TO:
FROM:
RE:
DATE:

CLF Donors
Corry Bliss, Executive Director
The Green Wave Grows and Political Environment Improves
October 18, 2018

With 19 days until the election, there are two competing factors at play: the green wave is growing, but the political
environment continues to improve with new races coming on the map for Republicans and off the map for Democrats.
Map Moving in the Right Direction
The polling momentum that began with the Supreme Court confirmation hearings has continued, and the environment
has continued to improve. In the last two days, Democrats cancelled ads in two key races—including one currently held by
a Democrat—while CLF engaged in two new races where Democrats had been favored.
Democrats abandoned MN-08, one of Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities, and NE-02, a district that switched parties in
both 2014 and 2016.
• In MN-08, CLF has had a field office open for six months, went on TV just days after the primary in August, and
has successfully forced Democrats to abandon this race.
• CLF began knocking on doors in NE-02 in February 2017 and started advertising shortly after Labor Day. NE-02
was CLF’s first field office in the nation and has made more than 2 million voter contacts.

NE-02 ad

MN-08 ad

IA-01 ad

FL-27 ad

In IA-01 and FL-27, Democrats have struggled to capitalize on significant financial advantages. CLF added $1 million in
television and digital spending in IA-01 and began Spanish-language advertising in FL-27 as Democrat Donna Shalala has
failed to gain traction against Republican Maria Elvira Salazar.
New CLF Polling:
In NE-02, Don Bacon leads by 11 on the ballot
In MN-08, Pete Stauber leads by 8 on the ballot

In IA-01, Rod Blum leads by 4 on the ballot
In FL-27, Maria Elvira Salazar is tied on the ballot

The Green Wave Continues to Grow
Third quarter finance reports show Democratic challengers outraised 92
Republican incumbents and 33 Republican incumbents trail in cash on hand.
Democratic candidates have placed $58 million more on television than
Republican candidates in the top 60 races. The Congressional Leadership Fund’s
donors remain enthused— CLF raised an additional $10 million in the last two weeks
and is on pace to exceed $150 million for the cycle.

“Democratic candidates
for Congress have
raised a recordshattering $1 billion
this election”

Moving Forward
The Democrats’ green wave is challenging, but we don’t need to outraise the Democrats, we only need to raise
enough to compete and turn out our voters. CLF will continue to fight these battles district-by-district and fill gaps
where able. Twenty races that will decide the majority remain a coin-flip.