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July 5, 2018

PREPARED BY:

OPINION RESEARCH

Methodology
• Survey questions were administered through the TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus between June 12 and 19, 2018.
• TrendWatch Alberta is a monthly omnibus survey of 900 Albertans, ages 18 and over. The margin of error for a probability
sample of 900 people is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (i.e., at a 95% confidence interval).
• Surveys were conducted using our “True Random Sample, Hybrid Delivery (TRS-HD)” methodology. This approach involves live
telephone interviewers initially contacting respondents at random, and giving the respondents the option of answering the
survey over telephone at that time, answering over the telephone at a more convenient time, or receiving the link and
answering the survey on-line.
• The initial sample list contains approximately 50 percent landlines and 50 percent cellphones. Interviewers make up to five
attempts to reach each phone number in the sample before classifying it as unreachable.
• All surveys were conducted by qualified interviewers working out of Trend Research’s centralized CATI facility in Edmonton.
Field supervisors were present at all times to ensure accurate interviewing and recording of responses.
• The interviewing staff at Trend receives extensive training on the proper administration of interviews and are closely monitored
by supervisors. A minimum of 10 percent of each interviewer’s work was unobtrusively monitored for quality control in
accordance with the standards set out by the Canadian Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA).

CBC Calgary – Leader Responsible for Pushing TMX

2

 Leader Most Responsible for Pushing TMX Ahead
When asked who they think is most responsible for
pushing the Trans Mountain pipeline ahead, four in
ten Albertans (42%) name Premier Notley. Just over
one in four (27%) credit Primer Minister Justin
Trudeau, and one in eight (13%) credit UCP leader
Jason Kenney. Just under one in five (18%) are
unsure.
Edmontonians are more likely to credit Notley (49%)
than Calgarians (43%) or those in the Rest of Alberta
(36%). There are little regional variation among those
who credit Trudeau or Kenney for the pipeline deal.
Those most likely to see Notley as most responsible
include:
• Those who strongly approve of the federal
government’s purchase of Trans Mountain
(51%), and
• Seniors (49%).

Province

42%

27%

13%

18%

Calgary

43%

26%

14%

17%

1%

Edmonton

49%

Rest of Alberta

36%

Rachel
Notley

25%

28%

Justin
Trudeau

Jason
Kenney

11%

14%

14%

21%

Other

Not
sure

Which political leader do you think is most responsible for pushing the Trans Mountain pipeline
ahead? Is it …

CBC Calgary – Leader Responsible for Pushing TMX

3

 C4.

Which political leader do you think is most responsible for pushing the Trans Mountain pipeline ahead? Is
it … READ AND RANDOMIZE CODES 1 TO 3
1 – Rachel Notley
2 – Jason Kenney
3 – Justin Trudeau, or
4 – Someone else (please specify who) _________________
9 – Don’t know / no answer

TrendWatch Alberta 2018-06

1

 TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus (June 2018)

CBC Calgary

1 of 2

QC4. Which political leader do you think is most responsible for pushing the Trans Mountain pipeline ahead? Is it...
Location (Q.C)
Gender (Q.A)
Total
QC4
Weighted Total:
Rachel Notley

Calgary
B

900
381
42%

300
129
43%

Jason Kenney

117
13%

Justin Trudeau

Edmonton
C

Other
D

41
14%

286
140
49%
D
31
11%

314
112
36%
C
45
14%

239
27%

77
26%

72
25%

89
28%

Someone else (please specify who)

4
0%

1
0%

2
1%

1
0%

Don’t know / not sure

159
18%

52
17%

40
14%
d

67
21%
c

Male
E

Age (Q.B)

Female
F

450
187
41%

450
195
43%

70
16%
f
114
25%

47
10%
e
124
28%

4
1%
f
75
17%

0
0%
e
84
19%

18-24
G

25-44
H

45-64
I

96
23
23%
HIJ
19
20%
hj
28
29%

308
134
43%
G
31
10%
g
85
28%

324
141
44%
G
48
15%

0
0%
27
28%
hiJ

65+
J

Education (Q.D3)
Coll. / Some
HS or less
Uni.
Univ.
K
L
M
171
63
37%
mn
26
15%

80
25%

172
84
49%
G
19
11%
g
45
26%

2
1%

1
0%

57
18%
g

53
16%
g

Post Grad
N

220
105
48%
kl
19
9%
l
64
29%

129
66
51%
kl
14
11%

43
25%

368
143
39%
mn
59
16%
m
89
24%

1
1%

1
1%

1
0%

1
0%

1
1%

23
13%
G

38
22%
mN

75
21%
mN

31
14%
kl

11
8%
KL

37
29%

QC4. Which political leader do you think is most responsible for pushing the Trans Mountain pipeline ahead? Is it...
Employment (Q.D1)
Sector (Q.D2)
Children (Q.D5)
Marital Status (Q.D4)
Income (Q.D6)
Total Full-time Part-time
Unemp.
Student
Retired
Public
Private
Yes
No
Single Married
Other
<$60K $60-$120 $120K+
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
QC4
Weighted Total:
900
520
98
78
27
170
255
613
259
640
172
580
141
231
304
231
Rachel Notley
381
220
37
28
6
86
117
253
107
275
57
257
66
100
124
117
42%
42%
38%
36%
22%
51%
46%
41%
41%
43%
33%
44%
47%
43%
41%
51%
f
f
cd
Lm
K
k
p
o
Jason Kenney
117
70
9
15
5
18
26
89
26
91
25
74
19
29
40
26
13%
13%
10%
19%
17%
10%
10%
14%
10%
14%
14%
13%
14%
13%
13%
11%
Justin Trudeau

239
27%

140
27%

26
27%

18
23%

7
25%

47
28%

Someone else (please specify who) 4
0%

4
1%

0
0%

0
0%

0
0%

Don’t know / not sure

86
17%
c

25
25%
bF

17
22%
f

10
36%

159
18%

Significance Testing Applied: 95% (A-Z)

150
25%
g
3
0%

76
29%

161
25%

46
27%

155
27%

38
27%

0
0%

79
31%
h
1
0%

1
0%

3
0%

0
0%

4
1%

0
0%

19
11%
Cd

32
12%
h

118
19%
g

49
19%

110
17%

45
26%
LM

92
16%
K

18
13%
K

71
31%
p
0
0%

85
28%
2
1%

51
22%
n
2
1%

30
13%

53
17%

36
16%

June 20, 2018

 TrendWatch Alberta Omnibus (June 2018)

CBC Calgary

2 of 2

QC4. Which political leader do you think is most responsible for pushing the Trans Mountain pipeline ahead? Is it...
TMX (Q.C2)
TMX Timing (Q.C3)
Strongly
SW
Strongly
Total
approve SW approve
disapprove
disapprove Before 2020
On time
After 2020
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
QC4
Weighted Total:
900
257
279
130
199
20
155
542
112
Rachel Notley
381
130
126
62
55
10
70
243
35
42%
51%
45%
48%
28%
48%
45%
45%
31%
G
G
G
DEF
k
K
iJ
Jason Kenney
117
25
29
16
45
2
18
67
21
13%
10%
10%
12%
23%
9%
12%
12%
18%
G
G
g
DEf
Justin Trudeau
239
82
74
29
49
8
46
140
30
27%
32%
27%
22%
24%
38%
29%
26%
27%

Never
K

DK/NA
L
70
23
33%
9
13%
14
21%

Someone else (please specify who)

4
0%

1
0%

2
1%

0
0%

1
1%

0
0%

0
0%

3
1%

1
1%

0
0%

Don’t know / not sure

159
18%

19
7%
EFG

49
17%
D

23
18%
D

49
25%
D

1
5%

21
14%
L

88
16%
L

25
22%

23
34%
IJ

Significance Testing Applied: 95% (A-Z)

June 20, 2018