Civil Beat Poll 1 Representative Sample: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (871, Margin of Error +/- 3.3 percentage points) Fielded, July 19 – 21, 2018 If you vote in the Democratic primary, which candidate are you most likely to support for Lieutentant Governor—Will Espero; Bernard Carvalho Jr.; Kim Coco Iwamoto; Josh Green; or Jill Tokuda? [Name order rotated] Green 31% Tokuda 17% Carvalho 13% Iwamoto 10% Espero 5% Unsure 26% Total 100% CROSSTABS Male Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total 30% 20% 16% 9% 4% 21% 100% Female 31% 15% 10% 10% 5% 30% 100% 50 or Under 50 older 23% 34% 16% 18% 11% 13% 8% 10% 2% 6% 40% 19% 100% 100% Civil Beat Poll 2 Representative Sample: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (871, Margin of Error +/- 3.3 percentage points) Fielded, July 19 – 21, 2018 Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed 38% 28% 33% 32% 28% 8% 23% 16% 26% 16% 11% 22% 12% 9% 12% 6% 26% 7% 11% 15% 8% 10% 3% 14% 5% 35% 13% 3% 4% 18% 3% 1% 26% 19% 24% 14% 37% 47% 36% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative 32% 31% 27% 21% 22% 9% 6% 13% 18% 13% 9% 7% 2% 4% 20% 26% 20% 19% 100% 100% 100% Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total Democrat Republican Independent 31% 32% 27% 19% 16% 13% 9% 16% 19% 11% 2% 8% 4% 10% 6% 26% 24% 26% 100% 100% 100% Civil Beat Poll Representative Sample: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (871, Margin of Error +/- 3.3 percentage points) Fielded, July 19 – 21, 2018 No college Degree 32% 18% 14% 8% 6% 23% 100% Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total College Degree 31% 18% 10% 12% 3% 26% 100% Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total Less than $50,000 - More than $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 30% 29% 34% 15% 16% 22% 5% 16% 8% 12% 10% 12% 3% 5% 4% 35% 24% 21% 100% 100% 100% 3 Civil Beat Poll Representative Sample: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (871, Margin of Error +/- 3.3 percentage points) Fielded, July 19 – 21, 2018 Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 27% 27% 54% 24% 32% 17% 24% 16% 8% 20% 12% 15% 6% 14% 26% 11% 6% 8% 12% 7% 6% 7% 1% 3% 6% 28% 21% 15% 40% 10% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Who did you support more to be the Democratic Party's nominee for president during the 2016 primaries – Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? Green Tokuda Carvalho Iwamoto Espero Unsure Total Clinton Sanders 30% 35% 22% 10% 12% 13% 12% 7% 4% 6% 21% 28% 100% 100% 4 Civil Beat Poll 5 Representative Sample: Likely Democratic Primary Voters Statewide (871, Margin of Error +/- 3.3 percentage points) Fielded, July 19 – 21, 2018 About the Poll Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 1,090 likely primary voters statewide, including 871 likely Democratic Party primary voters (403 in the First Congressional District and 468 in the Second Congressional District), and 219 likely Republican Party primary voters. Calls were made from July 19 – 21, 2018, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling). Cell phones were contacted by live call-agents who obtained consent and then patched consenting participants through to the same recorded survey as landline respondents. The sample consisted of 70% landlines and 30% cellphones. Results were balanced for gender, age, ancestry/ethnicity/race, county and Congressional District of residence, and education level. The margin of error for the full statewide sample of likely primary voters is +/- 3.0 percentage points, for likely Democratic primary voters it is +/- 3.3 percentage points (First Congressional District +/- 4.9 percentage points and Second Congressional District +/- 4.5 percentage points), and for likely Republican primary voters it is +/- 6.6 percentage points. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates and design effect (the effect of weighting results based on demographics) are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results. The adjusted margins of error, accounting for the design effects are: full statewide sample of likely primary voters +/- 4.4 percentage points, likely Democratic primary voters +/- 4.8 percentage points (First Congressional District +/- 7.3 percentage points and Second Congressional District +/- 6.2 percentage points), and likely Republican primary voters +/- 10.7 percentage points. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of the corresponding topline result. Some columns may sum to totals slightly higher or lower than 100% due to rounding. The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with Merriman River Group, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and communications.