l-17-89 Bruce Mast Contracts 105 Davenport House The final report for account (1-5-37867) with the Shell Development Company has been sent in. The contract should be closed. Thank you. Karen Garrelts Atmospheric Sciences 101 Atmos Sci 3-2046 University of Illinois Grants and Contracts Of?ce at Urbana?Champaign 105 Davenport House 217 333-2186 . FROM: SUBJECT: 809 South Wright Street Champaign Illinois 61820 Date: March 7. 1988 Karen Garrelts Atmpospheric Sci. Wm. D. Morgan Associate Director Grant Contract Administration Shell Development Co. RE39912LA Please review the attached contractual document. If it meets with your approval, indicate your acceptance by signing below or having the Project Director sign below and return it, along with the document, to this office for further processing. Giza/46L zkdject Director All persons employed in the performance of this contract are subject to its terms regarding patents, copyrights, or other intellectual property rights. Please have all such persons read the intellectual property terms of the contract and signify their understanding and acceptance of the stated terms. For assistance in interpreting the significance of the contract terms, you may call this office. The department or unit head is requested to sign the following statement before returning the contract to this office. I hereby certify that all persons engaged in the work of this contract, and before commencing such work, shall have read its intellectual property provisions, indicated their understanding thereof, and agreed to accept those provisions as part of their terms of employment. HEAD DATE Shell Development Company A Divmon 01 Shell Oil Company Bellaire Research Center P. O. Box 481 Houston. Texas 77001 3737 Bellaire Boulevard Houston. Texas 77025 February 26, 1988 The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois c/o Mr. J. J. Kramerer, Director Grants and Contracts Administration 807 South Wright Street Champaign, IL 61820-6219 Dear Mr. Kramerer: PROPOSAL TO DEVELOP AN ANALOG SYSTEM FOR PREDICTION OF SEA ICE SEVERITY We have completed our review of the proposal submitted by Professor John Walsh, dated August 1987, to develop an analog ice forecasting system. We feel that the development of such a model will enhance our present capabilities and are interested in pursuing the system development as outlined in the proposal. Attached is a Purchase Order for the amount of $26,235. This Purchase Order includes a description of our standard terms and conditions under which this work is to be performed. Please note that we have specified a minimum confidentiality period of two years beginning upon completion of the work. We understand that this length has already been agreed upon from past discussions between Professor Walsh and Mr. Dave Agerton, formerly with Shell Western Inc. Further, this confidentiality is limited to only the development of new technology. All data supplied by Shell, and results derived for the benefit of Shell, shall still remain confidential. As discussed recently between Professor Walsh and Mr. Mitchell Winkler of our staff, completion of the work within the August-September 1988 time frame is acceptable. Presently, we are interested in the prediction of summer season in both the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. As a minimum, we would like to have the model applied to two sites each in both these regions. Accordingly, we will make historical season length records available to the project. In addition, we would like to have the performance of the new model compared to the older statistical model for the case of the SWEPI ice season index. Although we would like the analog model to share the same Mr. J. J. Kramerer basic capabilities as the older statistical model, we do not feel that both models need be similar. For example, we are not completely satisfied with the use of quintiles to provide a measure of model skill and would encourage you, if possible, to suggest an alternative measure. Please do not hesitate to contact Mitchell Winkler at (713) 663-2779 if you have any questions. We look forward to working with you on this project. .M . Ward, Manager Offshore Engineering Research Department Very ruly yours, Attachment cc: Professor John E. Walsh Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Champaign, IL 61820-6219 TO BE COMPLETED BY REQUESTINQ DEPARTMENT . TTYPEWRITER EQUIPMENT. INSERT END FIRST. FORM MAY BE HANDWRITTEN ALSO. i. MAKER AND DEPARTMENT DATE TOT.EST. COST SHOW ANY SUGGESTED NAMES ERE M. M. Winkler OERD 2/ 15/88 26 235 Unitg?raity Ill 018 DATE REQUIRED DEUVER TO (NAME AND ROOM) RESALE APPROVED ISITI A ASAP M. M. Winkler 2252 MR- TO BE USED FOR Analog Ice Forecast Model COMMODITY CODE CODE. w. 370-27802.4 . . INVOICE MUST BE FORWARDED To THE ADDRESS VENDOR INDICATED ON THIS ORDER FAILURE TO DO 1 so WILL DELAY OR PREVENT PAYMENT PURCHASE ORDER No. Show Ims SHELL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PURCHASE ORDER Number on InvoIces. Tags. Boxes. etc. HEREIN CALLED cam-ac FRONT: REVe-as BACK: REV. 6-85 (1?49 RE BLANKET ORDER NO. (IF APPLICABLEI ALTERATION NO. RELEASE NO. DATE REB 2/ 19/88 I. SHIP TO The Board?of Trustees of the University of c/o Mr. J. J. Kramerer, Director Grants and Contracts Administration m?llIE?Li DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PARCEL POST P. 0. BOX 481, HOUSTON. TX. WI 807 South Wright Street TR - 3737 8 .TX. ?5 Champaign, IL 61820-6219 ROOM NO. 2252 HEREIN CALLED BILL 1'0 I .. ., .-.- . IMPORTANT Mail Invoice in QUADRUPUCATE with two copies of DEVEI-OPMENT TELEPHONE QFREIGHT BILL (when PREPAID and ADDED to INVOICE), P. 0. BOX 1382 493.717] - EOGEMENT. SHIPPING NOTICES and BILLS 0F LADING Io: HOUSTON. TEXAS 77001 SHIP F.O.B. TERMS TAXABLE NON-TAXABLE PREPAID DTO INVOICE El COLLECT If delivery is not or cannot be made by Contractor must so notify BUYER immediately, and BUYER reserves the right to cancel this order in whole or in part. To give such notice. or for any further information. contact if routing is NOT specified, ship by cheapest route; but if that route will not meet required delivery date contact BUYER for instructions. lfproduots are subject to released wlue FREIGHT RATES and sold FOB origin with FREIGHT CHARGES for account. ship at the released value which will provide the lowest rate. 130 NOT insure shipments unless speci?cally ir'structed N0 CHARGES will be allowed? for packing or certage unless speci?ed in QUOTATION. Show cash discount terms on invoice..All invoices for material on which no discount is allowed will be paid 30 days from date invoice is received QUANTITY . MATERIAL OR SERVICE PRICE 1 This purchase Order provides up to the amount shown for $26,235.00 completion of the study entitIEd?"An An ang System'fbr Prediction of Sea Ice Severity" which is described in the attached proposal dated?lugust I987. Projects costs may be billed corresponding to progress. Ten percent of the total project cost will be retained until receipt and acceptance of the final reportT'Pl??asnend?all?- invoices and correspondence to M. M. Winkler, Shell Development i Company, P. 0. Box lI81, Houston, Texas, Additionally, the parties hereto agree as fo?IIOws: IMPORTANT: All provisions on the face hereof, as well as all conditions on the back hereof are part of this order. Read them carefully. No substi- tutions or changes will be effective without written approval. -c cc? u?A?ug. SHELL OIL COMPANY (1-33) 1 PURCHASE ORDER NO (Show SHELL CHEMICAL COMPANY SHELL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY El 0-30419 (REV. 10-32) HEREIN CALLED meE ORDER on Invmcus, Tags Boxes. elc BLANKET ORDER NO. (II applicable) ALTERATION N0. RELEASE NO. DATE 2/19/88 CONTRACTOR CONTINUATION SHEET PAGE 2 OF 4 THIS CONTINUATION SHEET IS SUBJECT TO ALL TERMS COND . ITIONS AND INSTRUCTIONS CONTAINED AND REVERSE SIDE OF FIRST PAGE HEREOF. FACE ARTICLE I SECRECY AND INVENTIONS 1.1 As used herein, the term "Confidential Information" shall mean technical infOrmation relating to the work performed by Contractor and general knowledge of Shell's I I I plans and activities, confirmed or discrosed?to?Contractur by Shell and/or affiliates of Shell (or on behalf of Shell or such affiliates) either direCtly or indirECtTy?tn?Writing u; by ?drawings or by inspection of plants or in any other way, unless such information is in Contractor?s possession-at?the?time uf disclosure without binder of secrecy, or is then or thereafter becomes part of the public?knowledge or fault of Contractor's, or is thereafter received by Contractor I I from a third party without binder or secrecyT??Confidential Information disclosed under this Agreement shall not be deemed I to be within the foregoing exceptions?merety?bECause?such information is embraced by more general information in the public domain or in Contractor?s 1.2 All Confidential Contractor, shall be and remains the property of Shell; and Contractor, its agents, servants, shall not divulge any such Confidential Information to third parties, nor publish same, nor use same?fOr?auy?purpose than in connection with the work done hereunder, without the advance written consent of Shell. 1.3 All work performed ror?Sheti_by?Contrantur hereunder (including but not limited to all information, data, reports, working notes, drawings, de developed or prepared by Contractor in connection with such work) shall become the property of?Shell, unless?specifically otherwise agreed upon in writing by Shell and Contractor, and no information concerning suc? by Contractor to third parties without the advance written conEEnt?of?Sheil. New shall remain confidential for a minimum of two years beginning upon completion or?tne __I._provisions of this Contract, to the end that Confidential of this Contract, paragraphs 1.2 and 1.3 hereof shall continue I in force following termination or expiration-of-theuother I I Information, and information relating tO"fhe remain confidential indefinitely and never be I revealed except as authorized in writing by Shell. i l; I I I PRTD. (1-83) 1 SHELL OIL COMPANY PURCHASE ORDER NC (Show Hus SHELL CHEMICAL COMPANY ORDER Number on Invmces, Tags. Bonn-s, ulr) SHELL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY CI 0-304-9 (REV. 10-82) HEREIN CALLED BLANKET ORDER NO. (if applicable) ALTERATION N0. RELEASE N0. DATE 2/19/88 CONTINUATION SHEET PAGE 3 OF 4 CONTRACTOR THIS CONTINUATION SHEET IS SUBJECT TO ALL TERMS, CONDITIONS AND INSTRUCTIONS CONTAINED ON FACE AND REVERSE SIDE OF FIRST PAGE HEREOF. 1.5 If, as a result of or incidental to any work or ctor hereunder, any inventions are conceived, made, or developed by to Shell's business or that of its subsidiaries or affiliates, all ctor shall: give notice thereof to Shell; formally assign to . therein and cause employees of Contractor to formally assign all of 3 Contractor to execute any necessary documents and otherwise for such inventions. ARTICLE II PATENTS AND ROYALTIES 11.1 Contractor shall report to Shell, and in I or I copyright infringement based on the performance of this contract UL or suit against Shell on account of any alleged patent or copyright or out of the use of any supplies furnished or work or services [1 2 requested by Shell, all evidence and information in possession or Lontr A m'rn?rn' J. DH i SERVICES $33 VF . 0110: shall be and remain an independent contractor, and Contractor 3 a . Ct or otherwise as having employee status within Shell nor shall te in any plans, 1 ib Shell or its affiliates compensation, bonus, stock bonus, hospitalization,Tinsurance or other-bane Shell employees. . ?a - .1 SHELL OIL COMPANY . SHELL CHEMICAL COMPANY PURCHASE ORDER SHELL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY 0.30.1-9 (REV. 10-82) I 1 HEREIN CALLED BLANKET ORDER NO. (if applicable) ALTERATION NO. RELEASE NO. DATE 2/19/88 CONTRACTO THIS SHEET IS SUBJECT TO ALL TERMS, CONDITIONS AND INSTRUCTIONS CONTAINED ON FACE CONTINUATION SHEET PAGE 4 OF 4 AND REVERSE SIDE OF FIRST PAGE HEREOF. Shell shall have the right to determine scope PURCHASE ORDER NO (Show Hus Shell also shall have the right to modify said programs or this contract. Contractor shall have the sole control over the this contract, and Shell shall have no direction or control Of results to be Obtained. Contractor shall be free to dispose of that portion nf your nor obligated to devote hereunder to Shell and its subsidiaries, in as you deem advisable so long as you do not create a conflict of corporations. ARTICLE IV TERMINATION IV.1 This Contract shall be in effect for a term unon I completion of the work, provided, however, that Shell may date. Upon the effective date of any such termination, Contractor shall be reimbursed for Contractor's Recoverable Cn effective, but Contractor shall not be entitled to any other of claims for damages, or for loss Of anticipated profits, or getharwisei the foregoing terms and conditions by signing below and returning one copy to Shell. The Board or Iruscees of *Batc the University Of Illinois University of Illinois REQUEST FOR ANTICIPATION ACCOUNT at Urbana-Champaign REQUEST TO USE EXPIRED 0R OVERDRAFTED ACCOUNT TO: Grants Contracts Office FROM: Mankin Mak I 3?11488' Name (Type or Print)" Signature Date Dean's Approval (if required) THE UNIT IS TO COMPLETE A THROUGH C, AS APPROPRIATE A. REQUEST FOR ANTICIPATION ACCOUNT Notice has been received from the sponsor that the pending proposal listed below will be funded. Permission is requested to incur costs in anticipation of an award. If the proposal is not funded or if the resulting award has a different effective date, all unallowable charges will be transferred by the unit in accordance with Guideline 16-ID-200, Section E, of the General Policy Guidelines. PROPOSAL DATA (on file in the Grants Contracts Office). InVEStigator John Walsh Unit Atmospheric Sciences Title An AnalqgiSystem for Prediction of_??a Ice Severity Sponsor Shell Western P, Inc. Proposal Ref. No. EXISTING AWARD DATA (if applicable): Award No. Acct No. Termination Date ANTICIPATION REQUEST: Amount 11.000.09 Period (Limited to 3 Months) 3?21?88 to 6-20?88 (Please check one of the following): 1) A NEW ACCOUNT NUMBER IS REQUESTED: a. This is a new project, b. It is not known how the Sponsor will fund the project (renewal or continuation), c. This is a continuation of an AFOSR or EPA grant/cooperative agreement, or This is a new project period for a PHS grant. 2) CONTINUED USE OF THE EXISTING ACCOUNT NUMBER LISTED ABOVE IS REQUESTED: The project will be continued with the same grant/contract number and is ngt_a continuation of an EPA or AFOSR grant/cooperative agreement. In the event the Sponsor assigns a different grant/contract number, a new University account number will be assigned, and the Unit agrees to transfer all allowable charges to the new account. B. REQUEST TO USE EXPIRED OR OVERDRAFTED ACCOUNT 1 Permission is requested to use the existing account listed in A above: 1. To incur c05ts in anticipation of a no-ccst extension which has been requested from the sponsor through the Grants Contracts Office, or 2. To incur costs in excess of the award for the purpose of accumulating total project costs. C. DISTRIBUTION After this form has been processed by the Grants Contracts Office, please distribute a copy to: Name Karen Garrelts Address 101 Atmos Sci (MC 223) D. GRANTS CONTRACTS OFFICE Request approved as noted Request deni New Account Number :5 g?7Title5Hg0C WHL, va 9/ Form GC 70 Rev 1/85 Grants Contracts Office DATE University of Illinois REQUEST FOR ANTICIPATION ACCOUNT at Urbana-Champaign REQUEST TO USE EXPIRED OR OVERDRAFTED ACCOUNT TO: Grants Contracts Office FROM: Mankin Mak 3-11-88 Name (Type or Print)? Signature Date Dean's Approval (if required) THE UNIT IS TO COMPLETE A THROUGH C, AS APPROPRIATE A. REQUEST FOR ANTICIPATION ACCOUNT Notice has been received from the sponsor that the pending proposal listed below will funded. Permission is requested to incur costs in anticipation of an award. If the proposal is not funded or if the resulting award has a different effective date, all unallowable charges will be transferred by the unit in accordance with Guidel? 16-ID-ZOO, Section E, of the General Policy Guidelines. PROPOSAL DATA (on file in the Grants Contracts Office). Principal Investigator John Walsh Unit Atmospheric Sciences Title An Analog Svstem for Prediction of Sea Ice Severity Sponsor Shell Western P, Inc. Proposal Ref. No. EXISTING AWARD DATA (if applicable): Award No. Acct No. Termination Date ANTICIPATION REQUEST: Amount 11?000,00 Period (Limited to 3 Months) 3?21-88 to 6?20?88 (Please check one of the following): 1) A NEW ACCOUNT NUMBER IS REQUESTED: a. This is a new project, b. It is not known how the Sponsor will fund the project (renewal or continuatio: c. This is a continuation of an AFOSR or EPA grant/cooperative agreement, or This is a new project period for a PHS grant. 2) CONTINUED USE OF THE EXISTING ACCOUNT NUMBER LISTED ABOVE IS REQUESTED: The project will be continued with the same grant/contract number and is not_: continuation of an EPA or AFOSR grant/cooperative agreement. In the event the Sponsor assigns a different grant/contract number, a new University account number will be assigned, and the Unit agrees to transfer all allowab charges to the new account. 8. REQUEST TO USE EXPIRED OR OVERDRAFTED ACCOUNT 1 Permission is requested to use the existing account listed in A above: I. To incur cos:s in anticipation of a no-ccst extension which has been re" from the sponsor through the Grants Contracts Office, or 2. To incur costs in excess of the award for the purpose of accumulating total project_costs. C. DISTRIBUTION After this form has been processed by the Grants Contracts Office, P1e distribute a copy to: Name Karen Garrelts Address 101 Atmos Sci (MC 223) D. GRANTS CONTRACTS OFFICE Request approved as noted Request denied New Account Number Title Form GC 70 Rev 1/85 Grants Contracts Office DATE University of Illinois Grants and Contracts Of?ce .. ham ai lOS'Davenpart House 217 333-2186 at Urba a 809 South Wright Street Champaign, IL 61820-6219 To: (meie. Date: '7/z2?f? From: Bill Morgan Ref: Per our Telephone Conversation For Your Information Thank You Per Your Request Comments: . - University of Illinois Grants and Contracts Of?ce ham ai 165 Davenport House 217 333-2186 at Urbana 809 South Wright Street Champaign, IL 61820-6219 July 1, 1988 E. C. Ward, Manager Offshore Engineering Research Department Shell Development Company Bellaire Research Center P. O. Box 481 Houston, TX 77001-0481 Re: Purchase Order No. RE41855LA Dear Mr. Ward, Pursuant to your letter of 17 June 1988 to Dr. Mapother, please find enclosed one copy of the above referenced Purchase Order properly signed on behalf of The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. This P. 0. now reflects terms negotiated between Dr. Mapother and Mr. Winkler. Regarding General Conditions on the reverse side of Shell's Purchase Order, the following deletions/understandings are recognized. These have been previously discussed with Mr. Winkler: 1) The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois is prohibited by State Statute from contracting to indemnify and/or hold harmless. Accordingly, the following deletions are recognized: a) Article 3 Taxes, the last part of the sentence beginning the is deleted in its entirety. b) Article 5 - Infringement, this article is deleted in its entirety. c) Article 11 - Liability?Indemnity, this article is deleted in its entirety. d) Article 14 Bills and Liens, the wording indemnify CONTRACTOR from the last sentence is deleted in its entirety. 2. Article 7 - Default, the penalty provision included therein item 7 is deleted in its entirety. This is a best- efforts project, and no funds are available to cover re- procurement of similar services. 3. Article 12 - Insurance, Shell accepts that the University of Illinois is self-insured. 4. Article 13 - Use of Premises, this article is considered not applicable. Per your request, I am also returning your original Purchase Order Please contact me at (217) 333-5897 if any of the above creates difficulties for Shell. Sincerely, Wm. D. Morgan, Associate Director Grant Contract Administration Mast Mapother Walsh CC: hUw 368 The Board of Trustees of the University of DEVELOP ENT COMPANY . . INVOICE MUST BE FORWARDED To THE ADDRESS VENDOR 1 INDICATED ON THIS ORDER. FAILURE To DO . so WILL DELAY OR PREVENT PAYMENT. PURCHASE ORDER NO. Show this SHELL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PURCHASE ORDER HEREIN CALLED 0-304-86 FRONT: REV. 685 BACK: REV. 6_-85 pn?rD. (11-87) A RE 4/ BIANKET ORDER No. (lF APPLICABLE) ALTERATION No. RELEASE NO. DATE . .- . 6/ 14/ 88 washbasins-ANDADDRESS: .. assists shin-arrogr. . c/o Mr. Dillon Mapother Associate Vice Chancellor for Research 001 Swanlund Administration Building 601 East John Street ROOM NO. 2252 Champaign, IL 61820 HEREIN CALLED BILL . IMPORTANT: Mail invoice In QUADRUPUCATE with two copies of SHELL DEVELOPMENT CO. TELEPHONE -FREIGHT BILL (when PREPAID and ADDED to INVOICE), p? 0. BOX 1382 493;" 11 NOTTCES, and BILLS OF HOUSTON, TEXAS 772514382 SHIP F.O.B. TE 8 TAXABLE NON-TAXABLE WI BPREPAID mom COLLECT 5 [64/59/44 My! cancei this order in whole or in part. To give such notice, or for any further information, contact 1. If delivery is not or cannot be made by Contractor must so notify BUYER immediately, and BUYER reserves the right to 2. If routing is NOT specified, ship by cheapest route; but if that route will not meet required delivery date, contact BUYER for instructions. If products are subject to released value FREIGHT RATES and sold FOB origin with FREIGHT CHARGES for account, ship at the released value which will provide the lowest rate. DO NOT insure shipments unless speci?cally instructed. NO CHARGES will be allowed for packing or canage unless specified in QUOTATION. 3. Show cash discount terms on invoice. All invoices for material on which no discount is allowed will be paid 30 days from date invoice is received. QUANTITY MATERIAL OR SERVICE 1 PRICE - This purchase order provides up to the amount shown for "?completion' of'the study?entitled "An Analog System for Prediction of Sea Ice Severity" which is described in the University of Illinois proposal dated August 1987. Projects costs may be billed to Shell in'inStallments' corresponding to progress. Ten percent of the total project cost will be retained until receipt and acceptance of the final report. Please send all invoices and correspondence to M. M. Winkler, Shell Development Company, P. O. Box 481, Houston, Texas, 77001. Additionally, the parties hereto agree as follows: IMPORTANT: All provisions on the face hereof, as well as all conditions AUTHORIZED BUGS m3? on the back hereof, are part of this order. Read them carefully. No substi- tutions or changes will be effective without written approval. PURCHASING NOTICE: THIS FORM CONTAINS A LIABILITY-INDEMNITY CLAUSE ON SIDE. PLEASE READ CAREFULLY I CONDITIONS. The following General Conditions are always applicable, and the following Work Order Conditions are also applicable when this Order provides for performance of any work. . GENERAL CAUTION. Flammable liquids and gases may be present In equipment and work areas involved thf;thls Order. CONTRACTOR must take extreme care in such performance. and accept the entire risk to CONTRACTOR and CONTRACTORS Cpgoperty In connection herewith. . - '3 . . GENERAL . - a .. . 1. Contract. This Order. when accepted by CONTRACTOR either in writing 6. Assignan Neither this Order nor any claim~against BUYER arising or by shipment of any article or other commencement of performance hereunder. directly or indirectly out of or in connw tion with this Order shall be assignable by constitutes the entire contract between CONTRACTOR and BUYER concerning its CONTRACTOR or by operation of la . nor shall CONTRACTOR subcontract any subject matter; and neither any contrary or additional conditions then specified by obligations hereunder. withou?tBUYER's prior written consent. CONTRACTOR nor any subsequent amendment 0" supplement Sha" have any 7. Default. If CONTRACTOR or any subcontractor breaches any provision effect Without BUYER ?me? approval. hereof. or becomes insolvent. enters bankruptcy. receivership or other like proceed- 2. Quality Assurance. All articles. materials and work furnished shall be of ing (voluntarily or involuntary). or makes an assignment for the benefit of creditors. good quality and free from any defects. and shall at all times be subject to BUYER shall have the right, in addition to any other ri it may have hereunder or inspection. but neither inspection nor failure to inspect shall relieve by law. to terminate this Order by giving CONTRACT written notice; whereupon CONTRACTOR of any obligation hereunder. If. in BUYER's 0(a) BUYER shall be relieved of-all further obligation hereunder. except to pay the material or work fails to conform to Specifications or reasonable value of CONTRACTOR's prior performance. but not more than the CONTRACTOR shall replace same at CONTRACTOR's expense. No contract price and title to any product(s) of CONTRACTOR's work. whether acceptance or payment by BUYER shall constitute a waiver ol.the foregoing; and . . complet . or partially completed. as well as allmaterialsprepared. procured or set nothing herein shall exclude or limit any warranties implied 'by law. aside? by ONTRAC OR 'for use in-tt'ie Work. shall. at option upon giving . . - - - . . . . RACTOvaestln and BUYER may enter CON- 3. Taxes. Unless otherwrse prowded herein or by law. CONTRACTOR shall written notice to .CONI - . . pay all sales. use. excise. and other taxes. charges. and contributions now or a heme ?fir-and? hereafter imposed on. or with respect to. or measured by the articles. materials or work furnished hereunder or the -'compensation aid to persons'employeq inij?? .1 connection 'with performance hereunder; mam-mm 4 . - . El HWhTeis?xofthe ?n e'reof. to require strict performance . -. R'right ?Hm by CONTRACTOR shall not be affected by any waiver. forbearance or course of dealing. 4. Compliance. In performance .hereunder and every.activjty connected . . therewith. CONTRACTOR shall comply fully with all or'dinances. pa rules and regulations. and. when requested. shall furnis. Ge satis actory ?0 BUYER Or to any other parties arising in any way out of this Order BUYER of such compliance. Without limiting the foregoing CONTRACTOR . rf warrants that all articles and materials furnished were and shall be produced in or "5 pe ormance. compliance with the Fair Labor Standards Actoflaas as.amendedExcuses?. Either CONTRACTOR or BUYER shall be excused from per- fOrmanc'eof the obligatiOns hereunderwhen and to theextent thatsuch performance against all clam.? - 33:1; a direiffientf . i? .. is delayed drpre'vented (andpin case. its need for the articles. materials or any patent. copyright or traarising in connection 1' workis reduced 9? by any 9"Cum5tances reasonably beyond control. 0' . . use or othe .. . disposition of any article or material . by' ?re. eprOSion. any strike or labor dispute or any act or omission of_any manufactur- - 4 - . ereunder. BUYER may partiCipate in - . - iseofanySUCh claim o?r'suif without relieving CONTRACTOR of any obligation hereun- - . . WORK ORDER CONDITIONS . Liability-Indemnity (Cont'd.) m, Gave?imentalauthOrity. . - 10. Performance. CONTRACTOR shall perform all work diligently. carefully and in a good and workmanlike manner; shall furnish all labor. supervision. If I icially determined that any of the indemnity obli ati machinery. equipment. materials and supplies necessary therefor; shall obtain and CONTRACTOR ag all be supported by insur are invalid. maintain all building and other permits and licenses required by public authorities in illegal or unenforceable . ligations shall automatically be connection with performance of the work; and. if permitted to subcontract. shall be amended onetary limits and other provisions in the fully responsible for all work gedormgd (by subcontractors. CONTRACTOR shall law for so long as that law is in . conduct all operations in NTRA R's own name and as an independent 12 Insurance. Without in an wa limitin an of CONTRACTOR's obliga- and name 0? as a99'" BUYER - tions. indemnities or liabilities under {more 11. shall maintain at all Liability-Indemnity. CONTRACTOR shall be solely responsible for - timesthetollowing'r?inimum insbrarice. at CONTRACTOR's expense. incompliance mate ls. equipment and services until the work is completed to BUY _'\with'all'applicable laws ?and satisfactory to BUYER: Workers? Compensation satisfac n. CONTRACTOR's responsibility for loss of or damage to rk in Employers' Liability Insurance?limit of$100.000 progress (i luding materials on the premises or in storage or in transit ich are each occurrence. both coverages to apply to liability as applicable under any state or intended for corporation in the work) shall. however. be limited to 1.000 per federalstatute or through any common law process; Comprehensive Automobile occurrence. CO TRACTOR shall be solely responsible for tools. -ouipment and Liability Insurance?combinedlbodily injury and property damagelimit of 3300.000 other property ow o. rented or leased by CONTRACTOR or an . bcontractor or each occurrence; Comprehensive General Liability Insurance (including con- employee of either are not to be incorporated in the wor . tractual c0verage for Articlell above) combined bodily/personal injury and Except as stipu . ed above in this Article 11. and to maximum extent property damage limit of 5300.000 each occurrence; and any other insurance permitted by applicable la ut no further). shall defend. indemnify BUYER may require. and hold harmless BUYER. it narent and Subsidiary panies. coventurers. and Whenever requested. CONTRACTOR shall furnish evidence satisfactory to directors. employees and agen of such compani against any loss. damage. BUYER that such insurances are in effect. claim. suit. liability. judgment ande ense (includi . attorneys? fees and other costs of litigation). and any fines. penalties . asses - ents. arising out of injury. disease as to iglrg?grogrgfallamzr??n :gghgac?ag: or death 0? persons or_ damage ?0 or loss an roperty (including but "Ot I'm'ted.t? contractors on the premises and shall take and cause and every existing faCilities) or the enViron . -nt resulting from or in connection With subcontractor's employees agents licensees and permittees to take all necessary performance or nonperformance 0' Order by "5 precautions (including those required by safety regulations) to protect the usedb . ceconcurrentand/orcontributory premises and all persons and property thereon from damage or injury. Upon (Whether pass or of any kino rdescription) or fault of a party completion ofthe work CONTRACTOR shall leave the premises clean and free of all indemnified; subject to the next - cceeding sentenc- erein. Without regard to the equipment waste materials and rubbish extent of negligenceif?any. of . indemnified party. CO RACTOR. at its expense, shall defend any such'clai . or suit against an indemnifi . arty and shall pay any judgment resulting ther om. If. after CONTRACTOR has 0 defended any such suit and paid any re a ting judgment, it is judicially determin\ that the injury. disease, death or . age was caused by the sole negligence of a . .x\y indemnified. - 14. Bills and Liens. CONTRACTOR shall pay all indebtedness for labor. materials and equipment used in performance of the work. CONTRACTOR shall not be entitled to receive final payment from BUYER. until CONTRACTOR furnishes evidence satisfactory to BUYER of full payment of such indebtedness. then BUYER sh reimburse CONTRACTOR for the judgment and reasonable CONTRACTOR shall not permit any lien or charge to attach to the work or the defense costs' curred. BUYER shall have the right but not the duty to \\icipate in preMIses; If any does so attach, CONTRACTOR shall PerPi'Y procure "5 the delens of any such claim or suit with attorneys of its own selectio ithout release, . 'ehevm' ONTRACTOR 0' any. 99"gai'005 hereunder. 15. Changes. CONTRACTOR shall make no change in the work or perform he indemnifies. and ?ab'm'es 3559".? bythe CONTRAC 3 any additional work without specific written approval. BUYER may order un- Anic'e ?1 shall be by any prowsrons 0' limits 0' changes in the work or require additional work at any time. and CONTRACTOR shall ?"ed by Article ?2 below. comply therewith; but the price hereunder shall be increased by an amount equal to the increase (if any) in CONTRACTOR's cost of labor and materials. plus 10% of such increase. Back: Rev. 6-85 Front Rev. 6-85 Cw SHELL OIL COMPANY CI - PURCHASE ORDER NO (Show thus SHELL CHEMICAL COMPANY mR Number on Invoices, Tags Boxes, etc.) SHELL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY El 0304-9 (REV. 10-82) HEREIN CALLED BLANKET ORDER NO. (if applicable) ALTERATION NO. RELEASE N0. DATE '6f14/88 CONTINUATION SHEET PAGE 2 OF 4 CONTRACTOR ?Universitv of Illinois THIS CONTINUATION SHEET IS SUBJECT TO ALL TERMS. CONDITIONS AND INSTRUCTIONS CONTAINED ON FACE AND REVERSE SIDE OF FIRST PAGE HEREOF. ARTICLE I SECRECY AND INVENTIONS 1.1 As used herein, the term "Confidential I?fvContractor by Shell which relates to the work performed by ?lu'u ?Ani- - 5 in writing or other tangible form and marked if disclv- riting within thirty (30) days. Confidential Information shall not 4 1.11:1? ?b ins-V3 time of disclosure by Shell hereunder, or was already in ?An . . a I "Confidential Information" shall cease to apply to infOrmation 111 of Contractor, or is disclosed to Contractor without binder of ecy by a third A11 0.. ?$581 Iafermation supplied by She'H tn m1.vuxxz.a.u?uu; Contractor, shall be and remains the property of Shell; and Contractor, its shall not divulge any such Confidential Information to third - g: so - 9 Id" than in connection with the work done hereunder, withOut the nnO- AF 1 LCJ i- - hereunder (including but not limited to reports, data, work on I Confidential Information provided by Shell shall become the preperty cf be divulged or disclosed by Contractor to third parties without Al is not based on Confidential Information provided by Shell shall remain oonfidenti er completion Of the Project. PRTD. (1-83) 1 SHELL OIL COMPANY PURCHASE ORDER NO. (Show this SHELL CHEMICAL COMPANY WW ORER Number on Invonces, Tags, Boxes, etc.) SHELL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY [1 0304-9 (REV. 10-82) HEREIN CALLED BLANKET ORDER NO. (if applicable) ALTERATION NO. RELEASE NO. DATE p. 6/14/88. CONTINUATION SHEET PAGE 3 OF 4 CONTRACTOR UniverSity of Illinois THIS CONTINUATION SHEET IS SUBJECT TO ALL TERMS, CONDITIONS AND INSTRUCTIONS CONTAINED ON FACE AND REVERSE SIDE OF FIRST PAGE HEREOF. 1.5 Inventions made by employees of Contactor resulting from work done?hereunder Shall oe?a?d?remain the property of Contractor. Shell shall have an exclusive, worldwide, irrevocable, paid-up license to use?ahd?praCtice such inventions, whether or not patented, in its businesses, which license may be extended by Shell to its affiliates?aha subsidiaries without accounting to Contractor therefor. Contractor may license third parties for appliCatIOhs'which do not infringe the license rights granted Shell hereinabove. I.6 Notwithstanding any other provision hereof, the rights and obligations provided herein shall survive?compiEtion or termination of this contract. ARTICLE II SERVICES AND MANNER 0F 11.1 In the performance of this cont??CfT?Cb?traCtor shall be and remain an independent contractor, and Contractor shall not be considered under the provisions or this?toutraCt or otherwise as having employee status within Shell nor shall Contractor be entitled to participate in any plans: arrangements, or distributions by Shell or its affiliates relating to any pensions, deterred compe ck bonus, hospitalization, insurance or other benefits extended to Shell employees. 11.2 Shell shall have the right to determine scope and objective of the programs or projects under this contract. Shell also shall have the right togm?dify?said?programs or projects as the work progresses during the term of this contrac subject to reimbursement or confraCtor for any additional costs incurred as a result of such modification. Contractor shall W"_Thave the sole contrOl the results to be achieved under this contract, and Shell shall have no employees and agents, except in the results to be Obtained. I 11.3 Contractor shall be free to dispose of that i portion of your entire tim re not obligated to devote hereunder to Shell and its subsidiaries, in any manner you see fit and to any as you deem advisable so long as you do not create a conflict 01 interest between Shell and any corporations. . - mm. - (1 as) 1 SHELL OIL COMPANY CI PURCHASE ORDER NC. (Show this SHELL CHEMICAL COMPANY mm Wk Number on lnvouces, Tags, Boxes, etc.) SHELL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY CI 0.304-9 (REV. 10-82) HEREIN CAILED BLANKET ORDER NO. (if applicable) ALTERATION NO. RELEASE NO. DATE 6/14/88 CONTINUATION SHEET PAGE 1, OF 4 CONTRACTOR University of Illinois THIS CONTINUATION SHEET IS SUBJECT TO ALL TERMS. CONDITIONS AND INSTRUCTIONS CONTAINED ON FACE AND REVERSE SIDE OF FIRST PAGE HEREOF. ARTICLE TERMINATION 111.1 This Contract shall be in effect for a term out first above and ending upon completion of the work, provided, however, that Shell may notice to contractor. Upon the effective date of any such termination, being done hereunder. Contractor shall be reimbursed for Contractor's Recoverable to the time that the termination becomes effective, but Contractor shall not be entitled to any other campenaatimgmcount of such termination, whether by way of claims for damages, or for loss of anticipated profits, or otherwise. Please indicate your concurrence with the foregoing terms and conditions by signing below and returning one copy to Shell. Craig S. Bazzani, Comptroller ?/j?/Fop for The Board of Trustees of Date The University of Illinois University Of Illinois Grants and Contracts Of?ce 105 Davenport House 217 333-2186 at Urbana Champalgn 809 South Wright Street Champaign, IL 61820-6219 - September 4, 1987 of I Ref. No. MR. DAVID AGERTON SHELL WESTERN P, INC. 200 NORTH DAIRY ASHFORD HOUSTON, TX 77079 Title: AN ANALOG SYSTEM FOR PREDICTION OF SEA ICE SEVERIIX, Amount: ?26,235,00 Period: OCT. 1. 1987 - SEPT. 30. 1988 Principal Investigator(s) JOHN E. WALSH Department ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE Type of Requestz?g New Request, Supplement, Continuation, Renewal for Existing Award Revision of Original Proposal Transmitted on Proposal Number Enclosed are copies of the referenced proposal. This proposal has been reviewed by the proper University administrative officials and has been approved for submission. Your consideration will be appreciated. Any contract or grant supporting the above described project must be issued in the University's corporate name, The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801. Any questions of a non?technical nature regarding this proposal should be addressed to Willie Dozier or Jay Menacher at the above telephone number. Sincerely, LCM . Wm Morgan, A f: Iirec or Grant and Contra. nis ra ion WDMzef Enclosure cc: Judith Liebman, Vice-Chancellor for Research KAREN Estimated Budget Salaries J. Walsh, 1 month B. Ross (programmer, months 8739 Total salaries Fringe benefits (11.366%) Computer (U. of Ill. Cray X-MP) Telephone, postage, supplies Total Direct Costs Indirect Costs 52.2% (18,266-3,000) Total Costs $13,189 1,527 3,000 300 $18,266 7,969 $26,235 July 29. 1987 Mr. David Agerton Shell Western P, Inc. 200 North Dairy Ashford Houston, TX 77079 Dear Dave: As a follow-up to our telephone conversation, I have enclosed a description of a project that would produce an analog system for long?range prediction of Alaskan ice severity. Also enclosed is an estimated budget totaling approximately Because the project would draw upon previous analog model development by the National Weather Service and others, we should be able to complete the work within one year. The project personnel at Illinois would be myself and a research programmer, E. Ross, who has been working on Arctic-related projects for the past five years. Resumes and publications lists for both of us are attached. If there is interest at Shell in this type of project, we can submit a formal research proposal through the University. We can also mod- ify the present outline to better suit your needs. Thanks for your consideration. I look forward to hearing from you. Sincerely. John Walsh JW:nm Enclosure Sponsor deadline UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN postmarked by PROPOSAL FORM receipt by (submit three copies of this form completed on both sides with proposal) IDENTIFICATIONS: Principal Investigator Name: Last First Middle SSN Initiating Dept/Division Walsh John 183?40?9013 Atmospheric Sciences Co-principal lnvestigator(s): Last First Ide/e SSN Home Department(s) Proposal Title:1 An analog system forgrediction of sea ice severity Sponsor/Agency Name: Shell Western P, Inc. 200 North Dairy Ashford, Houston, TX 77079 Sponsor/Agency Address: Agency Begin date: 10?1-87 End date: 9'30'88 (Request For Proposal, if applicable) Other agencies to which proposal was/will be submitted: None Supports a program of: (check one) Basic Research2 CI Instruction CI Public Service KI Applied Research2 Commercial Testing 0 Student Aid CI Product Development2 CI Other (specify) Proposaltype: (check one) New Revised proposal or budget CI Supplementary request CI Renewal3 CI Continuation3 For renewal or continuation, please provide previous grant number (not acct. APPROVAL REQUIREMENTS: It is understood that if a grant or contract results from this application, the principal investigator will perform the administrative duties normally associated with the project. The principal investigator assures that s/he makes this submission with the understanding that any resulting grant or contract will contain no provision restricting the University's right to publish research results, and that if any question of such restriction arises in subsequent negotiation s/he will assist in arranging the further review that will be required. 08?31-8 7 Date Principal lnvestigator(s) or lnitiatcr(s) of Proposal Approved by: 08-31?8 7 Date Executive Officer(s) of Department(s) Date Dean or Director Date Other Signatures if Required4 Office of Grants Contracts Research Board Authorization (1), (2), AND (3) See definitions on attached green sheet. (4) See approval requirements on attached green sheet. For information on this proposal call (phone) SPECIAL MAILING INSTRUCTIONS: (Attach label 8: special instructions if needed) BUDGET INFORMATION: Direct Costs 18 266 (If is less than approved rate, a waiver must be approved by 7 969 Dept. Exec. Officer and Dean and Vice Chancellor for Research) Indirect Costs Total 26 235 Cost Sharing in the form of contributed effort: yes no Allocation of University Funds: In addition to the funds provided by the sponsor, other funds committed to this project are documented in the proposal and include: From Campus/Central Administration From College From Department From Other University Sources, (including Research Board) Please specify: COMPUTING SERVICES: ORGANIZATION TOTAL REQUIRED REQUESTED FROM SPONSOR CSO PLATO 3 000 NCS A 3 000 SPACE: Acceptance of the proposal will will not require that additional space be made available to the department or that existing space be renovated. If renovation or additional space is needed, arrangements to meet this need have been made with the Office of Space Utilization and are described on the attachment. COMPLIANCE: (check all that apply) Work performed under this proposal involves: use of human subjects. or classified research purchase of computer equipment Exemption requirement for environmental $10,000 use of live vertebrate animals5 statement consultant payment use of live organisms in a construction of building IPA nonclinical safety study patent or copyright IRIS chemical hazard considerations potential conflict of interest has radiation hazard equipment acquisition only been identified and addressed biological hazard recombinant DNA prior Research Board seed money hazardous or pressurized gases use of PLATO i use of proprietary or confidential other hazard international program4 information NONE OF THE ABOVE 4) See approval requirements on attached green sheet. (5) Submit lab animals care form LACAL-1 and Protocol with proposal. 4/87 Proposal submitted to Shell Western P, Inc. from the Board of Trustees, University of Illinois AN ANALOG SYSTEM FOR PREDICTION OF SEA ICE SEVERITY John E. Walsh Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Start Date: October 1, 1987 Duration: 1 year Amount Requested: $26,235 John E. Walsh H. J. Stapleton J. J. Kamerer Principal Investigator Secretary Director 183-40-9013 Campus Research Board Grants and Contracts Phone: (217) 333-7521 Office August 1987 An Analog System for Prediction of Sea Ice Severity A. Background The two major approaches to sea ice forecasting are numerical models and statistical procedures. The range of forecasts derived from numerical models such as the U.S. Navy Polar Ice Prediction System see Preller, 1985) is limited to 5?7 days by the accuracy of the forcing data required to drive the model. Consequently, the so-called "long?range" forecasts for periods of a month to several seasons are based on statistical procedures. The U.S. seasonal ice forecasts for the Alaskan region rely heav- ily on a pair of April air pressure indicators selected nearly ten years ago (Barnett, 1980). A more sophisticated system, recently developed by Sea Ice Consultants (SIC) under contract with Shell Western, is based on systematic scans of correlations between an ice severity index and multi-month fields of atmospheric sea level pressure and geopotential height. The SIC proce- dure uses screened grid-point predictors in multilinear regression equations derived from the historical data base. An alternative approach to long-range statistical forecasting is the analog method, whereby the past year(s) that most closely resemble the year being forecast are objectively determined. The essence of an analog fore- cast scheme is the postulate that the predictand will evolve as it did in the analog year(s). The identification of the analog years is made in terms of predictors or predictor fields that are known to be physically relevant to predictand evolution. Because the analog approach offers several sig- nificant advantages over the grid point correlation/screening approach (see pp. 2-3), it may be viewed as an extension of the ice forecasting system now in use at Shell Western. Significant skill derived from analog techniques has recently been demonstrated in studies at the Canadian Climate Center (Shabbar and Knox, 1986) and the U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (Live- zey and Barnston, 1987). In the latter case, sufficient skill was found in analog forecasts of United States temperatures that the analog system "has been adopted as a major input for operational use by official forecasters" at the NWS (Livezey and Barnston, 1987, p. 1). The emergence of the analog technique as a major weather forecasting tool has positive implications for long-range forecasts of weather and sea ice, and has motivated this proposal. More specifically, the analog ap- proach offers the potential to extend considerably the Alaskan ice fore- casting capability developed for Shell Western by Sea Ice Consultants. The capabilities of the forecast system will be enhanced in the following ways by the analog input: (1) Whereas the user of approach based on screening of correlation grids was "locked into" forecasts of a particular ice index (used in com- puting the grid point correlations), the analog methodology permits the extrapolation of a forecast to other predictands--subject only to the requirement that the ice?index data base include the analog years. Figure 1 shows schematically how the ice index enters the forecast scheme before predictor selection in the correlation/screen- ing approach, but after predictor selection in the analog case. ANALOG Atmospheric Time series Atmospheric data of ice index data Grid point Analog year predictor selection selection Time series of ice index 3 Forecast Forecast of ice index of ice index Schematic comparison of correlation/screening and analog approaches to forecasts of ice severity index. Fig. 1. 3 Should exploratory/drilling operations expand to other high-latitude regions, the analog approach can be applied to the new region immedi- ately; by contrast, the re?implementation of the correlation/screen- ing approach would require a return to the initial computational stages and the re-computation of all correlation grids. (2) As the severity ranks of the analog years cluster more closely togeth- er, the confidence level of an analog forecast increases. Each set of analog years can be assigned a measure of consistency based on the difference in the ice severity rank of those years. This "consis- tency statistic" will serve as a readily quantifiable indicator of the confidence to be placed in a particular analog forecast. (3) Extreme years can be identified and forecast through the routine imple- mentation of an analog system, whereas a system based on correlations or correlation scans can be subject to statistical dilution of the associations that are most relevant to the evolution of an extreme ice year. (H) The evolutionary nature of the predictor fields can be incorporated directly into the analog determination, by defining metrics based on a series of sequential predictor/predictand matches and their summation or integration over all the months. Temporally- dependent weighting of the more recent months can be objectively employed in order to avoid the temporal averaging inherent in the use of multi-month mean predictors. (5) The analog approach is conceptually simple and therefore more easily grasped by users than is the "black box" component of a system of correlation scans, predictor screening, and regression equation for- mulation. B. Proposed work The proposed work includes the design, formulation and testing of an analog system for forecasting seasonal ice severity. The procedure will draw heavily on the analog system recently implemented by the National Wea- ther Service (NWS) for United States temperature forecasting. However, the application to forecasts of a sea ice severity index will require several modifications and corresponding experimentation. On the basis of the NWS system development and our own sea ice fore- casting experience, the following predictor inputs will be supplied to the analog selection procedure: Sea level pressure, 5? 10? lat long grid, 700 mb geopotential height, 5? 10? lat long grid, (0) Sea surface temperature, u? xu? lat long grid, and Southern Oscillation Index as computed by NWS. 14 In all cases, the data will be and will cover the period 1950-1985. The period spanned by the developmental data base is essentially the same as the 1950?198? period used by the NWS. The statistic to be used as a measure of the analog "match" will be the root-mean?square (rms) difference between the grid or index of the forecast year and the corresponding grid or index of the possible analog year. The year(s) with the smallest differences will be selected as the analog year(s). Verification statistics will be based on the set of analog fore- casts for all years for which the ice severity index is available. (The values of or computational procedures for this ice severity index will be provided by the sponsor.) An analog system will be constructed for opera- tional usage in forecasts made at the end of January, February, July of the year for which the forecast is valid, as well as November and December of the antecedent year. 8.1 Sensitivity experiments At the core of an analog system development is a set of sensitivity tests pertaining to various aspects of the analog selection procedure. The following list of sensitivity tests is intended to indicate the types of parameters to be optimized in the models for each month: Number of analogs. The analog forecast made during any month will be the ice severity index averaged over the best analog years. In view of the sample size used here and previous experience with long- range weather forecasts, the optimum values of will likely be in the range of 2-6. Experimentation will establish the optimum value for each month. Length and weighting of antecedent period. The skill of forecasts made in a particular calendar month will likely depend on the length of the antecedent period used for determining the best analogs. A weighting of the more recent months relative to the less recent months is also likely to impact the forecast skill. Antecedent periods of 1-8 months will be examined systematically prior to the final selection of the analog model for a particular month, as will the effect of uniform vs. inverse-time weightings of the statistics of the antecedent months. (0) Evolutionary vs. stationary metric. The metric can be a mean of the differences for antecedent months, or it can be a single value computed from the m-month mean of the predictor data. These two alternatives will be compared, and the superior alternative will be used consistently in all models. Regional weighting of grid point differences. It is likely that pre- dictor values near the predictand region will represent more meaning- ful input to an analog selection system. The sensitivity tests will include experiments in which the metric is computed using distance-weighted grid-point differences. The weights will decrease with increasing distance from the predictand region. 5 Predictor subsets. In view of NWS experience, analog models from which one or more of the four predictors are deleted will also be examined. Should skill be unchanged (or higher) without one or more of the predictors, the predictor(s) will not be included in the analog se- lection scheme for that month. C. Products A final report will contain the parameters and structural elements of the analog models to be used for forecasts issued at the end of November, December, July. The model parameters and structural elements will be those addressed in the sensitivity tests described above. Skill assessments will be presented in terms of the mean absolute error of the predicted severity index, the mean absolute rank error, the average error of the forecast quintile, and probability distributions showing the likelihood of occurrence of each quintile in the case of a forecast of quin- tile (should be noted that the skill statistics will be valid for independent data because a year being forecast is not included in the pool of potential analogs the forecast year is effec- tively independent of the predictor pool). The error analysis will also include a quantitative evaluation of the relationships between forecast skill and the consistency clustering) of the analog-year values of the ice index. This evaluation will form the basis of an algorithm for assigning confidence levels to specific forecasts on the basis of the similarity of the analogs. Finally, all the predictor datasets will be provided so that the analog models can be implemented directly at the site most appropriate for real- time usage by the sponsor. D. References Barnett, D. G., 1980: A practical method of long-range ice forecasting from the north coast of Alaska. Sea Ice Processes and Models (R. Pritchard, Univ. of Washington Press, Seattle, 402-409. Livezey, R. E., and A. G. Barnston, 1987: An operational multifield analog prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures. Part I: System design and winter experiments. Mon. Weather Rev., 11:, in press. Preller, R. H., 1985: The Polar Ice Prediction System A Technical Description. NORDA Report 108, NSTL, MS, 61 pp. Shabbar, A., and J. L. Knox, 1985: prediction by the analogue method. Proceedings, Tenth NOAA Climate Diagnostics Workshop, College Park, MD, Washington, DC, 672-681. Estimated Budget Salaries J. Walsh, 1 month $4700 B. Ross (programmer, months 8739 Total salaries Fringe benefits (11.366%) Computer (U. of Ill. Cray Telephone, postage, supplies Total Direct Costs Indirect Costs 52.2% (18,266-3,000) Total Costs $13.u39 1,527 3,000 300 $18,266 7.969 $26,235 RESUME John E. Walsh ADDRESS Office: Department of Atmospheric Sciences Home: 712 W. Delaware Ave. University of Illinois Urbana, IL 61801 1101 W. Springfield Avenue Tel. (217) 34M-U939 Urbana, IL 61801 Tel. (217) 333-7521 PERSONAL DATA Born 9 August 19H8, Philadelphia, U.S. Citizen EDUCATION 1970 B.A. Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (Mathematics and Computer Science) 1979 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (Meteorology) EMPLOYMENT 1986-87 Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Oceanography ONR Chair in Arctic Marine Science, Visiting Professor 197u-pres. University of Illinois, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Meteorology (1985- Associate Professor (1979-85); Assistant Professor (197u-79) Research: polar meteorology, numerical and statistical forecasting Course instruction: polar meteorology, physical meteorology, numerical weather prediction, introductory meteorology 1977, 1983 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO Visiting Scientist: polar meteorology and climatology 1976-1979 Arctic Institute of North America, Arlington, VA Consultant: data analysis, sea ice forecasting 1969-1970 U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office, Polar Oceanogr. Div., Washington, D.C. Science Aid (summers): sea ice forecasting OTHER EXPERIENCE Chairman, AMS Committee on Polar Meteorology (1983-1985) Member, Committee on Geophysical Data, National Academy of Sciences (198u-1986) Science Advisor, Arctic Five-Year Plan Consultative Workshop, Anchorage (1986) Speaker, National Science Board hearing on NSF Role in Polar Regions (1986) Participant lecturer, Workshop on Long-Range Forecasting, World Meteor. Org. (1982) Lecturer, NATO Advanced Study Institute on Air-Sea?Ice Interaction (1981) Participant, AIDJEX Arctic research flights, Barrow, Alaska (1975) PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES American Meteorological Society American Association for the Advancement of Science American Geophysical Union Arctic Institute of North America List of Publications John Walsh Journals and books: Sater, J. E., J. E. Walsh and W. I. Wittman, 197?: A study of the impinge- ment of sea ice on the north coast of Alaska. The Coast and Shelf of the Beaufort Sea, The Arctic Institute of North America, pp. 85-105. Walsh, J. E., 197?: Sea breeze theory and applications. J;_Atmos. Sci., 31, 2012-2026. Mak, M.-K., and J. E. Walsh, 1976: On the relative intensities of land and sea breezes. J:_Atmos. Sci., 33, 2?2-251. Walsh, J. E., 1976: On the nesting of grids in computations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 10?, 735-7?3. Walsh, J. E., 1977: Measurements of the temperature, wind and moisture distribution across the northern coast of Alaska. Arctic and Alpine Research, 193-151. Walsh, J. E., 1977: The incorporation of ice station data into a study of recent Arctic temperature fluctuations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 1527- 1535. Walsh, J. E., 1978: Temporal and spatial scales of the Arctic circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 1532-15??. Walsh, J. E., and C. M. Johnson, 1979: An analysis of Arctic sea ice fluc- tuations, 1953-77. J;_Phys. Oceanogr., 2, 580-591. Walsh, J. E., and C. M. Johhson, 1979: Interannual atmospheric variability and associated fluctuations in Arctic sea ice extent. J;_Geophys. Res., 6915-6928. Walsh, J. E., 1980: Empirical orthogonal functions and the statistical predictability of sea ice extent. Sea Ice Processes and Models, Uni- versity of Washington Press, pp. 373-38?. Walsh, J. E., and A. Mostek, 1980: A quantitative analysis of meteorologi- cal anomaly patterns over the United States, 1900-1977. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 615-630. Walsh, J. E., and M. B. Richman, 1981: Seasonality in the associations between surface temperatures over the United States and the North Pa- cific Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 767-783. Walsh, J. E., and J. E. Sater, 1981: Sea surface temperature effects in northern high latitudes. J;_Geophys. Res., 86, 7?25-7??5. Mostek, A., and J. E. Walsh, 1981: Relationships between large-scale pat- terns of corn yield and meteorological variability over the United States. Agricul. Meteor., 23, 111-12?. Walsh, J. E., and D. Allen, 1981: The accuracy of the Farmer's Almanac predictions. Weatherwise, 212-215. John Walsh Publications--journals and books Walsh, J. E., M. B. Richman and D. W. Allen, 1982: .Spatial coherence of precipitation in the United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 272-286. Hibler, W. D. and J. E. Walsh, 1982: On modeling the seasonal and interannual fluctuations of arctic sea ice. Phys. Oceanogr., 12, 1514-1523. Walsh, J. E., D. R. Tucek and M. R. Peterson, 1982: Seasonal snow cover and short-term climatic fluctuations over the United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1u7u-1u85. Klein, W. H., and J. E. Walsh, 1983: A comparison of pointwise screening and empirical orthogonal functions in specifying surface temperatures from 700 mb data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 669-673. Walsh, J. E., 1983: Diagnostic studies of large-scale air-sea-ice interac- tions. Chapter 12 in The Geophysics of Sea Ice (N. Untersteiner, Reidel Publ. Co., New York. Walsh, J. E., 1983: The role of sea ice in climatic variability: a current assessment. Atmos.-Ocean, 21, 229-242. Walsh, J. E., W. D. Hibler and B. Ross, 198A: A model simulation of twenty years of northern hemisphere sea ice fluctuations. Annals of Glaciology, 5, 170-176. Walsh, J. E., 198?: Snow cover and atmospheric variability. Amer. Sci., 72, 50-57. Walsh, J. 3., and M. B. Richman, 1984: Reply to comment by R. L. Haney. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 871. Walsh, J. 3., 198A: Forecasts of mb height: Verification and specification experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2135-21H7. Walsh, J. E., W. D. Hibler and B. Ross, 1985: Numerical simulation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice variability, 1951-1980. Geophys. Res. (Oceans), 99, u8u7-4865. Walsh, J. E., W. H. Jasperson and B. Ross, 1985: Influences of snow cover and soil moisture on air temperature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 756-768. Walsh, J. 3., 1985: Book Review of Dynamics of Ice Cover (L. A. Timokhov, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 1550-1551. Walsh, J. E., 1985: Sea ice - climatic changes. of Clima- tology, Hutchinson-Ross Publ. Co., Stroudsburg, van den Dool, H. M., W. R. Klein and J. E. Walsh, 1986: The geographical distribution and seasonality of persistence in mean air tem- peratures over the United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 11?, 546-560. John Walsh Publications--journals and books Herman, G. F., J. E. Walsh, W. H. Raymond, R. E. Schlesinger and B. Ross, 1986: Observing system sensitivities in the North Atlantic during FGGE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 11?, 2133-2153. Ross, 8., and J. E. Walsh, 1986: Synoptic-scale influences of snow cover and sea ice. Mon. Wea. Rev., 11?, 1795-1810. Walsh, J. E., W. I. Wittmann, L. H. Hester and W. S. Dehn, 1986: Seasonal prediction of iceberg severity in the Labrador Sea. J;_Geophys. Res., 9_1. 9683-9692. Walsh, J. E., D. W. Plummer, G. Eh Herman, B. Ross and W. H. Raymond, 1986: Data sensitivities of sea ice drift and ocean stress in North Atlantic high latitudes. Geophys. Res., 913 11,657-11,676. Zwally, H. J., and J. E. Walsh, 1987: Comparison of observed and modeled ice motion in the Arctic Ocean. Ann. Glaciol., 2, in press. Ross, B., and J. E. Walsh, 1987: A comparison of simulated and observed fluctuations in Arctic surface albedo. J;_Geophys. Res., submitted. List of Publications John Walsh Other articles: Walsh, J. E., 1977: Ice forecasting limitations imposed by the accuracy of atmospheric prediction models. AIDJEX Bulletin, No. 36, 1-13. Walsh, J. E., 1978: A data set on Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, 1953- 76. Glaciological Data, GD-2. Walsh, J. E., 1981: Sea ice data sets. Snow Watch 1980, Glaciological Data, GD-11, 139?1uu. Walsh, J. E., and D. R. Tucek, 1982: On the use of snow cover as a short- term climatic predictor. Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Climate Diag- nostics Workshop, U. S. Department of Walsh, J. E., 1982: Surface forcing by sea ice, snow cover and soil mois- ture. Long-range forecasting expert study meeting, World Meteorologi- cal Organization, Princeton, New Jersey (December 1982), 13 pp. Walsh, J. E., 1983: Continental snow cover and associations with 700 mb height: 1966-1980. Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Climate Diag- nostics Workshop, U. S. Department _of Commerce/NOAA, 189-195. Walsh, J. E., and W. D. Hibler 198?: East Greenland sea ice variabil- ity in large-scale model simulations. MIZEX Bulletin, Modeling the Marginal Ice Zone. U. S. Army CRREL Special Report 8M-7, 1- 8. Walsh, J. E., 198?: Numerical simulation of North Atlantic sea ice varia- bility, 1951- 1980. North Atlantic Deep Water Formation, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Workshop Report (in press), 36-38. Walsh, J. E., 198A: Snow cover, soil moisture and associated atmospheric variability. Studies in Climate (H. van Loon, Ed. NCAR Technical Note National Center for Atmospheric Research, 336- 360. Walsh, J. E., G. F. Herman, W. Raymond, B. Ross and R. Schlesinger, 1985: Observing system sensitivities in the North Atlantic during FGGE. Preprints, Seventh Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, Boston, ?129- 136. Walsh, J. E., and W. H. Jasperson, 1985: Land surface fluctuations and associated climatic variability. Preprints, Third Conference 22_Cli- mate Variations and Symposium 92_Contemporary Climate, American Mete- orological Society, Boston, 85-86. Richman, M. R., and J. E. Walsh, 1985: Hemispheric pattern analysis of weekly 500 mb data. Preprints, Ninth Conference on Probability and Statistics, American Meteorological Society, Boston, 101- 107. Walsh, J. E., 1986: Surface-atmosphere interactions over the continents: The Namias influence. Namias Symposium Volume, University of Califor- nia Press, 161-171. List of Publications John Walsh Other articles - 2: Walsh, J. E., 1986: Northern Hemisphere sea ice variability: Observed and simulated. Canadian East Coast Workshop on Sea Ice, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Bedford, NS, 1-21. Wittmann, W. I., L. H. Hester, W. S. Dehn and J. E. Walsh, 1986: Long-range prediction of iceberg severity in the Labrador Sea. Canadian East Coast Workshop on Sea Ice, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Bedford, NS, 331-360. Walsh, J. E., 1986: High-latitude coverage and applications of COADS. Proceedings, COADS Workshop, NOAA Environmental Research Laboratories, Boulder, CO, 21-25. RESUME Becky J. Ross ADDRESS Office: Department of Atmospheric Sciences Home: 710 E. University of Illinois Urbana, IL 61801 1101 w. Springfield Ave. Tel. (217) 31111-80116 Urbana, IL 61801 Tel. (217) 333-2128 EDUCATION 1980 B.A. Mawr College, Mawr, PA (Physics) 1982 M.S. Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (Atmospheric Science) EMPLOYMENT 1982-pres. University of Illinois, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Scientific Programmer 1980-1982 Purdue University, Department of Geosciences Research Assistant: mesoscale cellular convection AWARDS 1981 June Bacon-Bercey award (AGU) for women in atmospheric science PROFESSIONAL AND HONONARY SOCIETIES American Meteorological Society Sigma Xi List of Publications Becky Ross Aronson, M., P. Beckmann, B. Ross and S. W. Tan, 1981: Intramolecular reorientations and the effects of thermal history and hydrogen bond- ing in four closely related organic molecular solids. Chemical Phys- ics, 3N9-358. Walsh, J. E., W. D. Hibler and B. Ross, 198?: A model simulation of 20 years of Northern Hemisphere sea ice fluctuations. Ann. Glaciol., 2! 170?176. Ross, B., 198?: A model investigation of interannual sea ice variability in the Beaufort Sea. J. Glaciol., 223-226. Walsh, J. E., W. D. Hibler and B. Ross, 1985: Numerical simulation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice variability, 1951-1980. J. Geophys. Res. (Oceans), 29} Walsh, J. E., W. H. Jasperson and B. Ross, 1985: Influences of snow cover and soil moisture on air temperatures. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 756-768. Ross, B. and E. Agee, 1985: Aircraft investigation of wintertime convec- tive and non-convective boundary layers over the East China Sea. Meteor. Soc. Japan, NOS-N17. Herman, G. F., J. E. Walsh, W. H. Raymond, R. E. Schlesinger and B. Ross, 1986: Observing systems sensitivities in the North Atlantic during FGGE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 11?, 2133-2153. Ross, B. and J. E. Walsh, 1986: Synoptic-scale influences of snow cover and sea ice. Mon. Wea. Rev., 11H, 1795-1810. Walsh, J. E., D. W. Plummer, G. F. Herman, B. Ross and W. H. Raymond, 1986: Data sensitivities of sea ice drift and ocean stress in North Atlantic high latitudes. J. Geophys. Res., 21, 11,657-11,676. Ross, 8., and J. E. Walsh, 1987: A comparison of simulated and observed fluctuations in summertime Arctic surface albedo. Submitted to Geophys. Res. l-17?89 Bruce Mast Contracts 105 Davenport House The final report for_account (1-5?37867) with the Shell Development Company has been sent in. The contract should be closed. Thank you. Karen Garrelts Atmospheric Sciences 101 Atmos Sci 3-2046