SUPRC/Boston Globe 9/19/2018 FINAL MA LIKELY VOTER 2018 STUDY Region: (N=500) n Worcester/West ------------------------------------------------- 120 Northeastern ----------------------------------------------------- 177 Suffolk --------------------------------------------------------------- 40 SE Mass/Cape--------------------------------------------------- 163 % 24.00 35.40 8.00 32.60 *********************************************************************************************************** Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for Suffolk University and I would like to get your opinions on some issues of the day in Massachusetts. Would you be willing to spend seven minutes answering some questions so that we can include your opinions? {IF YES PROCEED; IF NO, UNDECIDED, GO TO CLOSE} 1. 2. 3. SCREEN. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election for Governor and U.S. Senator this November – very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, not at all likely? (N=500) n % Very likely --------------------------------------------------------- 449 89.80 Somewhat likely --------------------------------------------------- 51 10.20 Gender (N=500) n Male ---------------------------------------------------------------- 242 Female ------------------------------------------------------------ 258 % 48.40 51.60 What is your age category? (N=500) n 18-25 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 29 26-35 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 65 36-45 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 95 46-55 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 98 56-65 Years ------------------------------------------------------ 111 66-75 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 69 Over 75 Years ----------------------------------------------------- 29 Refused ------------------------------------------------------------- 4 % 5.80 13.00 19.00 19.60 22.20 13.80 5.80 0.80 4. Are you currently registered as a Democrat, Republican, or Unenrolled/Independent? (N=500) n % Democrat --------------------------------------------------------- 177 35.40 Republican --------------------------------------------------------- 61 12.20 Unenrolled/Independent --------------------------------------- 256 51.20 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 5 1.00 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 5. For statistical purposes only, can you please tell me what your ethnic background / ancestry is? (N=500) n % White/Caucasian ------------------------------------------------ 399 79.80 Black/African-American ----------------------------------------- 41 8.20 American Indian / Alaska Native ------------------------------- 4 0.80 Asian ----------------------------------------------------------------- 22 4.40 Native Hawaiian / Other Pacific Islander --------------------- 2 0.40 Hispanic/Latino ---------------------------------------------------- 26 5.20 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 2 0.40 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 Massachusetts Likely Voters 1 of 6 Field 9/13 – 9/17 SUPRC/Boston Globe 6. 9/19/2018 Do you think Massachusetts is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track? (N=500) n % Right direction --------------------------------------------------- 340 68.00 Wrong track -------------------------------------------------------- 95 19.00 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 65 13.00 {FOR 6.1} 7A. Who would you say is most responsible for Massachusetts heading in the right direction? {RANDOMIZE} Governor Baker, President Trump, U.S. Congress, the Massachusetts Legislature, or the economy in general? (N=340) n % Governor Baker ------------------------------------------------- 138 40.59 President Trump -------------------------------------------------- 10 2.94 U.S. Congress ------------------------------------------------------ 6 1.76 Massachusetts Legislature ------------------------------------- 77 22.65 The economy in general ---------------------------------------- 81 23.82 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 28 8.24 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 {FOR 6.2} 7B. Who would you say is most responsible for Massachusetts heading on the wrong track? {RANDOMIZE} Governor Baker, President Trump, U.S. Congress, the Massachusetts Legislature, or the economy in general? (N=95) n % Governor Baker --------------------------------------------------- 17 17.89 President Trump -------------------------------------------------- 19 20.00 U.S. Congress ------------------------------------------------------ 7 7.37 Massachusetts Legislature ------------------------------------- 36 37.89 The economy in general ----------------------------------------- 3 3.16 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 9 9.47 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 4 4.21 {FOR 4.1 & 4.3} 8. Earlier you indicated that you were registered as (a Democrat / an Independent}. If Congressman Seth Moulton challenged Senator Ed Markey in the 2020 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ed Markey or Seth Moulton? Or would you not vote in the Democratic Primary? {EMBARGOED FOR FUTURE RELEASE} {RANDOMIZE Q9-11} 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? (N=500) n % Approve ----------------------------------------------------------- 108 21.60 Disapprove ------------------------------------------------------- 366 73.20 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 22 4.40 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Charlie Baker is doing as governor? (N=500) n % Approve ----------------------------------------------------------- 360 72.00 Disapprove --------------------------------------------------------- 89 17.80 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 51 10.20 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Massachusetts Likely Voters 2 of 6 Field 9/13 – 9/17 SUPRC/Boston Globe 9/19/2018 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Elizabeth Warren is doing as U.S. Senator? (N=500) n % Approve ----------------------------------------------------------- 287 57.40 Disapprove ------------------------------------------------------- 176 35.20 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 37 7.40 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 12. Do you think the House of Representatives should seriously consider impeaching President Trump? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 265 53.00 No------------------------------------------------------------------- 190 38.00 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 45 9.00 Great, I’m going to read you a list of individuals in politics and state organizations. For each, please tell me if your opinion of them is generally favorable or generally unfavorable. If you are undecided or if you have never heard of someone, just tell me that. First take Donald Trump. Would you say your opinion of Donald Trump is generally favorable or generally unfavorable? {Next name, “How about...” etc.} {RANDOMIZE 14-20} (N=500) NEVER HEARD FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE HOF/UNDECIDED 13. Donald Trump 0 0.00 109 21.80 363 72.60 28 5.60 14. Charlie Baker 3 0.60 367 73.40 85 17.00 45 9.00 15. Elizabeth Warren 6 1.20 284 56.80 176 35.20 34 6.80 16. Jay Gonzalez 190 38.00 107 21.40 44 8.80 159 31.80 17. Geoff Diehl 224 44.80 76 15.20 67 13.40 133 26.60 18. Shiva Ayyadurai 323 64.60 40 8.00 31 6.20 106 21.20 19. Seth Moulton 123 24.60 169 33.80 60 12.00 148 29.60 35 7.00 236 47.20 112 22.40 117 23.40 20. Ed Markey 21. This November, the candidates for Governor will be Republican Charlie Baker and Democrat Jay Gonzalez. At this point for whom will you vote or toward whom do you lean – Baker or Gonzalez? (N=500) n % Republican Charlie Baker ------------------------------------- 277 55.40 Democrat Jay Gonzalez --------------------------------------- 139 27.80 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 84 16.80 Massachusetts Likely Voters 3 of 6 Field 9/13 – 9/17 SUPRC/Boston Globe 9/19/2018 22. Do you view Charlie Baker as a “pro-Trump” Republican or an “anti-Trump” Republican? (N=500) n % Pro-Trump ---------------------------------------------------------- 59 11.80 Anti-Trump -------------------------------------------------------- 303 60.60 Neither --------------------------------------------------------------- 56 11.20 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 82 16.40 23. How would you describe traffic in Massachusetts compared to four years ago: much better, somewhat better, no different, somewhat worse, or much worse? (N=500) n % Much better ---------------------------------------------------------- 8 1.60 Somewhat better -------------------------------------------------- 54 10.80 No different ------------------------------------------------------- 129 25.80 Somewhat worse------------------------------------------------ 123 24.60 Much worse ------------------------------------------------------ 162 32.40 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 20 4.00 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 24. For U.S. Senate, there are three candidates on your ballot: Democrat Elizabeth Warren, Republican Geoff Diehl, and Independent Shiva Ayyadurai. At this point for whom will you vote or toward whom do you lean – Warren, Diehl, or Ayyadurai? (N=500) n % Democrat Elizabeth Warren ---------------------------------- 269 53.80 Republican Geoff Diehl ---------------------------------------- 122 24.40 Independent Shiva Ayyadurai --------------------------------- 30 6.00 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 78 15.60 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 {FOR 24.3} 25. Who would be your second choice – Warren or Diehl? (N=30) n Democrat Elizabeth Warren ------------------------------------ 10 Republican Geoff Diehl ------------------------------------------ 13 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 7 26. % 33.33 43.33 23.33 Overall, how important to you is the issue of sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace – very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important? (N=500) n % Very important --------------------------------------------------- 343 68.60 Somewhat important ------------------------------------------- 118 23.60 Not very important ------------------------------------------------ 25 5.00 Not at all important ----------------------------------------------- 11 2.20 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 Massachusetts Likely Voters 4 of 6 Field 9/13 – 9/17 SUPRC/Boston Globe 9/19/2018 There are three statewide ballot questions which will appear on the November ballot. 27. Question #1 would establish Patient to Nurse Limits. A YES VOTE would limit the number of patients that could be assigned to one registered nurse in hospitals and certain other health care facilities. A NO VOTE would make no change in current laws relative to patient-to-nurse limits. At this point, will you vote yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 259 51.80 No------------------------------------------------------------------- 165 33.00 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 75 15.00 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 28. Question #2 would establish a Commission on Limiting Election Spending and Corporate Rights. A YES VOTE would create a citizens commission to advance an amendment to the United States Constitution to limit the influence of money in elections and establish that corporations do not have the same rights as human beings. A NO VOTE would not create this commission. At this point, will you vote yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 358 71.60 No--------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 19.60 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 43 8.60 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 29. Question #3 is the Transgender Anti-Discrimination proposal. A YES VOTE would keep in place the current law, which prohibits discrimination on the basis of gender identity in places of public accommodation. A NO VOTE would repeal this provision of the public accommodation law. At this point, will you vote yes or no? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 366 73.20 No--------------------------------------------------------------------- 87 17.40 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 46 9.20 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 I’m going to read you the names of five current or former Democratic leaders from Massachusetts. For each, please tell me if you think that person should run for President in 2020? {RANDOMIZE 30-34} (N=500) Yes No Und 30. Congressman Seth Moulton {EMBARGOED FOR FUTURE RELEASE} 31. Senator Elizabeth Warren {EMBARGOED FOR FUTURE RELEASE} 32. Congressman Joseph P. Kennedy III {EMBARGOED FOR FUTURE RELEASE} 33. Former Governor Deval Patrick {EMBARGOED FOR FUTURE RELEASE} 34. Former U.S. Senator John Kerry {EMBARGOED FOR FUTURE RELEASE} THE FINAL TWO QUESTIONS WILL HELP US CLASSIFY YOUR ANSWERS WITH OTHERS TAKING THE SURVEY Massachusetts Likely Voters 5 of 6 Field 9/13 – 9/17 SUPRC/Boston Globe 35. 36. 9/19/2018 Do you currently have school-aged children? (N=500) n Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 130 No------------------------------------------------------------------- 366 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 4 % 26.00 73.20 0.80 Are there any members of your household who are union members? (N=500) n Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 133 No------------------------------------------------------------------- 366 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 1 % 26.60 73.20 0.20 [THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. HAVE A NICE DAY/EVENING.] Massachusetts Likely Voters 6 of 6 Field 9/13 – 9/17