CBC_Ca ga_ry TasWEth?mRm July 4, 2018 PREPARED BY: OPINION RESEARCH Methodology • Survey questions were administered through the TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus between June 12 and 19, 2018. • TrendWatch Alberta is a monthly omnibus survey of 900 Albertans, ages 18 and over. The margin of error for a probability sample of 900 people is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (i.e., at a 95% confidence interval). • Surveys were conducted using our “True Random Sample, Hybrid Delivery (TRS-HD)” methodology. This approach involves live telephone interviewers initially contacting respondents at random, and giving the respondents the option of answering the survey over telephone at that time, answering over the telephone at a more convenient time, or receiving the link and answering the survey on-line. • The initial sample list contains approximately 50 percent landlines and 50 percent cellphones. Interviewers make up to five attempts to reach each phone number in the sample before classifying it as unreachable. • All surveys were conducted by qualified interviewers working out of Trend Research’s centralized CATI facility in Edmonton. Field supervisors were present at all times to ensure accurate interviewing and recording of responses. • The interviewing staff at Trend receives extensive training on the proper administration of interviews and are closely monitored by supervisors. A minimum of 10 percent of each interviewer’s work was unobtrusively monitored for quality control in accordance with the standards set out by the Canadian Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA). CBC Calgary – Trans Mountain Pipeline Purchase (July 4, 2018) 2 Approval of Purchase of Trans Mountain Pipeline (Total approve) Six in ten Albertans (60%) support the federal government’s decision to purchase the Trans Mountain Pipeline, including 29 per cent who strongly support the deal and 31 per cent who somewhat support it. A little over one-third (36%) of Albertans oppose the decision, and four per cent are unsure. Support for the purchase is higher in Edmonton (68%) than it is in Calgary (54%) or the rest of Alberta (56%). Support is consistent across other subgroups examined. Province Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta 29% 26% 28% 34% 25% Strongly approve 14% 31% Somewhat approve 4% (60%) 4% (54%) 3% (68%) 26% 4% (56%) Strongly disapprove Not sure 17% 25% 14% 34% 31% 22% 13% Somewhat disapprove 15% At the end of May, it was announced that the Canadian government would purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline and related infrastructure from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion, and the Alberta government would commit up to $2 billion to cover any cost overruns due to unforeseen circumstances. Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of this decision? CBC Calgary – Trans Mountain Pipeline Purchase (July 4, 2018) 3 Expected Completion Date for Trans Mountain Expansion 2% Province Most Albertans (60%) believe the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will be built, but after the scheduled completion date of 2020. One in five Albertans (19%) think it will be finished on schedule (17%) or ahead of schedule (2%). Just over one in ten (12%) think it will never be finished. Those who strongly disapprove of the federal government’s decision to purchase the pipeline are particularly likely be believe it will never be finished (38%). 60% 17% 12% 8% 2% Calgary 19% 60% 12% 7% 2% Edmonton 67% 15% 10% 6% 3% Rest of Alberta 55% 18% Before 2020 On schedule in 2020 15% After 2020 Never 10% Not sure Kinder Morgan – the company behind expanding the Trans Mountain pipeline –planned to finish construction by 2020. Which statement is closest to your own point of view. CBC Calgary – Trans Mountain Pipeline Purchase (July 4, 2018) 4 Moving to another topic.… C2. At the end of May, it was announced that the Canadian government would purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline and related infrastructure from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion, and the Alberta government would commit up to $2 billion to cover any cost overruns due to unforeseen circumstances. Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of this decision? 1 – Strongly approve 2 – Somewhat approve 3 – Somewhat disapprove 4 – Strongly disapprove 9 – Don’t know / not sure C3. Kinder Morgan – the company behind expanding the Trans Mountain pipeline –planned to finish construction by 2020. Which statement is closest to your own point of view. READ. 1 – It will be finished before 2020 2 – It will be finished on schedule in 2020 3 – It will be finished, but after 2020 4 – It will never be finished 9 – Don’t know / no answer TrendWatch Alberta 2018-06 1 TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus (June 2018) CBC Calgary 1 of 5 QC2. At the end of May, it was announced that the Canadian government would purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline and related infrastructure from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion, and the Alberta government would commit up to $2 billion to cover any cost overruns due to unforeseen circumstances. Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of this decision? Location (Q.C) Gender (Q.A) Age (Q.B) Education (Q.D3) Coll. / Some Total Calgary Edmonton Other Male Female 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ HS or less Uni. Univ. Post Grad B C D E F G H I J K L M N CQC2 Weighted Total: 900 300 286 314 450 450 96 308 324 172 171 368 220 129 Strongly approve 257 79 98 79 135 121 23 85 93 55 55 94 67 37 29% 26% 34% 25% 30% 27% 24% 28% 29% 32% 32% 25% 30% 28% c bd c Somewhat approve 279 84 96 99 142 137 32 102 93 52 42 117 71 46 31% 28% 34% 31% 32% 31% 33% 33% 29% 30% 24% 32% 32% 35% n k Somewhat disapprove 130 50 40 40 59 72 20 46 43 22 19 55 33 23 14% 17% 14% 13% 13% 16% 21% 15% 13% 13% 11% 15% 15% 17% Strongly disapprove 199 22% Don’t know / not sure 35 4% Strongly/somewhat approve (NETS) 536 60% Strongly/somewhat disapprove (NETS) 329 37% Significance Testing Applied: 95% (A-Z) 74 25% C 13 4% 42 15% BD 10 3% 83 26% C 13 4% 163 54% C 124 41% C 194 68% BD 82 29% BD 178 57% C 123 39% C 104 23% 95 21% 17 18% 61 20% 82 25% 39 22% 87 24% 5 3% 48 28% mn 7 4% 10 2% F 277 62% 25 6% E 258 57% 5 5% 14 4% 12 4% 55 57% 187 61% 163 36% 166 37% 37 38% 107 35% 16 4% 40 18% k 9 4% 21 16% k 4 3% 186 58% 107 62% 96 56% 210 57% 138 63% 82 63% 125 39% 60 35% 67 39% 142 39% 73 33% 44 34% June 20, 2018 TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus (June 2018) CBC Calgary 2 of 5 QC2. At the end of May, it was announced that the Canadian government would purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline and related infrastructure from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion, and the Alberta government would commit up to $2 billion to cover any cost overruns due to unforeseen circumstances. Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of this decision? Employment (Q.D1) Sector (Q.D2) Children (Q.D5) Marital Status (Q.D4) Income (Q.D6) Total Full-time Part-time Unemp. Student Retired Public Private Yes No Single Married Other <$60K $60-$120 $120K+ B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P CQC2 Weighted Total: 900 520 98 78 27 170 255 613 259 640 172 580 141 231 304 231 Strongly approve 257 150 21 17 10 58 78 172 81 176 49 165 42 64 98 60 29% 29% 21% 22% 38% 34% 31% 28% 31% 27% 28% 28% 29% 28% 32% 26% f c Somewhat approve 279 165 25 25 11 52 78 189 75 203 55 177 44 59 97 75 31% 32% 25% 33% 40% 31% 31% 31% 29% 32% 32% 31% 31% 26% 32% 33% Somewhat disapprove 130 14% 78 15% 13 13% 12 16% 3 11% 22 13% 44 17% 85 14% 32 12% 98 15% 26 15% 83 14% 21 15% 39 17% 41 14% 37 16% Strongly disapprove 199 22% 0 0% 146 24% g 22 4% 31 18% 139 24% 27 19% 57 25% 60 20% 54 23% 3 11% 42 16% h 13 5% 138 22% 2 3% 10 4% 25 4% 7 2% 5 2% 43 55% 21 78% 157 61% 361 59% 156 60% 379 59% 16 3% k 343 59% 10 5% 536 60% 10 6% l 104 60% 8 6% Strongly/somewhat approve (NETS) 86 61% 329 37% 33 42% 3 11% 86 34% 230 38% 93 36% 236 37% 58 34% 222 38% 48 34% 124 54% o 97 42% o 195 64% n 101 33% n 136 59% Strongly/somewhat disapprove (NETS) 33 19% c 5 3% c 110 65% C 55 33% c 60 23% 35 4% 31 32% bf 8 8% bf 45 47% BF 44 45% f 21 27% Don’t know / not sure 109 21% c 18 3% c 316 61% C 186 36% Significance Testing Applied: 95% (A-Z) June 20, 2018 90 39% TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus (June 2018) CBC Calgary 3 of 5 QC2. At the end of May, it was announced that the Canadian government would purchase the Trans Mountain pipeline and related infrastructure from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion, and the Alberta government would commit up to $2 billion to cover any cost overruns due to unforeseen circumstances. Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of this decision? TMX (Q.C2) TMX Timing (Q.C3) Strongly SW Strongly Total approve SW approve disapprove disapprove Before 2020 On time After 2020 Never DK/NA D E F G H I J K L CQC2 Weighted Total: 900 257 279 130 199 20 155 542 112 70 Strongly approve 257 257 0 0 0 13 67 151 9 16 29% 100% 0% 0% 0% 65% 43% 28% 8% 23% EFG D D D JKL IK IJL IK Somewhat approve 279 0 279 0 0 3 53 201 7 16 31% 0% 100% 0% 0% 16% 34% 37% 6% 22% E DFG E E K Kl IJL jK Somewhat disapprove 130 0 0 130 0 2 15 88 18 8 14% 0% 0% 100% 0% 9% 10% 16% 16% 12% F F DEG F j i Strongly disapprove 199 0 0 0 199 2 12 91 76 18 22% 0% 0% 0% 100% 10% 8% 17% 68% 26% G G G DEF JKL IK IJL IK Don’t know / not sure 35 0 0 0 0 0 9 11 3 12 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 2% 3% 17% jL iL L IJK Strongly/somewhat approve (NETS) 536 257 279 0 0 16 120 352 16 31 60% 100% 100% 0% 0% 81% 77% 65% 14% 45% FG FG DE DE JKL IKL IJL IJK Strongly/somewhat disapprove (NETS) 329 0 0 130 199 4 27 179 94 26 37% 0% 0% 100% 100% 19% 17% 33% 83% 38% FG FG DE DE JKL IK IJL IK Significance Testing Applied: 95% (A-Z) June 20, 2018 TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus (June 2018) CBC Calgary 4 of 5 QC3. Kinder Morgan - the company behind expanding the Trans Mountain pipeline -planned to finish construction by 2020. Which statement is closest to your own point of view? Location (Q.C) Gender (Q.A) Age (Q.B) Total QC3 Weighted Total: It will be finished before 2020 900 20 2% Calgary B Edmonton C Other D Male E Female F 18-24 G 25-44 H 45-64 I 65+ J Education (Q.D3) Coll. / Some HS or less Uni. Univ. K L M Post Grad N 300 6 2% 286 6 2% 314 9 3% 450 13 3% 450 8 2% 96 1 1% 308 8 2% 324 8 3% 172 4 2% 171 3 2% 368 7 2% 220 9 4% 129 1 1% It will be finished on schedule in 2020 155 17% 58 19% 42 15% 56 18% 79 18% 76 17% 12 12% 36 16% 23 18% 179 60% 266 59% 220 60% 133 60% 84 65% 37 12% 53 12% 60 13% 25 15% 50 14% 23 10% 12 9% Don’t know / not sure 70 8% 20 7% 18 6% 31 10% 29 6% 41 9% 77 80% HIJ 4 4% hiJ 3 3% j 98 57% 112 12% 173 55% C 46 15% 277 61% It will never be finished 191 67% D 30 10% 37 21% h 84 49% GH 29 17% G 19 11% g 62 17% 542 60% 67 21% h 187 58% G 40 12% g 21 6% 34 20% It will be finished, but after 2020 40 13% ij 194 63% GJ 40 13% g 27 9% 11 7% 29 8% 19 9% 9 7% QC3. Kinder Morgan - the company behind expanding the Trans Mountain pipeline -planned to finish construction by 2020. Which statement is closest to your own point of view? Employment (Q.D1) Sector (Q.D2) Children (Q.D5) Marital Status (Q.D4) Income (Q.D6) Total Full-time Part-time Unemp. Student Retired Public Private Yes No Single Married Other <$60K $60-$120 $120K+ B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P QC3 Weighted Total: 900 520 98 78 27 170 255 613 259 640 172 580 141 231 304 231 It will be finished before 2020 20 15 1 1 0 4 6 15 8 13 3 15 2 8 4 6 2% 3% 1% 1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% 3% It will be finished on schedule in 2020 155 17% It will be finished, but after 2020 542 60% It will never be finished 112 12% Don’t know / not sure 70 8% 80 15% f 339 65% F 58 11% 18 19% 14 18% 5 18% 54 55% 45 58% 18 67% 12 13% 12 15% 2 7% 28 5% CF 12 13% B 6 8% 2 7% Significance Testing Applied: 95% (A-Z) 37 22% b 83 49% B 25 15% 48 19% 102 17% 35 14% 120 19% 29 17% 107 62% 91 16% m 352 61% 34 24% l 81 57% 156 61% 370 60% 165 64% 377 59% 22 9% 82 13% 34 13% 78 12% 19 11% 80 14% 20 12% B 23 9% 44 7% 17 7% 52 8% 13 8% 42 7% 38 17% 12 9% 135 59% p 30 13% 62 20% p 179 59% p 41 14% 31 13% o 159 69% no 23 10% 12 9% 19 8% 18 6% 11 5% June 20, 2018 TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus (June 2018) CBC Calgary 5 of 5 QC3. Kinder Morgan - the company behind expanding the Trans Mountain pipeline -planned to finish construction by 2020. Which statement is closest to your own point of view? TMX (Q.C2) TMX Timing (Q.C3) Strongly SW Strongly Total approve SW approve disapprove disapprove Before 2020 On time After 2020 Never DK/NA D E F G H I J K L QC3 Weighted Total: 900 257 279 130 199 20 155 542 112 70 It will be finished before 2020 20 13 3 2 2 20 0 0 0 0 2% 5% 1% 1% 1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% Eg D d It will be finished on schedule in 2020 155 67 53 15 12 0 155 0 0 0 17% 26% 19% 11% 6% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% eFG dG D DE JKL I I I It will be finished, but after 2020 542 151 201 88 91 0 0 542 0 0 60% 59% 72% 67% 46% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% EG DG G DEF J IKL J J It will never be finished 112 9 7 18 76 0 0 0 112 0 12% 4% 2% 13% 38% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% FG FG DEG DEF K K IJL K Don’t know / not sure 70 16 16 8 18 0 0 0 0 70 8% 6% 6% 6% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% L L L IJK Significance Testing Applied: 95% (A-Z) June 20, 2018