THE DES MOINES REGISTER/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY 801 Iowa adults, including 555 likely voters in the 2018 general election Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points for all adults Margin of error: ± 4.2 percentage points for likely voters Study #2174 September 17-20, 2018 Weighted by age, sex, and congressional district Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Are you a resident of the state of Iowa? 100 - Yes No Not sure Continue Terminate and do not count toward any quota In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-16 Feb-15 Sep-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Feb-13 Sep-12 Feb-12 Feb-11 Sep-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Right direction Wrong track Not sure 34 55 11 40 29 32 36 21 25 29 23 23 23 22 30 37 40 30 32 30 31 35 41 43 36 49 60 56 51 71 65 60 65 68 70 68 60 51 54 64 58 63 61 58 50 49 53 12 10 11 13 8 10 11 12 9 7 10 10 12 6 6 10 7 8 7 9 8 11 What about here in Iowa? Do you think things in the state are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Oct-16 Feb-16 Feb-15 Sep-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Feb-13 Sep-12 Feb-12 Feb-11 Sep-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Right direction Wrong track Not sure 47 42 11 49 47 44 42 48 45 56 55 52 55 52 56 58 60 52 40 39 34 34 48 45 44 39 40 43 41 39 40 30 31 37 33 36 34 28 31 38 47 52 57 57 41 44 45 13 13 13 18 13 15 14 14 11 12 12 10 14 9 10 13 9 9 9 11 11 11 I’m going to mention some elected officials. For each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way each is handling his or her job. (Rotate list.) Kim Reynolds as governor Kim Reynolds as lieutenant governor Donald Trump as president of the United States Approve Disapprove Not Sure Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 Feb-12 46 38 17 47 51 46 44 39 33 30 24 24 15 20 19 30 32 46 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Jul-17 Feb-17 39 56 5 44 35 43 42 51 60 52 49 5 5 5 9 I'm going to mention the names of some people in the news. (Feb-17 and Dec-17: I'm going to mention the names of some people who are possible candidates for governor.) For each name I read, please tell me if your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know the person, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Among Iowa adults; n=801 Kim Reynolds, the current Republican governor running for election Kim Reynolds, governor Kim Reynolds, Republican governor Kim Reynolds, Republican lieutenant governor Net Favorable Net Very Unfavorable Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Very Not Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Sep-18 45 37 17 28 19 18 18 Jan-18 48 32 14 34 17 15 20 Dec-17 44 33 14 30 16 17 23 Feb-17 44 24 14 30 14 10 32 Fred Hubbell, businessman and Democrat running for governor Fred Hubbell, Democrat and retired business executive Sep-18 Dec-17 34 23 27 15 10 8 24 13 11 43 19 10 6 57 Barack Obama, former president of the United States Sep-18 58 38 29 29 15 24 3 Barack Obama, president of the United States Sep-12 Feb-12 54 46 43 51 30 19 24 27 14 20 29 31 3 3 Donald Trump, current president of the United States Sep-18 41 56 21 20 13 43 3 Donald Trump, president Jan-18 45 53 22 22 13 40 2 I'm going to mention the names of some people in the news. (Feb-17 and Dec-17: I'm going to mention the names of some people who are possible candidates for governor.) For each name I read, please tell me if your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know the person, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Among likely voters in the 2018 general election; n=555 Kim Reynolds, the current Republican governor running for election Net Favorable Net Very Unfavorable Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Very Not Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Sep-18 47 46 21 26 22 24 7 Jan-18 49 38 16 33 18 20 13 Dec-17 45 40 15 30 20 20 15 Fred Hubbell, businessman and Democrat running for governor Sep-18 42 27 13 29 15 12 30 Fred Hubbell, Democrat and retired business executive Dec-17 31 18 10 21 11 7 51 Barack Obama, former president of the United States Sep-18 58 40 32 26 13 27 2 Barack Obama, president of the United States Early Oct-14 44 54 20 24 16 38 2 Donald Trump, current president of the United States Sep-18 39 59 22 18 11 47 2 Donald Trump, president Jan-18 45 54 25 20 12 42 1 Kim Reynolds, governor Kim Reynolds, Republican governor How likely is it you will vote in the November general election for governor and other offices—will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote? (If Definitely vote, continue. If any other answer, skip to question on top two issues.) (Jan-18: How likely is it you will vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and other offices—will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote? Dec-17: Thinking about the general election for governor and state offices in November 2018, how likely is it you will vote—will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote?) Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 Definitely vote Probably vote Might or might not vote Probably not vote Refused/ Not sure 64 22 7 7 1 66 68 17 17 7 9 6 4 3 2 If the election for governor were held today and the candidates were [DEMOCRAT FRED HUBBELL / REPUBLICAN KIM REYNOLDS / LIBERTARIAN JAKE PORTER], for whom would you vote—[FRED HUBBELL/KIM REYNOLDS/JAKE PORTER] or for someone else? (Rotate candidate names.) (Ask only of those who do not name a first choice candidate:) Toward which candidate would you say you are leaning, or support the most? (Among likely voters in the 2018 general election; n=555.) Fred Hubbell Kim Reynolds Jake Porter Someone else Not sure Total 43 41 7 9 Would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to vote for another candidate? (Asked only of likely 2018 general election voters who selected a candidate listed in the gubernatorial horserace question, but based on all likely voters; MoE: ± 4.2 percentage points. MoE for Reynolds supporters: ± 6.4 percentage points. MoE for Hubbell supporters: ± 6.3 percentage points. ) Likely Voters n=555 59 30 2 9 Reynolds Supporters n=239 Hubbell Supporters n=245 69 28 3 n/a 66 32 2 n/a Mind is made up Could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate Not sure No first choice Do you recall, did you vote in the last election for governor in 2014 when the candidates were Terry Branstad and Jack Hatch? (If no, ask:) How regularly would you say you vote in contests for governor, which is a midterm election when the presidential race is not on the ballot: regularly, occasionally, rarely, or is this your first time? (Among likely voters in the 2018 general election; n=555.) 77 5 4 1 8 5 Voted in 2014 Did not vote in 2014, but regularly vote in midterms Did not vote in 2014, but occasionally vote in midterms Did not vote in 2014, and rarely vote in midterms Did not vote in 2014, and this is first time Not sure If an Iowa candidate supports President Trump, does that make you more likely or less likely to vote for the Iowa candidate, or would it make no difference? (Among likely voters in the 2018 general election; n=555.) 18 40 41 1 More likely Less likely No difference Not sure (Alternate whether Reynolds or Hubbell series comes first every other interview.) I am going to mention some criticisms people have offered about Kim Reynolds. Regardless of whether you support her, for each, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, a little problem, or if you do not think it’s true. (Read list. Rotate.) (Among likely voters in the 2018 general election; n=555.) She has not established her own agenda for the state of Iowa She has not addressed problems with privatizing Medicaid She has mismanaged the budget and short changed needed government services such as education and health care Big Problem Little Problem Don’t Think It’s True Not Sure 31 51 31 19 29 17 9 13 51 12 28 10 I am going to mention some criticisms people have offered about Fred Hubbell. Regardless of whether you support him, for each, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, a little problem, or if you do not think it’s true. (Read list. Rotate.) (Among likely voters in the 2018 general election; n=555.) He does not understand the needs of ordinary Iowans because of his enormous wealth He has withheld information about his taxes that could reveal conflicts of interest He shut down Younkers stores while enriching himself Big Problem Little Problem Don’t Think It’s True Not Sure 25 24 40 10 36 22 30 29 17 33 17 16 On a different topic now, based on what you know today, do you think Judge Brett Kavanaugh should or should not be confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court? 37 31 32 Should be confirmed Should not be confirmed Not sure Which of the following comes closer to your view of decision-making in the White House: (Read list. Do not rotate.) 17 24 16 36 7 I’m convinced everything is normal and safe I have some concerns about what is happening I have a lot of concerns about what is happening I’m convinced that what is happening is not normal and safe Not sure ABOUT THE POLL The Iowa Poll, conducted September 17-20 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older, including 555 likely voters in the 2018 general election for governor and other offices. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on the sample of 801 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error. Questions based on likely voters in the 2018 general election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.