An Rolnn nthlocnto, Pleantilu onus Rloltuis Altit'ill Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government Request Reference Number: AIE 2018 015 08 October 2018 Dear Right to Know I refer to the request which you made under the European Communities (Access to Information on the Environment) Regulations 2007 to 2014 (SJ. No. 133 of 2007, SJ. No. 662 of 2011 and SJ. No. 615 of 2014) (hereafter referred to as the AIE Regulations) for access to records held by this Department relating to 1. Any guidance relating to communication of climate change issues by Met Eireann including in its TV and radio weather forecasts and other communications to the public. 2. All consideration by the board or executive of Met Eireann concerning communication of climate change to the public Summary of Decision I made a decision on your request on 8 October 2018 and identified 3 records which relate to your request. I have decided that you should be granted access in full to 2 records. The records will be provided to you electronically. In the case of the remaining record I have decided that this should be refused under the AIE Regulations pursuant to the following section: Discretionary grounds for refusal of information 9. (2) A public authority may refuse to make environmental information available where the request? (0) concerns material in the course of completion, or unfinished documents or data, or Public Interest Test Information on Emissions In reaching the decision to refuse some elements of your request I have, in accordance with Article 10(2) examined whether your request relates information on emissions into the environment and have determined that it does not. AND Furthermore, in accordance with Article 10(3) have weighed the public interest served by disclosure against the interest served by refusal of your request. I have determined that the public interest would not be served by disclosing the information you request. The attached Summary of decision-making summarises my decision and the enclosed Schedule of Records sets out the grounds of refusal in the case of each record refused/released with deletions Right of appeal Under Article 11 of the AIE Regulations you have a right to seek an internal review of this decision. An internal review involves a complete reconsideration of the matter by a member of the staff of this Department, of the same or higher rank than the original decision-maker, who may affirm, vary or annul the original decision made. The decision of this review will be communicated to you within one month of receipt of your application for an internal review. In the event that you wish to make such an appeal, you can do so by writing to the Information Officer, Organisation Unit, Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government, Custom House, Dublin 1 or e-mail aie@environ, referring to this decision and quoting your AIE reference number. You must make this request within one month of the date of this notification, (the making of a late appeal may be permitted in appropriate circumstances). Please contact me at 01 8064223 or manhineprenderqast?zmet.ie if you consider I can assist you in any matter relating to your request. Yours sincerely, (3135? JoSephine Prendergast Met Eireann ?j Schedule of Records AIE Request No: 2018 015 Record No. & Brief Description File Ref. Findings/Conclusions Grant or Refuse Internal email 05 October 2018 1 n/a Grant (R ) Draft potential media queries climate change V1 2 n/a Refuse (NR) Warm Dry Weather if June and July 2018 3 n/a Grant (R) Basis of Refusal Based on Section 9.2 (c) of the legislation Summary of decision-making STATEMENT OF REASONS FOR THE DECISION MADE ON REQUEST FOR ACCESS TO INFORMATION ON THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER REGULATIONS 2007- 2011 (S.I. No. 133 of 2007 & S.I. No. 662 of 2011 & S.I. No. 615 of 2014) AIE REQUEST NUMBER: ....AIE 2018 - 015.......................... REQUESTER NAME: ...Right to Know.................................................................................... SUMMARY OF REQUEST: A. ......... Any guidance relating to communication of climate change issues by Met Éireann including in its TV and radio weather forecasts and other communications to the public B. All consideration by the board or executive of Met Éireann concerning communication of climate change to the public. ............................................................................................................................ SUMMARY OF DECISION: NUMBER OF RECORDS COVERED BY THE REQUEST NUMBER OF RECORDS WHICH WILL BE RELEASED IN FULL (R) NUMBER OF RECORDS FOR WHICH RELEASE IS BEING DEFERRED (DR) NUMBER OF RECORDS WHICH WILL BE RELEASED WITH IN PART/WITH DELETIONS (RWD) NUMBER OF RECORDS WHICH WILL NOT BE RELEASED (NR) 3 2 1 Details of the records covered by this request are set out in the attached schedule. Opposite each record the letters R, DR, RWD or NR appear, depending on whether they are being released in full, release is being deferred, released in part or not released (see summary above). Full access has not been given to all the records requested as the Department considers it appropriate to apply some of the exemption provisions of regulations governing AIE. The schedule attached indicates the relevant provision of the AIE regulations (S.I. 133 of 2007) which covers this exemption. The schedule gives brief reasons why the exemption is being applied and copies of the relevant regulations are attached for your information. Further information on the main factors taken into account in reaching this decision is outlined in the summary of the findings. If you have any further queries on this matter please contact the undersigned: Name of decision maker: Josephine Prendergast Date of Decision: 08 October 2018 Phone: 01 8064223 Summary of Findings 1. Findings on material issues taken into account in reaching this decision The document (File Ref:2) is not being released as it is currently in draft format. Section 9.2 (c ) of the legislation states that a public authority may refuse to make environmental information available where the request concerns material in the course of completion, or unfinished documents or data. In compliance with Section 10.6 of the legislation this document will be completed by Met Éireann and it will be completed following incorporation of the recent IPCC report. This document is not being released in it’s draft form as if it is released prior to being finalised it may result in inaccurate, erroneous material being made public. 2. Public Interest factors taken into account in this decision. I have weighed the public interest served by disclosure against the interest served by refusal of your request. I have determined that the public interest would not be served by disclosing this record as it draft form it may contain inaccurate information. Warm Dry Weather of June and July 2018 Wednesday 1 August 2018 This is a preliminary report, based on the data from our Synoptic stations, and will be updated when all the data from our Climate stations is received. Prepared by Met Éireann 1 The weather included thunderstorms, heat waves, droughts and storm force winds. The following report is a summary of the weather for June and July 2018. Summary June 2018 There were intense thunderstorms especially on the 1st and 8th June, but in general the dry, settled weather from the end of May continued for the first two weeks of June with high pressure dominating producing and a slack easterly flow. The north Atlantic jet stream stayed well to the north. There was a break in the fine weather for the third week of that month. Storm Hector passed close to the Northwest, giving two days of rain and gales on the 13th and 14th followed by frontal systems crossing the country from the west up to the 20th. Even during this unsettled spell, rainfall totals were very low everywhere but especially in the South and East. From the 21st, the remainder of the month and the first part of July was settled and exceptionally dry due to an area of high pressure building over Ireland. For June and July, heat wave, partial drought and absolute drought conditions were reported in many locations (See tables below). above its LTA) and 30.1°C recorded at Moore Park, Co Cork (11.8°C above its LTA). On 29th June, Shannon Airport, Co Clare and Gurteen, Co Tipperary recorded temperatures above 30°C with a temperatures of 31.1°C (12.8°C above its LTA) and 30.1°C (11.8°C above its LTA) respectively. The highest (minimum) night-time temperature was 18.8°C recorded on the 29th at Mace Head, Co Galway (8.1°C above its LTA). FIGURE 1. METEOSAT VISIBLE SATELLITE 29TH FIGURE 2. METEOSAT VISIBLE SATELLITE 29TH On June 21st, an intense area of high pressure of was centred to the west of Ireland bringing a northwesterly air flow across Ireland. In the days that followed, an easterly airflow dominated our weather. It brought the warmest conditions, with the highest maximum temperature of 32.0°C recorded at Shannon Airport, Co Clare (13.7°C above its LTA) on the 28th. Over three days, 27th, 28th and 29th, five stations in counties Clare, Tipperary, Roscommon, Galway and Mayo recorded maximum screen air temperatures over 30°C. On the 27th, Shannon Airport recorded 30.8°C (12.5°C above its LTA) and Mount Dillon, Co Roscommon recorded 30.5°C (12.4°C above its LTA). On the 28th, Shannon Airport (mentioned above), 30.3°C was recorded at Mount Dillon, Co Roscommon (12.2°C above its LTA), 30.2°C was recorded at both Claremorris, Co Mayo (12.7°C above its LTA) and at Athenry, Co Galway (12.2°C 2 Summary July 2018 High temperatures and drought conditions, most prolonged in the East and South, were also experienced during July. The first half of the month was characterised by a large area of blocking high pressure stretching from the Azores to Scandinavia pushing the north Atlantic Jet Stream well to the north away from Ireland. This gave dry and very warm conditions with a lot of sunshine and light variable winds, with heat wave conditions continuing for a few days at the beginning of the month. For the second half of the month, up to the 26th, pressure stayed relatively high, but Atlantic weather fronts broke through on some occasions, giving somewhat cooler conditions with some rain at times to Western and Northern areas and more generally on the 15th, 20th and 23rd . An area of low pressure to the northwest became dominant from the 26th to the end of the month, with associated frontal troughs bringing wind, rain or heavy thundery showers. The latter part of July saw temperatures drop back to near normal levels for the time of year. There was also some rainfall recently which ended the Absolute drought status and Partial drought status in all areas. For July, rainfall was about 80% of normal in the west and about 47% of normal in the east. Gurteen, Co Tipperary had only 35% of normal rainfall in July. This follows on from a dry and warm May and June. Phoenix Park recorded its lowest combined two-monthly rainfall total of 34.5 mm for June and July since records began in 1850. LTA : Long-Term-Average period 1981-2010 DEFINITIONS A heat wave occurs where there are 5 consecutive days or more with maximum temperature over 25°C (that is, a daily maximum screen air temperature > 25°C). A dry spell is a period of 15 or more consecutive days to none of which is credited 1.0mm or more of precipitation (that is daily rainfall < 1.0mm). A partial drought is a period of at least 29 consecutive days the mean daily rainfall of which does not exceed 0.2mm (that is, a mean for period ≤ 0.2 mm). An absolute drought is a period of 15 or more consecutive days to none of which is credited 0.2mm or more of precipitation (that is, a daily rainfall total < 0.2mm). HEAT WAVES AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES Heat waves occur in summer when high pressure develops over the country. High pressure systems, also known as anticyclones, are slow-moving and can persist for a prolonged period of time, resulting in dry and settled weather. In anticyclones, cool air descends from aloft and diverges outwards at lower levels.. When a high pressure system materialises over Ireland, the jet stream is usually located to the north of us and keeps low pressure systems away. Different air masses affect us at different times of the year and this has a major impact upon the weather we experience in this country. The Tropical Continental air mass is the least frequent air mass affecting Ireland and is most common in summer, this air mass originates over North Africa. Although the lower layers of this air mass are usually quite stable, the unstable upper layers may give rise to severe thunderstorms. Its low humidity tends to bring us clear skies and long periods of sunshine. The highest temperatures experienced in Ireland usually occur under the influence of this air mass giving maximum temperatures in excess of 30°C. Ireland only experiences occasional heat waves compared to other European countries. In August 1976, Birr, Co Offaly recorded heat wave conditions lasting 14 days (the maximum temperature recorded at that station during this event was 28.2°C (8.9°C above its LTA)). More recently, heat wave conditions occurred in the summers of 2017, 2013, 2006, 2003, 1995, 1989 and 1983. Official heat waves were recorded at fifteen stations this year (see table below). RECORDED HEAT WAVE PERIODS SINCE 2000 3 STATION WITH LONGEST PERIOD START DATE END DATE LENGTH (Days) CAVAN 04-Aug-03 08-Aug-03 5 GLENGARRIFF 09-Jul-05 13-Jul-05 5 CAVAN 15-Jul-06 21-Jul-06 7 NAVAN 24-Jul-06 28-Jul-06 5 CASHEL 06-Jul-13 14-Jul-13 9 KILKENNY 17-Jun-17 21-Jun-17 5 OAK PARK 24-Jun-18 4-Jul-18 11 MULLINGAR 24-Jun-18 29-Jun-18 6 GURTEEN 24-Jun-18 30-Jun-18 7 ATHENRY 24-Jun-18 30-Jun-18 7 MOUNT DILLON 24-Jun-18 30-Jun-18 7 SHANNON AIRPORT 24-Jun-18 30-Jun-18 7 CASEMENT 24-Jun-18 28-Jun-18 5 MOORE PARK 26-Jun-18 4-Jul-18 9 BALLYHAISE 25-Jun-18 29-Jun-18 5 NEWPORT 25-Jun-18 29-Jun-18 5 DUNSANY 24-Jun-18 29-Jun-18 6 CLAREMORRIS 25-Jun-18 30-Jun-18 6 KNOCK AIRPORT 26-Jun-18 30-Jun-18 5 MARKREE 26-Jun-18 30-Jun-18 5 FINNER 26-Jun-18 30-Jun-18 5 4 HIGHEST JUNE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES PER DECADE DECADE TEMPERATURE STATION DATE 1940’s 29.8°C Mullingar 29th June 1949 1950’s 28.9°C Mullingar 6th June 1950 1960’s 26.6°C Belmullet 10th June 1963 26.6°C Mountmellick 1st June 1963 26.6°C Tuam 12th June 1968 1970’s 32.5°C Boora, Co. Offaly 29th June 1976 1980’s 28.7°C Galway 19th June 1989 1990’s 31.1°C Athy 29th June 1995 2000’s 28.6°C Galway 2nd June 2009 2010's 32.0°C Shannon Airport 28th June 2018 RECENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION  The last time an Irish June temperature was above 31.5°C occurred in 29 June 1976 at Shannon Airport, Co Clare, when it was 31.6°C (13.3°C above its LTA) and on the same day at Boora, Co Offaly it was 32.5°C (14.0°C above its LTA). 32.0°C recorded on 28 June 2018 at Shannon Airport, Co Clare (13.7°C above its LTA)     the highest temperature recorded so far this year; the highest June temperature recorded in Ireland since 1976; the highest temperature for any month since July 2006 when 32.3°C was recorded at Elphin, Co Roscommon (13.1°C above its LTA) on the 19th; and the highest temperature ever recorded at a synoptic station in Ireland. For more information on weather observing stations Ireland, see: https://www.met.ie/climate/weather-observing-stations 5 SUNSHINE The highest daily sunshine for June this year was 16.5 hours at Malin Head, Co Donegal on the 28th June. Malin Head also had a daily sunshine value of 16.4 hours on the 3rd July (the highest July daily sunshine value). A value of 16.0 hours was recorded at Knock Airport on the 24th June, its highest daily value since the station opened in 1997. All stations had above average sunshine for June and, apart from the North and West, most stations had above average sunshine for July. Monthly sunshine totals for June were highest at Johnstown Castle, Co Wexford with 299.9 hours. Monthly sunshine totals for July were also highest at Johnstown Castle, Co Wexford with 245.3 hours. 6 RAINFALL AND DROUGHT RAINFALL For the combined June and July period all stations reported rainfall below the long term average (LTA). This was particularly the case in midland eastern and southern areas with between one third and one half of the Long Term Average rainfall reported. At the Phoenix Park it was the driest JuneJuly period in the available digital record which dates from 1850. Rainfall totals and % of LTA for June and July 2018 Station name June June July July (mm) (% LTA) (mm) (% LTA) June & July June & July (mm) (% LTA) Phoenix Park, Dublin 4.1 6% 30.5 56% 34.6 28 Mace Head 31.6 38% 47.9 57% 79.5 48 Oak Park 5.2 9% 42.5 72% 47.7 40 Shannon Airport 13.6 19% 57 86% 70.6 52 Dublin Airport 4.8 7% 40 71% 44.8 36 Moore Park 32.4 46% 42.9 69% 75.3 57 Ballyhaise 40.9 60% 69.2 94% 110.1 78 Sherkin Island 17.2 23% 48.8 63% 66.0 43 Mullingar 27.1 37% 33.5 47% 60.6 42 Roches Point 12.4 19% 47.2 75% 59.6 47 Newport 65.9 73% 58.5 58% 124.4 65 Markree 39.6 48% 71.2 77% 110.8 63 Dunsany 11.4 16% 41.9 68% 53.3 40 Gurteen 22.8 32% 24.1 36% 46.9 34 Malin Head 51.1 73% 60.3 75% 111.4 74 Johnstown Castle 12.7 17% 53.3 73% 66.0 45 Athenry 25.2 32% 69.7 81% 94.9 57 Mount Dillon 82.2 111% 42.2 58% 124.4 84 Finner 47.7 66% 84 92% 131.7 81 Claremorris 43.1 58% 62.7 84% 105.8 71 Valentia Observatory, Kerry 39.2 41% 50.1 51% 89.3 46 Belmullet 40.1 56% 64.1 81% 104.2 69 Casement 18.5 30% 30.1 56% 48.6 42 Cork Airport 10.4 13% 40.1 51% 50.5 32 Knock Airport 54.1 59% 82.6 86% 136.7 73 7 DROUGHT The tables show droughts recorded this year to date. The last time there were drought conditions in Ireland was April to May 2017 in the Midlands and the West. RECORDED ABSOLUTE DROUGHTS 2018 STATION START DATE END DATE LENGTH (Days) Belmullet 22-May-18 12-Jun-18 22 Phoenix Park 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 15 Mace Head 21-Jun-18 06-Jul-18 15 Oak Park 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 24 Shannon Airport 21-Jun-18 13-Jul-18 23 Dublin Airport 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 24 Sherkin Island 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 24 Ballyhaise 21-Jun-18 10-Jul-18 20 Mullingar 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 24 Roches Point 21-Jun-18 05-Jul-18 15 Dunsany 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 24 Gurteen 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 24 Johnstown Castle 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 24 Athenry 21-Jun-18 07-Jul-18 17 Mount Dillon 21-Jun-18 10-Jul-18 20 Finner 21-Jun-18 09-Jul-18 19 Claremorris Valentia Casement Cork Airport Knock Airport 21-Jun-18 21-Jun-18 21-Jun-18 21-Jun-18 21-Jun-18 10-Jul-18 13-Jul-18 14-Jul-18 05-Jul-18 10-Jul-18 20 23 24 15 20 RECORDED PARTIAL DROUGHTS JUNE-JULY 2018 Oak Park Cork Airport Moore Park Roches Point Casement Dublin Airport Phoenix Park Dunsany Gurteen Johnstown Castle 8 28-May-18 21-Jun-18 14-Jun-18 21-Jun-18 03-Jun-18 28-May-18 28-May-18 21-Jun-18 21-Jun-18 18-Jun-18 19-Jul-18 25-Jul-18 14-Jul-18 25-Jul-18 19-Jul-18 19-Jul-18 19-Jul-18 19-Jul-18 25-Jul-18 20-Jul-18 52 35 31 35 47 53 53 29 35 33 RECORDED DRY SPELLS JUNE-JULY 2018 Belmullet 21-Jun-18 13-Jul-18 23 Moore Park 18-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 27 Newport 21-Jun-18 10-Jul-18 20 Markree 21-Jun-18 14-Jul-18 24 Malin Head 21-Jun-18 10-Jul-18 20 Notably dry June 2018 Johnstown (62m), Co Wexford 12.7 mm (17% of its LTA), driest in 77 years (previous dry or drier: on record ) Phoenix Park, Co Dublin (48m), Co Dublin 4.1 mm (6% of its LTA), driest in 76 years (previous dry or drier: 4.1 mm in 1942) Dublin Airport (71m), Co Dublin 4.8 mm (7% of its LTA), driest in 76 years (previous dry or drier: 4 mm in 1942) Shannon Airport (15m), Co Clare 13.6 mm (19% of its LTA), driest in 72 years (previous dry or drier: on record ) Cork Airport (155m), Co Cork 10.4 mm (13% of its LTA), driest in 56 years (previous dry or drier: on record ) Dunsany (83m), Co Meath 11.4 mm (16% of its LTA), driest in 54 years (previous dry or drier: on record ) Athenry (40m), Co Galway 25.2 mm (32% of its LTA), driest in 43 years (previous dry or drier: 22.8 mm in 1975) Valentia Observatory (24m), Co Kerry 39.2 mm (41% of its LTA), driest in 43 years (previous dry or drier: 18 mm in 1975) Notably dry July 2018 Gurteen (75m), Co Tipperary 24.1 mm (36% of its LTA), driest in 63 years (previous dry or drier: 10.6 mm in 1955) Soil moisture deficits Soil moisture deficits give an indication of the amount of moisture available for growth Current soil moisture deficits range from around 25mm in the north and west to over 70mm in the Midlands and East. 9 Is Ireland’s dry, warm weather of June and July, 2018 due to climate change? There is no simple yes or no answer to the question. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, episodes of extreme heat and precipitation are increasing as a result of climate change. Although it is not possible to attribute the individual extreme events of June and July to climate change, they are compatible with the general longterm trend due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. It is a fact that a current weather event is occurring in a climate that is approximately 1°C warmer than pre-industrial times but that alone does not mean that the event would not have occurred if the climate were colder by 1 degree (pre- industrial). An extreme event occurring in the current (warmer) climate is within the natural variability of the current climate, but it may also have been possible for it to have occurred in the colder climate, but perhaps more or less likely. The Fifth Assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that ‘human influence on the climate system is clear’ and that ‘changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950. Societies around the world are faced with increasing climate change risks. Many recent studies have found that the probability of the extreme event has been influenced by human activity, either directly or indirectly. Of a set of 131 studies published between 2011 and 2016 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 65% found that the event’s probability was significantly affected by anthropogenic activities. In the case of some extreme high temperatures, the probability increased by a factor of ten or more. How can weather events be attributed to anthropogenic climate change? In order to give an evidence based estimate of whether a particular event can be attributed to climate change, a relatively new area of study in the field of climate change detection and attribution has recently developed. This is achieved by running a model with only natural influences in it, such as the solar cycle and volcanoes. Then the real world model is run this includes human influences, such as emitting greenhouses gases, expanding cities, deforestation and many other things, along with natural influences. The two model outputs are the compared. By running an ensemble of models it is then possible to give a percentage probability of how more/less likely a particular event is. These model simulations are expensive to run computationally, so it is not possible to get information on attribution in real time. Results of attribution studies have statements like “the event is 30% more likely to have occurred in a warmer climate”. Met Éireann is involved in a European project EUPHEME, which is studying study attribution of a number of extreme events. There is also an attribution project underway in UCC which is looking at an assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on Irish weather extremes. General Climatology Enquiries Unit Climatology & Observations Division Met Éireann (2018) For future information please contact enq@met.ie , 01-8064260 10 6 September 2018 Climate Attribution Statement The question is asked from time to time whether a particular weather event can be related or attributed to anthropogenic climate change, please use the following as a guide when answering such queries: There is no simple yes or no answer to the question. It is a fact that a current weather event is occurring in a climate that is approximately 1 degree Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times but that alone does not mean that the event would not have occurred if the climate were colder by 1 degree (pre industrial). An extreme event occurring in the current (warmer) climate is within the natural variability of the current climate, but it may also have been possible for it to have occurred in the colder climate, but perhaps more or less likely. A comment along the lines of ‘We can’t say if the event is as a result of Climate Change, but it is the type of event that is projected to occur more frequently in a changed climate’ can be used if the question arises The Fifth Assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that ‘human influence on the climate system is clear’ and that ‘changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950’. Societies around the world are faced with increasing climate change risks. How can weather events be attributed to anthropogenic climate change: In order to give an evidence based estimate of whether an event can be attributed to climate change, a relatively new area of study in the field of climate change detection and attribution has recently developed. This is achieved by running a model with only natural influences in it, such as the solar cycle and volcanoes. Then the real world model is run - this includes human influences, such as emitting greenhouses gases, expanding cities, deforestation and many other things, along with natural influences. The two model outputs are the compared. By running an ensemble of models it is then possible to give a percentage probability of how more/less likely a particular event is. These model simulations are expensive to run computationally, so it is not possible to get information on attribution in real time. Results of attribution studies have statements like “the event is 30% more likely to have occurred in a warmer climate”. There is currently an attribution project underway in UCC which is looking at an assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on Irish weather extremes. You can also use material from the IT article today Link to the article online https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/summer-heatwaves-made-twice-as-likely-by-climate-change1.3619307