over 20 includes reports of “dozens,” “hundreds,” “jillion,” “infinite” – not in means Confluence Research and Consulting Confluence Research and Consulting San Juan Island – Profile of residents visiting sites (n=59) 92% live on San Juan Island None live on Orcas or Lopez Island 59% year-round residents 8% 7 to 11 months 12% 4 to 6 months 20% < 4 months (higher than Orcas & Lopez) 29% retired (slightly higher than Lopez, similar to Orcas) Median 10 years living on island (average 11.7) 24% have lived on SJI > 20 years Visit sites median 4 times /month 25% visit >10 times per month Rueben Tarte Park "il 5 .0 I ".ch - (rtr".v tlv\ - Outdoor recreation participation From ferry survey – all islands first, then differences “Please check all the outdoor activities you have done during your visit (if a resident, check activities you have done in the past week).” Hiking on trails Etc. 14 activities listed on survey Percent of visitors and residents who checked each shown on graph Confluence Research and Consulting Reported recreation activities Visitors & residents • Hiking is top activity • 5 of 7 top activities are water-proximate • Visitors and residents are similar (rank order) • A few exceptions – e.g. visitors > residents for shore marine viewing Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting Reported recreation activities Comparing islands • Orcas & Lopez > San Juan for most activities • Orcas is highest for trail hiking and swimming – fits with geography • Small samples for guided activities Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting I :1 ?u .l - 'l .11 Java.? The San Juan Islands Experience From ferry survey “People enjoy the San Juan Islands for many reasons. Please rate the following reasons for you.” Natural/rural scenery Etc. Etc. Not at all important 0 Slightly important 1 Moderately Very Extremely important important important 2 3 4 15 items on the survey Average importance of 12 key items on following graph Confluence Research and Consulting Experience importance: two ways to analyze Ferry passenger survey Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting 4 of 5 most important experiences rely on natural resources Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting Social setting: Friendliness & relaxed pace > lively village scene Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting Tourism development is relatively less important Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting Ferry experience is moderately important Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting Ferry passenger survey Experience importance Differences between islands Compared averages (t-tests, p< .05) Visitors recognize differences: Lopez: higher on biking San Juan: higher on cultural history, lively village scene San Juan and Orcas > Lopez on arts, stores/restaurants, accommodation All islands equal on friendliness Confluence Research and Consulting - .NW1O.'Types of Accommodation Vacation Rental Inventory Hotel Inventory Confluence Research and Consulting Overall housing stock ~13,500 housing units for ~8,000 full-time resident households Four categories Source: SJI County DCD 2017 briefing on vacation rental code amendments (Erica Shook & Linda Kuller) Confluence Research and Consulting Changing proportions Declining long-term rentals and “vacant” homes Increasing vacation rentals Source: SJI County DCD 2017 briefing on vacation rental code amendments (Erica Shook & Linda Kuller) Confluence Research and Consulting Vacant homes = second homes Probably not vacant in summer Family/friends – free vacation rentals Confluence Research and Consulting Rental Platforms Airbnb - VRBO - Craigslist - Direct booking - Word of mouth Confluence Research and Consulting Vacation Rental Inventory 875 units sampled Random subset of 215 listings Airbnb & VRBO San Juan (97), Orcas (60), and Lopez (60) Confluence Research and Consulting Sampling San Juan Islands - Homes Jan 17 - Jan 21 VACATION HOME SEEDS Utter Seclusion - Friday Harbor. San Juan Island ?Ll ?2 a Cottage-in-the-Barn on Dragonfly Farm HOUSE 13:0 The Cabin of Two Bears on San Juan Island GUESTHOUSE - I am Cottage on Bison Pond $165 ENTIRE HOUSE San Juan Bay - Garrison Bay Waterfront Home! $256 5102 ENTIRE HOUSE-2BEDS Famous Romantic Gnome House Chalet F-APE NU Confluence Research and Consulting up. - 175 a. .- Confluence Research and Consulting Hotel Inventory Web searches and structured interviews 76 establishments San Juan (41), Orcas (28), and Lopez (7) Confluence Research and Consulting 50% of units have kitchens Confluence Research and Consulting Number of accommodation units Rooms / bedrooms / campsites 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Accommodation inventory Campgrounds VRBO Airbnb B&Bs Hostels Cabins Resort/condo Hotels/inns Total SJI Orcas Lopez Confluence Research and Consulting Estimated average overnight visitors (if all units were occupied) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Accommodation inventory Campground Airbnb/vrbo B&B Hostel Cabins Resort/condo Hotels/inns Total SJI Orcas Lopez Assumes 3 people per hotel unit, 7 per condo, 6 per cabin, 4 per hostel room, 3 per BB bedroom, 5 per transient rental unit, and 6 per campsite Confluence Research and Consulting it? I: :1 1 .1 5 Number of recreation sites visited (total and per day) For the island where they were surveyed Ferry passenger survey Avg # of sites San Juan 2.2 Orcas 3.1 Lopez 2.6 Majorities visit multiple sites Orcas > Lopez > San Juan More San Juan visitors don’t visit any sites Across all islands, visitors go to ~1 site per day Confluence Research and Consulting Sites/day 1.1 1.2 1.1 Most visited outdoor recreation sites on San Juan Island Others listed: Ferry passenger survey Friday Harbor Shops/restaurants Alpaca Farm Lavender Farm Deadman’s Bay Egg Lake Cemetery Whales Confluence Research and Consulting Most visited outdoor recreation sites on Orcas Island Others listed: Ferry passenger survey Eastsound Buck Bay Skate park Rosario Kayaking Whale watching Confluence Research and Consulting Most visited outdoor recreation sites on Lopez Island Others listed: Ferry passenger survey Lopez Village Mackaye Harbor Flat Head Marina Kayaking Confluence Research and Consulting Use levels at sites Traffic counters, campground reservations, and onsite counts Confluence Research and Consulting Lime Kiln traffic counts 2017 Automated traffic count Sunday before Memorial Day Monday before July 4 Sunday before Labor Day Other weekly peaks are Saturdays Same season, weekend, and holiday effects shown in WSF data Confluence Research and Consulting American Camp and English Camp visitor center counts 2017 Day of the week variation Visitor center count Confluence Research and Consulting Bob Otis Lime Kiln observations Ripon College researcher Tracked whales since 1990 9-5 May 20 to Aug 10 (83 days) Whale behavior focus Tracks visitors, dogs, weather, etc. Counts visitors • In lighthouse through day • From lighthouse at 4 times • 10 am; noon; 2:30 pm; 5 pm • Tracks if whales present • Has other information…dogs, boats… Confluence Research and Consulting Percent of times whales are present Bob Otis count Long term average is 14%; 10-20% most years But down in 2016 and 2017 Confluence Research and Consulting Best times for viewing at Lime Kiln Percent of times with whales 10% at 10 am 16% at noon 17% at 2:30 pm 14% at 5 pm Confluence Research and Consulting Average number of people in view from Lighthouse Bob Otis count Whales present Whales not present Use has increased over years More people when whales are visible (but that isn’t very often) stay longer Widening gap – indicator of social media effect? Whale rushes are possible Confluence Research and Consulting San Juan Island – People counts at all sites Lime Kiln SJ County Park South Beach English Camp American Camp 4th of July South Beach Trailheads Cattle Point Westside Preserve Jackson Beach Eagle Cove 0 100 Average 200 300 People 75th Percentile Max 400 500 Site counts Confluence Research and Consulting San Juan County Park People Vehicles Bikes Boats Kayaks Trailers Comm Vans 0 Confluence Research and Consulting Site counts Max 50 75th Percentile 100 Average 150 Confluence Research and Consulting San Juan Island American Camp Site counts People Vehicles Bikes 0 20 Max 40 75th Percentile 60 80 Average 100 San Juan Island Lime Kiln People Vehicles Bikes Boats Kayaks Trailers 0 Confluence Research and Consulting Site counts 100 Max 200 300 75th Percentile 400 Average 500 . .Confluenc??Research and Consulting I Lime Kiln use densities – people per 100 yards of trail May-September 2017 Averages 15.1/22.9 12.5/13.2 Avg. daily traffic count: 330 vehicles Whole park avg. visitors: visitors: 241 64.8people people Avg. lighthouse 10.0/5.9 Parking - 15.5 cars Parking - 7.7 cars 8.7/4.8 13.8/4.6 (Count/density) Confluence Research and Consulting Lime Kiln use densities – people per 100 yards of trail Tue July 4, 2017 1:20 pm 11/16.7 12/12.7 28/16.6 Daily traffic count: 338 vehicles Daily lighthouse visitors: 162 people Whole park AOT visitors: 109 people Parking - 17 cars Parking - 8 cars 10/5.5 28/9.3 (Count/density) Confluence Research and Consulting Lime Kiln use densities – people per 100 yards of trail Wed July 5, 2017 9:00 am 0/0.0 0/0.0 0/0.0 Daily traffic count: 426 vehicles Daily lighthouse visitors: 307 people Whole park AOT visitors: 1 person Parking - 0 cars Parking - 2 cars 1/0.6 0/0.0 (Count/density) Confluence Research and Consulting Lopez Island All Sites Spencer Spit Watmough Shark Reef Odlin Agate Beach / Iceberg Village Lopez Ferry Landing Fisherman Spit Otis Hummel Lake lot Blackie Brady Park 0 10 20 Average 30 40 60 50 People 75th Percentile Max 70 80 90 100 Site counts Confluence Research and Consulting Crowding Onsite and ferry surveys – comparison to many other studies Confluence Research and Consulting Crowding “How crowded did you feel in the following locations during your visit?” Not at all crowded Parking in villages 1 2 Etc. Etc. Slightly crowded 3 4 Moderately crowded 5 6 7 Extremely crowded 8 9 Percent reporting 3 or higher (some degree of crowding) for all locations shown in following graph… “Rule of thumb” indicator of capacity… Confluence Research and Consulting San Juan Island – Percent feeling crowded at sites (overall) Uncrowded Low normal High normal Over capacity Greatly over capacity Onsite survey Surprisingly low levels of crowding (compared to other islands’ sites) Especially Lime Kiln and County Park (see further analysis below) Confluence Research and Consulting Orcas Island – Percent feeling crowded at sites (overall) Uncrowded Low normal High normal Over capacity Onsite survey Confluence Research and Consulting Greatly over capacity Lopez Island – Percent feeling crowded at sites (overall) Uncrowded Low normal High normal Over capacity Onsite survey Confluence Research and Consulting Greatly over capacity Back to San Juan Island – Percent feeling crowded at County Park Uncrowded Low normal High normal Over capacity Onsite survey Confluence Research and Consulting Greatly over capacity San Juan Island – Percent feeling crowded at Lime Kiln Uncrowded Low normal High normal Over capacity Onsite survey Confluence Research and Consulting Greatly over capacity San Juan Island – Percent feeling crowded at Westside Preserve Uncrowded Low normal High normal Over capacity Onsite survey Confluence Research and Consulting Greatly over capacity Percent of all ferry visitors feeling crowded Uncrowded Low normal High normal Over capacity Greatly over capacity Ferry passenger survey When parking their vehicles…especially in villages (over capacity) Less crowding at destinations or while traveling Confluence Research and Consulting Percent of ferry visitors feeling crowded – comparing islands From ferry survey Uncrowded Low normal High normal Over Greatly capacity over capacity • Orcas > San Juan > Lopez for most contexts • Parking in villages and at attractions > at destinations • Relative rank of contexts is similar for all islands • Overall ratings are median between highest and lowest Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting San Juan Island – Rating conditions and facilities (all sites) Onsite survey Even higher ratings than other islands Lowest rating at any site – restrooms at Lime Kiln (1.4) Confluence Research and Consulting If visitation to the San Juan Islands grows higher than you’d like, how will you cope with it? (Check all that apply)  Resign myself to the new more crowded or congested experience.  Try to avoid crowds or congestion by visiting villages or attractions at a different day of the week or time of day.  Try to avoid crowds or congestion by visiting villages or attractions during the off-season.  Become dissatisfied.  Visit other tourist destinations instead of the San Juan Islands.  Other (specify): ______________________________________ Coping with increased visitation From ferry survey – all islands Confluence Research and Consulting Coping with increased visitation Onsite survey Similar pattern for visitors and residents Displacement: temporal in-season > off-season > inter-site spatial Displacement > product shift – lower “resign” than Rogue (34%), similar to Kenai (23%) Lowest: choosing not to cope – lower than Kenai (21%) Confluence Research and Consulting Evaluating use at beaches Ferry survey “For the beaches you visited, please rate the acceptability of use levels shown in Photos A, B, C, and D.” Confluence Research and Consulting Evaluating beach densities: All respondents Ferry passenger survey 5 and 12 people acceptable; 24 at margin; 36 clearly unacceptable No statistical differences between islands or visitors/residents Confluence Research and Consulting Evaluating beach densities: Preferences “…the number of people you prefer to see” Ferry passenger survey Majorities prefer Photo A; few prefer higher use in Photos C and D Few differences between visitors and residents Island differences small; slightly more Lopez prefer A Confluence Research and Consulting Evaluating use at marine wildlife viewing area “For the marine wildlife viewing areas you visited, please rate the acceptability of use levels shown in Photos E, F, G, and H.” Confluence Research and Consulting Evaluating marine viewing densities: All respondents Ferry passenger survey 4 and 10 people acceptable; 18 at margin; 26 clearly unacceptable Few statistical differences between islands or visitors/residents But Lopez rated 18 people more negatively than San Juan & Orcas Confluence Research and Consulting Evaluating marine viewing area densities: Preferences “…the number of people you prefer to see” Ferry passenger survey Majorities prefer Photo E; few prefer higher use in Photos G and H Few differences between visitors and residents Island differences small Confluence Research and Consulting . 0/ -- cite/L Support for management actions 21 different actions “Please tell us if you support or oppose the following actions that might be used to improve tourism in the San Juan Islands. If you support an action, identify whether it should be a low, medium, or high priority.” Confluence Research and Consulting Support for management actions among all visitors Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting Highest priority acquisition/infrastructure actions among visitors Ferry passenger survey More public land – shore > forest/mountain properties Separated bicycle lanes > roadside bike lanes Village parking > site parking More camping Interpretive exhibits are lower priority Confluence Research and Consulting Highest priority transportation actions among visitors Ferry passenger survey Visitors support them all Separated bike paths > etiquette > bicycle lanes on roads Improve traffic management in ferry rushes Village parking > site parking Bus subsidies > “leave cars behind” Confluence Research and Consulting Highest priority education actions among visitors Ferry passenger survey Visitors support them all Lowest priority is promote “leave cars behind” Confluence Research and Consulting Management strategies & trade-offs Allow conditions to change Limit visitation Promote tourism Build your way out of it Confluence Research and Consulting Tradeoff strategies – Which do visitors support? Ferry passenger survey Strongest opposition (87%) to the default strategy: allow increase Majority opposition to limit visitation (76%) Majority opposition for “building out of it” (59%) Mixed opinion toward reducing promotion Confluence Research and Consulting Tradeoffs: Use, conditions, infrastructure, and promotion Allow conditions to change Limit visitation Promote tourism Build your way out of it San Juan visitors: Lean toward infrastructure or allowing conditions Orcas visitors: Lean toward buying more land and opposes limits Lopez visitors: Lean toward less promotion, less infrastructure Confluence Research and Consulting Major themes Tourism is here, may increase Ferry and accommodations have greater capacity Everybody wants high quality experiences Data can help identify and quantify issues, standards, and strategies They’re your islands – need to manage by design, not default Confluence Research and Consulting Questions or comments Confluence Research and Consulting 9.35333; Did you make a reservation for this ferry? (Please check “yes” or “no” and check the boxes that apply) Yes – and my reservation was… No – because… Ferry passenger survey Confluence Research and Consulting SJ County Park commercial kayaks and people 2017 Launch registration data Confluence Research and Consulting County Park kayaking from previous years Launch registration data Confluence Research and Consulting County Park kayaking 2017 Boats May – Sep avg 38 per day Max 98 Jul-Aug avg 56 Confluence Research and Consulting Kayakers per trip has changed… 9-10 kayakers per trip before 2009 Dropping to 7 in recent years People 70 189 104 County Park kayaking over the years Launch registration data Confluence Research and Consulting Adapted from Toby H. analysis