1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from October 04, 2018 to October 07, 2018 among a sample of 1,009 respondents. The landline total respondents were 407 and there were 602 cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/-3.8 at the 95% confidence level, for results among the 920 registered voters it is +/-4.0, and for results among the 739 likely voters it is +/-4.4. The design effect is 1.51. More information about SSRS can be obtained by visiting www.ssrs.com. Unless otherwise noted, results beginning with the March 31-April 2, 2006 survey and ending with the April 22-25, 2017 survey are from surveys conducted by ORC International. Results before March 31, 2006 are from surveys conducted by Gallup. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 14 at 9:00 a.m. POLL9 @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 1 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com Q28. As you may have heard, Donald Trump has decided to run for re-election. Please just give me your best guess, do you think he will win the presidential election in 2020, or do you think he will lose? October 04-07, 2018 March 22-25, 2018 Will win Will lose No opinion 46% 47% 7% 40% 54% 6% CNN/TIME TRENDS FOR COMPARISON Obama 2010 Mar 19-21** Clinton 1995 Jan 5*** Will win Will lose No opinion 44% 54% 2% 24% 65% 11% **QUESTION WORDING: Please give me your best guess -- if Barack Obama decides to run for re-election, do you think he will win the presidential election in 2012, or do you think he will lose? ***QUESTION WORDING: Please give me your best guess -- if Bill Clinton decides to run for re-election, do you think he will win the presidential election in 1996, or do you think he will lose? POLL9 @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 2 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com (Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning; N=464) Q29. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in 2020. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, or if you would support someone else. Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former Secretary of State John Kerry Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti Attorney Michael Avenatti New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick Montana Governor Steve Bullock Maryland Congressman John Delaney Someone else (vol.) None/No one (vol.) No opinion POLL9 October 04-07, 2018 33% 13% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * 2% 2% 6% @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 3 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com (Respondents who are Republicans/Republican-leaning, N=469) Q30. Do you think the Republican party should re-nominate Donald Trump as the party's candidate for president in 2020, or do you think the Republican party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020? October 04-07, 2018 March 22-25, 2018 Re-nominate Trump Different candidate No opinion 74% 21% 5% 75% 20% 4% CNN/TIME TRENDS FOR COMPARISON Obama 2010 Mar 19-21** Clinton 1994 Nov 9-10*** Re-nominate Candidate Different candidate No opinion 76% 20% 4% 57% 32% 11% **QUESTION WORDING: Do you think the Democratic party should re-nominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012? ***QUESTION WORDING: Do you think the Democratic party should re-nominate Bill Clinton as the party’s candidate in 1996 or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for President in 1996. (Republicans/Republican-leaning independents who believe the Republican Party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020, N=77) Q31. While we know it is early and most candidates have not announced their candidacies yet, which candidate in particular would you prefer to see the Republican Party nominate for president instead of Donald Trump in 2020? COMBO TABLE Q30/Q31: Re-nominate Trump Different candidate Named a candidate (No individual candidate received more than 1% support) Not Trump/No name given Don’t know/Refused No opinion POLL9 October 04-07, 2018 74% 21% 11% 4% 6% 5% @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 4 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com MORE ON METHODOLOGY A total of 1,009 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Among the entire sample, 31% described themselves as Democrats, 25% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. For the sample of 920 registered voters and adults who plan to register to vote before Election Day, it is +/- 4.0 percentage points. For the sample of 739 likely voters, it is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/-8.5 percentage points or less once adjusted for design effect. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a design-effect adjusted sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "N/A". POLL9 @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 5 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com CNN/SSRS Poll -- October 04, 2018 to October 07, 2018 TABLE 074 Question 28 28. As you may have heard, Donald Trump has decided to run for re-election. Please just give me your best guess, do you think he will win the presidential election in 2020, or do you think he will lose? Base: Total Respondents Trump approve ===== 84% 11% 5% 5.7 Trump disap prove ===== 16% 75% 8% 5.4 Will win Will lose Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Total ===== 46% 47% 7% 3.8 Men ===== 54% 38% 8% 5.1 Women ===== 39% 54% 7% 5.6 White ===== 52% 42% 6% 4.6 Nonwhite ===== 35% 55% 10% 6.8 Will win Will lose Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Total ===== 46% 47% 7% 3.8 18-34 ===== N/A N/A N/A 35-49 ===== 46% 49% 5% 7.9 50-64 ===== 50% 44% 6% 6.3 65+ ===== 41% 49% 10% 6.4 <45 ===== 46% 47% 7% 6.6 45+ ===== 46% 46% 8% 4.3 Coll. grad. ===== 42% 50% 8% 5.1 White noncoll. ===== 56% 39% 5% 6.1 White coll. grad. ===== 43% 50% 7% 6.1 Con serva tive ===== 72% 24% 4% 6.3 Will win Will lose Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Will win Will lose Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Will win Will lose Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) POLL9 Total ===== 46% 47% 7% 3.8 <$50K ===== 41% 51% 8% 6.5 $50K+ ===== 50% 43% 7% 4.8 Noncoll. grad ===== 48% 45% 7% 5.1 Total ===== 46% 47% 7% 3.8 Democrat ===== 14% 80% 7% 7.0 Indep endnt Other ===== 47% 43% 10% 5.9 Repub lican ===== 82% 14% 4% 7.2 Liberal ===== 22% 71% 7% 7.5 Moderate ===== 39% 51% 10% 6.5 Total ===== 46% 47% 7% 3.8 Lean Democrat ===== 16% 75% 9% 5.5 Lean Repub lican ===== 79% 17% 4% 5.7 Reg. voter ===== 46% 47% 6% 4.0 RV: Very Enthu Cong. ===== 46% 48% 6% 5.1 RV: Less Enthu Cong. ===== 48% 46% 6% 6.3 @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 6 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com CNN/SSRS Poll -- October 04, 2018 to October 07, 2018 TABLE 082 Question 29 29. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in 2020. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, or if you would support someone else. Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren Former Secretary of State John Kerry New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar Attorney Michael Avenatti New York Senator Kirstin Gillibrand Maryland Congressman John Delaney Montana Governor Steve Bullock Someone else None/No one Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Total ===== 33% 13% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * 2% 2% 6% 5.5 Men ===== 35% 15% 9% 7% 5% 6% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% * 1% 0% * 2% 1% 5% 7.9 Women ===== 32% 12% 10% 9% 6% 4% 4% 5% 3% * 2% 1% 1% * * 0% 2% 2% 7% 7.6 White ===== 33% 13% 10% 10% 4% 5% 5% 5% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% * * 1% 2% 5% 7.3 Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren Former Secretary of State John Kerry New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar Attorney Michael Avenatti New York Senator Kirstin Gillibrand Maryland Congressman John Delaney Montana Governor Steve Bullock Someone else None/No one Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Total ===== 33% 13% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * 2% 2% 6% 5.5 18-34 ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 35-49 ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 50-64 ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POLL9 Nonwhite ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Trump approve ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Trump disap prove ===== 35% 13% 10% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% * 2% 1% 6% 5.8 65+ ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A <45 ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 45+ ===== 39% 8% 6% 6% 7% 5% 3% 5% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% * * * 2% 3% 6% 6.5 @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 7 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com CNN/SSRS Poll -- October 04, 2018 to October 07, 2018 TABLE 082 Question 29 29. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in 2020. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, or if you would support someone else. Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren Former Secretary of State John Kerry New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar Attorney Michael Avenatti New York Senator Kirstin Gillibrand Maryland Congressman John Delaney Montana Governor Steve Bullock Someone else None/No one Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) POLL9 Total ===== 33% 13% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * 2% 2% 6% 5.5 <$50K ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K+ ===== 34% 11% 9% 9% 3% 4% 7% 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% * 2% 2% 3% 7.1 Noncoll. grad ===== 38% 11% 5% 7% 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% * 1% 1% * * 2% 2% 9% 7.8 Coll. grad. ===== 25% 17% 15% 11% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 7.2 @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 8 White noncoll. ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White coll. grad. ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com CNN/SSRS Poll -- October 04, 2018 to October 07, 2018 TABLE 082 Question 29 29. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in 2020. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, or if you would support someone else. Base: Respondents who are Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren Former Secretary of State John Kerry New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar Attorney Michael Avenatti New York Senator Kirstin Gillibrand Maryland Congressman John Delaney Montana Governor Steve Bullock Someone else None/No one Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Former Vice President Joe Biden Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders California Senator Kamala Harris Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren Former Secretary of State John Kerry New Jersey Senator Cory Booker Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke Former Attorney General Eric Holder Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar Attorney Michael Avenatti New York Senator Kirstin Gillibrand Maryland Congressman John Delaney Montana Governor Steve Bullock Someone else None/No one Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) POLL9 Total ===== 33% 13% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * 2% 2% 6% 5.5 Democrat ===== 34% 9% 11% 8% 6% 5% 3% 6% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * 0% 1% 2% 6% 7.0 Total ===== 33% 13% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * 2% 2% 6% 5.5 Lean Democrat ===== 33% 13% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * 2% 2% 6% 5.5 Indep endnt Other ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lean Repub lican ===== 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% .0 Repub lican ===== 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% .0 Liberal ===== 28% 13% 15% 11% 4% 6% 4% 5% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 2% 6% 8.2 Moderate ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Reg. voter ===== 33% 14% 10% 9% 4% 5% 3% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * * 2% 1% 6% 5.7 RV: Very Enthu Cong. ===== 30% 10% 11% 12% 5% 5% 3% 7% 4% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 5% 7.2 RV: Less Enthu Cong. ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 9 Con serva tive ===== N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 Braxton Way Suite 125 Glen Mills, PA 19342 484-840-4300 www.ssrs.com CNN/SSRS Poll -- October 04, 2018 to October 07, 2018 TABLE 083 Question 30 30. Do you think the Republican party should re-nominate Donald Trump as the party's candidate for president in 2020, or do you think the Republican party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2020? Base: Respondents who are Republicans/Republican-leaning independents Nonwhite ===== N/A N/A N/A Trump approve ===== 85% 10% 5% 6.0 Trump disap prove ===== N/A N/A N/A Re-nominate Trump Different candidate Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Total ===== 74% 21% 5% 5.7 Men ===== 78% 17% 5% 7.0 Women ===== N/A N/A N/A White ===== 79% 15% 6% 6.2 Re-nominate Trump Different candidate Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Total ===== 74% 21% 5% 5.7 18-34 ===== N/A N/A N/A 35-49 ===== N/A N/A N/A 50-64 ===== N/A N/A N/A 65+ ===== N/A N/A N/A <45 ===== N/A N/A N/A 45+ ===== 80% 14% 6% 5.9 $50K+ ===== 78% 17% 5% 6.8 Noncoll. grad ===== 73% 23% 3% 7.3 Coll. grad. ===== 76% 16% 8% 7.7 White noncoll. ===== 80% 16% 4% 8.2 White coll. grad. ===== N/A N/A N/A Liberal ===== N/A N/A N/A Moderate ===== N/A N/A N/A RV: Very Enthu Cong. ===== 88% 9% 4% 7.4 RV: Less Enthu Cong. ===== N/A N/A N/A Re-nominate Trump Different candidate Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Re-nominate Trump Different candidate Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) Re-nominate Trump Different candidate Don't know/Undecided/Refused Sampling Error (+/-) POLL9 Total ===== 74% 21% 5% 5.7 <$50K ===== N/A N/A N/A Total ===== 74% 21% 5% 5.7 Democrat ===== 0% 0% 0% .0 Total ===== 74% 21% 5% 5.7 Lean Democrat ===== 0% 0% 0% .0 Indep endnt Other ===== N/A N/A N/A Lean Repub lican ===== 74% 21% 5% 5.7 Repub lican ===== 81% 14% 5% 7.2 Reg. voter ===== 77% 19% 4% 5.8 @ssrs_research 484.840.4300 www.ssrs.com 10 Con serva tive ===== 82% 12% 6% 6.9