Copyright 2018 Battleground Online May 3 - 9, 2018 15490 1500 Interviews Q1. Are you at least 18 years old and registered to vote in [STATE]? Overall Gen Unds Independents Yes ........................................................................................................................................................................ 100% 100% 100% No .......................................................................................................................................................................... - Q2. As you may know, in November 2018 there will be an election for Congress and other important offices. How likely are you to vote in the November election? Overall Gen Unds Independents Definitely ................................................................................................................................................................ 75% 50% 64% Probably ................................................................................................................................................................ 16 28 19 Chance 50-50 ........................................................................................................................................................ 9 22 17 Probably not .......................................................................................................................................................... Definitely not .......................................................................................................................................................... - When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a strong Democrat, not very strong Democrat, strong Republican, not very strong Republican, an independent, or some other political party? [IF INDEPENDENT/OTHER] Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party? Overall Gen Unds Independents Strong Democrat ................................................................................................................................................... 22% 2% Weak Democrat ..................................................................................................................................................... 13 10 Independent / Closer to the Democrats ................................................................................................................ 9 13 Independent........................................................................................................................................................... 12 38 100 Independent / Closer to the Republicans .............................................................................................................. 8 12 Weak Republican .................................................................................................................................................. 17 22 Strong Republican ................................................................................................................................................. 19 3 - Q3. DEMOCRAT (NET) ............................................................................................................................................... 34% 11 INDEPENDENT (NET) .......................................................................................................................................... 29 63 100 REPUBLICAN (NET) ............................................................................................................................................. 36 26 - DEMOCRAT W/ LEANERS (NET) ........................................................................................................................ 44% 25 REPUBLICAN W/ LEANERS (NET)...................................................................................................................... 44 38 Q4. [SPLIT C] If the election for U.S. Congress were today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide, which candidate would you lean toward supporting? Q5. [SPLIT D] If the election for U.S. Congress were today and these were the candidates, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide, which candidate would you lean toward supporting? Overall Gen Unds Independents Democratic candidate ............................................................................................................................................ 42% 23% Lean Democratic candidate................................................................................................................................... 3 14 5 Republican candidate ............................................................................................................................................ 38 15 Lean Republican candidate ................................................................................................................................... 4 19 6 Completely undecided ........................................................................................................................................... 13 66 52 DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE (NET) ...................................................................................................................... 45% 14 28 REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE (NET) ....................................................................................................................... 42 19 21 Overall Gen Unds Independents Democratic candidate who supports stronger gun laws........................................................................................ 46% 39% Lean Democratic candidate who supports stronger gun laws ....................................................................................................................................................................... 5 10 Republican candidate who opposes more gun restrictions ............................................................................................................................................................. 35 18 Lean Republican candidate who opposes more gun restrictions ............................................................................................................................................................. 5 6 Completely undecided ........................................................................................................................................... 10 27 DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS STRONGER GUN LAWS (NET) ........................................................................................................................... 50% 50 REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WHO OPPOSES MORE GUN RESTRICTIONS (NET) ................................................................................................................................ 40 23 Global Strategy Group 15490 Battleground Online Page 2/5 You will now see a list of groups and people. Please indicate how favorable or unfavorable you feel toward each. If you haven't heard of them or don't know enough about them to give a rating, please select that option. Q6. FAV UNFAV Heard of, Very Some Some Very can't rate NH • [SPLIT A] Gabby Giffords ................................................................................................................................................................ 24% 24 9 7 19 17 Generic Undecideds 12% 26 10 5 33 15 Independents 21% 22 6 4 27 20 NET FAV 48% 38% 43% UNFAV 16 15 10 FAM 64 52 53 40% 34% 34% 58 59 61 98 93 95 • Democrats in Congress ................................................................................................................................................................. 8% 29 22 34 5 2 37% 21% 21% 56 62 65 93 83 85 • The National Rifle Association, or the NRA ............................................................................................................................ 17% 20 15 42 6 * 37% 35% 25% 56 50 65 93 84 90 • Paul Ryan ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 8% 27 19 34 10 2 35% 30% 28% 53 43 60 88 73 88 • Republicans in Congress .............................................................................................................................................................. 7% 26 22 39 4 2 33% 22% 14% 61 60 74 94 83 88 • Nancy Pelosi...................................................................................................................................................................................... 6% 20 18 43 10 3 26% 15% 12% 61 67 72 87 82 85 • Donald Trump.................................................................................................................................................................................... 19% 21 10 48 1 * Generic Undecideds Independents Generic Undecideds Independents Generic Undecideds Independents Generic Undecideds Independents Generic Undecideds Independents Generic Undecideds Independents 6% 9% 2% 14% 9% 6% 4% 1% 2% 1% 2% 27 25 29 14 21 19 30 46 33 28 21 16 29 37 21 25 24 24 14 9 19 36 32 30 13 10 12 10 29 40 24 24 21 12 6 4 21 10 29 44 21 23 12 7 46 49 13 12 2 1 5 5 2 1 6 2 5 5 5 4 Now you will read some statements about a Democratic candidate for Congress. Please indicate whether each statement raises doubts for you about voting for this candidate using a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means the statement raises no doubts and 10 means the statement raises major doubts. Q7. RAISES DOUBTS SOME/NONE NET Major (9-10) Not major (6-8) Some (3-5) No doubts (1-2) RAISES DOUBTS SOME/NONE MEAN 40% 38% 31 19 21 26 7 17 72% 56% 41 28 44 6.40 7.22 6.43 • [PELOSI PAWN] The Democratic candidate is a liberal pawn who will vote for Nancy Pelosi's liberal agenda without question. The Democratic candidate will be a rubber-stamp vote for more taxes, spending, and government regulations.................................................................................................................................................................. 41% 19 20 20 60% 40 6.44 • [NATIONAL SECURITY] The Democratic candidate will endanger Americans by allowing thousands of immigrants from ISIS-controlled parts of Syria into the U.S. and refusing to take the threat of radical Islam seriously. ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 41% 18 19 22 59% Generic Undecideds Independents Global Strategy Group 15490 Battleground Online Page 3/5 Now you will read some statements about a Democratic candidate for Congress. Please indicate whether each statement raises doubts for you about voting for this candidate using a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means the statement raises no doubts and 10 means the statement raises major doubts. Q7. RAISES DOUBTS Generic Undecideds Independents Major (9-10) 43% 40% Not major (6-8) 23 20 SOME/NONE Some (3-5) 27 27 No doubts (1-2) 7 14 NET RAISES DOUBTS 66% 59% • [IMMIGRATION] The Democratic candidate supports giving amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants who broke the law to cross our borders even though unemployment rates are through the roof and millions of Americans are looking for jobs. ................................................................................................................................................... 40% 17 21 22 57% Generic Undecideds Independents 41% 37% 27 15 23 32 9 16 68% 52% • [GUNS] The Democratic candidate wants to limit our Second Amendment rights, making it harder for lawabiding Americans to protect their families while doing nothing to prevent criminals from getting guns. ..................................................................................................................... 38% 18 19 26 55% Generic Undecideds Independents 39% 28% 23 24 26 25 12 23 62% 52% • [RAISE TAXES] The Democratic candidate is just another tax-and-spend liberal who takes money from hardworking families to pay for wasteful government programs and entitlements. .......................................................................................................................................................... 38% 20 20 22 58% Generic Undecideds Independents 36% 34% 29 26 26 27 8 13 66% 60% SOME/NONE 34 41 MEAN 7.18 6.62 43 32 48 6.31 7.01 6.38 45 38 48 6.10 6.69 5.93 42 34 40 6.25 6.92 6.49 Global Strategy Group 15490 Battleground Online Page 4/5 Now you will read some statements about a Republican candidate for Congress. Please indicate whether each statement raises doubts for you about voting for this candidate using a scale from 1 to 10 where 1 means the statement raises no doubts and 10 means the statement raises major doubts. Q8. RAISES DOUBTS SOME/NONE NET Major (9-10) Not major (6-8) Some (3-5) No doubts (1-2) RAISES DOUBTS SOME/NONE MEAN 39% 54% 23 18 26 14 11 14 62% 72% 28 38 28 7.39 6.80 7.41 28 29 31 7.30 6.89 7.20 34 35 35 6.83 6.53 6.98 31 33 34 7.15 6.81 6.85 36 36 35 6.80 6.67 6.86 40 36 38 6.47 6.43 6.73 • [SPLIT B] [GUNS W/ GUN LOBBY] The Republican candidate is bought and paid for by the NRA and opposes even common sense gun safety laws like criminal background checks on all gun sales and keeping guns out of the hands of domestic abusers. ........................................................................................................... 52% 20 17 11 72% Generic Undecideds Independents • [SPLIT A] [GUNS] The Republican candidate opposes even common sense gun safety laws like criminal background checks on all gun sales and keeping guns out of the hands of domestic abusers. ...................................................................................................................................... 47% 25 18 10 72% Generic Undecideds Independents 36% 39% 35 30 15 25 15 6 71% 69% • [TAXES] The Republican candidate supported President Trump's tax plan that cut taxes on corporations and the top 1% of the wealthiest Americans while raising taxes on hardworking, middle class families....................................................................................................................................... 44% 21 17 17 66% Generic Undecideds Independents 29% 42% 35 23 21 22 15 13 65% 65% • [SOCIAL SECURITY] The Republican candidate supports raising the retirement age and making seniors who have paid into Social Security wait to receive the benefits they deserve. ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 43% 26 22 10 69% Generic Undecideds Independents 35% 38% 32 28 22 20 12 14 67% 66% • [HEALTH CARE] The Republican candidate voted in favor of President Trump's plan to take away health care from hundreds of thousands in our community. ............................................................................................................................... 43% 21 20 16 64% Generic Undecideds Independents 35% 40% 29 24 25 22 11 14 64% 65% • [TRUMP ALLY] The Republican candidate has voted with President Trump nearly 100% of the time, making them one of Trump's strongest allies in Congress. .......................................................................................................................... 42% 18 19 21 60% Generic Undecideds Independents In your opinion, should gun laws in the United States be stronger, less strong, or kept the same as they are now? Q9. 30% 40% 34 22 19 24 17 13 64% 62% Overall Gen Unds Independents Stronger ................................................................................................................................................................. 65% 63% 65% Less strong ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 8 5 Kept the same ....................................................................................................................................................... 28 29 30 Global Strategy Group 15490 Battleground Online Page 5/5 Q10. And which of the following are you more Overall Gen Unds Independents Congress doing nothing to address gun violence ................................................................................................. 63% 65% 70% Congress going too far in restricting access to guns ............................................................................................ 37 35 30 Q11. Sometimes, as people learn more about Overall Gen Unds Independents I've become much more supportive of stronger gun laws ....................................................................................................................................................................... 25% 19% 19% I've become somewhat more supportive of stronger gun laws ................................................................................................................................................................ 23 30 25 My views on gun laws have not changed .............................................................................................................. 42 39 47 I've become somewhat less supportive of stronger gun laws ....................................................................................................................................................................... 5 7 4 I've become much less supportive of stronger gun laws ....................................................................................... 5 6 4 worried about it when it comes to Congress addressing guns? an issue and experience new and different things, their opinions change. What about you? How have your opinions on gun laws changed, or have they not changed, over the past few years? MORE SUPPORTIVE (NET) ................................................................................................................................. 48% 49 44 LESS SUPPORTIVE (NET) .................................................................................................................................. 9 12 8 And how has the amount that gun laws factor into your voting decisions changed, if at all, over the past few years - have you become more or less likely to think about a candidate's stance on gun laws when considering whom to vote for? Q12. Overall Gen Unds Independents I've become much more likely to consider a candidate's stance on gun laws ................................................................................................................................................ 31% 21% 20% I've become somewhat more likely to consider a candidate's stance on gun laws ............................................................................................................................ 31 38 37 My likelihood to consider a candidate's views on gun laws has not changed ............................................................................................................................................ 36 40 41 I've become somewhat less likely to consider a candidate's stance on gun laws ............................................................................................................................ 1 2 I've become much less likely to consider a candidate's stance on gun laws ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1 MORE LIKELY (NET) ............................................................................................................................................ 62% 60 57 LESS LIKELY (NET) ............................................................................................................................................. 2 2