King County and Seattle Homelessness - Some Facts Final report December 15, 2017 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Media inquiries can be directed to Media_Relations@mckinsey.com Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Executive summary ▪ Homelessness continues to be a growing problem in King County and Seattle – ~12K people experiencing homelessness at a point in time growing at 9% annually – ~18-22K1 households access the CRS each year growing at 11% annually ▪ The CRS has improved, but cannot meet inflow demand owing to a shortage of affordable housing options – There is a current gap of 10-14K2 housing options in Seattle and King County ▪ While funding has grown at 2.4% per annum, it has not kept up with growth in aggregate homelessness. To house all households entered in HMIS would take $360-410M3 per annum or about double today’s funding ▪ The housing options, driven primarily by rental subsidies, and associated estimated costs presented in this analysis represents one possible solution. Alternative solutions should be explored including improved governance and accountability for reducing inflows, ensuring stakeholder buy-in and ensuring efficiency and effectiveness of the CRS 1 HMIS data of 21.7K households experiencing homelessness is best available data as suggested by King County. We have used a range of 18.5-21.7K given potential for duplication in the HMIS and CEA systems and those households not meeting the King County definition of homelessness (e.g., doubled-up households) 2 Using the range of 18.5-21.7k homeless households produces a range of 10-14k gap in housing options 3 Using the range of 18.5-21.7k homeless households produces a range of $360-410M in housing costs. 2 NOTE: 2017 HMIS entries and exits are full-year estimates based on 3 quarters of data Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Context and approach Context ▪ ▪ ▪ This report evaluates the current state of the Crisis Response System and status of the 2016 report recommendations from Barb Poppe and Focus Strategies The work examined homelessness within the context of the broader Affordable Housing landscape in King County The scope included quantifying the cost to house the current population of households experiencing homelessness (as of 2017) emphasizing near-term, costeffective solutions Approach & resources Interviews, Meetings and Trainings Local and National Reports Data sources Syndication 3 Contents Size and drivers of homelessness in King County System performance and challenges Toward a solution 4 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. In the last three years, homelessness in King County has increased significantly faster (9.2% per year) than the overall population (1.6% per yr) CAGR King County homeless population at a given point in time, Individuals counted in PIT, Thousands Unsheltered Homeless Sheltered Homeless King County population Individuals, Millions Not Experiencing Poverty Experiencing Poverty 9.2% 1.6% 11.6 26.1% 1.8% 1.6% 2.1 2.2 1.9 8.9 7.9 47% 31% 28% 2007 2014 20171 10% 11% 9% 2007 2014 2016 1 PIT count methodology updated in 2017; 2 Latest available population estimates from Census SOURCE: PIT Counts reported to HUD (2006-2017); King County PIT Count 2017 administered by All Home; Population data from US Census 5 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. 69% of respondents in the 2017 Point in Time Count Survey became homeless in King County and have lived here for more than one year Location where respondent became homeless 91% became homeless in Washington 687 42 (5%) 158 63 (7%) 32 (4%) Out of State 53 (6%) WA state, not King County 73 (9%) King County 582 (69%) More than 1 year Less than 1 year Time lived in King County SOURCE: 2017 PIT Count Survey, n=845 6 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Several factors linked are to homelessness and may vary by sub-population Self-reported cause of homelessness Common Risk Characteristics and populations impacted % respondents1 Common risk characteristics1 30 Lost Job 20 Alcohol or Drug Use Eviction 11 Divorce/ Separation/ Breakup 8 Mental Health Issues 8 Argument with a Friend/ Family Member 8 Incarceration 7 Could Not Afford Rent Increase Family/ Friend’s Housing Wouldn’t Let Me Stay 6 Adults Families Veterans YYA Less access to housing Poor social networks 9 Illness/ Medical Problems Populations most affected Exposure to domestic violence, abuse Respondents provided most immediate, proximal cause rather than system root causes Behavioral or mental health issues Previous incarceration in the justice system Repeated or extended deployments 6 Self-identify as LGBTQ Family/ Domestic Violence 6 Experience with institutional or foster care Other 6 1 Respondents could select more than one option; does not include options that received less than 6% total responses (e.g., Exiting foster care). Full detail in Appendix SOURCE: Opening Doors: Federal Strategic Plan to Prevent and End Homelessness, 2015; American Community Survey 2016, 2017 King County Point in Time Count 7 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Racial inequities are also present in rates of homelessness Percent of population by race 1% 4% 1% Rate difference in general and homeless population 6% Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 2x 6% American Indian or Alaskan Native 6x Other 2% 6% 0% 15% 16% - Multiple Races 3x Black or AfricanAmerican 5x 29% 66% Asian 0.1x White 0.7x 2% 45% General Population Experiencing Homelessness Even controlling for poverty, racial disparities still exist SOURCE: American Community Survey, 2017 King County Point in Time Count 8 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Yet, the strongest correlation with homelessness is the increase in King County rents over the same period of time, leading to an affordability crisis PIT Count FMR CAGR King County Homeless Population and King County Fair Market Rent for Studio Unit Individuals counted in PIT, Thousands; Unit rents in USD 12.3% 11,643 $1,200 $1,000 $800 12,000 10,000 8,949 7,902 8,000 $600 6,000 $400 4,000 $200 Rent $0 2,000 Persons 0 2007 2014 SOURCE: PIT Counts reported to HUD (2006-2017); King County PIT Count 2017 administered by All Home; Fair Market Rents from HUD 2017 9 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Historically, Seattle’s median rent was affordable to households at 90-120% AMI 60% -90% 90% - 120% 120%-150% Percent of Area Median Income needed to afford median rent1 by zip code December 2011 AMI2: $86,800 1 As measured by Zillow Rent Index, see appendix for details; data from zip code 98134 in the Industrial District has been suppressed due to too few residential rentals 2 AMI shown here is for a household size of 4, and reported as an annual figure. HUD Considers rent to be affordable if it consumes 30% or less of a household's income. 10 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Historically, Seattle’s median rent was affordable to households at 90-120% AMI 60% -90% 90% - 120% 120%-150% Percent of Area Median Income needed to afford median rent1 by zip code December 2014 2011 AMI2: $88,200 $86,800 1 As measured by Zillow Rent Index, see appendix for details; data from zip code 98134 in the Industrial District has been suppressed due to too few residential rentals 2 AMI shown here is for a household size of 4, and reported as an annual figure. HUD Considers rent to be affordable if it consumes 30% or less of a household's income. 11 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Historically, Seattle’s median rent was affordable to households at 90-120% AMI 60% -90% 90% - 120% 120%-150% Percent of Area Median Income needed to afford median rent1 by zip code December 2017 2011 2014 AMI2: $96,000 $86,800 $88,200 1 As measured by Zillow Rent Index, see appendix for details; data from zip code 98134 in the Industrial District has been suppressed due to too few residential rentals 2 AMI shown here is for a household size of 4, and reported as an annual figure. HUD Considers rent to be affordable if it consumes 30% or less of a household's income. 12 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Unit growth in King County will not meet demand for 0-50% AMI households Total Supply of Affordable rental units for 0-50% AMI households in King County Thousands of Units 124.4 116.2 ~40K Households at risk of falling into homelessness 21.7 Households experiencing homelessness3 60.7 68.6 21.3 Supply Today Downrented units 8.2 Additional HALA units (expected)1,4 8.2 94.5 Supply Gap Demand Today Demand Growth2 1 Includes 4%, 9% Low Income Housing Tax Credits, Preservation, and SEDU / Congregates; excludes any HALA expected units above 50% AMI 2 Assumes 1% population increase year over year per King County predictions and constant percentage of renters to owners 3 Assumes that all households experiencing homelessness are part of the 0-50% AMI tier 4 Additional affordable units may become available through other housing initiatives outside of HALA in greater King County NOTE: 2017 HMIS entries and exits are full-year estimates based on 3 quarters of data SOURCE: King County Comprehensive Plan, Housing Appendix; HALA report; HALA Gap Analysis (6000-9000-5000) Final; Team analysis Future Demand (2025) 13 Contents Size and drivers of homelessness in King County System performance and challenges Toward a solution 14 Dec 15, 2017. 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The Crisis Response System has implemented 5/10 recommended improvements with the rest in progress Required type of system change Recommendation Policy Operational Implemented Partially implemented Status General Create a distinct Crisis Response System Act with urgency and boldness (e.g., Align funders to adopt Focus Strategy recommendations; Implement Minimum Standards) Leadership, Funding, and Governance Establish action oriented Governance structure1 Ensure data informed funding decisions Ensure adequate data analysis System Performance Improvement Use outreach and Coordinated Entry for All (CEA) to Target Unsheltered Persons Expand Shelter Diversion/More Effective Targeting of Prevention Resources Improve Effectiveness of Shelters in Exiting People to Permanent Housing Invest in More Effective Interventions: Expand Rapid Re-Housing and Eliminate Low Performing Projects More Strategic Use of Permanent Affordable Housing2 1 While All Home has implemented structural changes including creation of subcommittees, reduction of providers on the coordinating board, and enforcement of conflict of interest policy, there may be further opportunities to improve action-orientation 2 Most action steps have been taken besides the delay of the Housing Resource Center SOURCE:All Home System Transformation Implementation Plan, All Home Governance and Committee Meeting Notes 15 Dec 15, 2017. 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The Crisis Response System includes three separate government entities with many overlapped or redundant responsibilities Role Functions City County All Home ▪ Identify key metrics; set targets and ▪ All Home has minimum standards Set policy and strategic direction influence but not authority and is therefore not fully empowered or accountable to drive change ▪ Craft new system elements (diversion, outreach team, housing navigators, etc) ▪ Establish program criteria (e.g. reducing barriers) ▪ Set rules for prioritizing clients and resources ▪ With decision making (e.g CEA policy, diversion eligibility ) spread across multiple bodies, the system lacks agility to quickly implement change ▪ Provide training and facilitate gathering Provider input Manage supportive functions ▪ Manage data and infrastructure (HMIS and CEA) ▪ Coordinate with other agencies (e.g. behavioral health, foster care) Allocate funding ▪ Manage contracts ▪ Track outcomes ▪ Re-allocate/ prioritize funding based on ▪ Critical tasks (e.g., ? CEA) require coordination between bodies hosted in different agencies increasing complexity outcomes SOURCE: Interviews with All Home, County, City, Team Analysis 16 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Multi-channel Crisis Response System funding makes coordination and rapid adjustment difficult $ of funding (millions) % of total intervention funding Majority investor King County City of Seattle HUD CoC1 Total2 Emergency Services 3.8 (12%) 26.0 (85%) 0.8 (3%) 30.6 (100%) Transitional Housing 0.7 (11%) 3.5 (53%) 2.4 (36%) 6.5 (100%) Permanent Housing 26.7 (44%) 8.9 (15%) 25.6 (42%) 61.2 (100%) Rapid ReHousing 3.8 (31%) 5.5 (44%) 3.1 (25%) 12.4 (100%) Prevention 6.4 (100%) 0.0 (0%) 0.0 (0%) 6.4 (100%) Other 2.1 (22%) 3.8 (39%) 3.8 (39%) 9.7 (100%) Access & Supportive Services 0.0 (0%) 12.0 (100%) 0.0 (0%) 12.0 (100%) HEN (Housing & Essential Needs) 9.8 (100%) 0.0 (0%) 0.0 (0%) 9.8 (100%) Coordinated Entry2 1.6 (69%) 0.7 (31%) 0.0 (0%) 2.3 (100%) 54.9 (36%) 60.3 (40%) 35.7 (24%) 150.9 (100%) Total reported through funding entities3 Other (i.e., remaining federal and philanthropy) 44.7 Multiple funding sources may create duplicative proposals and reporting for providers and duplicative RFP processes for funders 195.6 1 2017 HUD McKinney Continuum of Care Final Priority Order; Prioritized by All Home, administered by City and County; does not include CoC funds that go directly to Seattle and King County 2 Includes funding for Regional Access Points and Housing Navigators 3 Does not include additional Federal Funding issued outside of the CoC such as Housing Authority dollars; does not include private funding sources; King County and City of Seattle budgets include federal and state pass through funds. SOURCE: Source 2017 King County Budget, 2017 City of Seattle Budget, 2017 HUD McKinney Continum of Care Final Priority Order 17 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. And its performance has improved significantly -- with a 35% increase since 2016 following report recommendations Annual growth of exits from homelessness Total exits to permanent stable housing, 2014-17 Households, Thousands 9 +35% 8 7 6 8.1 +13% 6.0 5.2 5 4.7 4 3 2 1 0 2014 2015 2016 20171 1 Projected based on run rate for first three quarters of 2017 NOTE: 2017 HMIS entries and exits are full-year estimates based on 3 quarters of data SOURCE: All Home Coordinating Board dashboard (excludes prevention) accessed 12/11/2017 18 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. …however the gap of ~10-14K housing options to meet today’s demand may constrain a continued growth in exits High service needs Low service needs Comparison of housing demand and outflow capacity Households needing affordable units annually, housing options (thousands) annually 19-224,2 Lower service needs (do not require PSH) ~10-14K 15-17 Gap in permanent affordable housing3 8 High service needs (require PSH)1 8 ~4 <0.5 Households experiencing homelessness1 Affordable, available, and/or subsidized housing options2 1 4224 Chronically homeless households as reported by King County based on CEA data; 2 Assumes that homeless persons seeking spots/units for very low-income housing (0-50% AMI) secure those units with equal likelihood as other low-income households; assumes no overlap between subsidies and units at the 0-50% AMI level; assumes upper bound of confidence interval on “Other Affordable”; thus, this is conservative estimate and value is likely lower; 3 For those households not able to secure an affordable, available, and/or subsidized unit, additional options include doubling up or securing an unaffordable unit, 4 HMIS data of 21.7K households experiencing homelessness is best available data as suggested by King County. We have used a 15% range of 18.5-21.7K given potential for duplication in the HMIS and CEA systems and those households not meeting the King County definition of homelessness (e.g., doubled-up households) 2 Note figures don't add due to rounding NOTE: 2017 HMIS entries and exits are full-year estimates based on 3 quarters of data SOURCE: King County; 2016 HUD Inventory Count; 2016 American Community Survey; Team Analysis 19 Contents Size and drivers of homelessness in King County System performance and challenges Toward a solution 20 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Investments in a portfolio of mutually reinforcing system elements are necessary to make homelessness rare, brief, and one-time Legend System layers Crisis response Management infrastructure Stability resources Community ecosystem Intake/ Assess- Shelter ment Diversion SOURCE: Expert interviews Housing search support 21 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Funding for the Crisis Response System has not kept pace with the growth in households experiencing homelessness Growth in Households entered in HMIS Households, Thousands Growth in reported funding $, Millions Philanthropic, (-15% CAGR) 2.4% 11.0% 21.7 182.0 12.1 23.6 15.9 23.8 195.6 7.4 13.6 State, (-17% CAGR) 21.2 Federal (7% CAGR) County, (-4% CAGR) Local, (9% CAGR) CAGR 40.0 31.1 113.4 91.4 2014 2017 2014 NOTE: 2017 HMIS entries and exits are full-year estimates based on 3 quarters of data SOURCE: King County Inflow Data (2014-2017), 2015 All Home Strategic Plan, 2017 Seattle Times Funding Analysis Our largest source of funding is HUD grants 2017 22 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. A combination of strategies are needed to ensure adequate access to housing within King County Existing exits Incremental exits High-service needs/PSH Exit homelessness…. Remaining unit gap $ Costs (millions) … into permanent housing Exits to stable housing (assuming sufficient housing options) Households, K 4.0 Not high-service needs Housing options needed for those exiting system (assuming sufficient exits from homelessness) Options, K 4.0 4.4 ~$360-410M 3.6-4.2 7.7 10.313.6 14.917.2 18.5-21.7K households entering HMIS 10-14K gap in housing options3 0.5-0.6 1.4 5.2-7.8 8.1 3.2-3.8 2017 system exits System improvements Existing PSH residents $104 $21-28 $92 2017 Households2 Improved PSH and turnover Currently available options (nonPSH) Diversion supported double-up Housing Resource Center Additional non-PSH housing options needed Additional PSH options needed $3 $63-93 $74-891 1 Calculated based on scattered-site PSH costs ($23,270/HH inclusive of rent assistance and services and admin) , however a mixed model of scattered-site and dedicated PSH units would be optimal and may be higher cost 2 HMIS data of 21.7K households experiencing homelessness is best available data as suggested by King County. We have used a 15% range of 18.5-21.7K given potential for duplication in the HMIS and CEA systems and those households not meeting the King County definition of homelessness (e.g., doubled-up households) 3 The housing options and associated estimated costs presented here represents one possible solution. Alternative solutions should be explored (e.g., building housing) NOTE: 2017 HMIS entries and exits are full-year estimates based on 3 quarters of data 23 SOURCE: All Home Quarterly Dashboard, 2017 Point in Time Count, King County PSH scattered-site data (1/18); All Home Inflow estimates, McKinsey team Analysis Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Reducing inflow rates into homelessness is critical to stemming cost growth Non-PSH Incremental Rental Assistance Incremental CRS Spend Incremental PSH Spend CRS spend today Cost Trajectory for Tiered Rental Subsidies1,2 assuming no inflow growth, $, M CAGR Cost Trajectory for Tiered Rental Subsidies1,2 assuming 9% inflow growth, $, M ~3.4% 416-481 ~(0.4)% 356-408 348-400 356-408 63-93 61-88 63-93 74-89 76-96 74-89 84-106 24-31 15-20 24-31 27-35 196 196 196 196 Year 1 Year 5 Year 1 Year 5 109-145 1 Assumes no cost change over time 2 Cost data presented assuming an 18.5- 21.7K households entering homelessness in 2017. NOTE: 2017 HMIS entries and exits are full-year estimates based on 3 quarters of data SOURCE: All Home Quarterly Dashboard, 2017 Point in Time Count,, King County PSH scattered-site data (1/18); All Home Inflow estimates, McKinsey team Analysis 24 Dec 15, 2017. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY: Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Ours is not the only city facing a homelessness crisis – currently there are ~94,000 people experiencing homelessness across major West Coast cities 1 UHY: Unaccompanied Homeless Youth; 2 San Mateo county is Daly/San Mateo County CoC, 3 Santa Clara is San Jose/Santa Clara City & County CoC, 4 Per capita homelessness is PIT count per 10,000 people given most recent population estimates SOURCE: PIT Survey 2017 25