TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: CHRIS WILSON, ASHLEE RICH STEPHENSON SUBJECT: ROSENDALE LEADS IN RACE FOR U.S. SENATE DATE: AUGUST 24, 2018 The following memorandum, prepared on behalf of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, highlights key findings from a statewide survey conducted by WPA Intelligence. Interviews were collected from August 20-22, 2018 among n=600 likely voters in Montana. The margin of error is ±4.0%. President Trump Job Approval A majority of Montana voters (54%) approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President. Illegal Immigration Top Concern A quarter of likely voters in Montana (24%) cite illegal immigration as the single most important issue they would like to see a candidate for the U.S. Senate address. This is followed by health care (16%) and the economy (11%). The remainder of top concerns among Montanans are in the single digits. 1 U.S. Senate Candidate Favorability Measures Forty-four percent (44%) of likely Montana voters have a favorable impression of Matt Rosendale, while forty-six percent (46%) have an unfavorable opinion of him. Forty-nine percent (49%) of likely Montana voters have a favorable impression of Jon Tester, while forty-six percent (46%) have an unfavorable opinion of him. U.S. Senate Ballot Matt Rosendale currently has a two-point lead in the race for U.S. Senate in Montana with 5% of voters undecided. Research Design WPA Intelligence conducted a study of likely voters in Montana. WPAi selected a random sample of likely voters from the Montana voter file using Proportionate Probability Sampling (PPS). The sample for this survey was stratified based on geography, age, and gender. This methodology allows us to avoid post-survey “weighting” which can reduce the reliability of survey results. WPAi conducted n=600 live telephone interviews (38% cell phone) on August 20-22, 2018. The margin of error is ±4.0% in 95 out of 100 cases. 2 About WPAi Since 1998, WPAi has been a leading provider of political polling for campaigns from President to Governor and U.S. Senate to Mayor and City Council in all 50 states and several foreign countries. In the 2015-2016 election cycle, 87% of WPAi clients won. WPAi clients' win ratio has exceeded the standard by double digits for four straight political cycles. WPAi has been nationally recognized for providing cutting edge research to help our clients win. The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a “Pollie” to WPAi for our Predictive Analytics and Adaptive Sampling techniques, and Campaigns and Elections magazine awarded WPAi with a “Reed Award” for developing an “optimized field program” in 2018. These awards highlight WPAi’s advanced survey research and data science methodology, allowing us to buck national polling trends and deliver industry-leading results for our clients. In addition to our political and policy research, WPAi has conducted market research for more than 120 United States Fortune 500 corporations, donor research for more than 250 of the largest and most successful not-for-profit organizations around the country, and alumni research for dozens of colleges and universities. ### 3