This Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted Sept. 19-Oct. 5, 2018, among a sample of 1,087 registered voters in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, including 866 likely voters. A random sample of 10th district voters from voter registration files was contacted by mail to complete a survey by computer, mobile device or via automated phone interview. Results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS of Glen Mills, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details appended at the end.) Note: Questions 1, 3, 5-7, 10-15 not asked of automated phone respondents; sample size 839 likely voters. 1. How closely are you following the upcoming election for Congress in November? 10/5/18 VA-10 -------Closely------NET Very Somewhat 85 47 38 -----Not closely----NET Not so At all 15 12 3 2. Please rate the chances that you will vote in the election for Congress on November 6th: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? 10/5/18 VA-10 Certain to vote 89 Probably vote 8 Chances 50/50 1 Less than 50/50 1 Will not vote 1 No opinion * 3. (IF 50-50, PROBABLY, OR CERTAIN TO VOTE) Do you think you will (vote in person at your polling place on Election Day) or (vote before Election Day by absentee early voting)? 10/5/18 VA-10 Vote in person 85 Early absentee voting 12 No opinion 3 4. If the election were being held today, for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Jennifer Wexton, the Democrat) or (Barbara Comstock, the Republican)? Jennifer Barbara Wexton Comstock 10/5/18 LV 55 43 10/5/18 RV* 54 43 *Among 1,087 registered voters Another candidate * * No opinion 2 4 Compare to 2018 battleground congressional districts overall: Democratic Republican candidate candidate 10/5/18 LV 50 46 10/5/18 RV* 49 45 *Among 3,407 registered voters Another candidate * * No opinion 4 6 5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of [CANDIDATE]? Summary table 10/5/18 VA-10 Jennifer Wexton Barbara Comstock Favorable 44 40 Haven’t heard of them 5 * Unfavorable 32 47 No opinion 20 12 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 10/5/18 VA-10 -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 35 28 8 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 61 7 54 No opinion 4 7. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? 10/5/18 VA-10 ------ Positive -----NET Excellent Good 84 28 56 ------- Negative ------NET Not so good Poor 16 14 2 No opinion 0 8. Thinking about your family’s financial situation, do you feel as if you are getting ahead financially, have just enough money to maintain your standard of living, or are you falling behind financially? 10/5/18 VA-10 Getting ahead 43 Just enough to maintain 46 Falling behind 9 No opinion 2 9. Aside from the economy, do you think things in this country are headed in the (right direction) or (wrong direction)? 10/5/18 VA-10 Right direction 33 Wrong direction 60 No opinion 7 10. How important is each of these issues in your vote for Congress this year? Summary table 10/5/18 VA-10 a. The economy b. Gun violence c. Supreme Court & other judicial nominations d. Donald Trump e. Immigration f. The Mueller investigation g. Health care h. International trade ------Important-----NET Extremely Very 84 50 34 70 49 21 ----Less important---NET Somewhat Not so 16 13 3 29 16 13 No opinion * 1 85 78 79 63 64 52 23 14 27 13 20 20 10 9 15 3 10 5 1 2 * 55 82 72 39 52 31 16 31 41 42 17 27 14 13 23 28 4 5 4 * 1 11. Which of the following is the most important issue in your vote for Congress this year? (Only issues that a respondent said were “extremely” or “very” important included as options) Donald Trump The economy Supreme Court & other judicial nominations Health care Immigration The Mueller investigation Gun violence International trade Rated no issues as very important 10/5/18 VA-10 35 19 13 10 10 6 6 1 * 12. About how long have you lived in the town where you live now? 10/5/18 VA-10 Less than one year 3 1 to 5 years 11 6 to 10 years 14 11 to 20 years 33 More than 20 years 39 13. Do you favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in this country? 10/5/18 VA-10 Favor 64 Oppose 29 No opinion 6 14. Is violence by the MS-13 gang a major problem in Northern Virginia, a minor problem, or not a problem? 10/5/18 VA-10 Major 44 Minor 37 Not a problem 7 No opinion 11 15. Do you or anyone in your household work…? Yes No Not sure 15 84 1 20 79 1 1 99 1 1 99 1 Summary: HH member works in any of a-d 31 69 - Summary: HH member works for fed govt. or contractor a-b 30 70 - a. For the federal government b. For a federal government contractor c. In government affairs or lobbying d. For a political strategy or consulting firm Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as… 10/5/18 VA-10 A Democrat 32 A Republican 29 An independent 34 Something else 5 No op. 0 *** END *** This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. The poll is a random sample of registered voters in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as they appear in this document. Demographic questions are not shown; a breakdown of likely voter demographics is shown in the table below. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Registration-based sampling was conducted within Virginia’s 10th Congressional District using voter file provided by L2, stratified by past turnout and whether voters recently registered. Selected participants received letters in the mail with directions on how to log onto an online portal to take the survey online or; voters without internet access could take an automated survey interview by phone. The final sample included 1,053 interviews completed online (including cell phone/tablet) and 34 completed by automated phone. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics in the district, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. Base weights adjusted for the proportion of voters who turned out in 2016 and 2014 general elections, only 2016 or 2014, voters who recently registered and other voters. The sample of registered voters was weighted to match the sex and age makeup of voters in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District according to L2 Political’s database of registered voters. The sample was weighted by race/ethnicity, age and education of registered voters according to Post analysis of the Census Bureau American Community Survey and Current Population Survey. Validated turnout in recent elections was used to weight the sample by the proportion of registered voters who turned out in a Republican or Democratic primary since 2010; voters that were validated as voting in the 2016 general election were weighted to match the percentage of voters in Virginia’s 10th district who supported Clinton, Trump or an other candidate. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.5 for the likely voters ample. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Table of likely voter demographics: Male Female Age 18-29 Age 30-39 Age 40-49 Likely voters 48% 52% 13% 12% 19% Age 50-64 Age 65+ 33% 23% White Nonwhite African American Hispanic Other 74% 26% 7% 7% 13% No four-year college degree High school or less Some college College graduate Bachelor’s degree Post-grad degree 39% 15% 24% 61% 30% 31%