This Washington Post-University of Maryland poll was conducted by telephone May
29-June 3, 2018, among a random sample of 1,015 residents of Maryland including
968 registered voters. Interviews were conducted by live interviewers on both
conventional and cellular phones sampled through Random Digit Dialing as well
as a database of Maryland registered voters. The results among the overall
sample of adults and among registered voters have a margin of sampling error of
plus or minus 4.5 percentage points; the error margin is six points among the
sample of 532 likely Democratic primary voters. Sampling, data collection and
tabulation by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md.
(Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended
at the end.)
RV=Registered voters

LV=Likely voters

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a
Republican), an independent or something else?
6/3/18 RV

Democrat
55

Republican
26

Independent
15

Other
2

No opinion
2

2. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will
vote in the Democratic primary election for governor on June 26: Are you
absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or
less than that?

6/3/18

RV

Certain
to vote
63

Probably
vote
15

Chances
50/50
13

Less than
50/50
7

Will not
vote (vol.)
1

No
op.
*

Will not
vote (vol.)
3
1
1

No
op.
1
1
1

Previous Democratic gubernatorial primaries:

6/8/14 RV
2/16/14 RV
6/25/06 RV

Certain
to vote
53
51
68

Probably
vote
18
24
17

Chances
50/50
15
15
9

Less than
50/50
10
9
4

3. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) If the Democratic primary election for governor
were held today, would you vote for (Rushern Baker), (Ben Jealous), (Rich
Madaleno), (Alec Ross), (Valerie Ervin), (Jim Shea) or (Krish Vignarajah)?
Which one are you leaning toward right now?

Ben Jealous
Rushern Baker
Valerie Ervin
Rich Madaleno
Jim Shea
Krish Vignarajah
Alec Ross

----- 6/3/18 -----Likely
Registered
Voters
voters
21
16
16
14
8
9
6
5
4
5
4
4
2
2

 Other (vol.)
None (vol.)
Would not vote (vol.)
No opinion

4
9
0
26

3
11
3
28

4. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) Who do you think [INSERT]? (Rushern Baker),
(Ben Jealous), (Rich Madaleno), (Alec Ross), (Valerie Ervin), (Jim Shea) or
(Krish Vignarajah)?
a. has the best chance of winning a general election race against Republican
Larry Hogan

Rushern Baker
Ben Jealous
Valerie Ervin
Rich Madaleno
Jim Shea
Krish Vignarajah
Alec Ross
No opinion

----- 6/3/18 -----Likely
Registered
Voters
voters
18
16
18
14
7
5
5
4
4
5
2
4
1
2
45
50

b. has the best experience to be governor

Rushern Baker
Ben Jealous
Jim Shea
Valerie Ervin
Rich Madaleno
Alec Ross
Krish Vignarajah
No opinion

----- 6/3/18 -----Likely
Registered
Voters
voters
18
15
16
13
7
8
6
6
4
3
2
2
2
4
44
49

5. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Thinking ahead to the general election for
governor in Maryland in November, I'd like you to rate the chances that you
will vote: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the
chances 50-50, or less than that?

Certain Probably Chances
to vote
vote
50/50
6/3/18
RV
64
14
13
10/5/14
RV
60
18
12
10/22/10* RV
69
14
8
9/26/10
RV
71
14
10
5/6/10
RV
67
19
11
10/26/06 RV
72
13
7
*2010 and prior: ”and U.S. Senator”

Less than
50/50
7
7
5
4
2
4

Don't think
will vote
(vol.)
2
3
2
1
1
1

Already
voted
(vol.)
NA
1
NA
NA
NA
1

No
op
1
*
1
*
*
1

6. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If the election for governor were held today and
the candidates were (Larry Hogan, the Republican) and ([ITEM], the Democrat),
for whom would you vote? How about if the candidates were (Hogan, the
Republican) and ([NEXT ITEM], the Democrat)? Would you lean toward (Hogan) or
toward ([ITEM])?

 NET LEANED VOTE CHOICE AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS 6/3/18*

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.

Rushern Baker
Ben Jealous
Rich Madaleno
Valerie Ervin
Krish Vignarajah
Alec Ross
Jim Shea

Hogan
51
51
50
51
54
55
53

Democrat
39
39
40
38
35
31
35

Other
(vol.)
*
0
0
*
0
*
*

Neither
(vol.)
2
2
1
2
1
3
4

Wouldn’t
vote (vol.)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

No
op.
7
7
8
8
8
9
7

*Items a-b asked of full sample; items c-g asked of half sample.
7. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS, THIRD OF A SAMPLE EACH) Thinking ahead to the
general election in November, how comfortable would you be with the Democratic
Party making a significant effort to win support from people who [INSERT ITEM]?
Very comfortable, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or very
uncomfortable?

a. voted for Trump
b. voted for Hogan
c. voted for Obama
and then voted
for Trump

-----Comfortable----NET
Very
Somewhat
61
37
25
79
42
37

----Uncomfortable---NET
Somewhat
Very
31
17
14
18
12
6

No
op.
7
4

64

24

12

34

30

9

14

8. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression
of [ITEM]?
6/3/18 Summary Table
a. Larry Hogan
b. Rushern Baker
c. Ben Jealous

Favorable
66
30
33

Unfavorable
20
16
16

No
opinion
14
54
51

Trend:
a. Larry Hogan
Favorable
Unfavorable
No opinion
6/3/18
RV
66
20
14
10/11/15* RV
65
20
16
10/5/14
RV
33
21
46
2/16/14
RV
17
9
74
*2015 and previous: For each of the following people and groups, please tell me
if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person or group, or
perhaps you don’t know enough to say.
b. Rushern Baker
6/3/18
9/30/16

RV
RV

c. No trend.

Favorable
30
12

Unfavorable
16
16

No opinion
54
72

 9. Overall, do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going
in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off
on the wrong track?
6/3/18
4/3/16
10/11/15
2/8/15
2/16/14
2/24/13
10/15/12
1/26/12
10/22/10
9/26/10
5/6/10
10/20/08
10/22/07
10/26/06
6/25/06
1/7/04
10/24/02
10/22/98
6/17/98
12/19/93

RV
RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV

Right direction
60
54
52
48
48
41
48
47
46
40
39
31
46
57
44
57
42
54
53
33

Wrong track
30
36
38
40
43
48
44
44
48
49
49
63
47
39
50
35
51
36
34
56

No opinion
10
10
10
11
9
12
8
9
6
11
12
6
7
5
6
9
7
10
13
11

10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Larry Hogan is handling his job as
governor of Maryland? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

6/3/18
6/3/18 RV
3/19/17
9/30/16
4/3/16
10/11/15
2/8/15

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
71
26
45
74
29
45
65
27
38
71
34
36
66
30
36
61
28
33
42
18
24

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
20
13
7
20
13
7
17
11
6
18
11
7
19
11
8
22
13
9
24
14
10

No
op.
9
5
18
11
15
18
34

48
39
41
41
36
36
33
34
37
36

11
7
10
9
9
9
11
12
10
11

Compare to:
Martin O’Malley
10/5/14 RV
41
2/16/14
55
2/24/13
49
10/15/12 RV
49
1/26/12
55
10/22/10 RV*
55
9/26/10
57
5/6/10
54
10/20/08 RV
53
10/22/07
53
*“Regardless of how you

14
21
16
18
16
21
20
17
14
12
may vote…”

27
33
33
31
39
34
37
37
39
40

30
21
21

25
36
42

14
12
13
14
15
15
16
17
16
18

34
27
28
28
21
21
17
17
21
19

Bob Ehrlich
10/26/06 LV
6/25/06 RV
1/7/04
All

55
56
62

Parris Glendening:

42
41
28

19
21
17

23
20
11

3
3
10

 10/24/02 LV
10/22/98 LV
6/17/98 LV

37
54
55

9
16
14

29
38
41

58
40
36

22
21
19

37
19
18

4
6
9

11. (HALF SAMPLE) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Larry Hogan is
handling [ITEM]? How about [NEXT ITEM]?
6/3/18 Summary table*

a.
b.
c.
d.

the economy
education
taxes
transportation

Approve
65
43
55
51

Disapprove
22
40
32
34

No
opinion
14
18
13
15

Trend
a. the economy

6/3/18
3/19/17
4/3/16
10/11/15

------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
65
NA
NA
60
NA
NA
58
22
36
59
24
35

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
22
NA
NA
23
NA
NA
28
15
13
25
12
13

No
op.
14
17
14
16

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
43
NA
NA
50
NA
NA
51
20
31
47
22
25

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
40
NA
NA
33
NA
NA
29
12
17
32
11
20

No
opin
18
17
19
22

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
55
NA
NA
51
NA
NA
55
24
31
49
22
27

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
32
NA
NA
29
NA
NA
26
11
15
31
12
19

No
opin
13
20
19
19

b. education

6/3/18
3/19/17
4/3/16
10/11/15
c. taxes

6/3/18
3/19/17
4/3/16
10/11/15

d. transportation

6/3/18
4/3/16
10/11/15

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
51
NA
NA
54
26
29
52
26
26

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
34
NA
NA
23
11
12
26
11
15

No
opin
15
23
22

12. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS, HALF SAMPLE) On another subject, would you
support or oppose [ITEM]?
Support
a. raising the minimum wage in Maryland,

Oppose

No
opinion

 which will reach about 10 dollars per
hour this summer, to fifteen dollars per hour
b. legalizing the sale and taxation of
marijuana for personal use

64

31

4

52

41

6

Compare to:
In general, do you favor or oppose legalizing the possession of small amounts
of marijuana for personal use?
9/30/16 RV
2/16/14 RV

Favor
63
47

Oppose
32
45

No opinion
5
8

13a. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Maryland recently passed a law making tuition
free at state community colleges for recent high school graduates whose
families have annual incomes under $150,000, at an annual cost of fifteen
million dollars. Do you support or oppose this law?

6/3/18

Support
78

Oppose
18

No
opinion
4

13b. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Another proposal is to offer free tuition at ALL
state public colleges and universities to accepted students who are Maryland
residents at a much higher annual cost to the state. Would you support or
oppose this proposal?

6/3/18

Support
58

Oppose
35

No
opinion
6

14. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS, HALF SAMPLE) As you may know, Maryland committed
to funding the Metro rail and bus system with $167 million per year in
additional permanent funding, in combination with similar contributions from
Virginia in the District. Do you support or oppose Maryland’s funding
commitment to Metro?

6/3/18

Support
71

Oppose
18

No
opinion
11

15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as
president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

6/3/18

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
28
17
12

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
68
8
60

No
opinion
4

** END **
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS
This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and The
University of Maryland's Center for American Politics and Citizenship within
the College of Behavioral and Social Science's Department of Government and
Politics. The poll includes interviews in English and Spanish.

 This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order
as appears in this document. Demographics are not shown. If a question was
asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question
identifies the group asked. Questions that contain parenthetical phrases
indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Trended references
to results with “LV” or “RV” indicate results among likely voters or registered
voters.
A total of 304 interviews were completed using dual frame Random Digit Dialing
(RDD) procedures of landline and cellular phones in Maryland, while 303
interviews were completed by randomly sampling from a database of Maryland
registered voters maintained by Aristotle, Inc., in which voters have been
matched to landline and cellular phone numbers. An additional 408 interviews
were completed among Democratic registered voters sampled through the voter
database. The sample frames were deduplicated such that phone numbers existing
on the voter list frame were not eligible for selection through the RDD frame.
The final combined sample of registered voters was weighted to match the
proportions of Democrats, Republicans and other registrants according to the
Maryland Board of Elections.
In the RDD sample and cellphone voter file sample, interviewers called first
requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. In the
voter file landline sample, interviewers confirmed respondents’ names were the
same as those listed in the voter registration database. The total sample
included 493 interviews on landlines and 522 interviews completed via cellular
phones, including 281 interviews with adults in cellphone-only households.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in
the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct
for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The
overall sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of
selection among individuals who were interviewed through the RDD and voter list
samples based on the size of each frame.
Weights correct for differential probability of selection for landline-only,
cellphone-only and dual phone users. Results are also weighted to match the
demographic makeup of the population according to the latest American Community
Survey by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education and by region of Maryland, and
the National Health Interview Survey by telephone usage.
All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect,
which is 2.0 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the
survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account
decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys
that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision.

Group
All adults
Half sample
Registered voters
Half sample
Democrats
Republicans
Indep/Other

Unweighted
sample size
1,015
491-517
968
438-495
698
156
114

Error
% of weighted
margin (+/-)
sample
4.5 points
6-6.5
4.5
6.5-7
5.5
11.5
13.3

Democratic likely
Voters
532
6
*April 2018 voter registration statistics

55%
26
19

Maryland Board
of Elections*
NA
NA
100%
NA
55%
26
20

 The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative,
which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the
research they produce.
Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington
Post conducts polls.