Civil Beat Poll Representative Samples: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (707, Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points) Fielded, May 3 – 5, 2018 --If you vote in the Democratic primary, which candidate are you most likely to support for Governor—David Ige, Clayton Hee, or Colleen Hanabusa? [Name order rotated] Hanabusa 37% Ige 31% Hee 11% None 5% Unsure 16% CROSSTABS Gender Total Male Female Hanabusa 35% 39% Ige 36% 28% Hee 13% 9% None 4% 5% Unsure 12% 20% Total 100% 100% Under 50 Hanabusa 32% Ige 23% Hee 17% None 6% Unsure 22% Total 100% 50 or older 39% 35% 8% 4% 14% 100% 1 Civil Beat Poll 2 Representative Samples: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (707, Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points) Fielded, May 3 – 5, 2018 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed Hanabusa 34% 33% 49% 45% 40% 41% Ige 30% 35% 39% 24% 45% 22% Hee 8% 11% 4% 17% 10% 14% None 4% 8% 2% 3% Unsure 24% 13% 8% 12% 5% 22% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Hanabusa 34% 40% 42% Ige 28% 31% 42% Hee 11% 13% 9% None 3% 1% 4% Unsure 24% 15% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% Democrat Republican Independent Hanabusa 37% 25% 45% Ige 32% 50% 28% Hee 10% 10% 15% None 3% 10% 3% Unsure 19% 5% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% Civil Beat Poll Representative Samples: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (707, Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points) Fielded, May 3 – 5, 2018 College Degree Hanabusa 38% Ige 33% Hee 9% None 3% Unsure 18% Total 100% No college Degree 38% 29% 11% 5% 16% 100% 50k or less 50-100k 100k+ Hanabusa 33% 36% 45% Ige 28% 25% 29% Hee 18% 10% 12% None 2% 6% 3% Unsure 19% 23% 10% Total 100% 100% 100% Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Hanabusa 33% 46% 40% 34% 34% Ige 32% 25% 28% 43% 30% Hee 13% 13% 13% 3% 4% None 7% 2% 8% 6% Unsure 16% 15% 19% 12% 26% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 3 Civil Beat Poll 4 Representative Samples: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (707, Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points) Fielded, May 3 – 5, 2018 If you vote in the Democratic primary, which candidate are you most likely to support for Lieutenant Governor—Bernard Carvalho Jr.; Kim Coco Iwamoto; Will Espero; Josh Green; or Jill Tokuda? [Name order rotated] Espero 8% Carvalho 19% Iwamoto 14% Green 16% Tokuda 11% Unsure 32% CROSSTABS Male Espero Carvalho Iwamoto Green Tokuda Unsure Total Espero Carvalho Iwamoto Green Tokuda Unsure Total 7% 19% 17% 14% 13% 30% 100% Female 9% 19% 11% 17% 11% 34% 100% 50 or Under 50 older 9% 8% 20% 18% 21% 11% 15% 17% 6% 14% 30% 32% 100% 100% Civil Beat Poll 5 Representative Samples: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (707, Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points) Fielded, May 3 – 5, 2018 Espero Carvalho Iwamoto Green Tokuda Unsure Total Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Other/Mixed 6% 6% 27% 11% 10% 9% 15% 19% 22% 30% 15% 18% 7% 19% 2% 18% 10% 18% 24% 12% 16% 12% 5% 9% 10% 18% 10% 7% 15% 8% 39% 26% 22% 23% 45% 39% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Espero Carvalho Iwamoto Green Tokuda Unsure Total Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative 7% 10% 7% 13% 19% 26% 15% 16% 15% 20% 16% 9% 15% 8% 18% 30% 31% 26% 100% 100% 100% Espero Carvalho Iwamoto Green Tokuda Unsure Total Democrat Republican Independent 8% 16% 9% 19% 16% 15% 13% 5% 20% 17% 16% 15% 13% 16% 7% 31% 32% 35% 100% 100% 100% Civil Beat Poll Representative Samples: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (707, Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points) Fielded, May 3 – 5, 2018 Espero Carvalho Iwamoto Green Tokuda Unsure Total College Degree 7% 20% 13% 21% 13% 27% 100% 50k or less Espero Carvalho Iwamoto Green Tokuda Unsure Total Espero Carvalho Iwamoto Green Tokuda Unsure Total 9% 15% 17% 17% 13% 30% 100% No college Degree 12% 14% 14% 9% 12% 39% 100% 50-100k 100k+ 11% 5% 25% 22% 12% 11% 12% 19% 8% 17% 32% 26% 100% 100% Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 10% 11% 7% 2% 2% 17% 14% 12% 24% 55% 14% 22% 6% 6% 23% 12% 15% 41% 10% 2% 12% 15% 11% 9% 36% 22% 24% 50% 18% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 6 Civil Beat Poll 7 Representative Samples: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (707, Margin of Error +/- 3.7 percentage points) Fielded, May 3 – 5, 2018 About the Poll Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 967 registered voters statewide, including 707 likely Democratic Party Primary voters. Calls were made from May 3 – 5, 2018, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling). Cell phones were contacted by live call-agents who asked respondents whether they were willing to participate in a recorded survey. Respondents who gave consent were patched through to the same recorded survey that was sent to landlines. Results were balanced for gender, age, ancestry/ethnicity/race, county of residence, and education level. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points, and for likely Democratic Primary voters is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates and design effect (the effect of weighting results based on demographics) are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result. The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with Merriman River Group, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications.