Colorado Political Climate Survey Topline Election Report October 2018 Carey E. Stapleton Survey Lead E. Scott Adler Director Anand E. Sokhey Associate Director About the Study: American Politics Research Lab The American Politics Research Lab (APRL) is housed in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado Boulder. APRL is a non-partisan academic unit that supports basic research, educational activities, and public engagement on issues related to American politics. Lab faculty, student fellows, and affiliates pursue scholarly activities over a broad range of topics, utilizing a wide variety of research methodologies and analysis. Current lab projects include research on political behavior, state and local politics, and political agendas and recurring legislation in the U.S. Congress. The Lab is also home to the annual Colorado Political Climate Survey. APRL hosts a seminar series that includes talks by lab associates as well as distinguished scholars doing work related to the study of American politics. Colorado Political Climate Survey In October 2018, the American Politics Research Lab (APRL) conducted the third annual Colorado Political Climate (CPC) survey. The CPC is a survey of the political and policy attitudes of Coloradans. The study is designed to gauge the public’s political and partisan leanings, their opinions on a number of key issues facing the state, their attitudes toward major statewide and national political figures, and the outlook for the 2018 election. Methodology The sample is representative of registered voters in Colorado. It consists of 800 individual responses and has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.5%. The margin of error for subgroups is larger due to smaller sample sizes. The survey instrument was developed by APRL in the fall of 2018; it was administered online to a panel of Coloradans by the company YouGov between October 12-17, 2018. To generalize to the state of Colorado, YouGov employed a weighting procedure based on demographics and political characteristics. We use YouGov’s weights for all analysis. The average time it took a respondent to complete the survey was approximately 10 minutes. The sampling methodology employed by YouGov for the 2018 CPC survey can be found: https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attachedfiles/yougov_sampling_2018.pdf 1 Acknowledgements: We would like to acknowledge the undergraduate students in the PSCI 3155: Survey Design and Analysis class at the University of Colorado Boulder, who provided valuable assistance in the development and execution of this survey. We also wish to thank the CU Boulder College of Arts and Sciences, Undergraduate Education Development Program for its financial support. American Politics Research Lab Department of Political Science University of Colorado Boulder 382 Ketchum Hall, UCB 333 Boulder, CO 80309 https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/ 2 Table of Contents Summary: 4 Colorado and the Nation 1. Colorado Gubernatorial Race 2. Generic Congressional Ballot 3. Approval of Figures, Political Institutions, and the Economy a. President (Trump) b. Congress c. Supreme Court d. Economy 4. Amendments and Propositions a. Proposition 112 b. Amendment 74 c. Amendment 73 d. Proposition 111 e. Amendment Y f. Amendment 75 5 5 6 Appendix: Survey Demographics Gender Education Race Age Partisanship 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Error! Bookmark not defined. 3 Summary: National polls suggest a strong year for Democrats in House races around the country – it is often the case that the President’s party takes losses in midterm elections. Our results comport with that narrative, as we see Democrats with a 9-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. This is set against perceptions of a strong national and state economy. The survey came out of the field just as ballots were hitting mailboxes in Colorado. The results show Jared Polis with a 12-point lead over Walker Stapleton in the gubernatorial contest. While there are expected patterns when looking at vote preference by partisanship, we see almost identical support for Polis among men and women. President Trump’s approval in Colorado hovers around 40%, mirroring national trends. He remains very popular among Republicans, and very unpopular among Democrats. Overall, we see some evidence of a modest gender divide on approval of the President, with more women expressing disapproval. Approval of Congress and the Supreme Court mirror other partisan trends. Congressional approval remains low overall, but we see considerably higher approval of the lawmaking body among Republicans than among Democrats. Approval of the Supreme Court hovers around 50%, with dramatic differences by partisanship – nearly ¾ of Republicans approve, while roughly 2/3 of Democrats disapprove. We polled four constitutional amendments and two propositions that are on the ballot this November. Four measures look likely to pass (Amendments Y, 73, 74 and Proposition 111), one looks likely to fail (Amendment 75), and one remains too close to call (Proposition 112). As elsewhere, we see stark partisan differences on Proposition 112, with Democrats offering considerably more support, and Republicans considerably more opposition. What follows are tables reporting survey data on only 2018 election-related items. An extended report including additional items on policies and policy-makers, expanded breakouts, and comparisons to previous CPC surveys will be forthcoming later this year. 4 Colorado and the Nation1 1. Colorado Gubernatorial Election Question: If the election for governor of Colorado were being held today, would you vote for... Colorado Gubernatorial Election Jared Polis Walker Stapleton Scott Helker Other Observations 54% 42% 3% 2% 800 Colorado Gubernatorial Election by Gender Jared Polis Walker Stapleton Scott Helker Other Observations Male Female 53% 42% 4% 2% 387 54% 42% 3% 2% 413 Colorado Gubernatorial Election by Partisanship Jared Polis Walker Stapleton Scott Helker Other Observations 1 Democrats Republicans Independents Other 98% 1% 1% 0% 292 3% 96% 0% 1% 256 51% 36% 8% 5% 210 62% 24% 13% 1% 42 Note, that due to rounding, each column may not sum exactly to 100% 5 2. Generic Congressional Election Question: If the 2018 election for the U.S. House of Representatives in your congressional district were held today, would you vote for the... Generic Congressional Ballot Democrat Republican Other Observations 53% 44% 3% 800 Generic Congressional Ballot by Gender Male 51% 45% 4% 387 Democrat Republican Other Observations Female 56% 42% 3% 413 Generic Congressional Ballot by Partisanship Democrat Republican Other Observations Democrats 100% 0% 0% 292 Republicans 2% 96% 1% 256 6 Independents 50% 43% 7% 210 Other 60% 27% 12% 42 3. Approval of Figures, Political Institutions and the Economy Question: How much do you approve or disapprove of the way each of the following is handling their job? a. Presidential Approval (Trump Approval) Presidential Approval Ratings Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations 23% 19% 7% 50% 2% 41% 57% 800 Presidential Approval Ratings by Gender Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations Male 24% 19% 5% 49% 3% 43% 54% Female 21% 18% 9% 51% 1% 40% 60% 387 413 Presidential Approval Ratings by Partisanship Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations Democrats 1% 2% 6% 91% 1% 3% 97% Republicans 53% 36% 6% 4% 1% 89% 10% Independents 17% 23% 10% 46% 4% 39% 57% Other 21% 11% 6% 59% 3% 31% 65% 292 256 210 42 7 b. Congress Congressional Approval Ratings Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations 2% 17% 30% 43% 7% 19% 73% 800 Congressional Approval Ratings by Gender Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations Male 1% 15% 30% 50% 3% 16% 80% Female 3% 19% 31% 36% 11% 22% 67% 387 413 Congressional Approval Ratings by Partisanship Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations Democrats 1% 8% 25% 60% 5% 9% 85% Republicans 5% 35% 33% 18% 9% 40% 51% Independents 0% 10% 33% 47% 10% 10% 80% Other 0% 8% 40% 48% 4% 8% 88% 292 256 210 42 8 c. Supreme Court Supreme Court Approval Ratings Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations 9% 39% 29% 10% 13% 48% 39% 800 Supreme Court Approval Ratings by Gender Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations Male 8% 38% 35% 10% 9% 46% 45% Female 10% 39% 23% 11% 16% 49% 34% 387 413 Supreme Court Approval Ratings by Partisanship Strongly Approve Approve Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Approval Combined Disapproval Combined Observations Democrats 2% 23% 44% 18% 13% 25% 62% Republicans 24% 54% 13% 0% 9% 77% 13% Independents 2% 44% 25% 12% 16% 46% 38% Other 8% 28% 39% 14% 10% 37% 53% 292 256 210 42 9 d. Economy Question: How would you rate the economic conditions in the United States as of today? State of National Economy Excellent Good Fair Poor Bad Observations 17% 42% 25% 11% 5% 800 State of National Economy by Partisanship Excellent Good Fair Poor Bad Observations Democrats 3% 36% 39% 15% 7% Republicans 38% 49% 10% 3% 1% Independents 12% 44% 24% 13% 7% Other 15% 32% 17% 29% 8% 292 256 210 42 Question: How would you rate the economic conditions in Colorado as of today? State of Colorado Economy Excellent Good Fair Poor Bad Observations 19% 49% 21% 8% 3% 800 State of Colorado Economy by Partisanship Excellent Good Fair Poor Bad Observations Democrats 18% 49% 24% 9% 1% Republicans 27% 49% 15% 7% 3% Independents 13% 49% 24% 9% 5% Other 11% 45% 28% 12% 3% 292 256 210 42 10 Amendments and Propositions Question: As you may know, there are several different propositions and amendments on the Colorado ballot this year. We would like to know how you would vote on a few of these if the election were held today. a. Proposition 112 Question: Proposition 112 would require that new oil and gas wells be located at least 2,500 feet from occupied buildings and other areas designated as by the state of Colorado as vulnerable. Current state law requires that oil and gas wells be 500 feet from homes and 1,000 feet from schools. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this proposition? Proposition 112 Yes No Observations 52% 48% 800 Proposition 112 by Partisanship Yes No Observations Democrats 73% 27% 292 Republicans 25% 75% 256 11 Independents 51% 49% 210 Other 72% 28% 42 b. Amendment 74 Amendment 74 would require the Colorado government to provide just compensation to private property owners when a government law or regulation reduces the fair market value of their property. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this proposition? Amendment 74 Yes No Observations 63% 37% 800 Amendment 74 by Partisanship Yes No Observations Democrats 60% 40% 292 Republicans 68% 32% 256 12 Independents 65% 35% 210 Other 51% 49% 42 c. Amendment 73 Amendment 73 would establish a new tax bracket system that would raise taxes on individuals making more than $150,000 per year as well as increase the corporate income tax rate to create the Quality Public Education Fund. This fund would then spend the additional money generated by the increased taxes to fund preschool through 12th grade public education. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this proposition? Amendment 73 Yes No Observations 58% 42% 800 Amendment 73 by Partisanship Yes No Observations Democrats 86% 14% 292 Republicans 25% 75% 256 13 Independents 55% 45% 210 Other 73% 27% 42 d. Proposition 111 Proposition 111 would reduce the total interest that payday lenders can charge their clients from a current maximum of 45% to 36% interest while removing other fees that payday lenders often charge their clients. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this proposition? Proposition 111 Yes No Observations 84% 16% 800 Proposition 111 by Partisanship Yes No Observations Democrats 93% 7% 292 Republicans 71% 29% 256 14 Independents 90% 10% 210 Other 77% 23% 42 e. Amendment Y Amendment Y would change how Congressional district lines are drawn so that an independent commission, not controlled by one political party or the other, would be in charge of drawing the new district lines. Currently, the state legislature has the power to redraw Congressional districts. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this proposition? Amendment Y Yes No Observations 78% 22% 800 Amendment Y by Partisanship Yes No Observations Democrats 89% 11% 292 Republicans 64% 36% 256 15 Independents 79% 21% 210 Other 76% 24% 42 f. Amendment 75 Amendment 75 would change how campaigns can be financed in Colorado so that if a candidate for state office spends 1 million dollars or more of their own money than the other candidates for that office can accept 5 times more money from donors then currently allowed by law. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this proposition? Amendment 75 Yes No Observations 39% 61% 800 Amendment 75 by Partisanship Yes No Observations Democrats 42% 58% 292 Republicans 39% 61% 256 16 Independents 34% 66% 210 Other 39% 61% 42 Appendix: Demographics Partisanship Democrats Republicans Independents Other Observations 37% 32% 26% 5% 800 Gender Male Female Observations 48% 52% 800 Age Groups 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Observations 17% 30% 32% 22% 800 Education No High School High School Some College Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree Post-graduate Observations 2% 19% 23% 9% 30% 17% 800 17 Race/Ethnicity White Black Hispanic Asian Native American Middle Eastern Mixed Other Observations 85% 3% 7% 1% 1% 0% 3% 1% 800 18