(7MetroNewsm Dominion Post. AMERICA The MetroNews Dominion Post West Virginia Poll The West Virginia Poll is a non-partisan survey of public opinion conducted continuously since January 21, 1980 and reported by media outlets. For more than 30 years, The West Virginia Poll has been the source of public opinion about current issues, political races, and pop culture. Methodology: • August 16-26, 2018 • n=404 Completed interviews • Respondents screened and qualified as likely voters • All 55 counties are included in the sampling frame • Confidence interval +/- 4.9 percentage points • Data Collection – A hybrid methodology More Likely Voters in West Virginia Approve of Donald Trump’s Job Performance Than in 2017 2018 APPROVE NOT SURE 60% 7% 41% Nationally 2017 APPROVE 48% 36% Nationally DISAPPROVE 33% 53% Nationally NOT SURE DISAPPROVE 13% 39% 57% Nationally Q: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the job the following public figures are doing -- Donald Trump as president. National data from fivethirtyeight poll aggregation as of 8/29/18 Trump’s Most Loyal Supporters Are Very Engaged in the 2018 Election General Election 2018 APPROVE NOT SURE DISAPPROVE 60% 7% 33% 41% Nationally 2017 53% Nationally APPROVE NOT SURE 48% 13% 36% Nationally DISAPPROVE 25% of West Virginians are both very engaged with this years election and very approving of President Trump 39% 57% Nationally Q: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the job the following public figures are doing -- Donald Trump as president. National data from fivethirtyeight poll aggregation as of 8/29/18 One Year After Switching Parties, Jim Justice’s Job Approval Ratings Have Improved – From 34% in 2017 to 43% in 2018 2018 2017 APPROVE NOT SURE DISAPPROVE 43% 20% 37% APPROVE 34% NOT SURE DISAPPROVE 22% Q: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the job the following public figures are doing – Jim Justice as West Virginia Governor 44% Shelley Moore-Capito’s Approval Ratings Are Up 9 Percentage Points from 2017 2018 NOT SURE APPROVE 47% DISAPPROVE 25% 28% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Approve 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the job the following public figures are doing – Shelley Moore-Capito as US senator 2017 Disapprove 2018 Joe Manchin’s Job Approval Ratings Have Decreased and His Disapprovals Are at a 5-Year High 2018 APPROVE NOT SURE 43% 18% DISAPPROVE 39% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Approve 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the job the following public figures are doing – Joe Manchin as US senator 2017 Disapprove 2018 Only About One Third of Likely Voters Approve of Patrick Morrisey’s Job Performance and Another Third Are Unsure APPROVE 31% NOT SURE DISAPPROVE 33% 36% Those “Not Sure” about Morrisey are less interested in this years election than those who have already formed opinions. Q: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the job the following public figures are doing – Patrick Morrisey as West Virginia attorney general In a Generic Ballot, West Virginia’s Likely Voters Are More Likely to Prefer a Republican Congress 47% 32% 21% A Democrat-controlled U.S. Congress 49% Nationally Not sure A Republican-controlled U.S. Congress 43% Nationally Q: And thinking about the 2018 elections, what is your preference for the outcome of this year’s congressional elections – a Republican party-controlled U.S. Congress, or a Democratic party-controlled U.S. Congress (National Data from NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey July 2018) Party Preference for Control of the West Virginia Legislature Also Significantly Favors Republicans 45% 34% 22% A Democrat-controlled WV Legislature Not sure A Republican-controlled WV Legislature Q: Thinking about the West Virginia Legislature, what is your preference for the outcome of this year’s state house and senate elections – [ROTATE] a Republican party-controlled West Virginia Legislature, or a Democratic party-controlled West Virginia Legislature? Manchin Leads Morrisey by Eight Percentage Points at This Stage of the Race JOE MANCHIN 46% NOT SURE 16% PATRICK MORRISEY 38% However, Morrisey voters tend to be more interested and engaged in this year’s election than Manchin voters - which could impact voter turn-out. Q: As you may or may not know next year there will be an election for the United States Senate from West Virginia. The candidates are Joe Manchin, the Democratic party candidate, and Patrick Morrisey the Republican party candidate. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? If Don Blankenship Had Been on the Ballot, Manchin Out Polls Morrisey by 11 Percentage Points DON BLANKENSHIP JOE MANCHIN NOT SURE 45% 13% PATRICK MORRISEY 8% 34% Nearly 12% of Morrisey voters would have switched to Blankenship if the West Virginia Supreme Court had ruled in his favor. Q: Now, assuming the candidates are Joe Manchin, the Democratic party candidate, Patrick Morrisey the Republican party candidate, and Don Blankenship, the Constitution party candidate. If the election were held today and those were the candidates, for whom would you vote?