This Washington Post-University of Maryland poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 4-7, 2018 among a random sample of 870 residents of Maryland including 814 registered voters. Interviews were conducted by live interviewers on both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey and the sample of registered voters both have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points; the error margin is 4.5 points among the sample of 648 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md. (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) RV=Registered voters LV=Likely voters *= less than 0.5 percent 1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else? 10/7/18 RV 6/3/18 RV Democrat 55 55 Republican 26 26 Independent 15 15 Other 2 2 No opinion 1 2 2. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the upcoming election for governor in Maryland this November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? 10/7/18 RV Certain to vote 74 Probably vote 13 Chances 50/50 6 Less than 50/50 4 Will not vote (vol.) 2 No op. 1 Compare to previous gubernatorial elections: Certain to vote 10/5/14 RV 60 10/22/10* RV 69 9/26/10* RV 71 5/6/10* RV 67 10/26/06* RV 72 *”and U.S. Senator” Probably vote 18 14 14 19 13 Chances 50/50 12 8 10 11 7 Less than 50/50 7 5 4 2 4 Don't think will vote (vol.) 3 2 1 1 1 Already voted (vol.) 1 NA NA NA 1 No op * 1 * * 1 3. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If the election were being held today and the candidates were (Ben Jealous, the Democrat) and (Larry Hogan, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? 10/7/18 10/7/18 LV RV Jealous 38 36 6/3/18 RV 39 Hogan 58 56 Other (vol.) 0 0 Neither (vol.) 2 2 Wouldn’t vote (vol.) 0 2 No op. 3 4 51 0 2 1 7 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Larry Hogan is handling his job as governor of Maryland? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 10/7/18 10/7/18 RV 6/3/18 6/3/18 RV 3/19/17 9/30/16 4/3/16 10/11/15 2/8/15 -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 68 35 34 72 37 36 71 26 45 74 29 45 65 27 38 71 34 36 66 30 36 61 28 33 42 18 24 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 17 10 7 18 10 8 20 13 7 20 13 7 17 11 6 18 11 7 19 11 8 22 13 9 24 14 10 No op. 15 10 9 5 18 11 15 18 34 48 39 41 41 36 36 33 34 37 36 11 7 10 9 9 9 11 12 10 11 Compare to: Martin O’Malley 10/5/14 RV 41 2/16/14 55 2/24/13 49 10/15/12 RV 49 1/26/12 55 10/22/10 RV* 55 9/26/10 57 5/6/10 54 10/20/08 RV 53 10/22/07 53 *“Regardless of how you 14 21 16 18 16 21 20 17 14 12 may vote…” 27 33 33 31 39 34 37 37 39 40 14 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 16 18 34 27 28 28 21 21 17 17 21 19 30 21 21 25 36 42 42 41 28 19 21 17 23 20 11 3 3 10 9 16 14 29 38 41 58 40 36 22 21 19 37 19 18 4 6 9 Bob Ehrlich 10/26/06 LV 6/25/06 RV 1/7/04 All 55 56 62 Parris Glendening: 10/24/02 LV 10/22/98 LV 6/17/98 LV 37 54 55 5. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If Governor Hogan wins reelection in November, would you rather see the Maryland legislature controlled by the (Democrats, to act as a check on Hogan), or controlled by the (Republicans, to support Hogan’s agenda)? 10/7/18 Controlled by Democrats 57 Controlled by Republicans 32 No opinion 12 6. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) As you may know, Democrats have a clear majority in the state legislature. If Republicans had a majority in the state legislature, would you be more likely to support (Republican Larry Hogan’s reelection) in the governor’s election this year, more likely to support (Democrat Ben Jealous), or would this not make a difference? 10/7/18 More likely to support Hogan 25 More likely to support Jealous 24 Would not make a difference 48 No opinion 3 7. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of [ITEM]? 10/7/18 Summary Table a. Larry Hogan b. Ben Jealous Favorable 68 36 Unfavorable 18 32 No opinion 14 32 Trend: a. Larry Hogan Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 10/7/18 RV 68 18 14 6/3/18 RV 66 20 14 10/11/15* RV 65 20 16 10/5/14 RV 33 21 46 2/16/14 RV 17 9 74 *2015 and previous: For each of the following people and groups, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person or group, or perhaps you don’t know enough to say. b. Ben Jealous 10/7/18 6/3/18 RV RV Favorable 36 33 Unfavorable 32 16 No opinion 32 51 8. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Please tell me whether each of the following statements applies more to (Hogan) or (Jealous)? The first is [ITEM] How about [ITEM]? [IF NEEDED: Does [ITEM] apply more to (Hogan) or (Jealous)? Hogan a. he is honest and trustworthy b. he really cares about people like you c. he agrees with you on most policy issues Jealous Both equally (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion 52 23 8 6 10 51 30 5 4 10 51 34 2 3 10 9. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you describe [ITEM]’s political views as: very conservative, somewhat conservative, middle-of-the-road, somewhat liberal or very liberal? a. Larry Hogan b. Ben Jealous ----Conservative----NET Very Somewhat 46 7 40 7 2 5 Middle of the road 38 16 -------Liberal------NET Somewhat Very 8 6 3 56 26 31 No op. 7 21 10. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Which candidate do you trust more to handle [ITEM] - (Hogan) or (Jealous)? And which candidate do you trust more to handle [NEXT ITEM]? a. Public kindergarten through 12th grade education b. Health care Hogan Jealous Both equally (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion 48 50 36 36 2 1 3 4 10 9 c. Maryland’s economy d. Taxes 62 59 25 26 2 1 3 4 8 11 11. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you seen any television ads about Larry Hogan in the last few months? IF YES: Would you say those ads were (mostly positive) toward Hogan or (mostly negative)? 10/7/18 -----------Yes----------Mostly Mostly NET positive negative 60 49 11 No 35 No opinion 5 12. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you seen any television ads about Ben Jealous in the last few months? IF YES: Would you say those ads were (mostly positive) toward Jealous? or (mostly negative)? 10/7/18 -----------Yes----------Mostly Mostly NET positive negative 44 24 20 No 49 No opinion 7 On another subject, 13. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Generally speaking, how would you rate the overall economy of Maryland: Excellent, good, not-so-good, or poor? 10/7/18 2/24/13 10/15/12 1/26/12 10/22/10 9/26/10 5/6/10 10/22/07 1/7/04 10/24/02 10/22/98 6/17/98 RV RV RV RV LV LV -Excellent/Good-NET Exc. Good 76 11 65 46 2 44 52 3 49 47 3 44 45 2 43 40 3 37 41 3 38 64 6 58 63 4 59 57 3 54 76 8 67 75 8 67 ----Not-so-good/Poor---NET Not-so-good Poor 22 17 6 53 40 13 47 34 13 52 39 13 54 40 15 59 43 16 57 42 15 35 24 10 36 28 8 42 33 9 23 18 4 23 17 6 No opinion 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 14. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Which best describes your family's financial situation? Do you feel as if you (are getting ahead financially), have just enough money to maintain your standard of living, or (are falling behind financially)? 10/7/18 RV 2/8/15 RV 10/22/07 Getting ahead 34 25 25 Just enough to maintain 53 57 58 Falling behind 12 18 17 No opinion 2 * 1 Thinking about transportation, 15. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think Maryland’s transportation budget should be focused more on expanding and building roads or on providing more public transportation options, such as trains or buses? Expanding/ Providing more public 10/7/18 RV 10/11/15 RV building roads 48 46 transportation projects 47 49 No opinion 6 5 16. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) There is a proposal to add express lanes to some of Maryland’s busiest highways, which drivers would pay a toll to use instead of regular highway lanes. Tolls would change based on traffic: Drivers would pay more when traffic is heavy and less when it is light. Would you support or oppose adding these lanes? Do you feel that way STRONGLY, or SOMEWHAT? 10/7/18 ---------Support--------NET Strongly Somewhat 44 18 26 ---------Oppose---------NET Somewhat Strongly 50 17 33 No opinion 6 17. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Changing topics, how would you rate the public schools in your county? Excellent, good, only fair, or poor? 10/7/18 10/7/18 Parents ----Excellent/Good---NET Excellent Good 59 21 38 64 26 38 ----Only fair/Poor---NET Only fair Poor 34 20 14 32 18 14 No opinion 7 4 18. (AMONG PARENTS) Do you think [ITEM] (is/are) currently a problem in your county’s public schools, or not? IF YES: Do you see this as a major problem, or a problem but not a major one? a. Too much standardized testing b. Overcrowded classrooms c. Low test scores d. Corruption in the public school system -----Yes, problem-----NET Major Not major No No opinion 49 61 46 31 47 32 18 14 13 43 33 46 8 6 8 38 29 10 48 14 Question 19 held for release. 20. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF LIBERAL/CONSERVATIVE) Would you say that you are very liberal/conservative or somewhat liberal/conservative? 10/7/18 RV ----Conservative----NET Very Somewhat 28 11 17 Moderate 42 -------Liberal------NET Somewhat Very 27 15 13 Other/ No op. 2 ** END ** METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and The University of Maryland's Center for American Politics and Citizenship within the College of Behavioral and Social Science's Department of Government and Politics. The poll includes interviews in English and Spanish. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as appears in this document. Demographics are not shown. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Questions that contain parenthetical phrases indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Trended references to results with “LV” or “RV” indicate results among likely voters or registered voters. A total of 348 interviews were completed using dual frame Random Digit Dialing (RDD) procedures of landline and cellular phones in Maryland, while 522 interviews were completed by randomly sampling from a database of Maryland registered voters maintained by Aristotle, Inc., in which voters have been matched to landline and cellular phone numbers. The sample of registered voters was weighted to match the proportions of Democrats, Republicans and other registrants according to the Maryland Board of Elections. In the RDD sample and cellphone voter file sample, interviewers called first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. In the voter file landline sample, interviewers confirmed respondents’ names were the same as those listed in the voter registration database. The total sample included 383 interviews on landlines and 487 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 269 interviews with adults in cellphone-only households. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who were interviewed through the RDD and voter list samples based on the size of each frame. Weights correct for differential probability of selection for landline-only, cellphone-only and dual phone users. Results are also weighted to match the demographic makeup of the population according to the latest American Community Survey by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education and by region of Maryland, and the National Health Interview Survey by telephone usage. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.5 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Unweighted sample size 870 Error margin (+/-) 4 points Registered voters Democrats Republicans Indep/Other Likely voters 814 442 229 128 648 4 5.5 8 10.5 4.5 Parents 210 8.5 Group All adults % of weighted sample --55% 26 18 Maryland Board of Elections* NA 100% 55% 26 20 *August 2018 voter registration statistics The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls. Charter Member Transnarencv Initiative AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH