TABLE OF CONTENTS

•
•
•

Executive

•

Imperial's

•
•

Current

summary

Introduction
Global

5

Climate

Change - The Uncertainties

Research
Research

Capabilities

9

Contributions

Research
Opportunities
Climate Change - Hydrologic

9

13
13

Systems

Mitigation
Opportunities
Energy Efficiency
and Alternative
CO2 Sinks

•

6

IOL Commitments

Fuels

14
15
16

- 2 -

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In March,
global

1990,

Imperial

warming

dialogue

that

with

Imperial

's

global

research

a

science,

possible

activities

the

is

effect

summary

an

scientific

be

used

energy

findings

on

"to

to

on potential
determine,

in

community,

how

address

potential

perspective.

the

status

opportunities

This

of

for

paper

climate

Imperial

change

and

other

company can support.

and

models

of

the

can

from

paper

commitment

and

research

little

scientific

a

resources

issues"

provides

a discussion

included

governments

warming

There

published

controversy

the

basic

uncertainty
used

to

uncertainties,

over

scientific

is

existence

the

to

of

greenhouse

on the

Great

results

from

To

reduce

the

science

of

climate

emerging

global

change.

focus

a

involved.

extrapolation

climate

important

of

principles

surrounds
predict

it

the

change.

Imperial

will

retain

warming

science

to be in

government/industry
help

design

university

research

research

which

As

of

sponsor

and

and implement
The

its

the

company

or participate

to

scientific

contribution,

in several

specific
-

3 -

the

to

assistance

and adaptive

refocus

program

knowledgeably

internal

mitigative

also

the

contribute

provide

best

major

research

monitor
to

to

will

grant

addresses

to

a position

panels

strategies.

part

resources

direction

support

climate

to

response
of

its

change

uncertainties.

Imperial
climate

will
change

undertake,
science

 programs and projects as outlined in the commitments section of

this report.

INTRODUCTION

In

March,

1990,

discussion
a

paper

national

The

scientific

This
status

in

climate

paper

World

views

was tabled

at

Geneva

is

enhance

that
the

agriculture,

forest,
and island

report

it
that

in the

natural
in the

However,

of a large

is
the

company

public

and

future.

effect
This

fisheries
communities

apparent
science

from

could

and water

possible

research

political

interest

on

Climate

and

scientists,
tenor

lead

have

significant

sea

Change

report,

greenhouse
to

resources

in

Program

and

detailed

and understanding
- 5 -

findings

The general
of

energy

Imperial's

of international

from changing

the

an

An IPCC scientific

concentrations

the

can be used

Environmental

of 1990.

greenhouse

and

key

can support.

Panel

number

fall

of

the

Nations

seven

from

science,

Organization.

increasing

temperatures

coastal

United

climate

its

resources

issues"

intergovernmental

Meteorological
the

change

global
of

to

government

governments

research

a summary

growing

by the

reflecting

report

with

activities

the

formed

dialogue

of
one

a

contribution

federal

issue
as

provides

to

the

warming

climate

response

change,
was

in

published

as its

included

global

and other

1988,

by

how Imperial's

of

opportunities

the

determine,

(Imperial)

warming

environmental

potential

perspective.
the

global

paper

community,

address

(IPCC)

growing

"to

Limited

initiated

discussion

commitments

In

on potential

the

change.

on

Oil

discussion

concerning

to

Imperial

of the

gases
higher

will
global

impacts

on

and on low lying
level.

chapters
of global

in
climate

the

IPCC

change

 and

impacts

Global
It

are

Climate

is

that
has

industrial

of

concentration

of

temperature

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increasing

since

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were

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co 2

in

there

little

effect

scientific

models

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atmosphere

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past

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predict

sensitivity

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mean

of

160,000

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rise,

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use

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the

trend

with

the

existence

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not,
in

of

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a natural

involved,
of

change.

to

land

co 2 .

extrapolation

average

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on

It

principles

a range

of

warm periods

the

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shown

years.

the

climate

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a

of

over

the

been

shows

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in

based

has

concentrations

uncertainty,

the

it

(CO ) in
2

changes

Further,

analyses,

surrounds
to

remain.

beginning

to

demonstrated

and

used

still

dioxide

the

attributable

controversy

uncertainty

carbon

fuels.

by elevated

is

greenhous~

over

empirically

caused

is

fossil

ice

record

however,

•

concentration

and

burning
and

climate

the

and many uncertainties

The Uncertainties

revolution,

the

While

--

been

measurements

past

evolving

Change

certain

atmosphere

and

still

There

of

results

from

is:

three,

in

temperature
increase

great

in

relating
increase

greenhouse

gases.

•

Even

greater

uncertainty

regarding

regional

climate

impacts.

•

Uncertainty

on the

timing

-

of the

6 -

expected

climate

change.

 Uncertainty

in

forecast

future

greenhouse
natural
of

emissions

and

ocean

and

ocean

circulation

terrestrial

vegetation,

is

For

enhance
of

not

an

inability

growth,

incomplete

understanding

instance,

current

Thus

or chemistry,

knowledge

exchange

from

from

population

ecosystems.

would

processes

arises

to

energy

rates

of

use

and

of

the

releases

(CH4 ) generated
by human activities,
represent
of the natural
fluxes
between the atmosphere,
the

methane

percentages

yet

or in the
or

oceanic

and

gases

to
between

changes

life

mitigate

sufficient

of greenhouse

small

in

cycle

the

the

world

of terrestrial

greenhouse

terrestrial

account

the

effect.

biogeochemical

quantitatively

atmosphere,

the

for

the

oceans

and

vegetation.

Major
the

and

systems.

small

Current

projections

human activities,

climate

co2

land

model

int~rnational
role

of clouds

because

they

modellers.

scientific

programs

and oceans

in current

represent

major

To predict

system,

the

sources

effectively

science

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climate

for

the

of

behaviour
on

address

and climate

of uncertainty

based

to

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the

climate

the

climate

observation

and

modelling.

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has

control

been

learned

knowledge
cloud
climate

the

earth's
in

concerning

types

will

the

radiative
past

the

be required

and

few years,

distribution
to

provide

models.

- 7 -

heat

budgets.

significant
and

much

improvement

properties

adequate

While

of

in

different

representations

in

 In

the

case

of

ocean

research,

heat

mediating

role

heat

transport

and air-sea

More

important

required
gain

that

limit

change

. it

chemical

and

of

or

the

yet

the

change,

current

of

that

models

to

climate

certain

many

important

the

change,
of

are

we can

contain
for

guides

assessments

suitability

and

data

so

representations

of future

the

circulation

models,

reliable

of

be sought.

climate

of

meaningful

is

important

in

require

to

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sciences
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order

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to

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making

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important

adaptive

strategies

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relative

costs

and
cause

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hydrosphere
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and

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year

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and benefits.

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the

and

investigate

research

establish

physical,

understand

and internationally

due to

to

to

fundamental

geosphere

better

research

environment

on the

needed

biosphere,

strategy

interdisciplinary

also

not

ocean

will

of

incidence

between

earth,

is

fluxes

and approximate
are

global

capability.

biological

interactions

establish

of

understanding

change.

Therefore,

will

their

develop

climate

planet

in

to

climate

It

predictions

or regional

difficult

energy

confirm

They

magnitude

oceans,

verification

parameters

phenomena.

the

than

confidence

adjustable

of

a much better

8 -

directed
range

on mitigative
of

options

and

and
their

 Imperial's

Research

Capabilities

Imperial's

research

in

production.

Refinery

products,
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from

main

Both

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Calgary

energy

petroleum

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Sarnia

facilities.

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change.

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support,

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energy
has

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in place

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- 9 -

its

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 The purpose
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temperature

all

are

older

- 12 -

less

timing

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deposits;

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Research

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-

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gas

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but

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is

vapour.

small

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of the total
1 to 2 percent

":"' 13

and clouds.

depending

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80+ percent

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scientists

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water

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principal

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presence

effects

contribute

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Systems

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natural

or

exists,

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greenhouse

effect

at

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to

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natural

Together,

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of appropriate

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Even

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Change

present

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research

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needed

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A continuum

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 The

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- 14 -

emissions

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atmosphere

As

explained

underground

of

nitrogen

movement

and

on

the

oxides

ozone

formation

(NOx) emissions

of ozone

precursors

climate

response

on the

with

conventional

development

of

alternative

fuels.

is

reservoirs,

disposal

on the

one

gas

and

needed

to
to

from

the

upper

changes

in

of ozone.

case

the

is

to

the

capture
or

in

of

into

fuels,

suitable

engine

alternatives
and

inject

subterranean

Imperial's

special

the
saline

companion

co

, technology
exists
to
2
reservoirs.
The key features
- 15 -

attention

lubricants

to

remove

co

into
2
aquifers.

paper

on

permanently
of this

must

for

co

2
depleted

the

be

vehicles

from

the

oil

and

underground
store

strategy

co
are:

2

in

 1)

in

the

short

fossil-fuel
oil

burning

upgrading

underground
cost

of

term,

only

large

electrical

utility

disposal

must
can

be

be

sources

plants,

can

facilities)
reservoirs

point

be
at

recovered

fertilizer

considered;

close

hand;

in

co2

of

an

and heavy
suitable

2)

and

part

3)

enhanced

(e.g.

oil

of

the

recovery

scheme.

Imperial

is

carried

out

contributing
by

the

Authority

to

Alberta.

The study

and the

the

Alberta

evaluate

costs

to

the

funding
Oil

Sands

potential

will

also

of building

of

for

examine

Research

and

underground

co2

the

and operating

a two year

best

the

available

study

being

Technology
disposal

. in

technology

needed

facilities.

the

emerging

IOL Commitments
Imperial

•

~s committed

Retain

to

internal

warming

the

resources

science

so

knowledgeably

help

response

•

design

to

that

to

government/industry
to

following:

we

are

able

policy

public
panels;

and

monitor

and to

implement

the

contribute

development;

provide
best

to

global

internal

mitigative

to

assistance
and

adaptive

strategies.

Participate

as

government

group

part
to

Mackenzie-Peace-Athabaska

of

a

coordinated

investigate
basin.

- 16 -

the

industry,
impact

university,

of warming

on the

 •

Sponsor

a study

southern

B.C.

variability

of
in

in

the

an

the

recent

attempt
Halocene

geological
to

past

evaluate

period

in

the

and

its

an

natural
impact

area

of

climate
on natural

flora.

•

•

Develop

an improved

fate

sea

of

Undertake

hydrates

further

warming.

Refocus

the

to

support

scientific

in a warmed

a detailed

on methane

•

ice

understanding

direction
climate

analysis
to

of

earth

of

determine

the

- 17 -

impact

how they

research

uncertainties.

ice

dynamics

and

the

scenario.

of Imperial's
change

sea

university
which

of
will

global

warming

contribute

research
addresses

to

grants
major