4? minim: MLAIN MANITQBA RESEARCH INC. METHODOLOGY FOR MORE INFORMATION: SCOTT MACKAY MARY AGNES WELCH PRESIDENT SENIOR RESEARCHER 211 – 10 Fort St. Winnipeg, MB R3C 1C4 (204) 926-6565 Cell: (204) 955-9777 Scott@probe-research.com FB: www.facebook.com/proberesearch Twitter: @proberesearch www.probe-research.com 211 – 10 Fort St. Winnipeg, MB R3C 1C4 (204) 470-8862 maryagnes@probe-research.com FB: www.facebook.com/proberesearch Twitter: @proberesearch www.probe-research.com  This survey of 600 Winnipeg adults was conducted online between August 27th and 31st, 2018. The survey questionnaire was developed by Probe Research in consultation with representatives of CBC Manitoba.  Respondents were recruited using the Probe Research panel as well as that of a nationally respected general population panel provider.  A city-wide probability sample of 600 would mean a margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points. The Winnipeg sample is non-probability, derived as it is from research panels.  Minor statistical weighting was applied to ensure the survey sample is broadly representative of the actual Winnipeg population for age and gender.  Data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software. KEY TAKEAWAYS • Winnipeggers are very aware of the debate over Portage & Main. Nearly nine in 10 are familiar with the issue and more than one-half have been talking about it lately with family and friends. Even so, threequarters are fed up with the debate and only one-third see Portage & Main as an issue genuinely important to the fate of the city. • Winnipeggers are opposed two to one to opening Portage & Main to pedestrians. After a slow and steady rise over the last two decades, the proportion of those who favour opening the intersection has dropped nine points in two years. Support is now at 1997 levels. • There is virtually no demographic that supports opening the intersection. Young adults (those aged 1834) are slightly more likely to favour #TeamOpen, but even a majority of those would vote against removing the barricades. Similarly, committed downtowners – those who tend to live, work or play downtown – are more likely to vote for the famed intersection to remain closed. • In advance of next month’s referendum, views on Portage & Main are hardening. Nearly one-half are strongly opposed to opening, and three-quarters of Winnipeggers say there’s little chance they’ll change their mind before election day. • The fear of traffic delays is driving opposition to opening. More than one-half say traffic slowdowns through the intersection is among their top reasons for opposing #TeamOpen. Indeed, these results highlight Winnipeg’s enduring preference for car infrastructure. Two-thirds say vehicular traffic flow through the downtown is more important than pedestrian amenities. (Cost and pedestrians safety are also drivers of the “no” vote.) • Mayor Brian Bowman’s approval rating has steadily eroded since his 2014 victory, though he is still leading his main rival for mayor, Jenny Motkaluk. A significant number of voters – 57 per cent – are undecided two months from election day. PO 8? no BE STRONG FAMILIARITY WITH PORTAGE & MAIN DEBATE QPM1a “The intersection of Portage & Main in downtown Winnipeg has been closed to pedestrians for almost 40 years. There has been ongoing discussion about reopening the corner to pedestrians. Before today, how familiar were you with this discussion?” (n=600) Base: All respondents Just heard of it, don't know much, 10% Familiar, 28% Never heard of it until now, 1% Very familiar heard lots about it, 60% PORTAGE & MAIN IS A HOT TOPIC QPM7. “Now, please read the statements below and tell us whether you agree or disagree with each one. Even if you feel rather neutral about some of these, please indicate which way you are leaning.” (Randomized) (n=600) Strongly agree I'm tired of hearing about Portage & Main. I've been talking with friends and family about Portage & Main lately. Base: All respondents Moderately agree 41% 15% 39% Moderately disagree Strongly disagree 35% 17% 19% 27% 6% STRONG PERSONAL ENGAGEMENT WITH THE ISSUE QPM8. “How much do you personally care about this issue of whether Portage & Main should be re-opened to pedestrians?“ (n=600) 28% 25% 20% 14% 12% 1 - Couldn't care less Base: All respondents 2 3 4 5 - Care a great deal FEW SEE PORTAGE & MAIN OPENING AS KEY TO CITY’S FUTURE QPM9. “And how important do you think this issue is for the future of the City of Winnipeg?“ (n=600) 27% 22% 20% 19% 11% 1 - Doesn't matter at all Base: All respondents 2 3 4 5 - Critical issue for the city OZ >20 25.2 mm-0_umz_zm SIGNIFICANT OPPOSITION TO OPENING PORTAGE & MAIN QPM1b. “All things considered, do you support or oppose re-opening the corner to pedestrians?” (n=600) 67% 19% Moderately 33% 17% Strongly 48% 16% Support Oppose Most likely to support opening Portage & Main are… Base: All respondents █ Younger Winnipeggers (42% support among those 18-34 vs. 28% support among 55+). █ Downtowners – those who live, work or play frequently downtown (48% vs. 22% among those who are not downtowners). SUPPORT FOR RE-OPENING DROPS TO ALL-TIME LOW - 1997 TO 2018 QPM1b “All things considered, do you support or oppose re-opening the corner to pedestrians?” (n=600) 39% 40% 42% 36% 33% 12% 17% 23% 15% 17% Strongly Support 28% 21% 1997 Base: All respondents 22% 19% 2001 2006 Moderately Support 2016 16% 2018 GRIDLOCK IS TOP REASON NOT TO OPEN PORTAGE & MAIN QPM2. “There are several arguments against opening Portage and Main to pedestrians. Setting aside whether you personally are for or against opening the intersection, please consider the following arguments and choose which ones you see as the best reasons for keeping Portage and Main closed to pedestrians. Please rank your first and second choice from the list.” (n=600) 28% Will slow down traffic through the intersection 54% 21% Costs too much 37% 23% Will be unsafe for pedestrians 36% 7% Won’t do anything for downtown revitalization There’s no point in opening it - leave it alone Bad for businesses in Winnipeg Square 23% 6% 14% 6% 11% % Ranked #1 % Ranked in Top 2 No one will walk across anyway 2% 5% Base: All respondents Really can't pick any of these 7% ACCESSIBILITY, SAFETY ARE TOP REASONS TO OPEN PORTAGE & MAIN QPM3. There are several arguments in favour of opening Portage and Main to pedestrians. Setting aside whether you personally are for or against opening the intersection, please consider the following arguments and choose which ones you see as the best reasons for opening Portage and Main to pedestrians. Please rank your first and second choice from the list.” (n=600) 15% The underground walkway is not very accessible to people in wheelchairs 33% 22% We should design the downtown for pedestrians, not just cars 32% 16% The underground walkways and stairwells are dangerous 28% Walkways and barriers need repair anyway 5% Winnipeg’s best known intersection should be open 5% Should never have been closed in the first place 5% The intersection’s property owners want it open 15% 14% 9% % Ranked #1 % Ranked in Top 2 4% 9% Base: All respondents Really can’t pick any of these 23% MOST EXPECT TRAFFIC SNARLS WITH RE-OPENED INTERSECTION QPM5. “If Portage & Main is open to pedestrians, what kind of delay do you think the average motorist would face driving through the intersection during the afternoon rush hour?” (n=600) 37% 34% 22% 5% 2% None, no delay Base: All respondents Very minor delay Noticeable delay Significant delay Unsure Most likely to say traffic delays will be very minor are… Most likely to say traffic delays will be significant are… █ Downtowners (38% vs. 11% among those who do not live, work or play downtown). █ Those who aren’t downtowners (44% vs. 30% among those who live, work or play downtown frequently). █ Those who intend to vote “yes” to opening the intersection (54% vs. 9% among those planning to vote “no”). █ Those who intend to vote “no” to opening the intersection (50% vs. 8% among those planning to vote “yes”). REAL COST PREDICTIONS HARD TO PIN DOWN QPM6. “Based on what you may have seen, read or heard, what do you believe will be the true cost of opening Portage & Main to pedestrians?” (n=600) 10% $1M to $5M 19% $5M to $10M 13% $10M to $15M 10% $15M to $20M 8% $20M to $30M $30M to $40M More than $40M Base: All respondents Unsure 5% 8% 27% GENERAL VIEWS ON PORTAGE & MAIN QPM7. “Now, please read the statements below and tell us whether you agree or disagree with each one. Even if you feel rather neutral about some of these, please indicate which way you are leaning.” (Randomized) (n=600) Base: All respondents Strongly agree Portage & Main is an important Winnipeg landmark. I don't really like spending time downtown. Moderately agree 42% 27% It's important for visitors and tourists to be able to cross Portage & Main on foot. 16% I'm excited to walk across Portage & Main if and when it's open. 14% 17% Strongly disagree 42% 33% 17% Moderately disagree 25% 17% 12% 4% 23% 41% 53% 17% VIEWS ON THE IMPACT OF OPENING PORTAGE & MAIN QPM7. “Now, please read the statements below and tell us whether you agree or disagree with each one. Even if you feel rather neutral about some of these, please indicate which way you are leaning.” (Randomized) (n=600) Base: All respondents Strongly agree Opening Portage & Main will cost much more money than they say. Smooth traffic flow through the downtown is more important than pedestrian access. Those who want to open Portage & Main are out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Winnipeggers. Moderately agree Moderately disagree 51% 41% 35% 32% 25% 30% Strongly disagree 13% 5% 19% 15% 21% 14% Ocmmdoz Not sure/ can't say yet, 6% MAJORITY “NO” ON REFERENDUM QUESTION QPM12 “As part of the civic election this fall, there’s a referendum vote on opening Portage & Main with the following question: Do you support the opening of Portage & Main to pedestrian crossings? Yes, 28% No, 66% If the referendum were held tomorrow, how would you vote on this question?” (n=600) Most likely to vote “yes” are… Base: All respondents with an opinion including “leaners” █ Younger Winnipeggers (36% among those 18-34 vs. 25% among 35+). █ Post-secondary grads (29% vs. 17% among those with high school or less). █ Downtowners – those who live, work or play frequently downtown (45% vs. 17% among those who are not downtowners). MOST ARE DUG-IN ON PORTAGE & MAIN POSITIONS 44% 32% QPM14. “And, how likely are you to change your mind about Portage & Main between now and the civic election in October?” (n=600) 21% 3% No chance - my mind is made up Unlikely I’ll change my mind It’s possible - I’m open to arguments from both sides Could easily change my mind Most likely to say their minds are made up are… Base: Winnipeg adults █ Older adults (50% among those 55+ vs. 37% among those 18-34). █ Those who disapprove of Mayor Brian Bowman’s performance (57% vs. 35% among those who approve). VIEWS ON CURRENT AND FUTURE MAYOR MAYORAL VOTING INTENTIONS QB1. “As we mentioned, there will be a civic election here in Winnipeg this fall. If the civic election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates for mayor would you be most likely to vote for? (If you don’t know or won’t be voting, just indicate that.)” (n=600) 22% Brian Bowman 11% Jenny Motkaluk Chris Clacio 1% Tim Diack 1% Desmond Thomas 1% Doug Wilson 1% Don Woodstock 1% Umar Hayat 0% Venkat Rao Machiraju 0% Won’t be voting 6% Base: All respondents Don’t know/undecided 57% MAYOR’S JOB PERFORMANCE Fall 2015 Summer 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 - 2015 TO 2018 QB2. “Brian Bowman has been mayor of Winnipeg for almost four years. Thinking of his performance as mayor, would you say, overall, that you strongly approve of his performance, you moderately approve, you moderately disapprove or you strongly disapprove of Brian Bowman's performance as mayor?” (n=600) 62% 56% 51% 46% 26% 15% 16% 17% 15% 13% 8% 12% 10% 7% 6% 2% Strongly Approve Base: Winnipeg adults Moderately Approve Moderately Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Most likely to approve (strongly and moderately) of Mayor Bowman’s performance are… █ Post-secondary grads (55% approve vs. 37% among those with high school or less). █ Downtowners (55% vs. 46% among those who do not work, live or play downtown). PORTAGE & MAIN A KEY BALLOT QUESTION QPM11. “How will this issue of Portage & Main figure in your choice for mayor and councillor?“ (n=600) 36% 34% 13% 10% 7% Base: All respondents intending to vote in October 1 - Won't even cross my mind 2 3 4 5 - My most important consideration TOP CONCERNS FOR WINNIPEGGERS CRIME, ROADS ARE TOP CONCERNS 25% Repairing existing roads and bridges 64% 32% Reducing crime 63% - AIDED - 14% Lowering property taxes QP2. People are interested in many different issues in the city. What kinds of issues are you personally most interested in – the ones that matter to you most and that you’re talking about most with friends and family?” (n=600) Revitalizing the downtown Improving active transportation routes like bike and walking paths Increasing transit funding Improving recreation facilities Limiting urban sprawl Building new roads Base: All respondents Opening Portage & Main to pedestrians Expanding rapid transit 37% 4% 23% 5% 22% 5% 20% 2% 17% 5% 16% 2% 14% 4% 12% 3% 12% % Ranked #1 % Ranked in Top 3 MODEST SATISFACTION WITH WINNIPEG’S DIRECTION 55% 45% QP3. “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way things are going in Winnipeg? Generally speaking, are you…” (n=600) 51% 32% Somewhat Very 13% 4% Satisfied Dissatisfied Most likely to be dissatisfied are… Base: All respondents █ Older adults (49% among those 55+ vs. 37% among those 18-34). █ Those with high school or less (53% vs. 40% among post-secondary grads). █ Those who do not work, live or play downtown (57% vs. 37% among downtowners).