WORLD DRUG REPORT 2016 Opium/Heroin Cultivation of opium poppy in selected countries, 1998-2015 (hectares) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 74,100 80,000 131,000 104,000 165,000 193,000 157,000 123,000 123,000 131,000 154,000 209,000 224,000 183,000 102,000 137,000 104,000 145,000 109,000 155,000 125,000 189,000 173,000 238,000 196,000 247,000 163,000 202,000 SOUTH-WEST ASIA Afghanistan 82,171 7,606 minimum maximum Pakistan (best estimate) Subtotal (best estimate) 260 213 622 2,500 1,500 2,438 1,545 1,701 1,909 1,779 1,721 362 382 493 217 372 82,431 7,819 74,722 82,500 132,500 106,438 166,545 194,701 158,909 124,779 124,721 131,362 154,382 209,493 224,217 183,372 12,000 6,600 1,800 2,500 1,500 1,600 1,900 3,000 4,100 6,800 3,900 6,200 5,700 SOUTH-EAST ASIA Lao People's Democratic Republic a (best estimate) 19,052 17,255 14,000 minimum 904 2,040 1,230 710 1,100 1,900 2,500 3,100 1,900 3,500 3,900 maximum 2,890 2,990 1,860 2,700 2,700 4,000 6,000 11,500 5,800 9,000 7,600 Myanmar a (best estimate) 108,700 105,000 minimum maximum Thailand b Viet Nam b (best estimate) Subtotal (best estimate) 81,400 62,200 44,200 32,800 21,500 27,700 28,500 31,700 38,100 43,600 51,000 57,800 57,600 55,500 65,600 97,500 49,500 71,900 38,500 49,600 .. .. .. .. 22,500 32,600 17,900 37,000 20,500 42,800 17,300 58,100 29,700 59,600 38,249 64,357 45,710 69,918 41,400 87,300 42,800 69,600 890 820 750 842 129 119 157 205 288 211 289 289 209 265 .. .. 128,642 123,075 96,150 75,042 50,929 34,719 24,157 29,405 30,388 33,811 41,389 47,989 58,009 61,965 64,065 61,465 SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA Colombia (best estimate) Mexico c (best estimate) 6,500 4,300 4,153 4,026 3,950 1,950 1,023 715 394 356 341 338 313 298 387 .. 1,900 4,400 2,700 4,800 3,500 3,300 5,000 6,900 15,000 19,500 14,000 12,000 10,500 11,000 17,000 24,800 21,500 maximum 28,100 Guatemala (best estimate) Subtotal (best estimate) .. .. .. .. 330 100 .. .. .. .. .. .. 220 310 640 .. 8,400 8,700 6,853 8,826 7,780 5,350 6,023 7,615 15,394 19,856 14,341 12,338 11,033 11,608 18,027 25,827 ANNEX Opium/Heroin minimum vii viii 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2,479 2,500 2,500 3,074 4,731 4,993 4,275 3,979 8,312 7,489 10,211 15,811 11,471 12,225 10,400 10,400 221,952 142,094 180,225 168,600 195,940 151,500 201,000 235,700 213,003 185,935 190,662 207,500 234,895 295,291 316,709 281,064 OTHER Other countries d (best estimate) TOTAL (best estimate) minimum 152,935 149,762 170,000 189,444 245,201 269,809 243,264 maximum 211,835 233,662 249,400 287,952 338,309 372,209 319,364 185,900 190,700 207,500 234,900 295,300 316,700 281,100 TOTAL best estimate (rounded) 222,000 142,100 180,200 168,600 195,900 151,500 201,000 235,700 213,000 Source: Afghanistan: before 2003: UNODC; since 2003: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC. Pakistan: annual report questionnaire, Government of Pakistan, United States Department of State. Lao People's Democratic Republic before 2000: UNODC; since 2000: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC. Myanmar: before 2001: United States Department of State; since 2001: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC. Colombia: before 2000: various sources, since 2000: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC. Mexico: Before 2015: estimates derived from United States Government surveys (INCSR); since 2015: national illicit crop monitoring system suppored by UNODC. Guatemala: United States Department of State (INCSR 2016). Note: Figures in italics are preliminary and may be revised when updated information becomes available. Information on estimation methodologies and definitions can be found in the methodology section of the online version of the present report. a May include areas that were eradicated after the date of the area survey. b Owing to continuing low cultivation, figures for Viet Nam as of 2000 were included in the category "Other countries". c The Government of Mexico does not validate the estimates provided by the United States Department of State over the 1998-2014 period, as they are not part of its official figures and it does not have information on the methodology used to calculate them. The Government of Mexico has implemented a monitoring system in collaboration with UNODC to estimate illicit cultivation for 2015. The figures prior to 2015 are - for methodologial reasons - not comparable with previous estimates. More information on the opium poppy cultivation estimates and the statistical ranges for 2015 (actually referring to the period July 2014 - June 2015) are contained in a joint report by the Government of Mexico and UNODC entitled "Resultados del Proyecto de Monitoreo de Cultivos Ilícitos en Territorio Mexicano" ("Results of the Project on Monitoring IIlicit Cultivations on Mexican territory"). d Eradication and plant seizure reports from different sources indicate that illicit opium poppy cultivation also exists in the following subregions: North Africa, Central Asia and Transcaucasia, Near and Middle East/SouthWest Asia, South Asia, East and South-East Asia, Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe, Central America and South America. Starting in 2008, a new methodology was introduced to estimate opium poppy cultivation and opium/heroin production in these countries. These estimates are higher than the previous figures but have a similar order of magnitude. A detailed description of the estimation methodology is available in the online version of the World Drug Report. WORLD DRUG REPORT 2016 Global potential production of oven-dry opium in selected countries, 2000-2015 (tons) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3,276 185 3,400 3,600 4,200 4,100 5,300 7,400 5,900 4,000 3,600 5,800 3,700 5,500 6,400 3,300 3,000 4,200 4,800 6,800 2,800 4,200 4,500 6,500 5100 7800 2,700 3,900 SOUTH-WEST ASIA Afghanistan minimum maximum Pakistan (best estimate) Subtotal (best estimate) 8 5 5 52 40 36 39 43 48 44 43 9 9 12 5 9 3,284 190 3,405 3,652 4,240 4,136 5,339 7,443 5,948 4,044 3,643 5,809 3,709 5,512 6,405 3,309 167 134 112 120 43 14 20 9 10 11 18 25 41 23 92 .. 7.2 23.1 16.3 23.9 7.4 11.2 4.3 16.2 6.6 16.2 11.4 24 15 36 18 69 11 35 51 133 84 176 312 315 460 410 330 580 610 690 870 670 647 213 445 350 820 420 830 520 870 630 1,100 481 916 498 815 SOUTH-EAST ASIA Lao People's Democratic Republic a (best estimate) minimum maximum Myanmar a (best estimate) 1,087 1,097 828 810 370 minimum maximum Thailand b 6 6 9 6 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 6 3 4 .. .. 1,260 1,237 949 936 415 328 337 472 424 345 603 641 734 897 766 781 Viet Nam b (best estimate) Subtotal (best estimate) SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA Colombia (best estimate) Mexico c (best estimate) 88 80 52 50 49 24 13 14 10 9 8 8 8 11 12 .. 21 91 58 101 73 71 108 150 325 425 300 250 220 225 360 475 minimum 275 maximum 641 .. .. .. .. 12 4 .. .. .. .. .. .. 4 6 14 .. 109 171 110 151 134 75 121 164 335 434 308 258 232 242 386 501 ANNEX Opium/Heroin Guatemala (best estimate) Subtotal (best estimate) ix x 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 38 32 56 50 61 82 16 15 139 134 181 281 156 159 175 175 4,691 1,630 4,520 4,783 4,850 4,620 5,810 8,091 6,841 4,953 4,730 6,983 4,831 6,810 7,732 4,766 OTHER Other countries d (best estimate) TOTAL (best estimate) minimum 3,898 5,789 3,738 5,558 6,202 3,771 maximum 5,581 8,220 5,539 8,052 9,420 5,746 4,730 6,980 4,830 6,810 7,730 4,770 TOTAL best estimate (rounded) 4,690 1,630 4,520 4,780 4,850 4,620 5,810 8,090 6,840 4,950 Sources: Afghanistan: before 2003: UNODC; since 2003: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC. Pakistan: annual report questionaire Government of Pakistan, United States Department of State. Lao People's Democratic Republic: before 2000: UNODC; since 2000: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC. Myanmar: before 2001: United States Department of State; since 2001: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC. Colombia: before 2000: various sources, since 2000: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC. Since 2008, production was calculated based on updated regional yield figures and conversion ratios from United States Department of State/DEA. Mexico: Before 2015: Estimates derived from United States Government surveys; data for 2015 based on cultivation surveys by the national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC; yield ratios based on United States yield studies, conducted 2001-2003 in Mexico; Guatemala: United States Department of State (INCSR 2016). Note: The opium production estimates for Afghanistan for 2006 to 2009 were revised after data quality checks revealed an overestimation of opium yield estimates in those years. Figures in italics are preliminary and may be revised when updated information becomes available. Information on estimation methodologies and definitions can be found in the online methodology section of the present report. a May include areas eradicated after the date of the area survey. 2014 figures are not comparable to 2013 because two provinces were added to the survey and the timing of the survey was different. b Because of continuing low levels of cultivation, figures for Viet Nam (as of 2000) were included in the category "Other countries." c The Government of Mexico does not validate the estimates provided by the United States until 2014, as they are not part of its official figures and it does not have information on the methodology used to calculate them. The Government of Mexico has established, as of 2015, a system to monitor the area under opium poppy cultivation and is in the process of implementing a system, in collaboration with UNODC, to also estimate illicit opium production. Opium production estimates for 2015 are based on (i) the area under cultivation, established by the joint project of the Government of Mexico and UNODC and (ii) yield data, based on yield studies conducted by the United States in Mexico over the 2001-2003 period. The opium production figures shown for 2015 are preliminary and, for methodological reasons, are not comparable with the production figures over the 1998-2014 period. The opium production estimates for 2015, calculated by UNODC, have not been validated by the Government of Mexico.The production figures will be adjusted, once yield data from the joint Mexico/UNODC project entitled "Monitoring of the Illicit Cultivation on Mexican Territory" become available. d Eradication and plant seizure reports from different sources indicate that illicit opium poppy cultivation also exists in the following subregions: North Africa, Central Asia and Transcaucasia, Near and Middle East/SouthWest Asia, South Asia, East and South-East Asia, Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Central America and South America. Starting in 2008, a new methodology was introduced to estimate opium poppy cultivation and opium/heroin production in these countries. These estimates are higher than the previous figures but have a similar order of magnitude. A detailed description of the estimation methodology is available in the online version of the World Drug Report. ANNEX Opium/Heroin Potential manufacture of heroin (of unknown purity) out of global (illicit) opium production, 2004-2015 (tons) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total potential opium production 4,620 5,810 8,091 6,841 4,953 4,730 6,983 4,831 6,810 7,723 4,770 Potential opium not processed into heroin 1,169 1,786 3,078 2,360 1,680 1,728 3,400 1,850 2,600 2,450 1,360 Potential opium processed into heroin 3,451 4,024 5,012 4,481 3,273 3,002 3,583 2,981 4,210 5,273 3,410 Total potential heroin manufacture 472 553 686 600 427 383 467 377 555 542 327 Notes: The calculation shows the potential amount of heroin that could have been manufactured out of the opium produced in a given year; it does not take into account changes in opium inventories, which may be also used for the manufacture of heroin and which may be important. Only in the case of Afghanistan is the proportion of potential opium production not converted into heroin within the country estimated. For all other countries, for the purpose of this table, it is assumed that all opium produced is converted into heroin. If all of the opium produced in Afghanistan in 2015 had been converted into heroin, the total potential heroin manfuacture would have risen to 300 tons in Afghanistan or 447 tons at the global level (the estimates for 2006 to 2009 were revised owing to the revision of opium production figures for Afghanistan). The amount of heroin produced in Afghanistan is calculated using two parameters that may change: (a) the distribution between opium that is not processed and opium processed into heroin; and (b) the conversion ratio. The first parameter is indirectly estimated, based on seizures of opium versus seizures of heroin and morphine reported by neighbouring countries. From 2004 to 2013 a conversion ratio of opium to morphine/heroin of 7:1 was used, based on interviews conducted with Afghan morphine/heroin “cooks”; based on an actual heroin production exercise conducted by two (illiterate) Afghan heroin “cooks”, documented by the German Bundeskriminalamt in Afghanistan in 2003 (published in Bulletin on Narcotics, vol. LVII, Nos. 1 and 2, pp. 11-31, 2005); and UNODC studies on the morphine content of Afghan opium (12.3 per cent over the 2010-2012 period, down from 15 per cent over the 2000-2003 period). The ratio was modified to 18:5 kg of opium for 1 kilogram of 100 per cent pure white heroin hydrochloride, equivalent to a ratio of 9.6:1 for heroin at an estimated 52 per cent export quality (see Afghan Opium Survey 2014); based on an estimated export quality of 59 per cent in 2015, the ratio was adjusted to 11:1 for 2015 (range: 10:4:1 to 11.6:1; see Afghan Opium Survey 2015). The estimates of the export quality of Afghan heroin are based on the average heroin wholesale purities reported by Turkey. For countries other than Afghanistan, a “traditional” conversion ratio of opium to heroin of 10:1 is used. The ratios will be adjusted when improved information becomes available. Figures in italics are preliminary and may be revised when updated information becomes available. WORLD DRUG REPORT 2016 xi xii Reported opium poppy eradication in selected countries, 2005 to 2015 Unit of measurement Afghanistan Algeria Hectares Hectares Azerbaijan Plants Bangladesh Hectares Canada Hectares Canada Plants Ecuador 5,103 2006 2007 15,300 19,047 2008 5,480 2009 5,351 Plants Azerbaijan Colombia 2005 4 Hectares 2,121 Plants 7,500 Egypt Hectares Greece Plants 45 1,929 50 375 98 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2,316 3,810 9,672 7,348 2,692 868 340 204 2,721 7,470 2 0.2 0.4 0.5 201 2,628 34 284 8 22 7 7 60,000 60,000 381 546 711 299 319 514 813 74,555 115,580 257,306 44,200 4,025,800 2,554,865 2,023,385 121 98 222 1 192 60 144 Hectares 489 720 449 536 1,345 918 1,490 590 2,568 1,197 India Hectares 12 247 8,000 624 2,420 3,052 5,746 1,332 865 1,636 1 1 1 140,000 100,000 120,000 Hectares 2 Plants Italy Plants Kazakhstan Plants 1,797 2,007 6,717 1,692 Lao People's Democratic Republic Hectares 2,575 Lebanon Hectares 27 Mexico Hectares 21,609 16,890 11,046 Myanmar Hectares 3,907 3,970 3,598 Nepal Hectares Pakistan Hectares 391 354 Peru Hectares 92 88 1,518 779 575 651 579 662 21 14 4 13,095 14,753 15,491 16,389 4,820 4,087 8,268 21 35 614 0 105 68 28 23 32 21 8 1 3,760 3 Guatemala Iran (Islamic Republic of) Iran (Islamic Republic of) 2015 2,254 707 397 809 6 1 15,726 14,662 21,644 25,959 7,058 23,718 12,288 15,188 13,450 1053 592 568 1,010 605 WORLD DRUG REPORT 2016 Unit of measurement Poland 2005 2006 2007 2008 Hectares Republic of Moldova Plants Republic of Korea Plants Russian Federation Hectares Russian Federation Plants Tajikistan Plants Thailand Hectares Ukraine Hectares Ukraine Plants 2009 2010 2011 2012 32,413 11,255 2013 2014 2015 9 25,369 4 2 3 1 1 1 1 645 110 153 220 285 201 28 Uzbekistan Hectares Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) Hectares Viet Nam Hectares TOTAL Hectares 36,643 TOTAL Plants 7,500 278 13 5,400 103 208 205 264 436 39 1,185,118 474,000 22,800,000 1 1 0.3 154 38 99 31 41,220 44,302 26,088 29,687 - - 74,555 115,580 38 35 25 19 32,392 36,791 52,897 39,551 44,203 1,505,089 140,866 4,666,196 25,483,152 2,154,182 Source: UNODC annual report questionnaire; Government reports; reports of regional bodies; and the United States International Narcotics Control Strategy Report. ANNEX Opium/Heroin xiii