Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan June 2018 Table of Contents Secretary’s Letter p. 3 Introduction p. 4 Vulnerabilities and Actions p. 5 Appendices • • • • • • Appendix A – DCNR Climate Change Strategy Appendix B – Methodology Appendix C – Bureau Adaptation Plans Appendix D - Topical Adaptation Plans Appendix E – Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species Appendix F – Resources Acknowledgements p. 16 p. 18 p. 21 p. 45 p. 49 p. 51 p. 53 2 Dear Citizens: As Pennsylvania’s conservation leader, the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources is taking action to ensure a commonwealth that is resilient to a changing climate. During 2017, staff members from across all of DCNR’s bureaus participated in a rigorous process to determine and prioritize the department’s greatest climate change vulnerabilities, and identify strategies to address them. The resulting Climate Change Adaptation Plan includes objectives to prepare for and mitigate the risks associated with potential climate impacts to Pennsylvania, including higher temperatures and more extreme weather events, range shifts for wildlife and plant species, and an increase in invasive species. Over the next year, we will begin to implement recommendations to increase staff knowledge and expertise on climate change challenges and solutions through a newly-formed communication and education team. To test adaptive management practices on the ground, we are launching a climate change adaptation pilot project on public lands in the southcentral part of the state, including the 85,000acre Michaux State Forest, and Kings Gap, Pine Grove Furnace and Caledonia state parks. We also will continue our significant work over the past several years on energy conservation and renewable energy in our hundreds of buildings and vehicle fleet, and our leadership of the movement to plant trees along streams to improve water quality and address impacts from climate change. With this plan, we are laying a framework for a more resilient and sustainable Pennsylvania. I encourage you to join us in creating a vibrant commonwealth that is environmentally responsible, and focused on solutions to a changing climate. Sincerely, Cindy Adams Dunn Secretary Department of Conservation and Natural Resources 3 Introduction The Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR) is the caretaker of 2.2 million acres of state forests, 121 state parks, advisor to the owners of 15 million acres of private forest land, is a leader in providing outdoor recreation, and the state’s primary conservation agency. DCNR’s mission is to conserve and sustain Pennsylvania’s natural resources for present and future generations, giving the department a unique role and responsibility in helping the commonwealth reduce and adapt to climate change. The department’s land management practices can mitigate atmospheric carbon as well as ensure that our public lands remain resilient and can adapt to climate change. DCNR can also be a leader, serving as an example of climate-smart land management, green infrastructure development, and providing technical assistance and funding to help its constituents deal with climate change. While climate change presents some very significant challenges, there is much we can do to both limit its effects and cope with the impacts. This plan provides an overview of the current and projected impacts of climate change on DCNR’s lands and mission. It also lays out a framework for implementing the department’s climate change strategy (see Appendix A), by reducing atmospheric carbon and building resilience to the inevitable impacts of climate change. Climate Change in Pennsylvania Pennsylvania has seen measurable changes in temperature, precipitation, and storm intensity. Since the early 20th century, the commonwealth has seen a temperature increase of more than 1.8° F. Winter temperatures have risen even faster, increasing 1.3 °F per decade from 1970 to 2000 in the northeast U.S. The frequency of very hot days has also increased significantly. Record high temperatures in the U.S. in 2017 outnumbered record lows by 9:1, and by the middle of the century the northeastern part of the country is expected to see 20-30 more days above 90° F. Annual precipitation has increased about 10 percent over the past 100 years, and heavy precipitation events also have increased significantly. According to the 2014 National Climate Assessment, the heaviest downpours, which are the number of days where the total precipitation exceeded the top 1 percent of all rain and snow days, have increased by 71 percent in the Northeast. Looking to the future, Pennsylvania is projected to be as much as 5.4 °F warmer by the middle of this century than it was at the end of the last century if emissions aren’t curtailed significantly. Additionally, precipitation is expected to increase by 8 percent annually and by an additional 14 percent during the winter. 4 Vulnerabilities and Actions A team of more than 80 DCNR staff worked with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science to evaluate data on current and projected impacts to identify the department’s top climate change vulnerabilities. Using a structured decision-making process, vulnerabilities were ranked based on their likelihood and severity (See Appendix B – Methodology). The team developed detailed adaptation strategies for the Bureaus of Forestry, State Parks, Facility Design and Construction, Recreation and Conservation, and Topographic and Geologic Survey (see Appendix C – Bureau Adaptation Plans). Additionally, adaptation strategies were developed for riparian buffers and emergency management (see Appendix D – Topical Adaptation Plans). From that detailed analysis and list of adaptation strategies, the following list of major department-wide vulnerabilities and general recommendations to address them emerged. Natural Resources Interacting stressors such as insect pests, pathogens, and climate change will be, and are, affecting native trees and plants, animals, and rare and endangered species. These changes could lead to disruption of ecosystem processes and functions; changes in the timing of natural cycles; loss of diversity in native trees, shrubs, and understory plants; shifts in forest community composition; and impacts on the commonwealth’s forest products industry. Changing Forest Composition. Species composition is expected to change due to the decline of some species, increases in others, hybridization, and immigration of southern species. Adding to these stressors are forest regeneration failures compounded by previous land use changes and forest fragmentation that impedes the movement of species. As conditions continue to change, decisions will need to be made as to which tree species the department manages for, which may be difficult to determine since species that will thrive in future conditions may not do well now. Actions • • • To distribute risk, reducing the likelihood that an entire system will decline, maintain and enhance species and structural diversity, and retain biological legacies such as old or rare trees, disease-resistant survivors, and unique natural communities. Sustain ecological functions, species diversity, and diverse age classes in forests. Facilitate forest community changes by: o Favoring native tree species and genotypes that are expected to be adapted to future conditions o Managing for species with wide moisture and temperature tolerances o Establishing new mixes of native species o Moving at-risk species to locations that are expected to provide suitable habitat when practicable o Guiding change in species compositions during the early stages of stand development. 5 • • • • • • Allow for areas of natural regeneration to test for future-adapted species. Introduce new tree species that are better adapted to future conditions, but only to fill ecological or economic gaps created by the loss of native trees, and only after careful scientific analysis of potential impacts on the ecosystem. Reduce tree densities through silvicultural thinning, focusing on trees likely to be illsuited to future climate conditions, thereby making more space available for trees better adapted to a warmer climate. Prioritize these treatments based on funding. Permit the use of seeds, germplasm, and other genetic material from across a greater geographic range. Utilize assisted migration when warranted and only after stringent scientific review. Use forest impact models, such as the U.S. Forest Service’s Climate Change Tree Atlas, to inform decisions on tree management and planting. Rare Species. Populations of rare, threatened, and endangered species, especially those near the edge of their range in Pennsylvania, are expected to decline faster and possibly disappear because of climate change and other stressors. Additionally, some species that are common now could become rare and new species may move into the state. Decisions will need to be made as to whether those new species should be listed as rare, threatened or endangered. Actions • • • • • • • • Identify plant and animal species in Pennsylvania that are most at risk from climate change based on analyses using the Climate Change Vulnerability Index. Review and expand monitoring to ensure that changes in natural communities, species distribution, and populations are detected. Identify and conserve species, natural communities, and unique sites at risk from climate change. Consider establishing reserves for at-risk or displaced species. Manage habitats over a range of sites and conditions to increase ecosystem redundancy across the landscape. Work with other state and federal agencies, land conservancies, and scientific institutions across a species range to ensure a holistic approach to conservation. Develop conservation plans for new species moving into the state and declining populations of once common species. Maintain and enhance genetic diversity, thereby increasing the likelihood that a species will be able to withstand climate change. Forest Pests. More frequent, severe, and widespread forest pest outbreaks will result in increased tree mortality and management and treatment costs. Forest pests will influence forest composition, and the loss of some tree and understory species may reduce the diversity of the current forest. Controlling these pests increases a forest’s ability to withstand and adapt to climate change. Actions • Identify and prioritize high-value forests to monitor for new/existing threats. 6 • • • • Include the effects of climate change on long-term forest sustainability when developing pest response plans by using forest impact models (e.g., Tree Atlas, Landis). Manage for a diversity of species and forest types in landscapes that have seen significant damage and mortality from forest pests to increase resilience to climate change. Manage herbivory to promote regeneration of desired species. When necessary, evaluate whether manipulating the density, structure, or species composition of a forest may improve its ability to resist biological stressors. Invasive Plant Species. As the climate changes, new invasive species are expected to move into the commonwealth and those already here will increase in abundance. These invasives will further reduce the resilience of species and habitats to the impacts of climate change and may reduce diversity or contribute to species extirpation. In aquatic ecosystems, invasive species increase the potential for choked waterways, fish kills, toxic water, and harmful algae blooms. In terrestrial ecosystems, invasives may disrupt succession as they outcompete native tree regeneration in the understory and will influence fuel conditions and fuel loads for fires. Controlling them will require a significant increase in man hours and funding. Actions • • • • • Use existing decision-making processes and DCNR’s Invasive Plant Management for Land Managers guide to prioritize invasive species for removal or control. Work with the PA Natural Heritage Program and the PA Invasive Species Council to identify new species coming from other states. Investigate new methods of invasive species control, including biocontrol agents. Increase funding for invasive vegetation removal and suppression. Work with other state agencies responsible for land management (e.g. PennDOT, Dept. of Military and Veterans Affairs, etc.) to develop and adopt statewide invasive species best management practices. Habitat Connectivity and Landscape-Scale Conservation Climate impacts are expected to vary across the landscape according to elevation, topography, aspect, slope, and other variables. Some areas will see significant impacts, while more resistant habitats will become increasingly important for conservation planning and may influence where and how conservation dollars are spent. This will necessitate changes in land conservation priorities to create an interconnected system of habitats that allow species to move north and to higher elevations in response to climate change. Actions • • Conserve key tracts of land through acquisitions, easements, and stewardship plans to ensure habitat connectivity and potential migration corridors. Prioritize grant funding that addresses climate change impacts on species and natural communities, such as connecting parcels that facilitate the movement of species. 7 • • Maintain or create refugia - areas that have resisted (or could potentially resist) widespread climatic changes and that often support relict populations of rare species. Identify and conserve biological legacies and unique ecological sites. Geologic Hazards There will be an increased demand for data and technical assistance due to the impacts of climate change. Public education and outreach will become more important because of increased flooding, drought, dry wells, sinkholes, and other impacts. Hazard prediction, data collection, mapping, hydrographic modeling, and database updates will all be needed. Current staffing levels will be insufficient to meet the increased demand for technical assistance. Actions • • • • Develop research projects that look for relationships between the timing and intensity of weather events and sinkholes and landslides. Develop science-based key messages dealing with geologic hazards for multiple audiences. Be prepared to respond to unanticipated novel issues. Create detailed information and maps on subsurface geology, particularly faults, stratigraphy, and reservoir characteristics. Recreation Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on the types of recreation that occur in state parks and state forests, as well as the length of the recreation season. This in turn will increase the impact of recreation on natural resources and require changes in staffing needs throughout the year. Fluctuating lake levels. Hotter summers may increase demand for water-based recreation and at the same time result in lower lake levels due to increased evaporation and the potential for drought conditions. The potential inability to sustain normal water levels during the peak recreation season could impact boating, swimming, fishing, marinas, and white-water rafting. The situation would be even worse if water withdrawals are needed to maintain downstream flow levels and even result in park closures. Actions • • • • Work with other agencies that control water releases, such as the Army Corps of Engineers, river basin commissions etc., to maintain water levels and time water releases to minimize impacts on recreation. Consider other options for water-based recreation, such as additional swimming pools and splash areas, alternatives to watercraft-based recreation, and shifting the recreational focus from dammed lakes to natural flowing streams. Reevaluate appropriate boating restrictions. Develop and/or retrofit park lakeshore infrastructure to be adaptable to changing pool depths. 8 Extended recreation season. A longer recreation season will result in increased visitor impact on natural resources and increased stress on ecosystem components. Very hot days during the summer may result in some parks exceeding visitor carrying capacity and turning visitors away or closing. Additionally, the winter period during which maintenance and special projects are conducted will become shorter. More staff and resources will be needed to deal with these impacts. Actions • • • Determine recreational sustainability and develop and apply recreational and resource carrying capacities. Limit access or types of uses in sensitive or high-use areas to minimize impacts Design greater flexibility in scheduling seasonal employees. Investigate other avenues for flexible staffing (e.g. alternate full-time position, staggered work seasons, permanent part-time employees, etc.). Limited winter recreation. Milder winters will lead to less winter recreation such as ice fishing, ice skating, snowmobiling, and cross-country skiing. The bureau will need to re-evaluate how money is allocated to winter recreation, as well as how it allocates personnel resources. Actions • • Reallocate funds to better match recreation demand and opportunities based on climate modelling and surveys. Expand specialized park (e.g. ski resorts) operations to incorporate warm-weather recreation in other seasons, thereby reducing impacts in low-snow years. Flooding Very heavy precipitation and flooding have increased significantly in Pennsylvania, and that is expected to continue. Infrastructure potentially at risk includes dams, trails, roads and bridges, historical and cultural resources, and park buildings. Extreme rain events can also affect groundwater supply and reduce water quality below public thresholds for recreational use. Flooding may also lead to the closing of recreational facilities, strand park visitors, cause lakeshore and streambank erosion, sedimentation, and increase water treatment costs. These impacts are already being felt, and without existing federal funding to address them, several parks would have already been closed. Actions • • • • Evaluate trends in 50-year, 100-year, and 500-year floods. Protect and restore floodplain and riparian wetlands to maximize floodwater storage and groundwater recharge. Utilize technologies and best management practices that decrease stormwater runoff. Design infrastructure to be more resilient to flooding and stormwater runoff. 9 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • When awarding grants, evaluate a site’s propensity to flood and ensure that infrastructure improvements funded by the department are appropriate for the location or will be armored to make them resilient to flooding. Reroute roads out of floodplains when practicable. Avoid rebuilding in flood prone areas. Pave bridge approaches with asphalt in vulnerable areas and armor the bank slope with riprap to reduce the possibility of washout. Use alternative crossing structures designed to be overtopped and that can withstand impacts by woody debris or ice during floods. Identify bridges that are susceptible to flooding and monitor them during large storm events. Deploy flood-proofing on existing high-risk bridges. Incorporate flood-proof designs, such as reinforced bridge abutments, during bridge replacement projects so that they can handle larger flows and accumulation of debris. Redesign bridges using flow rates based on the most recent data or bankfull totals. Evaluate lake water depths every 2-3 years to identify shallow areas that need maintenance and dredge lakes to remove sedimentation if necessary. Develop communication materials for the public about flooding issues and why we don't rebuild in flood-prone areas. Evaluate trail systems and make them more resilient to flooding and stormwater runoff. Assess and replace undersized drainage pipes, culverts, and stormwater conveyance systems that contribute to flooding and erosion issues. Evaluate the hydraulic capacities of dams, and where needed and practicable increase the size of the spillway or provide overtopping protection for earthen dam embankments. Remove dams no longer serving their intended purpose. Collaborate with DEP to evaluate and identify the high-hazard dams with the highest potential for overtopping and failure. Develop a prioritized list of those that need to be rehabilitated. Evaluate and characterize Pennsylvania’s aquifers and their properties for modeling future impacts. Lakes and Streams Warmer air temperatures and changing hydrologic patterns are expected to result in warmer water temperatures, increased variability in lake levels, and changes in the duration and timing of ice cover. Higher water temperatures can also lead to changes in acidification, dissolved oxygen levels, productivity, destratification, and more, potentially resulting in a reduction or shift in keystone species. Riparian areas also face several threats including warming stream temperatures, erosion and scouring due to heavy rain events, invasive species, and the decline of hemlock, which functions as thermal cover. Actions • Use the Bureau of Forestry’s Riparian Buffer Guidelines and Brook Trout Conservation Plan to maintain coldwater habitat. 10 • • • • • • • • • • • Install low-level water releases on dams when completing major rehabilitation projects to release cooler water from deeper in the lake and help lower downstream temperatures. Assess and prioritize old dams lacking bottom release, with the ultimate goal of removal. Deploy monitoring equipment to determine impacts to lake and stream chemistry and temperature. Work with the Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission to determine if state park and state forest fisheries are being impacted. Ensure culverts, bridges and stream crossings allow for connectivity of cold-water stream communities. Improve water quality and habitat for native aquatic flora and fauna through the elimination of impoundments having minimal recreational / operational value. Restore and enhance hydrologic connectivity between riparian areas and the surrounding landscape. Moderate stream temperature warming by increasing stream shading, especially in areas of cool water habitat such as low-order headwater streams. Protect and restore native riparian forests and vegetative cover to conserve species at risk of decline, such as stream-side salamanders, and to increase water retention and uptake of soils to reduce the impacts of flood events, erosion, and sedimentation. Plant species expected to be better adapted to future conditions by favoring currently present species that have wide ecological amplitude and can persist under a wide variety of climate and site conditions. Prioritize riparian restoration on streams that are most likely to retain cool, late-summer flows. Wildfire and Severe Weather Increased frequency of wildfire, blowdowns, and other natural disturbances will create challenges for operations and public safety. Damage to trails and roads in State Parks or State Forests could result in stranded visitors, and repeated events may lead to long-term loss of access to some areas. Compared to the western U.S., fire has not been a major disturbance in Pennsylvania, but that is likely to change. There is already evidence of an extended fire season, with fires now happening year-round, not just in spring and fall. The demand for state resources to deal with emergency management, including assistance to the West and South Fire Compacts, is expected to increase. Actions • • • • Reduce the severity or extent of disturbance by altering forest structure or composition to reduce the risk of wildfire or storm damage. Prepare for intensifying disturbances by developing plans in advance, thereby, allowing a faster and better coordinated response. Use drought monitoring and fire modelling to predict wildfire risk and danger. Promptly revegetate sites after a disturbance. 11 • • • • • • • Build capacity to respond to fire hazards by training more staff and volunteers. Increase resources for responding to disturbances, including trained firefighters and equipment for salvage and wildfire suppression. Develop protocols for incorporating climate change into restoration planning after natural disasters, including salvage where necessary and appropriate, revegetation, and invasive plant monitoring and management. Restore fire to fire-adapted ecosystems and use prescribed fire to conduct fuel mitigation in wildland urban interface areas for fire-wise communities. Establish fuel breaks to slow the spread of catastrophic fire. Provide Incident Command System (ICS) training to personnel throughout the department to ensure appropriate levels of staffing during emergency events. Continue to coordinate with PEMA and other state and local agencies to increase response effectiveness. Energy Conservation and Sustainable Design Infrastructure will be significantly challenged by higher temperatures, increased flooding, and periodic drought. Higher temperatures will increase energy demand, and building envelopes and HVAC systems designed at today’s standards may not be able to satisfactorily perform under these conditions. Alternating droughts and heavy rain may reduce the quality and/or quantity of ground and surface water used as drinking water sources. These water sources may have higher concentrations of pathogenic microorganisms, algae, minerals, or contaminants, making them unsafe or resulting in poor taste and odors. Actions • • • • • • Use sustainable site selection criteria when developing new infrastructure to minimize impacts. Develop and enforce more stringent building design and energy conservation standards that will perform well under increasing temperature extremes throughout a building’s life-span. Implement energy reduction strategies such as automated lighting controls, occupant energy waste reductions, and increased use of renewable energy sources. Implement passive solar and solar thermal conservation strategies such as roof overhangs, tinted glazing, highly insulated windows, mass wall construction, low-heat absorbing materials, and expanded landscaping to help control glare, limit thermal gain/loss, and moderate the impact of temperature extremes on indoor environment. Prioritize the use of geothermal systems that utilize constant ground temperatures not impacted by outside weather extremes instead of using air heat pumps or fossil fuel burning systems for heating and cooling. Implement preventative maintenance schedules and re- or retro-commissioning of building systems to ensure operation at peak design and efficiency. 12 • • • Utilize proper well-head protection methods to minimize the risk of groundwater contamination. Tie into municipal water systems when possible to avoid the need to treat water and to minimize the amount of distribution lines in state parks. Increase the frequency of system operator inspections for DCNR water distribution systems (annually at minimum), and identify and repair systems with excessive losses. Resource Management and Planning While climate change impacts are already being felt in Pennsylvania, the most serious effects are yet to come. Integrating climate change into decision-making processes will ensure that our state parks, state forests, infrastructure, and DCNR’s core functions are resilient to climate change. Actions • • • • • Incorporate climate change considerations into grant selection criteria, stewardship plans, infrastructure planning, and landscape-level projects and programs. Consider modifying grant scoring criteria to favor applications that evaluate climate change impacts such as flooding, drought, changes in recreation seasons, etc. Develop monitoring programs to track the impacts of climate change and DCNR’s adaptation efforts. Integrate climate change into all bureau plans (i.e., forest district plans, State Forest Resource Management Plan, state park management plans, Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan, etc.) by identifying climate vulnerabilities and incorporating adaptation strategies. Use forest climate impact models, heat and hardiness zone projections, and other resources when developing species conservation, land management, and silvicultural plans. Carbon Sequestration Climate change is attributed in large part to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. Forest ecosystems absorb and sequester a significant portion of U.S. carbon emissions, but that capability is influenced by land management activities, forest health, tree productivity, and the ability of forests to adapt to climate change. Carbon dioxide can also potentially be stored underground in geologic formations and used to help extract oil and gas deposits in a process called Carbon Capture Use and Storage. Actions • • • • Increase forest carbon stocks by increasing forest coverage and avoiding conversion of forest to non-forest uses. Decrease forest carbon loss by adjusting timber harvesting intensities and rotations. Continue to participate in and advocate for regional studies and funding opportunities for geologic carbon sequestration. Utilize durable wood-based products whenever possible in construction projects. 13 Human Health and Safety Human health and safety concerns such as tick and mosquito-borne diseases, severe storms, heatrelated illness, and poor air quality are becoming more of a concern. The number, geographic distribution, and length of time during the year that ticks and mosquitos are active have been increasing, thereby increasing employee and visitor exposure to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme Disease. Visitors may also be at greater risk of heat-related illness and dehydration on hot days, and severe weather is expected to increase the need for emergency management services and storm-safe areas. Staff may need to spend more time on hazard tree removal, salvage operations, and risk assessment and maintenance of public use areas and campgrounds. Severe weather and vector-borne illnesses are also expected to increase worker absences and worker’s compensation. Actions • • • • Review and update preparedness plans to account for changing risk profiles. Train staff about climate-related threats, threat-planning, and to be aware of shifts in the weather and the resulting impacts. When practicable, adjust field season planning and scheduling to minimize exposure to hazards. Increase monitoring and control of ticks and mosquitos. Policy Adapting to climate change will require new management approaches that may conflict with or not be addressed by current departmental policies. Issues such as terrestrial and geologic carbon sequestration, enhancing genetic diversity, habitat refugia, assisted migration, and changing silvicultural practices may require policy changes. The department should also work with other state agencies as they develop climate change adaptation strategies and policies. Actions • • Integrate climate change into existing policies and guidelines. Where necessary, develop new policies and guidelines, such as for carbon sequestration and assisted migration. Establish a multi-agency climate change adaptation team for the Commonwealth to coordinate efforts, funding, and share information and practices. Outreach and Communication Implementing the recommendations in this plan will result in changes to land management, recreational opportunities, grant funding criteria, and more. Public education will be essential to help visitors and constituents understand the need for these changes. Through direct experience in natural classrooms or via a wide range of outreach options, the public can come to understand how climate change is impacting the commonwealth’s resources, what DCNR is doing to adapt its management and practices, and how they may also become good stewards. 14 As part of its climate change adaptation efforts, the department will emphasize the importance of public engagement and place-based citizen science and incorporate climate change into the daily conversations staff have with visitors. Actions • • • • Form a communication team to provide support, tools, messages and training to staff to communicate with the public and community partners on DCNR’s adaptation plans and practices. Empower staff to serve as climate change ambassadors to partners, visitors, and local stakeholders to promote a deeper understanding of climate change impacts and solutions. Educate the public in advance of any major operational or land management changes necessary to adapt to climate change. Regularly update and expand climate change resources on DCNR’s climate web page. Staff Training and Capacity DCNR staff will face increasing challenges in managing state resources, providing educational programs, and responding to hazards and emergencies due to the impacts of climate change. The department will need additional staff to implement the actions outlined in this plan. Staff will need to be trained on topics related to climate science, adaptation, and mitigation. Actions • • • Develop climate change training for DCNR staff. Designate individuals within each of the bureaus to serve as climate change ambassadors who are familiar with the latest climate science and trends and that can assist with implementing the adaptation strategies recommended in this plan. Ensure adequate staffing levels to address the action items outlined in this plan. Conclusion As the climate changes, so will species, natural communities, and the ecological, societal, and economic services they provide. Consequently, the department needs to embrace a conservation paradigm that facilitates, manages, and copes with change in the natural world. As our scientific understanding of climate change advances and as we implement and learn which adaptation strategies are and are not successful, this plan will continually evolve. 15 Appendix A Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources Climate Change Strategy January 25, 2017 Position Statement Climate change is real and is impacting the commonwealth’s ecological and recreational resources. As the state’s leading conservation agency, DCNR will use the best available science to develop and implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies within each of its bureaus to minimize these impacts and serve as a role model for the citizens of Pennsylvania. Background The Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources is charged with maintaining and preserving 121 state parks, 2.2 million acres of state forest land, conservation of native wild plants, and providing information about the state's ecological and geologic resources. The department also provides information, technical advice to private forest landowners and establishes community conservation partnerships through grants and technical assistance to benefit rivers, trails, greenways, local parks and recreation, heritage regions, open space, and natural areas. Climate change has already begun to manifest itself in the commonwealth in the form of higher temperatures, increased annual precipitation, significantly higher numbers of large storm events, changes in peak stream flows, decreased snow cover, changes in recreational use patterns, and the movement of some species to the north and to higher elevations. In addition to these direct impacts, climate change is a threat-multiplier, magnifying the impacts of other environmental stressors such as invasive species, habitat fragmentation, and deer overpopulation. Climate change impacts the state’s communities, lands, waters, plants, fish, air, visitors, and wildlife. It also affects DCNR’s ability to manage these resources for the long-term benefit of the public. Consequently, the need to act on climate change is now. Approach DCNR is in a unique position to help the commonwealth reduce risk and adapt to climate change. This will require a new conservation paradigm that focuses on managing for change, preserving ecosystem services, and recognizing the need to reevaluate conservation goals and policies in response to climate change. The department’s land management practices can also directly mitigate atmospheric carbon as well as ensure that our public lands remain resilient and can adapt to a changing climate. 16 The department will take the following steps to implement this strategy: • Appoint a Climate Action Steering Team (CAST) comprised of Bureau Directors to provide resources, monitor progress, and ensure that climate change mitigation and adaptation are integrated into the department’s operations and mission. Refine and adapt strategies identified in DCNR and Climate Change – Planning for the Future, as well as other relevant sources, to create and implement a climate change adaptation and mitigation plan. Evaluate the department’s carbon footprint and mitigate greenhouse gases by reducing energy consumption and increasing forest carbon sequestration. Develop a climate change communications plan to engage and educate the public and DCNR staff. Work cooperatively with state and federal agencies NGO’s, and universities to conduct research, share tools and resources, and coordinate our response to climate change. • • • • Legal Authority • • • Article I, Section 27 of the Pennsylvania Constitution guarantees the commonwealth’s citizens the “right to clean air, pure water and to the preservation of the natural, scenic, historic and aesthetic values of the environment. Pennsylvania’s public natural resources are the common property of all the people, including generations yet to come. As trustee of these resources, the commonwealth shall conserve and maintain them for the benefit of all the people.” PA. CONST. art.I, § 27. Conservation and Natural Resources Act (Act 18 of June 28, 1995, P.L. 89, 71 P.S. §§ 1340.101-1340.1143). Wild Resource Conservation Act of June 23, 1982, P.L. 597, No. 170 17 Appendix B – Methodology To address climate change impacts across the department, the Bureaus of Forestry, State Parks, Facility Design and Construction, Recreation and Conservation, and Topologic and Geologic Survey each formed an adaptation team to identify vulnerabilities and adaptation actions. The teams worked with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS) using a process adapted from Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers, 2nd edition. The publication serves as a decision-support tool for incorporating climate change assessment and adaptation into planning and management activities. It does not provide recommendations, but rather provides a menu of adaptation strategies and approaches As a first step, NIACS proposed three questions to the climate teams: • • • What major management challenges do you deal with at work? What are some of the ways this work will be affected by climate change? What are some of the general ways to respond to the challenges presented by climate change? The responses were used by the teams to compile an initial list of impacts and vulnerabilities. During several day-long meetings the teams used resources such as the Pennsylvania Climate Change Plan, the Mid-Atlantic Vulnerability Assessment, the National Climate Assessment, and Climate Change Tree Atlas to better define and characterize the vulnerabilities. From their list of bureau-specific impacts and vulnerabilities, they identified the highest priorities for climate change adaptation using a risk matrix. Risk levels were assessed by considering the severity of the impact and the likelihood that it will occur. 18 Risk Matrix for Bureau Impacts and Vulnerabilities Likelihood Severity of Impacts Negligible Minor Moderate Major Severe Very Likely Med. Low Medium Med. High High High Likely Low Med. Low Medium Med. High High Possible Low Med. Low Medium Med. High Med. High Unlikely Low Med. Low Med. Low Medium Med. High Very Unlikely Low Low Med. Low Medium Med. High The definitions of severity (assuming it will happen) were: • • • • • Negligible: there is little visible, functional, or economic consequence Minor: there is some visible, functional, or economic consequence, but within the range of normal variability Moderate: visible, functional, or economic consequence is slightly outside the range of normal variability Major: visible, functional, or economic consequence is detrimental to operations and must be addressed for operations to continue Severe: visible, functional, or economic consequence that results in mission failure and requires intervention by other state or federal agencies The categories of likelihood (over roughly the next 3 to 5 years) were: • • • • • Very likely: it's already beginning or has already happened Likely: it's imminent that it will happen Possible: there's evidence to support it happening, but depends on other factors Unlikely: there's evidence predominately supporting that it won't happen Very unlikely: it would be against all odds to see it happen, but it's still possible Based on the severity and likelihood ratings, the matrix provided an overall risk rating for each impact/vulnerability (low, medium-low, medium, medium-high, and high). 19 Recognizing that they don’t have the capacity to address all the climate risks at once, the bureaus only developed adaptation strategies for vulnerabilities listed as medium-high risk and above. The strategies were developed in consultation with experts from NIACS and utilizing the latest scientific information. A list of the vulnerabilities identified by the bureaus, but not addressed in this plan, can be found in Appendix E. 20 Appendix C – Bureau Adaptation Plans The climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation actions listed below are supported by information from DCNR and Climate Change – Planning for the Future , the Mid-Atlantic Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis, and other sources. Because the department does not have the capacity to address the full suite of impacts and vulnerabilities, the bureaus rated and prioritized the most important vulnerabilities to address over the next 3 to 5 years. More information on the risk analysis process can be found in Appendix B. Bureau of Forestry Adaptation Plan The DCNR Bureau of Forestry’s mission is to ensure the long-term health, viability, and productivity of the commonwealth’s forests and to conserve native wild plants. The bureau accomplishes this mission by: • • • • Managing state forests under sound ecosystem management, to retain their wild character and maintain biological diversity while providing pure water, opportunities for lowdensity recreation, habitats for forest plants and animals, sustained yields of quality timber, and environmentally sound utilization of mineral resources. Protecting forestlands, public and private, from damage and/or destruction by fires, insects, diseases, and other agents. Promoting forestry and the knowledge of forestry by advising and assisting other government agencies, communities, landowners, the forest industry, and the public in the wise stewardship and utilization of forest resources. Protecting and managing native wild flora by determining status, classifying, and conserving native wild plants. Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Actions Vulnerability: The Bureau of Forestry lacks the technical expertise, staff, and policy guidance needed to effectively deal with the impacts of climate change (High Risk). There is a shortage of staff expertise, such as a forest geneticist, as well as climate change-related information and data. Policies addressing nonnative species, terrestrial carbon sequestration, maintaining and enhancing genetic diversity, habitat refugia, assisted migration, and old growth forests are also needed. Actions • • • Integrate climate change into existing policies and guidelines. Where necessary, develop new policies and guidelines, such as for carbon sequestration and assisted migration. Expand funding for monitoring of climate-vulnerable species and habitats (e.g., ongoing EPA-funded Pennsylvania high-elevation peatland monitoring project). Expand partnerships with other organizations to pool resources and share the latest climate change-related data and scientific knowledge. 21 Vulnerability: Increased flooding and stormwater runoff is expected to result in damage to equipment and facilities (High Risk). Costs related to drinking water treatment and repair of infrastructure, trails, roads and bridges are expected to rise. Flooding is expected to increase runoff into streams, lakes, and reservoirs and may result in human health and safety issues such as more frequent evacuations and closing areas in danger zones. Actions • • • • • Develop communication materials for the public about flooding issues and why we don't rebuild in flood-prone areas. Design new infrastructure to be flood resistant. Use green stormwater management (e.g., wetlands) and green design ideas from the Bureau of Facility Design and Construction. Reinvigorate existing road closure criteria. Collaborate with the Bureaus of Topographic and Geologic Survey and Facility Design and Construction to assess the risk of floods, sinkholes, and landslides on new construction or rebuilding projects. Vulnerability: Cold water ecosystems, including native and stocked trout habitat, are at risk due to stream warming, (High Risk). Riparian areas face several threats including warming stream temperatures, erosion and scouring due to heavy rain events, invasive species, and the decline of hemlock, which functions as thermal cover. In turn, these threaten trout, which is a keystone and indicator species for coldwater aquatic ecosystems. Although the Bureau of Forestry does not directly manage trout populations, it is responsible for managing and protecting clean water and implementing the Riparian Buffer Program. Actions • • • • • • • • • Use the Bureau of Forestry’s Riparian Buffer Guidelines and Brook Trout Conservation Plan to maintain coldwater habitat. Restore riparian buffers. Plant conifers such as red spruce, resistant hemlock, or white pine along streams for thermal cooling. Refer to DCNR’s hemlock conservation plan for guidance on which species to choose. Add coarse woody debris to streams to improve trout habitat. Educate the public about the benefits of thermal cover and woody debris in streams. Assess and prioritize old dams lacking bottom release, with the ultimate goal to remove them. Assess groundwater sources in State Forests and develop land protection standards that would improve high-quality trout streams. Review permitting standards for development of residential wells on State Forest land to reduce impacts on water recharge. Ensure culverts, bridges and stream crossings allow for connectivity of cold-water stream communities. 22 Vulnerability: More frequent, severe, and widespread forest pest outbreaks will result in increased tree mortality and management and treatment costs (High Risk). Forest pests, including insects, pathogens, and other herbivores will influence forest composition, and the loss of some tree and understory species may reduce the diversity of the current forest. The loss of a keystone species could be catastrophic for some ecosystems (e.g., hemlock mortality amplifying the warming of trout streams). These changes will affect many facets of the bureau’s responsibilities and planning efforts and may take resources away from other programs. Controlling these pests increases a forest’s ability to withstand and adapt to climate change. Actions • • • • • Reduce the impact of biological stressors, such as insects and pathogens, which can interact to amplify the effects of climate change on trees. Actions to manipulate the density, structure, or species composition of a forest may improve the ability of forests to resist biological stressors. Identify and prioritize high-value forests to monitor for new/existing threats. Include the effects of climate change on long-term forest sustainability when developing pest response plans by using forest impact models (e.g., Tree Atlas, Landis). Manage for a diversity of species and forest types in landscapes that have seen significant damage and mortality from forest pests to increase resilience to climate change. Manage herbivory to promote regeneration of desired species. Vulnerability: The number, growth rates, and abundance of invasive plant species is expected to increase in aquatic and terrestrial habitats (High Risk). In aquatic ecosystems, invasive species increase the potential for choked waterways, fish kills, toxic water, and harmful algae blooms. In terrestrial ecosystems, invasives may disrupt succession as they outcompete native tree regeneration in the understory. Increased competition may reduce diversity or contribute to species extirpation. Changes in species composition is also expected to influence fuel conditions and fuel loads for fires. Actions • • • • • • • Develop triage plans to control invasive species using the bureau’s Early Detection and Rapid Response protocol. Identify nonnative species that are not invasive and that may serve important forest ecosystem functions in a changing climate. Work with the PA Natural Heritage Program and the PA Invasive Species Council to identify new species coming from other states. Investigate new methods of invasive species control, including biocontrol agents. Increase the capacity of the bureau to remove invasive species by participating in state programs or other ongoing efforts. Educate the public about the importance of invasive species management. Seek additional funding to combat invasives. 23 Vulnerability: Populations of rare, threatened, and endangered species, especially those near the edge of their range in Pennsylvania, are expected to decline faster and possibly disappear because of climate change and other stressors (High Risk). Some species that are common now could become rare and new species may move into the state. Decisions will need to be made as to whether those new species should be listed as rare, threatened or endangered. It’s also possible that some species that were listed in the past may become more competitive under warmer conditions and may even become problematic. Lotus, for example, was listed as a species of concern 20 years ago and is now considered problematic. Detecting changes in species composition will require more field work and monitoring. Actions • • • • • • • • Identify plant and animal species in Pennsylvania that are most at risk from climate change based on analyses using the Climate Change Vulnerability Index. Review and expand monitoring to ensure that changes in natural communities, species distribution, and populations are detected. Identify and conserve species, natural communities, and unique sites at risk from climate change. Consider establishing reserves for at-risk or displaced species. Manage habitats over a range of sites and conditions to increase ecosystem redundancy across the landscape. Promote landscape connectivity by reducing habitat fragmentation and creating migration corridors through reforestation and restoration. Work with other state and federal agencies, land conservancies, and scientific institutions across a species range to ensure a holistic approach to conservation. Develop conservation plans and protocols for new species moving into the state and declining populations of once common species (e.g. ash). Vulnerability: Increased frequency of wildfire, blowdowns, and other natural disturbances will create challenges for operations and public safety (High Risk). There will be an increased need for maintenance, clean-up, and communication with the public. Additionally, the cost of managing and maintaining ecosystems may also increase, depending on an ecosystem’s tolerance for disturbance. With increased disturbance, invasives species are also expected to increase. It will be necessary to reduce the risk and long-term impacts of severe disturbances. Actions • • • • Reduce the severity or extent of disturbance by altering forest structure or composition to reduce the risk of wildfire or storm damage. Prepare for intensifying disturbances by developing plans in advance, thereby, allowing a faster and better coordinated response. Add resources as needed to respond to disturbances (e.g., equipment for salvage and wildfire suppression). Promptly revegetate sites after a disturbance. 24 • • • • Build capacity to respond to blowdown and fire hazards by training staff and volunteers. Continue working with local and state emergency management agencies to share resources. Develop protocols for incorporating climate change into restoration planning after natural disasters, including salvage where necessary and appropriate, and invasive plant monitoring and management. Use drought monitoring and fire modeling to help predict wildfire risk and danger. Vulnerability: Hotter summer temperatures combined with moisture deficits are expected to increase the risk of wildfire (High Risk). Compared to the western U.S., fire has not been a major disturbance in Pennsylvania, but that is likely to change. There is already evidence of an extended fire season, with fires now happening year-round, not just in spring and fall. Demand for state resources to deal with emergency management, including assistance to the West and South Compacts, is expected to increase. Actions • • • • • • Apply for more funding for fire-wise communities to reach more people and reduce the risk and spread of wildfire. Restore fire to fire-adapted ecosystems and use prescribed fire to conduct fuel mitigation in wildland urban interface areas for fire-wise communities. Develop new ways to communicate about fire hazards and fire safety with state forest users and adjacent land owners. Increase resources for responding to disturbances, including trained firefighters and equipment for salvage and wildfire suppression. Alter forest structure or composition to reduce risk or severity of wildfire. Establish fuel breaks to slow the spread of catastrophic fire. Vulnerability: Public and political pressure to respond to climate change is increasing (Medium-High Risk). Climate change is not fully integrated into the bureau’s planning or funding and program priorities. Actions • • When developing land conservation and funding priorities, consider the impacts of climate change and the role those lands might play in habitat connectivity and forest carbon sequestration. Integrate climate change into all bureau plans (i.e., forest district plans, State Forest Research Management plan, Bureau of Forestry strategic plan, etc.). Vulnerability: Human health and safety concerns such as tick and mosquito-borne diseases, severe storms, heat-related illness, and poor air quality are becoming more of a concern (Medium-High Risk). The number, geographic distribution, and length of time during the year that ticks and mosquitos are active have all been increasing, thereby increasing 25 employee and visitor exposure to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme Disease. Visitors may also be at greater risk of heat-related illness and dehydration on hot days, and severe weather is expected to increase the need for emergency management services and storm-safe areas. Staff may need to spend more time on hazard tree removal, salvage operations, and risk assessment and maintenance of public use areas and campgrounds. Severe weather and vector-borne illnesses are also expected to increase worker absences and worker’s compensation. Actions • • • • • Train staff about climate-related threats, threat-planning, and to be aware of shifts in the weather and the resulting impacts. Adjust field season planning and scheduling to minimize exposure to hazards. Staff should be prepared for hazards in the field by carrying sufficient water, safety gear, first aid supplies, etc. Purchase additional tick repellent products for use in the field, such as permethrin-treated clothing. Increase monitoring and control of ticks and mosquitos. Vulnerability: Warmer temperatures may result in water deficits, including short term drought (Medium-High Risk). The risk of drought-related stress on vegetation is expected to be widespread, thereby increasing fire risk. Shale areas may be especially vulnerable to drought. Extended drought may also cause lake levels to drop, which could stress aquatic vegetation, trout streams, and other fisheries. Lower lake levels could also reduce water-based recreation. Actions • • • Restore on-site hydrology, connectivity to forested wetlands and lowlands, and increase water retention and storage for groundwater recharge. Maintain water storage capacity of forest soils, especially in shallow forest soils, by optimizing stocking to increase humus depth. Moderate surface water temperature increases by increasing canopy cover. Vulnerability: Milder winters will reduce opportunities for winter recreation, such as snowmobiling, as well as frozen ground, increasing stress on forest roads during timber harvest operations (Medium-High Risk). The bureau will need to re-evaluate how it allocates money and personnel for winter recreation. Changing ground conditions may affect timber contracts if more time is required to complete the sale, and less predictability in harvest timing may result in lost revenue. Actions • • Incorporate climate change considerations into recreation planning and resource allocation. Extend timber contracts to later in the winter season in vulnerable areas. 26 Vulnerability: Interacting stressors such as insect pests, pathogens, and climate change will, and are, affecting native trees and native wild plants (e.g., hemlock, ash). Species composition is expected to change due to the decline of some species, increases in others, hybridization, and immigration of southern species (Medium-High Risk). These changes can lead to disruption of ecosystem processes and functions (especially when a keystone species is lost), as well as loss of diversity in tree species, understory plants, insects, and wildlife. Adding to these stressors are forest regeneration failures compounded by previous land use changes and forest fragmentation that impedes the movement of species. As conditions continue to change, decisions will need to be made as to which tree species the department plants, which is difficult to determine since species that will thrive in future conditions may not do well now. Additionally, as new species move in, the department will need to establish guidelines regarding their status and whether to list them as species of concern. Actions • • • • • • • • • Conserve key tracts of land through acquisitions and easements that enhance forest connectivity and potential migration corridors. Sustain ecological functions, species diversity, and diverse age classes in forests. Determine the potential impacts of climate change on native wild plant and tree species. Facilitate forest community changes by favoring native tree species and genotypes that are expected to be adapted to future conditions, managing for species with wide moisture and temperature tolerances, establishing new mixes of native species, moving at-risk species to locations that are expected to provide suitable habitat when practicable, and guiding change in species compositions during the early stages of stand development. Allow for areas of natural regeneration to test for future-adapted species. Realign significantly disrupted ecosystems to meet expected future conditions. Introduce new tree species that are better adapted to future conditions, but only to fill ecological or economic gaps created by the loss of native trees, and only after careful scientific analysis of potential impacts on the ecosystem. Reduce tree densities through silvicultural thinning, focusing on trees likely to be illsuited to future climate conditions, thereby making more space available for trees better adapted to a warmer climate. Prioritize these treatments based on funding. Permit the use of seeds, germplasm, and other genetic material from across a greater geographic range. Vulnerability: Climate change impacts will vary across the landscape according to elevation, topography, aspect, slope, and other variables (Medium-High Risk). Some areas will see significant impacts, while more resistant habitats will become increasingly important for conservation planning and may influence where and how conservation dollars are spent. Actions • • • • Practice adaptation at the forest stand level. Identify and conserve biological legacies and unique ecological sites. Establish reserves to maintain ecosystem function. Protect or create refugia harboring species and ecosystems at risk from climate change. 27 Vulnerability: Climate change is disrupting the timing of natural cycles such as migration, emergence from dormancy or hibernation, and leaf development and blooming (MediumHigh Risk). These phenological changes result in mismatches between predators and prey, pollinators and the plants that depend on them, and frost damage to trees that bud or flower during early warm spells prior to the last freeze. This can impact recreation opportunities such as fall foliage viewing, increase damage from invasive species, reduce forest regeneration, and lead to cascading ecological impacts. Actions • Integrate observations of phenological changes (i.e. arrival of migratory birds, nesting dates, etc.) with predictive models to help inform conservation planning. Mitigation and Carbon Sequestration Forest ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle and offset a significant portion of U.S. annual greenhouse gas emissions. The capacity of forest ecosystems to absorb and sequester carbon depends in large part on their health, productivity, resilience, and ability to adapt to changing conditions. The Bureau of Forestry can increase forest carbon sequestration through forest management and afforestation. Actions • • • • Pursue a policy of no-net-loss of forest cover and work to increase forest carbon stocks by increasing forest acreage. Increase forest carbon sequestration across the landscape by promoting suitable species and using forest management techniques to promote forest growth and increase stocking levels when possible. Limit emissions associated with disturbance to soils and burning fossil fuels. Utilize durable wood-based products whenever possible in construction projects. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Not Addressed Listed below are climate change vulnerabilities that were identified as being low to medium risk. They should not be viewed as unimportant, but rather don’t present as immediate a threat, or limited staff and financial resources preclude them from being addressed at this time. • Hotter summers may result in increased energy demand for cooling offices, shops, and facilities. May have to cool buildings not currently air-conditioned (Medium Risk). • Land acquisition may change with changing needs based on climate vulnerabilities (e.g., for migration corridors, connectivity, landscape position, refugia, etc.) (Medium-Low Risk). • Temperature extremes (e.g., very hot days) may reduce public participation in deer hunting, which has already declined, but not necessarily due to climate change (Low Risk). 28 Bureau of Facility Design and Construction Adaptation Plan The Bureau of Facility Design & Construction manages the design and construction of Pennsylvania’s state park and state forest infrastructure projects. It provides multi-disciplined technical support in the areas of project design, project inspection, construction management, contract administration, surveying, and other technical advice and consultation. The bureau already employs many climate change adaptation strategies through its use of green building design and best management practices. These strategies include: • • • • • • • • • • • • Designing buildings with highly insulated wall envelopes to provide interior comfort even in extreme hot or cold weather. Use of geothermal heat pumps that provide clean and renewable energy for heating and cooling and hence reducing carbon emissions. Using grade control structures, humps, and water bars to reduce velocity and redirect flow. Redesigning road surfaces from inslope to outslope. Increasing ground cover and vegetated “roughness” of slopes to slow runoff. Incorporating soil stabilization techniques into road design to minimize soil shrinking and swelling due to moisture changes. Improving freeze-thaw resistance of concrete. Ensuring that bridge joints can accommodate anticipated thermal expansion. Regrading of unpaved roads to minimize erosion. Decommissioning and revegetating haul roads or converting them to other uses, where practical, such as trails. Rerouting high-risk trails. Removing culverts on haul roads after harvesting operations are complete. Working with the Green initiative team, the bureau has developed a new policy on selection of buildings to be certified for sustainability. Sustainable buildings possess climate change adaptation features like highly insulated wall envelopes that help ensure a comfortable building interior in extreme cold or extreme hot weathers. Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Actions Vulnerability: There is a staff shortage in this bureau that amplifies all other climaterelated impacts and vulnerabilities (High Risk). The bureau will need additional staff to meet the challenges presented by climate change. Without additional people, more of the bureau’s budget will need to be spent on consultants, which will reduce the amount of money available for construction projects. Additionally, existing staff will need to be trained on climate-related issues and technologies. Actions • • Hire more staff to fill currently open positions. Provide staff training on climate change and related new equipment and technology. 29 Vulnerability: Increased flooding in wide floodplains are likely to result in more frequent overtopping of roads, especially where bridge approaches are already prone to washing out (High Risk). Most approaches are stone and thus more vulnerable to washing out. Actions • • • • • Identify state forest areas that are most vulnerable to washing out based on bridge reports, location in low-lying areas, or other indicators. Pave bridge approaches with asphalt in vulnerable areas and armor the bank slope with riprap to reduce the possibility of washout. Use alternative crossing structures designed to be overtopped and that can withstand impacts by woody debris or ice during floods. Reroute roads out of floodplains when practicable. Educate other bureaus on flooding issues and how to avoid rebuilding in flood prone areas. Vulnerability: Increased flooding and runoff is likely to overwhelm storm drains and pipes and result in damaged infrastructure (High Risk). Flood control and stormwater design is likely to become more challenging with more precipitation and flooding. Stormwater conveyance structures (culverts, pipes, etc.) may be undersized, contributing to increased erosion and washouts of roads, trails, and other infrastructure. Proper stormwater design is critical but time consuming, and the bureau’s staff is already undersized. Actions • • • • • • • Use state climatologist data or other high-quality climate records to identify trends in 25year, 50-year, 100-year, and 500-year floods. Reassess stormwater drain measures and improve all stormwater conveyance systems to accommodate larger flows. Use standard bridge reports and historical flood data from the state climatologist to assess culvert size and identify those that are inadequate for increasing extreme water events. Enlarge undersized culverts, considering the uncertainty and frequency of flood events and using FDC’s recently adopted Stream Crossing Culvert Practices for Aquatic Organism Passage. Use bottomless culvert designs to allow for sediment and debris to safely pass during a flood. Reconnect stream channels to the riparian floodplain to reduce shear velocities and instream energy, leading to reduced scour. Communicate the importance of upstream protection of stream channels. Vulnerability: Increased intensity of rainstorms coupled with aging or failing infrastructure could result in greater hydraulic overload of wastewater treatment facilities and surcharging of collection/conveyance systems (High Risk). Overloaded treatment systems 30 may result in ineffective treatment and surcharge/overflow issues may result in health and safety issues. Old infrastructure (such as bad pipe joints, offset manhole frames, etc.) combined with more frequent extreme rainfall events can cause hydraulic overload, weaken waste strength, and ultimately create difficulties meeting regulatory requirements. This may be exacerbated when outside entities contribute flows to DCNR’s collection/conveyance systems. Actions • • • • DCNR system operators should inspect the integrity of collection/conveyance systems more frequently (at least annually). Identify and repair systems that have excessive inflow/infiltration. Tie DCNR systems into larger municipal systems where practicable. This will allow the department to focus on tightening its system rather than plant operations. Provide dedicated regional and central office staff to coordinate and support sewage treatment options. Vulnerability: Warmer lake temperatures may result in warmer water temperatures downstream from dams (Medium-High Risk). Warmer water downstream is expected to stress fish and other aquatic organisms and promote algae and aquatic invasives. The bureaus of Forestry and State Parks are likely to request modifications or removal of dams to address these concerns, which will be costly for those bureaus. Because about 75 percent of DCNR dams have spillways with uncontrolled release, FDC expects to spend more staff time and funding to address these impacts. Actions • Install low-level water releases where practicable to release cooler water from deeper within lakes. Vulnerability: Increased flooding and runoff may exacerbate problems with aging bridge infrastructure and result in bridge collapse (Medium-High Risk). FDC will likely see an increased workload identifying at-risk bridges, responding to infrastructure failure, and designing replacement bridges. Actions • • • • Identify bridges that are susceptible to flooding and monitor them during large storm events. Deploy flood-proofing on existing high-risk bridges. Incorporate flood-proof designs, such as reinforced bridge abutments, during bridge replacement projects so that they can handle larger flows and accumulation of debris. Redesign bridges using flow rates based on the most recent data or bankfull totals. 31 Vulnerability: Heavy rain events and flooding may result in more washouts of stream embankments, especially unprotected embankments that run parallel to roads (MediumHigh Risk). Road closures may increase and repetitive repair of flood-prone embankments will become more common. Actions • • Add riprap or plant vegetation on stream banks to stabilize soil based on velocity of the stream. Add bends and unchannelize streams where possible to reduce stream velocity and scouring. Vulnerability: Extreme precipitation may result in increased siltation and sedimentation in lakes (Medium-High Risk). Very shallow lakes may require dredging or other costly measures to sustain adequate pool levels for recreation. Actions • • • Evaluate water depths every 2-3 years to identify shallow areas that need maintenance. Dredge lakes to remove sedimentation, and work with the Bureau of State Parks to determine where to deposit the dredged material so that it doesn’t return to the stream. Support the Riparian Buffer Program wherever possible to help reduce erosion and siltation that ultimately ends up in lakes. FDC can evaluate projects within and along the streams and limit the encroachment of the project into these zones. Where encroachment is expected, FDC can recommend and provide proper re-vegetative cover for a stream buffer which would coincide with the standards outlined in DCNR Concept for Multifunctional Riparian Forest Buffers. Vulnerability: Warmer temperatures may result in increased evaporation, which may result in lower lake levels (Medium-High Risk). Some dams are required to have minimum flow releases, resulting in even lower water levels. The potential inability to sustain normal pool levels during peak recreational seasons could impact boating, swimming, fishing, marinas, and docks. Actions • • • Evaluate the operation of each dam and determine impacts downstream when water levels are reduced. Employ measures to compensate for low flows such as releasing compensation flow downstream to address conservation or recreation impacts. Evaluate the impacts of lower water levels on lake infrastructure. 32 Vulnerability: More frequent flooding may result in dam overtopping or dam failure (Medium-High Risk). Higher pool levels could cause additional pressure on earthen embankments and cause them to become unstable. DCNR owns ~50 high-hazard and significanthazard dams, which have the potential for loss of life or damage to infrastructure. Many dams also have inadequate spillways. Actions • • • Retrofit or upgrade dams to meet Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) dam safety requirements. Evaluate and modify spillways to help pass large flood flows. Collaborate with DEP to evaluate and identify the high-hazard dams with the highest potential for overtopping and failure. Develop a prioritized list of those that need to be rehabilitated. Vulnerability: Changes in temperature, precipitation, growing season and other climaterelated variables may result in changes in suitable habitats and distribution for trees, shrubs, and other landscaping plants (Medium-High Risk). Combined with other threats such as insect pests and disease, common landscaping trees and plants may no longer be suitable. There is also increased concern over public safety due to hazard trees. Actions • • • Evaluate which tree species are likely to do well under a range of future climate conditions. Develop a triage plan to deal with nonnative invasive species. Manage vegetation around buildings to prevent storm damage. Vulnerability: Alternating droughts and heavy rain may reduce the quality and/or quantity of ground and surface water used as drinking water sources (Medium-High Risk). These water sources may have higher concentrations of pathogenic microorganisms, algae, minerals, or contaminants, making them unsafe or resulting in poor taste and odors. Fine materials associated with runoff and erosion can cause damage to filter units, resulting in increased maintenance costs. Actions • • • Maintain buffers around surface water sources to minimize runoff and work with landowners upstream to support the DCNR Riparian Buffer Program. Utilize proper well-head protection methods to minimize the risk of groundwater contamination. Tie into municipal water systems when possible to avoid the need to treat water and to minimize the amount of distribution lines. 33 • • • Increase the frequency of system operator inspections for DCNR distribution systems (annually at minimum), and identify and repair systems with excessive losses. Provide dedicated regional and central office staff to coordinate and support water treatment operations. Adjust withdrawal levels from reservoirs if practical. Vulnerability: More frequent and severe hot and cold temperature extremes may result in increased energy demand to meet human comfort and practical needs (Medium-Risk). Building envelopes and HVAC systems designed at today’s standards may not be able to satisfactorily perform under harsher conditions. Actions • • • • • • • Develop and enforce more stringent building design and energy conservation standards that will perform well under increasing temperature extremes throughout a building’s life-span. Implement energy reduction strategies such as automated lighting controls, occupant energy waste reductions, and increased use of renewable energy sources. Implement passive solar and solar thermal conservation strategies such as roof overhangs, tinted glazing, highly insulated windows, mass wall construction, low-heat absorbing materials, and expanded landscaping to help control glare, limit thermal gain/loss, and moderate the impact of temperature extremes on indoor environment. Prioritize the use of geothermal systems that utilize constant ground temperatures not impacted by outside weather extremes instead of using air heat pumps or fossil fuel burning systems for heating and cooling. Implement preventative maintenance schedules and re- or retro-commissioning of building systems to ensure operation at peak design and efficiency. Expand building occupant education about energy reduction techniques, such as adjusting blinds and limiting artificial lighting and electrical equipment use during high temperature events. Increase FDC staff technical knowledge to foster innovative solutions. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Not Addressed Listed below are climate change vulnerabilities that were identified as being low to medium risk. They should not be viewed as unimportant, but rather don’t present as immediate a threat, or limited staff and financial resources preclude them from being addressed at this time. • Warmer air temperatures will increase lake temperatures, which will be more susceptible to vegetation growth, algae blooms, microbial issues, and changes in aquatic species (Medium Risk). 34 • • • • • • • • Changes in the timing and nature of precipitation (more extreme rain events) may result in increased flooding in areas that are not currently considered floodplains (Medium Risk). Extremely hot days combined with periods of short-term drought may result in increased risk of wildfire, which may put structures at risk (Medium Risk). Increased temperature variability, amount or pH of precipitation, etc., may increase or decrease nutrient digestion rates in wastewater systems (Medium Risk). Decreasing rainfall and increasing drought conditions may result in reduced groundwater supply, and consequently wells may go dry (Medium-Low Risk). Extreme high temperatures may result in pavement softening because asphalt-covered surfaces are more susceptible to damage during heat waves than concrete surfaces (Medium-Low Risk). Increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events may result in increased damage to infrastructure and less time available for outdoor construction projects (Medium-Low Risk). Warmer winters and less snow may result in shifting public use, such as less opportunity for cross country or downhill skiing, snowmobiling, and other winter recreation activities (Medium-Low Risk). Increases in maximum temperatures, heat extremes, and multiday heat waves will be worse in urban areas (heat island effect) and may result in power brown-outs (MediumLow Risk). 35 Bureau of Recreation and Conservation Adaption Plan The Bureau of Recreation and Conservation (BRC) is guided by the knowledge that: • • • • • Counties, communities and partners across the commonwealth have control of substantial conserved lands, currently estimated at more than 700,000 acres. These lands include eased lands, 6,000 local parks, community open space lands and natural areas. Any effort to influence the long-term sustainability of Pennsylvania’s natural resources must involve communities and other local partners. Natural, heritage, and recreational resources that are connected to a community contribute significantly to its citizens’ quality of life. The economy and health of our communities and citizens are directly tied to the availability of open space and recreational and outdoor opportunities. A lack of planning, lack of connection to nature and parks, and lack of coordinated government services contribute to the decline of our communities and the health of their citizens. Citizens who appreciate the outdoors and have access to recreational opportunities, creeks, trails, and paths are more likely to enact a natural resource stewardship ethic. Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Actions Vulnerability: Shortage of personnel knowledgeable in climate change science and adaptation (High Risk). The impacts of climate change, such as changes in habitat, movement of species, and changing natural systems, will require new partnerships with other bureaus and science partners. Actions • • • Utilize expertise available within and outside the agency to help incorporate green infrastructure guidelines and climate change adaptation into the bureau’s work. Organize/sponsor climate change forums to expand staff knowledge. Provide climate change outreach and training opportunities and materials to all BRC’s partners, including municipalities and Heritage Areas. Vulnerability: Climate change impacts will occur across the landscape, necessitating changes in land conservation priorities. The criteria used by the bureau and other conservation organizations to develop those priorities do not take climate change into account (Medium-High Priority). Incorporating climate change into BRC’s priorities could lead to more resilient landscapes, the funding of mitigation and adaptation plans for grantees, and education programs for landowners. Actions • • Incorporate climate change considerations into grant selection criteria and stewardship plans. Consider modifying scoring criteria to favor applications that evaluate climate change impacts such as flooding, drought, changes in recreation seasons, etc. Encourage habitat connectivity in land stewardship plans. 36 • • • Launch an outreach campaign that promotes the climate resilient strategies identified in BRC’s white paper, which is currently under development. Prioritize projects that address climate change impacts on species and natural communities, such as connecting parcels that facilitate the movement of species. Support Growing Greener 3 and other conservation efforts that support climate change adaptation. Vulnerability: Increased flooding will impact planning and investments, where recreation can occur, and ultimately which projects receive grant funding (Medium Risk). Some areas that typically didn’t flood in the past now do, jeopardizing the “useful life” requirement of some grant-funded projects. Maintenance in parks and recreation areas is less efficient and costlier when elements and features are not sustainably designed and constructed. BRC will need to incorporate climate change and potential flooding risk into selection criteria for grants. Actions • • • • Evaluate a site’s propensity to flood and ensure that infrastructure improvements funded by the department are appropriate for the location or will be armored to make them resilient to flooding. Promote the use of BRC’s Greening Parks and Sustainable Practices webpage by grantees for ideas about managing storm water and best management practices. Prioritize investments that have lower long-term maintenance costs. Modify BRC’s Green Park best practices as new information on flooding and impacts from severe weather become available. Vulnerability: Changing recreation patterns and seasons due to milder winters and hotter summers will affect the types of projects that receive grant funding (Medium Risk). Municipalities may want to build more water-based recreation facilities and fewer winter-based recreation facilities. Additionally, the extended spring, summer, and fall recreation seasons will likely lead to increased maintenance costs for trails and other recreation infrastructure. Actions • Modify funding priorities based on input from municipal partners and changes in recreational demand. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Not Addressed Listed below are climate change vulnerabilities that were identified as being low to medium risk. They should not be viewed as unimportant, but rather don’t present as immediate a threat, or limited staff and financial resources preclude them from being addressed at this time. • New techniques, products, and processes may be needed to successfully manage lands, which will require additional training for staff and more public outreach, particularly in relation to invasive species control and water trails (Low Risk). 37 Bureau of State Parks Adaptation Plan The primary mission of Pennsylvania state parks is to provide opportunities for enjoying healthful outdoor recreation and serve as outdoor classrooms for environmental education. In meeting these purposes, the conservation of the natural, scenic, aesthetic, and historical values of parks should be given first consideration. Stewardship responsibilities should be carried out in a way that protects the natural outdoor experience for the enjoyment of current and future generations. Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options Vulnerability: Shortage of knowledgeable personnel (High Risk). Currently there are only a few people within the bureau with climate change expertise. To address the impacts of climate change and educate park visitors about those impacts and our management actions to deal with them, we need staff that are competent and confident in this arena. Actions • • • • Include discussion of climate-related impacts in relevant programs and projects. Train staff on climate change impacts, species range changes, weather pattern shifts, and other climate-related impacts. Use a variety of different tools and resources to provide climate change information and to explain the reasons behind our climate adaptation strategies. Recruit new staff that have a climate change background. Vulnerability: Terrestrial ecosystem health is at risk because forests within state parks aren’t being managed with climate change in mind (High Risk). The composition of many forests within state parks are changing. Inventories and management strategies for plant and animal communities that will thrive under future climate conditions is needed. Actions • • • As park management plans and resource management plans are updated, incorporate climate change considerations such as migration corridors, refugia, and changing species composition. Include climate change in monitoring and inventory work to fill data gaps. Partner with the Bureau of Forestry when possible. Increase staff to help with planning and management. Vulnerability: Aquatic ecosystem health is at risk, as warming temperatures threaten native fish habitat in lakes and coldwater streams (High Risk). Higher water temperatures can lead to changes in acidification, dissolved oxygen levels, productivity, destratification, and more, potentially resulting in a reduction or shift in keystone species. This impact can be worsened by fishery management, inadequate management of riparian buffers, warm water released from dam spillways, increases in non-native aquatic vegetation, and harmful algal blooms, potentially leading to the decline of native fish species and reduced trout fishing opportunities. 38 Actions • • • • • • • • Install low-level water releases on dams when completing major rehabilitation projects to release cooler water from deeper in the lake and help lower downstream temperatures. Work with partners to address watershed issues occurring outside of state parks that magnify climate change impacts on downstream habitat within state parks. Maintain tree cover for shade along riparian buffers. Restore surface water connectivity to groundwater through floodplain and riparian wetlands restoration. Identify streams in high-value areas and manage them to maintain a coldwater habitat. Improve water quality and habitat for native aquatic flora and fauna through the elimination of impoundments having minimal recreational / operational value. Deploy monitoring equipment to determine impacts to lake and stream chemistry and temperature. Work with the Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission to determine if state park fisheries are being impacted. Vulnerability: Increased frequency and intensity of flooding and stormwater runoff may result in impacts to infrastructure and recreational and ecological resources (High Risk). Infrastructure potentially at risk includes dams, trails, roads and bridges, historical and cultural resources, and park buildings. Extreme rain events can also affect groundwater supply and reduce water quality below public thresholds for recreational use. Flooding may also lead to the closing of recreational facilities, strand park visitors, cause lakeshore and streambank erosion, sedimentation, and increase water treatment costs. These impacts are already being felt, and without existing federal funding to address them, several parks would have already been closed. Actions • • • • • • • • Evaluate trail systems and make them more resilient to flooding and stormwater runoff. Identify and prioritize park amenities and systems that must be kept open after major storms. Remove park amenities from floodplains and palustrine buffers. Develop an assessment tool for new construction siting that evaluates potential climate, geological, biological, ecological, and social impacts. Assess and replace undersized drainage pipes, culverts, and stormwater conveyance systems that contribute to flooding and erosion issues. Restore floodplain and riparian wetlands to maximize floodwater storage and groundwater recharge. Work with the Bureau of Facility Design and Construction, townships, and developers to develop infrastructure resilient to heavy rain and runoff (e.g. improving wastewater treatment and municipal separate storm sewer systems, building more drainage basins, and designing green infrastructure). Evaluate, prioritize, and implement technologies and best management practices that decrease stormwater runoff. 39 • • Evaluate the hydraulic capacities of State Park dams, and where needed and practicable increase the size of the spillway or provide overtopping protection for earthen dam embankments. Remove dams no longer serving their intended purpose. Vulnerability: Increase in growth rate, abundance, and number of invasive species will contribute to habitat loss, and controlling them will require a significant increase in staff hours and funding (High Risk). Actions • • • • • • Use existing decision-making processes to prioritize which invasive species will be addressed and/or which Natural Areas should be targeted for removal/control. Enforce and enable aquatic invasive species prevention strategies. Manage native understory species to prevent the establishment of invasives. Work with local nurseries to prevent the sale of invasive ornamental plants. Increase the staff complement tasked with invasive vegetation removal and suppression. Work with other state agencies responsible for land management (PennDOT, Dept. of Military and Veterans Affairs, etc.) to develop and adopt statewide invasive species best management practices. Vulnerability: More variability in lake levels and discharges (High Risk). Hotter summers may increase demand for water-based recreation and at the same time result in lower lake levels due to increased evaporation and the potential for drought conditions. The potential inability to sustain normal water levels during the peak recreation season could impact boating, swimming, fishing, marinas, and white-water rafting. The situation would be even worse if water withdrawals are needed to maintain downstream flow levels and may even result in park closures. Actions • • • • • • • • Shift visitor perceptions of an optimal water-based experience through a public education program. Develop low water level procedures for lakes and streams. Develop and implement a recreational opportunity spectrum that matches recreation with changing site conditions. Conduct water releases that mimic historical and natural variability. Work with other agencies that control water releases, such as the Army Corps of Engineers, Basin Commissions etc., to maintain water levels and time water releases to minimize impacts on recreation. Consider other options for water-based recreation, such as additional swimming pools, alternatives to watercraft-based recreation, splash areas, and shifting the recreational focus from dammed lakes to natural flowing streams. Reevaluate appropriate boating restrictions. Develop and/or retrofit park lakeshore infrastructure to be adaptable to changing pool depths. 40 • Evaluate the potential for increasing normal pool levels at dams prior to the hotter summer months. Factors to consider would be operational impacts due to increased pool levels, environmental impacts, and structural impacts and costs to the dam structure. Vulnerability: A longer recreation season will result in increased visitor impact on natural resources and increased stress on ecosystem components (High Risk). Very hot days during the summer may result in some parks exceeding visitor carrying capacity and turning visitors away or closing. Additionally, the winter period during which maintenance and special projects are conducted will become shorter. More staff and resources will be needed to deal with these impacts. Actions • • • Determine recreational sustainability and develop and apply recreational and resource carrying capacities. Limit access or types of uses in sensitive or high-use areas to minimize impacts (e.g. no horses on wet trails, close areas during the wet season, limit the number of people in some areas, etc.). Design greater flexibility in scheduling seasonal employees. Investigate other avenues for flexible staffing (e.g. alternate full-time position, staggered work seasons, permanent part-time employees, etc.). Vulnerability: Forest composition will change, and some tree species may be lost due to climate change and other stressors (High Risk). Disruption of ecosystem functions and processes will occur as species, particularly keystone species, are lost. Examples include changes to riparian areas as hemlocks succumb to the Hemlock wooly adelgid (which will no longer be kept in check by cold winter temperatures), impacts on the maple sugaring program as sugar maples decline, and an overall loss of biodiversity. Actions • • • • • • Use forest impact models, such as the U.S. Forest Service’s Climate Change Tree Atlas, to inform decisions on tree planting and management. Redefine expectations for future desired conditions and measures of success. Determine the ideal modified plant community based on predicted changes in forest plant communities due to climate change and manage the habitat for those species. Identify and solicit research to fill data gaps related to which species and natural communities will be best adapted to future climatic conditions. Manage species in decline while positioning for species and groups that are better adapted to future climate conditions that fill the same ecological functions. Identify climate refugia in state parks and manage for their persistence. Utilize assisted migration when warranted and only after stringent scientific review. Vulnerability: Milder winters will lead to less winter recreation such as ice fishing, ice skating, snowmobiling, and cross-country skiing (High Risk). The bureau will need to reevaluate how money is allocated to winter recreation, as well as how it allocates personnel resources. 41 Actions • • • Reallocate funds to better match recreation demand and opportunities based on climate modelling and surveys. Expand specialized park (e.g. ski resorts) operations to incorporate warm-weather recreation in other seasons, thereby reducing impacts in low-snow years. Incorporate climate change considerations into project planning and resource allocation. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Not Addressed Listed below are climate change vulnerabilities that were identified as being low to medium-high risk. They should not be viewed as unimportant, but rather don’t present as immediate a threat, or limited staff and financial resources preclude them from being addressed at this time. • • • • • • • • • • • • • For some parks, impacts on well-known landmarks or landscape features (e.g. cathedral hemlock forest) could change a park’s character and aesthetics and threaten its identity (Medium-High Risk) Less ice cover may result in increased shoreline erosion in some parks (e.g. Presque Isle) (Medium-High Risk). More extreme heat, storms, and increased fire risk may increase risks to human health and safety (Medium-High Risk). Changes in phenology can result in asynchrony with migratory species' arrival and food availability and general ecological disruption between plants, animals, and pollinators (Medium-High Risk). Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and extreme weather events may result in changing distribution and abundance of ticks, mosquitoes, and other pests (Medium-High Risk). Increased number of storms and very hot days will result in more days that are unfavorable for outdoor summer programs (Medium-High Risk). Warmer, shorter winters may result in shifting public use and fewer winter-dependent education programs (Medium Risk). Extreme high temperature softens asphalt and damages roads and trails (Medium-Low Risk). Hotter summers may result in increased energy demand for cooling offices and recreational facilities/lodging (Medium-Low Risk). Extremes in temperatures (e.g., very hot days) may decrease public participation in hunting (Medium-Low Risk). A longer growing season may result in increased productivity for trees and crops, which may also be at higher risk of frost damage when new growth or buds are exposed to freezing temperatures (Medium-Low Risk). Increasing extreme temperatures and moisture will degrade nonpersonal media (e.g., waysides, signs) more quickly (Low Risk). There is a lack of policy on assisted migration and the use of nonnative species in State Parks (Low Risk). 42 Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey Adaptation Plan The Mission of the Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey is, “To serve the citizens of Pennsylvania by collecting, preserving, and disseminating impartial information on the commonwealth's geology, geologic resources, and topography in order to contribute to the understanding, wise use, and conservation of its land and included resources.” Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Actions Vulnerability: Lack of data and knowledge of subsurface geology such as faults, stratigraphy, reservoir characteristics, etc., which are needed before subsurface carbon sequestration can be considered (High Priority). The bureau is currently receiving funding to gather some of this data, which provides valuable data to the public and other DCNR bureaus. There is considerable interest in this work because Marcellus gas wells could potentially be used to sequester carbon (see mitigation options below). Actions • • Create detailed information and maps on subsurface geology, particularly faults, stratigraphy, and reservoir characteristics. Explore possible collaboration with the Bureau of Forestry and exploration companies to gather seismic data. Vulnerability: Increased demand for data and technical assistance due to the impacts of climate change (Medium-High Risk). Public education and outreach will become more important because of increased flooding, drought, dry wells, sinkholes, and other impacts. Hazard prediction, data collection, mapping, hydrographic modeling, and database updates will all be needed. Current staffing levels will be insufficient to meet the increased demand for technical assistance. Actions • • • • • Acquire new LIDAR data by partnering with the U.S. Geologic Survey or other organizations. Develop research projects that look for relationships between the timing and intensity of weather events and sinkholes and landslides. Develop science-based key messages dealing with geologic hazards for multiple audiences. Be prepared to respond to unanticipated novel issues. Assign a staff member as a climate change point-of-contact for the bureau who will keep the agency informed on climate-related information and issues coming from the bureau. Vulnerability: Increased flooding and storm water runoff will impact groundwater supply and drinking water wells (Medium-High Risk). These impacts have already begun in some areas and increasing demand on water sources will exacerbate these effects. Adding to the problem is a lack of detailed knowledge of the state’s aquifer characteristics and lack of accountability of water well drilling companies. 43 Actions • • • • Advocate for water well construction standards. Work with legal counsel to resolve liability issues related to driller licenses. Incorporate public water well standards (ANSI/NGWA) into well drilling standards for driller licenses. Evaluate and characterize Pennsylvania’s aquifers and their properties for modeling future impacts. Carbon Sequestration Carbon can potentially be stored underground in geologic formations. In addition to just sequestration, waste carbon dioxide can also be used to help move oil and gas from unproductive formations to recovery wells. This is called Carbon Capture Use and Storage. The bureau has identified several mitigation options that could facilitate this program. • • Communicate the co-benefits of this technology to the public and government agencies. Continue to participate in and advocate for regional studies and funding opportunities for subsurface carbon sequestration. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Not Addressed Listed below are climate change vulnerabilities that were identified as being low to medium risk. They should not be viewed as unimportant, but rather don’t present as immediate a threat, or limited staff and financial resources preclude them from being addressed at this time. • • • Increased energy demand could potentially increase the workload needed to keep the oil and gas database current (Medium Risk). Extreme heat and safety concerns related to climate change (e.g. more ticks, hazard trees, etc.) may shift the timing and length of fieldwork season (Medium Risk). Changes in snow cover and snow melt may reduce groundwater recharge. This combined with an increased risk of drought and increased population pressure may result in water shortages (Medium-Low Risk). 44 Appendix D – Topical Adaptation Plans Riparian Corridor Adaptation Strategies Riparian areas face several impacts from climate change including increased stream temperatures, erosion and scouring, invasive species establishment, and the decline of hemlock, which provides thermal cover for many streams. In turn, these changes threaten trout, which is a keystone and indicator species for coldwater aquatic ecosystems. The following adaptation strategies will help those who fund, design, and implement riparian corridor restoration projects achieve their goals in a changing climate. This list should be viewed as a menu from which to choose adaptation strategies that best fit project plans, management goals, and site and ecosystem characteristics. Wherever possible, project plans should be descriptive in how a strategy will be implemented. For example, a plan should list: • The climate change impacts that are being addressed and the adaptation strategies being implemented. • Timing of the adaptation strategy. • Equipment necessary to complete the adaptation strategy. • Professional resources and materials. Strategy: Restore and enhance hydrologic connectivity between riparian areas and the surrounding landscape (i.e., floodplains) by: • Adding wetlands and swales in floodplains adjacent to creeks and rivers. • Protecting more headwater streams through Farm Bill incentives and state programs. • Vegetating intermittent ephemeral streams that are good at processing nutrients. Strategy: Moderate stream temperature increases by increasing stream shading, especially in areas of cool water habitat such as low-order headwater streams. Ensure that tree species planted in buffers will survive hotter temperatures and soil conditions. Strategy: Reduce soil erosion and sediment loading in rivers and streams. This can be accomplished by: • Delaying harvests in multifunctional buffers following heavy rains. • Retaining or adding coarse woody debris to enhance soil structure and stabilize the soil surface. • Reducing bare-ground conditions adjacent to flowing waters and riparian buffers by revegetating or using man-made materials. • Using livestock fencing to prevent grazers from trampling streambanks. Strategy: Protect and restore native riparian forests and vegetative cover to conserve species at risk of decline, such as stream-side salamanders, and to increase water retention and uptake of soils to reduce the impacts of flood events, erosion, and sedimentation. Strategy: Plant species expected to be better adapted to future conditions (See Appendix D). • Use drought-tolerant plant varieties to help protect riparian buffers. 45 • • In flood-prone settings, plant species that can tolerate more severe or lasting periods of inundation. Favor currently present species that have wide ecological amplitude and can persist under a wide variety of climate and site conditions. Strategy: Prevent the establishment of invasive species in riparian areas. This can be accomplished by: • Removing new populations and eradicating existing populations or seed sources of invasive plants upstream. • Maintaining closed-canopy conditions to reduce the ability of light-loving invasive species to enter the understory. • Manage herbivory to promote regeneration and growth of desired species. Strategy: Prioritize riparian restoration on streams that are most likely to retain cool, latesummer flows. Strategy: Facilitate natural community adjustments through species transitions. This can be accomplished by: • Underplanting a variety of native species to increase overall species diversity and age structure. • Avoiding species vulnerable to pest and diseases (e.g. ash, hemlock, etc.) Plant conifers such as red spruce, resistant hemlock, or white pine along streams for thermal cooling. Refer to DCNR’s hemlock conservation plan for guidance. • Removing unhealthy individuals of a declining species to promote other species expected to fare better. This does not imply that all individuals should be removed, and healthy individuals of declining species can be retained as legacies. • Protecting healthy legacy trees that fail to regenerate while deemphasizing their importance in the mix of species being promoted for regeneration. 46 Emergency Management Adaptation Plan Flooding, wind damage, severe weather, and wildfires are all expected to increase due to climate change. Of particular concern are fires in the wildland/urban interface, where the potential for loss of life and dwellings is high. Pennsylvania has a higher percentage of homes in the wildland-urban interface than any other state in the nation. DCNR emergency response personnel are being called on more frequently to respond to these events both within and outside of the commonwealth. Since 1973, more than 150 crews from the Bureau of Forestry have been mobilized for deployment to aid with wildfire suppression and hurricane emergency aid throughout the lower 48 states and Alaska. The climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options listed below were identified by DCNR’s emergency management staff. Because the department does not have the capacity to address the full suite of impacts and vulnerabilities, they rated and prioritized the most important vulnerabilities to address over the next 3 to 5 years. More information on the risk analysis process can be found in Appendix B. Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Actions Vulnerability: Increasing temperatures, periodic drought, and significant reductions in winter snow cover have extended the length and severity of the state’s fire season, which now extends later into the fall and begins earlier in the spring. (High Risk) This trend is expected to continue as climate change progresses. The department’s ability to deal with the increased fire risk is compounded by outdated equipment and not enough staff and volunteers to fight the fires. Actions • • • • • • • Increase capacity of existing resources through additional training and experience. Increase resources for responding to fires, including more trained firefighters and new equipment for wildfire suppression. Strengthen existing cooperative relationships and develop additional cooperative relationships where possible. Use drought monitoring and fire modelling to predict wildfire risk and danger. Develop new ways to communicate wildfire risk and danger to the public. Increase use of prescribed fire on DCNR lands to make ecosystems more resilient to wildfires. Maintain capacity within the volunteer Forest Fire Warden program for wildfire response. Vulnerability: Climate change impacts such as flooding, wind damage, and ice storms will require more elaborate and extensive emergency response. (High Risk) These events are likely to result in damage to infrastructure and could also lead to the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) requesting DCNR resources (personnel, response teams, equipment, etc.) for situations outside of DCNR lands. Damage to trails and roads in State Parks or State Forests could result in stranded visitors, and repeated events may lead to long-term loss of access to some areas. 47 Actions • • • • Integrate climate change impacts into all phases of emergency management. Increase capacity of DCNR personnel to respond to emergencies. Provide Incident Command System (ICS) training to personnel throughout the department. Continue to develop relationships with PEMA and other state and local agencies to increase response effectiveness. Vulnerability: As the number of wild fires and severe weather events increase, our ability to respond will be challenged, particularly when multiple events occur. (Medium-High) The number of DCNR staff and volunteers available, their skill level, and the equipment needed may be insufficient, and we may need to call on the National Guard or out-of-state resources, which will result in delayed responses and significantly increased costs. Actions • • • Review and update preparedness activities based on changing risk profiles and their consequences. Anticipate emergency response challenges and develop new strategies to manage more frequent and complex disasters. Conduct exercises with other state and local agencies that are potential cooperators. Vulnerability: DCNR emergency response staff and teams are being called upon to respond to out-of-state events such as wildfires, hurricanes, and severe weather with greater frequency because of climate change. (Medium-High) When DCNR staff respond outside the commonwealth, they are not available to respond to emergencies arising within the state, impacting our readiness to respond. Additionally, this can impact the department’s productivity, because responders are unavailable to perform their normal daily duties (DCNR staff spent 39,000 hours responding to out-of-state emergencies in 2017). Actions • • • Monitor staff time and balance commitments as needed. Invest in development of interagency partnerships, such as in dispatching and mobilizing resources, to ensure a balanced approach to emergency response workload. Continue to strengthen relationships with federal and state partners, such as US Forest Service and PEMA. 48 Appendix E – Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species Projected Changes in Tree Species Habitat in Pennsylvania Pennsylvania's forests will be affected by a changing climate during this century. The following links summarize projected changes in tree species habitat for four regions in Pennsylvania, and the spreadsheets provide the complete model results for those regions. The Lake Erie and Ontario Lake Plain and Atlantic Coastal Plain areas are too small for analysis; data for these areas are best combined with the larger Mid-Atlantic region and are available here: https://forestadaptation.org/MARspecies. Climate Change Tree Atlas Two climate scenarios were used to “bracket” a range of possible futures. These future climate projections were used with the Climate ChangeTree Atlas DISTRIB model to provide information about how individual tree species' habitat may change. Results for “low” and “high” climate scenarios can be compared on each spreadsheet. These handouts provide more information. Heat and Hardiness Zones Some trees were not modeled by Tree Atlas. For these species, climate change effects can be assessed by examining future projections of hardiness zones and heat zones for regions of Pennsylvania (right). The climate change effect was calculated by comparing the species’ published heat zone tolerance to the map of projected heat zones under two climate scenarios. As 49 temperatures increase, it is expected that hardiness and heat zones will shift by up to 3 hardiness zones and 5 heat zones by the end of the century. This handout provides more information. -Remember that models are just tools, and they’re not perfect. Model projections don’t account for some factors that could be modified by climate change, like droughts, wildfire, and invasive species. These factors, and others, could cause a species to perform better or worse than a model projects. Human choices will also continue to influence forest distribution, especially for tree species that are projected to increase. Planting programs may assist the movement of futureadapted species, but this will depend on management decisions. Despite these limits, models provide useful information about future expectations. It’s perhaps best to think of these projections as indicators of possibility and potential change. The model results presented here provide the best information when combined with information from published reports and local management expertise. 50 Appendix F – Resources PA DCNR & Climate Change website: www.dcnr.pa.gov/Conservation/ClimateChange/Pages/default.aspx Considering Forest and Grassland Carbon in Land Management: https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/54316 PA State Climatologist: http://climate.psu.edu/ Pennsylvania Flood Maps: http://www.floodmaps.pa.gov/Pages/default.aspx DCNR Concept for Multifunction Riparian Forest Buffers: http://www.docs.dcnr.pa.gov/cs/groups/public/documents/document/dcnr_20031972.pdf Bureau of Recreation and Conservation’s Greening Parks and Sustainable Practices: http://164.156.186.112/DCNR/brc/grants/greening/greeninggrants.aspx PA DCNR Invasive Plants website: www.dcnr.pa.gov/Conservation/WildPlants/InvasivePlants/Pages/default.aspx PA Topographic and Geologic Survey website: http://www.dcnr.pa.gov/about/Pages/Topographic-and-Geologic-Survey.aspx Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science website: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/ 51 DCNR Climate Change Adaptation Plan Authors State Parks Paula DeVore Chris Kemmerer Mike Dinsmore Dana Crisp Frances Stein Jeff Johns Brian Flores Rob Neitz Rachel Reese Rory Bower Terri Kromel Shon Robbins Facility Design and Construction Mike Twigg Edward Raptosh Wayne Nguyen Shawn Beeler John Jaskolka Andy Evans Topographic and Geologic Survey Kristen Hand Brian Dunst Helen Delano Executive Staff Cindy Adams Dunn Gretchen Leslie Sara Nicholas Katie Woodbury John Norbeck Mike Walsh Gale Blackmer Lauren Imgrund John Hallas Alfred Uzokwe Dan Devlin Chris Novak Nathan Flood Tom Ford Tara Ramsey Recreation and Conservation Christine Dettore Leslie Sarvis Kelly Rossiter Lori Yeich Ashley Rebert Forestry Greg Czarnecki Ellen Shultzabarger Tim Dugan Seth Cassell Dave Scamaredella Don Eggen Matt Beaver Arianne Proctor Chris Plank Scott Miller Greg Podniesinski Annetta Ayers Shawn Lehman Mike Kern Matt Reed Andy Duncan Rachel Reyna Gary Gilmore Bob Beleski Stephanie Livelsberger Mark Faulkenberry Charles Choplick Brian Pfister Todd Miller Teddi Stark Marah Fielden Kelsey Miller Meredith Malone 52 Acknowledgements The PA Department of Conservation and Natural Resources would like to thank Patricia Leopold of the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS) for her hard work and guidance in developing this climate change adaptation plan. Additionally, we would like to thank her colleagues Chris Swanston, Leslie Brandt, and others at NIACS for their valuable comments that helped to improve the methods used to incorporate climate change into state-level planning. Kailey Marcinkowski and Danielle Shannon provided assistance with graphic design. We also appreciate the assistance of Louis Iverson and Matt Peters in providing datasets and technical support that made this project possible. 53