Case Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 1 of 18 EXHIBIT 145 Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 2 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT Admissions Part ll Subtitle February 14, 2012 Office of Institutional Research Highly Confidential - Attorney's Eyes Only HAP V00065741 7 Summary Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 3 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT • Athletes and Legacies explain the difference in raw admit rates for Asian and White applicants. • Asian applicants have higher average ratings and test scores (excluding the personal rating). • Differences exist in the raw admit rates of Asian and White students with similar test scores and academic indices. Even top scores and ratings don't guarantee admission. • Personal rating is important in models of the admissions process and drive some of the demographic differences we see. HARV00065742 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only 2 Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 4 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT Admit Rates by Ethnicity, Classes of2007-2016 18% 0111* 16% _ 14% - • • • • • 12% - 10% - c, s e-=- `----' Illi•' ' • .1.• ... ▪ I '' 't =-,‘ Nb , ...4•0014%.. % / Asian ' -\ 4M•1 I NI ft NA % ft. 11111b 8% _ International Oft, Min - African American — Hispanic 6% - - — Native American — Unknown 4% - W hite 2% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Admit Rate -White 7.60% 9.39% 7.72% 7.71% 8.56% 7.72% 6.57% 6.36% 5.45% 6.02% Admit Rate -Asian 11.69% 12.13% 11.27% 11.58% 10.94% 9.93% 9.11% 8.76% 7.58% 7.50% Difference 4.09% 2.74% 3.55% 3.88% 2.38% 2.21% 2.54% 2.40% 2.14% 1.48% HARV00065743 Highly Confidential - Attorney's Eyes Only 3 Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 5 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT Non-Legacy, Non-Athlete Admit Rates by Ethnicity, Classes of2007-2016 16% 4•11. .1/ 1 4 14% _ 12% • • el% 400 400 10% - • 41M1 • IMO 1 1 *ma we. MM. IMM • Si • % r44. 8% • ••• 6% 410. - — African American 44. 4 ▪ 444 . ••• Asian 40. • I nternational 4146 one - — Hispanic \ awn . 411P — Native American 4% — Unknown W hite 2% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Admit Rate -White 7.21% 8.90% 7.34% 7.34% 8.09% 7.21% 6.00% 5.96% 4.93% 5.34% Admit Rate -Asian 8.75% 8.79% 8.30% 8.26% 7.46% 7.17% 6.46% 6.25% 5.32% 5.09% Difference 1.54% -0.12% 0.96% 0.93% -0.64% -0.04% 0.46% 0.29% 0.38% -0.25% HARV00065744 Highly Confidential - Attorney's Eyes Only 4 Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 6 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT Difference in Average Test Scores and Ratingsfor White and Asian Applicants SAT ll Average SATAverage Alumni Rating 2 I I Alumni Rating 1 Guidance Rating I Teacher Rating 2 Teacher Rating 1 Personal Rating Extracurricular Rating Academic Rating -0.2 -0.1 White Higher o 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Asian Higher Notes: • Excludes legacies and athletes. • OIR doesn't have all ratings for all years, so number of applicants differs for each rating/test score. • Differences Vrikc'srenig-dliceMSR Only HARV00065745 7 Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 7 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT 7 Admit Rates by Academic Indexfor White and Asian Applicants, Classes of2007-2016 6,000 - - 60% White N 5,000 4,000 — I - 50% White Admit Rate / / / i • _/ - 40% asian(N) • white(N) - 30% 3,000 — I I / .. -. • / Asian Admit Rate Asian N 2,000 — / 00 •• •• at , IMP 010 OM .... co/ MO INID , ••• .N. . ..... r • 60 ••• moms a / =ID , es IP ammo 6/. ma. • • 0 .• 1. =Mr 20% do 10% awn iiir" • • 0 0% 0.02 0.12 0.22 0.32 0.42 0.52 0.62 0.72 0.82 0.92 1.02 1.12 1.22 1.32 1.42 1.52 white — asian •• 00 osa .1 •• • •• •• •• 1,000 1. •• • • 4.0 .1 1.62 Standardized Academic Index (0 = Average Academic Index) Notes: • Excludes legacies and athletes. • Academic Index doesn't account for everything in admissions process. Even top rated students barely have a 50% adrrlitRV00065746 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only rate. PRELIMINARY DRAFT Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 8 of 18 Admit Rates by Average SAT!for White and Asian Applicants, Classes of2007-2016 _ 35% 10,000 - 9,000 I - 30% 8,000 I i I 1 I 7,000 6,000 — 5,000 - 25% - 20% —asian(N) white(N) I - 15% 4,000 — — white — — asian 3,000 — 10% 2,000 - 5% 1,000 , 40 OUP MM. = ... 0 is 60 MP 61 or' ma* mlEi, 62 0% 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 Notes: • Excludes legacies and athletes. • Spikiness in distribution due to rounding averages to integers. Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 HARV00065747 7 Model PRELIMINARY DRAFT Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 9 of 18 Odds Ratiosfor Main Effect Logistic Model High Personal Rating African American Legacy Native American High Extracurricular Rating Early Applicant High Academic Rating Hispanic z-Academic Index First Generation Class of 2008 Class of 2012 Class of 2014 Class of 2013 Class of 2011 Class of 2010 Class of 2009 Class of 2015 Average SAT II Average SAT I Unknown International Female Class of 2016 Asian Other 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 HARV00065748 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only 73 Model Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 10 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT Logit Coefficientsfor Main Effect Logistic Model High Personal Rating African American Legacy Native American High Extracurricular Rating Early Applicant High Academic Rating Hispanic z-Academic Index First Generation Class of 2008 Class of 2012 Class of 2014 Class of 2013 Class of 2011 Class of 2010 Class of 2009 Class of 2015 Average SAT II Average SAT I Unknown International Female Class of 2016 Asian Other -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 HARV00065749 Highly Confidential - Attorney's Eyes Only Methods 7 Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 11 of 18 Goal: Using various admissions ratings, how well can we approximate admit rates by race/ethnicity and the demographic composition of the admitted students pool? Strategy: • Fit a series of basic logistic regression models. • Generate fitted probabilities of admissions - given an applicant's characteristics how likely are they to be admitted (01)? • For each class, select the 2100 applicants with the highest probability of admissions as our simulated admitted class. • Examine resulting demographics and admit rates by ethnicity. Notes: • Students with no academic index are excluded from this analysis. N =,admit rate = Model 1: Academic only Academic Index Academic Rating Model 2: Add legacy and athlete Academic Index Academic Rating legacy athlete Model 3: Add personal and extracurricular Academic Index Academic Rating legacy athlete Personal Rating Extracurricular Rating Model 4: Add demographics Academic Index Academic Rating legacy athlete Personal Rating Extracurricular Rating Gender Ethnicity HARV00065750 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only Pools Student Projected AdmittedCase 1:14-cv-14176-ADB 100% - =NM 7% 6% Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 12 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT 7% 90% 8% 9% 80% 10% 70% Native American 60% •Hispanic 50% - International •African American 40% •Unknown 30% •Asian 51% 20% 44% 43% Actual •White 10% 0% Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Academics rily Legacy and Athlete Extracurricular and Personal Demographics Asian African American I nternational Hispanic N ative American Unknown White Academics Only Model 1 43.04% Legacy and Athlete Model 2 31.40% Extracurricular and Personal Model 3 25.99% Demographics Model 4 17.97% 0.67% 7.27% 2.42% 0.21% 8.02% 38.37% 1.83% 5.86% 2.62% 0.32% 2.36% 7.39% 11.12% Hiytily CUIl1udIitk1I- Attu,'iuy'b Eyeb Only 9.93% 48.03% 4.07% 0.41% 9.14% 50.63% 7.68% 9.83% 1.21% 8.11% 44.08% Actual 18.66% 10.46% 8.90% 9.46% 1.23% 8.09% 43.mw00065751 11 Projected Admit Rates Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 13 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT 20% -18% 16% 14% -II-Asian 12% -MI-African American 10% I nternational 8% • • 6% -U-Native American - -Unknown 4% 2% 0% Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Academics Only Legacy and Athlete Extracurricular and Personal Demographics Asian African American I nternational Hispanic N ative American Unknown White Academics Only Model 1 17.35% 0.75% 5.13% 2.34% 1.97% 9.45% 9.43% Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only Actual Legacy and Athlete Model 2 12.66% Extracurricular and Personal Model 3 Demographics Model 4 10.48% 7.24% 2.07% 4.14% 2.53% 2.98% 11.70% 11.81% 2.67% 5.22% 3.94% 3.81% 10.77% 12.45% 12.59% 5.42% 9.51% 11.17% 9.56% 10.84% Actual 7.63% 12.00% 6.37% 9.27% 11.43% 9.67% itriwyw065752 12 Conclusions Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 14 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT HAP V00065753 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only 131 Possible Explanations Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 15 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT HARV00065754 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only The Personal Rating: Numeric value doesn't capture full picture of applicant Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 16 of 18 Inputs PRELIMINARY DRAFT Outputs SAT Scores Reader classifies student Academic Rating GPA Calculation performed > Academic Index Alumni Interview Teacher Ratings Reader classifies student Personal Rating Guidance Counselor Ratings Application Essay? Academic Index SAT Scores +GPA Accounts for 98% of the variation in Academic Index. Academic Index is a weighted average. Academic Rating SAT Scores +GPA Personal Rating School Support + Alumni Interviews Accounts for 70% of the variation in Academic Rating. Can't explain some of the variation because Academic Rating data doesn't include the granuality provided by +and -. Also potentially some noise due to readers Accounts for 20% of the variation in Personal Rating. Inputs of Teacher Evaluations, Guidance Counselor Evaluations, and Alumni Interviews don't fully explain how Personal Ratings are assigned. Don't have any numeric rating of personal statement. RV00065755 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only 75 Dockets: Differences in Admit Rates by Region not Explained by Athletes and IegcAeRAFT Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 17 of 18 Admit Rates by Region for White and Asian Non-Athlete, Non-Legacy Applicants, Classes of2007-2016 Percent Asian Total Applicants tr) CO 8 a) CI) ▪ •Asian •White Midwest and Southwest 1 1 Massachusetts Northeast and Atlantic CA and Northwest -yr 39% 28% 25% 24% 23% 20% 20% 20% 42,033 12,165 31,706 22,000 21,373 17,161 31,135 15,733 •Total Notes: • Excludes legacies and athletes. HARV00065756 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only 7.61 Other Possibilities Case 1:14-cv-14176-ADB Document 421-145 Filed 06/15/18 Page 18 of 18 PRELIMINARY DRAFT •Information lost by not recording plusses and minuses. •Yield considered when admitting students? • Other factors not used in models: •Children faculty/staff •Search for socioeconomic diversity • High school quality/opportunities open to student • Dockets HARV00065757 Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only 17