DRAFT Subject to Revision A Brief Discussion of Lake Okeechobee Pollution G. Goforth 1 – 9/18/2018 The source of the toxic blue green algae currently damaging estuarine ecosystems, regional economies and human health is a very polluted Lake Okeechobee 2(Phlips 2018). As a result of this pollution, on July 2, 2018, NOAA satellite image indicated that 90 percent of the surface of Lake Okeechobee was covered with a blue green algae bloom (Figure 1). Members of every branch of Florida government, state agencies and others have known about the source of this pollution for almost 50 years: excessive levels of nutrient loads in stormwater from the surrounding watershed. Lake Okeechobee is one of the largest lakes in the United States, with a surface area of approximately 730 square miles and an average depth of approximately 9 ft. The watershed that contributes flow and nutrients to Lake Okeechobee is approximately 5,400 square miles in size and consists of nine hydrologic sub-watersheds (Figure 2). Only 12 percent of the watershed is residential or built-up, while fifty percent is agricultural, with the rest primarily in wetlands and other natural lands (SFWMD 2018) (Figure 3). The lake is almost completely enclosed by a 143-mile earthen dam (the Herbert Hoover Dike) with 36 major water strutures that control flow into and out of the lake. Fisheating Creek is the only remaining unregulated tributary to the lake. Water quality studies of the lake and watershed began in the 1950s, when the lake began to show signs of increasing eutrophication (Federico et al. 1981). Activities designed to reduce the pollution entering the lake began more than 4 decades ago as state and federal agencies conducted research, monitored water flow and water quality, established regulatory (i.e., permitting) programs, constructed regional storage and treatment systems, offered extensive dairy buyouts, and assisted agricultural landowners with best management practices (BMPs) (Table 1). However, despite understanding the consequences of watershed pollution and lake conditions, the state continues to allow landowners to discharge high levels of nutrients with little to no enforcement, and the pollution of Lake Okeechobee and the estuaries continues. The water quality of the lake is at an all-time crisis level, and human health is suffering as polluted lake water is discharged to the estuaries. For calendar year 2017, the phosphorus loading to the lake approached 2.3 million pounds, the highest level ever recorded, and the 5-yr average phosphorus loading to the lake was more than 5 times the pollution allocation established for the watershed. This pollution target is called the “Total Maximum Daily Load” or “TMDL.” The result: an algae bloom covered 90 percent of the lake this summer (NOAA 2018). 1 Gary Goforth, LLC. Stuart, Florida 34997 Nutrient loading to the estuaries from local stormwater runoff is also excessive, however toxic algae blooms occur almost exclusively in association with large discharges from Lake Okeechobee (LaPointe et al. 2015, Perry 2018, Evens 2018, TCPalm 2016, TCPalm 2018a, TCPalm 2018b). 2 1 DRAFT Subject to Revision In addition, the state’s annual “progress report” on efforts to reduce pollution of the lake underestimates the actual loading to the lake. For the last two years the FDEP has published reports indicating phosphorus loading to the lake has decreased – yet these claims conflict with the measured loads to the lake, e.g., the average load measured in 2017 was 60% higher than reported by FDEP. Figure 1. On July 2, 2018, 90 Percent of Lake Okeechobee Was Covered with blue-green algae Bloom (from NOAA) 2 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 2. The Lake Okeechobee Watershed (from 2018) 2013 Seuth Flericla Envirenrnental Report 'IJelur'ne I Chapter BB Sumllr Hennande Lana Fill-tin Rn?il Line-II? Han-stee- - EE ghlan - be Earn-ate Lewd I- Shun-m Rivers Extends Cur-1L5- Bturltl? Elisa-n IEI-IsundriniI El Em Lihl Gunshot!- Flehea?ng?leek - Indian Pam'- use lumen-age Lei-er Resumes - south Lake Okeechobee Taylnr madam-hen snugh Upper memes Wm Lm mans? Hamln- E3 Ugh. 'ueu Culilgr Figure LOW detailing rnajer hydrelegie features, subwatersheds, drainage basins {black labels indicate basins]. DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 3. Land use distribution in the Lake Okeechobee Watershed (from SFWMD 2018). Historical Inflows to Lake Okeechobee (1955-2017) Historical surface 3 inflows to the lake can be separated into two timeframes: 1. Prior to 1983 2. From 1983 to the present Prior to 1983, state and federal activities were completed that fundamentally altered the natural hydrologic regime of Lake Okeechobee. These included construction of shallow and then major dikes to prevent overflow to the south, construction of major diversion canals to send lake overflow to the east and west coasts, construction of major water control structures around the Lake, channelization of the Kissimmee River, and implementation of numerous lake operating schedules. From 1955 to 1982 stormwater runoff containing excessive levels of phosphorus and nitrogen from the South Sub-watershed was routinely discharged into the lake 4. In response to litigation 3 Surface inflows exclude direct rainfall on the lake. The South Sub-watershed includes the EAA, the S-4 / Industrial Canal basin and discharges from the Ch. 298 Districts along the southern shore of the lake. The major water control structures south of the Lake began sending 4 4 DRAFT Subject to Revision concerning the nitrogen pollution of the lake from the South Sub-watershed, the state issued a Temporary Operating Permit calling for reduced inflows from the S-2 and S-3 pump stations 5. The resulting Interim Action Plan was instituted in 1979, however a severe drought and low lake levels during 1981-82 resulted in significant water supply back pumping that partially negated the flow reductions. By the end of 1982 the full effect of the diversion away from the lake associated with the Interim Action Plan was realized, and hence, that year serves as the breakpoint in this analysis. Reliable flow records for these structures began in 1963, however, routine nutrient data were not available until May 1972. Using available flow records and assuming consistent average concentrations, it can be estimated that nutrient loads from the South Sub-watershed during 1958 to 1982 was approximately 172 million pounds of nitrogen and 4.3 million pounds of phosphorus. Using similar assumptions, it is estimated that during the same period, approximately 68 million pounds of nitrogen and 2.7 million pounds of phosphorus was conveyed in water supply and regulatory releases from the Lake to the South Sub-watershed and the Everglades. By comparison of the load going into the lake and coming from of the lake yields a net load to the Lake of almost 104 million pounds of nitrogen and 1.6 million pounds of phosphorus for the period 1958 to 1982. Some of this load from the South may reside in the sediments today. Monthly flow and nutrient load data for all of the major inflows and outflows began in May 1972 are available from the SFWMD (SFWMD 2018b). Between 1973 and 1982, flows from the EAA and the remainder of the South Sub-watershed made up approximately 16 percent of the total lake inflow (Figure 4). However, due to the elevated nutrient concentrations of this runoff, nitrogen loads from the South Sub-watershed made up 43 percent of the total nitrogen entering the lake (Figure 5). With 49 active dairies, the Taylor Creek / Nubbin Slough Subwatershed was the single largest source of phosphorus with 34 percent of the total lake inflow loads for the period 1973-1982 (Figure 6). Flows entering the lake from the Upper Kissimmee Sub-watershed (i.e., that area from Lake Kissimmee north to Orlando) and the Lower Kissimmee Sub-watershed (Kissimmee River valley) during this time period comprised 45 percent of the inflows to the lake, 21 percent of the nitrogen loads and 22 percent of the phosphorus loads. From 1983 to the present, the flow to the lake from the EAA has been reduced by approximately 82 percent compared to pre-1983. Between 1983 and 2017, flows from the South Sub-watershed made up approximately 5 percent of the total lake inflow, 15 percent of runoff from the EAA in the late 1950s: hurricane gate structure No. 5 (HGS-5) was turned over to the state in 1955 (later replaced with structure S-352); pump station S-2 was accepted in 1957; pump station S-3 was accepted in 1958. 5 The nutrient laden EAA runoff previously entering the lake through S-2 and S-3 was subsequently diverted south to the Water Conservation Areas, exacerbating the nutrient pollution of the Everglades. 5 DRAFT Subject to Revision the total nitrogen entering the lake and 7 percent of the total phosphorus entering the lake. Since 1982, approximately 56 million pounds of nitrogen was discharged into the Lake from the South Region, while about 86 million pounds of nitrogen was conveyed in water supply and regulatory releases from the Lake to the South Region and the Everglades, yielding a net load from the Lake of approximately 30 million pounds. Despite the diversion of most of the EAA runoff away from the lake, the average annual inflow to the lake from all basins has increased by about 9 percent since 1982. Approximately 50 percent of the flow entering the lake comes from the Upper Kissimmee and Lower Kissimmee Sub-watersheds, along with 35 percent of the nitrogen loads and 31 percent of the phosphorus loads 6. A wide range of state and federal nutrient control programs have been implemented in the Lake Okeechobee Watershed (Table 1). As a result of a lawsuit filed by Earthjustice against the USEPA, in August 2001 the State developed a total maximum daily load (TMDL) of phosphorus for the lake’s watershed, established specifically to reduce the frequency of algal blooms in the lake. State legislation (the 2000 Lake Okeechobee Protection Act 373.4595, F.S.) established a January 2015 deadline for achieving compliance with the TMDL. In December 2014, the Department adopted the Lake Okeechobee Basin Management Action Plan (BMAP) for total phosphorus, however the BMAP failed to identify sufficient measures to achieve the TMDL. Hundreds of millions in public funds have been spent on dairy buyouts, agricultural best management practices, regional water quality treatment projects, and other efforts. However, the state continues to allow landowners to discharge high levels of nutrients with little to no enforcement or accountability, and the pollution of Lake Okeechobee and the estuaries continues. The 2016 Florida Water Law deleted the January 2015 deadline to achieve compliance with the TMDL, and replaced it with a 20-yr timeframe tied to the BMAP. In addition, the 2016 law replaced the regulatory program that would have held individual landowners accountable for pollution from their land (i.e., the Works of the District permitting program) with the BMAP process, a process that does not hold individual landowners accountable for pollution from their land. The water quality of the lake is at an all-time crisis level, and human health is suffering as polluted lake water is discharged to the estuaries. When combined with increased runoff due in part to Hurricane Irma, it is not surprising then that during calendar year 2017 the 6 Some parties have stated that 90-95 percent of the water entering the lake comes from the “north”, with some parties specifically indicating the Upper and Lower Kissimmee Sub-watersheds. This is incorrect. The confusion stems from the FDEP permit which defines the “North Region” as containing multiple sub-watersheds, including the Upper Kissimmee, Lower Kissimmee, Taylor Creek / Nubbin Slough, Lake Istokpoga, Indian Prairie and the Fisheating Creek / Nicodemus Slough sub-watersheds. 6 DRAFT Subject to Revision phosphorus loading to the lake was the highest ever recorded – 2.3 million pounds (Figures 79). Also, the 5-yr average annual phosphorus load has steadily increased since 2010. During calendar year 2017 the phosphorus loading was the highest ever recorded, while the 5-year average annual phosphorus loading to the lake was more than 5 times the TMDL allocation for the watershed. In addition, during 2017 the concentration rose to almost 250 parts per billion, the highest observed in more than 30 years. While 5-yr flow-weighted mean nitrogen concentrations into the lake have decreased since the diversion of the EAA runoff, the average annual nitrogen loads have steadily increased since 2010. The result: an algae bloom covered 90 percent of the lake this summer (2018). In addition, the state’s annual BMAP “progress report” describing efforts to reduce pollution of the lake significantly underestimates the actual loading to the lake (Figures 10-11). For the last two years the FDEP has published reports indicating phosphorus loading to the lake has decreased – yet these claims conflict with the measured loads to the lake, e.g., the measured 5yr average annual load in 2017 was more than 60% higher than reported by FDEP 7. Other flaws in the BMAP process include: failure to identify measures that will collectively achieve the TMDL; ignores loading from over 800,000 acres of the watershed; failure to use available measured loads and instead relies on optimistic assumptions in computer models; failure to assess and report loads on a sub-watershed level that would allow identification and remediation of hot spots; failure to require field verification of BMPs before assuming they are implemented; failure to use actual BMP performance data and instead relies on optimistic assumed load reductions; failure to acknowledge the vast tonnage of nutrients being imported into the Lake Okeechobee watershed from Class AA biosolids; failure to evaluate loading trends at the subwatershed level – or the watershed level for that matter – but rather, adopts a “wait and see” approach that can only begin to make necessary corrections every 5-10 years – way too late to be effective. The FDEP and SFWMD have developed average phosphorus loading rates for each of the land uses within the Lake Okeechobee Watershed (FDEP 2014, Goforth et al. 2013). Using these unit area loading rates, the contribution of phosphorus loading from each land use can be estimated. For calendar year 2017, the distribution among the primary land uses were estimated as agriculture: 88 percent; urban and built-up: 9 percent; natural lands: 3 percent (Figure 12). These are estimates – since no land parcel specific data are available; and assumes each land use has responded uniformly to load reduction measures since the 2001-2012 Starting Period. 7 One reason for the discrepancy is that FDEP ignores the loading from the East, West and South Sub-watersheds. 7 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 4. Contribution of Inflows to Lake Okeechobee. ln? me to Lake [1938-1552] Ave rage acre feetfvr Fish eati ngCreekj' iced ern us Sleu gh BENE- Hem the' Hen-re! L?nlin'rrn'u: Him: Ta?aealn?nhem 5151 eme?ems-m Hdea?rg Ereillhl Ell?'l Hamid. Hamlin-uh Inian Prairie himPli-i: EaLahemeezluhee L-?E-ull?t untrue} mum Lahalihezhltee Eatlidu?el?eeFi-? Lake ESE- Indian prairiE ExcludeSdireEtrainfallen Lake 396 1119.5. Data from EFWMD ewe to Lake [1953-311] 2111? data are and suhectterevisien ?verage annualflew 3354,4313 acre feetfvr aylu Ereek I bbi 3 eugh TEE- ?hnteshel Bars Fi5 eati rig Creel: Nicodemus-Slough 1119i. mallet-men Datum. Ida-make ?n'rrnulim'?n' 5-151 5?1512. HE. HERE-125 him Pu'ie 3??111 EetLa?nalhezhtee menstrual; 59E. summing-haze Eaul E295 Enema-a Indian Pram Excludesdirectrainfallen Lake 1% 119.3 ?9'3 Data from DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 5. Contribution of Inflow Nitrogen Loads to Lake Okeechobee. Total Nitrogen Loads to Lake (1973-1982) Average annual load = 14,843,678 pounds/yr Lower Kissimmee 12% Upper Kissimmee 14% Taylor Creek / Nubbin Slough 8% Lake Istokpoga 3% Fisheating Creek / Nicodemus Slough 6% Indian Prairie 11% South 43% West 0% East 3% Data from SFWMD Total Nitrogen Loads to Lake (1983-2017) Average annual load = 10,800,103 pounds/yr 2017 data are preliminary and subect to revision Upper Kissimmee 25% Lower Kissimmee 10% Fisheating Creek / Nicodemus Slough 12% Taylor Creek / Nubbin Slough 8% South 15% Lake Istokpoga 8% West 1% East 6% 9 Indian Prairie 15% Data from SFWMD DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 6. Contribution of Inflow Phosphorus Loads to Lake Okeechobee. Total Phosphorus Loads to Lake (1973-1982) Fisheating Creek / Nicodemus Slough 11% Upper Kissimmee 5% Average annual load = 1,127,166 pounds/yr Lower Kissimmee 17% South 15% Taylor Creek / Nubbin Slough 34% Indian Prairie 15% East 1% West 0% Lake Istokpoga Data from SFWMD 2% Total Phosphorus Loads to Lake (1983-2017) 2017 data are preliminary and subect to revision Average annual load = 1,056,569 pounds/yr Upper Kissimmee 14% Lower Kissimmee 17% Fisheating Creek / Nicodemus Slough 11% Taylor Creek / Nubbin Slough 23% South 7% Indian Prairie 17% East 5% West 1% Lake Istokpoga 5% Data from SFWMD 10 DRAFT Subject to Revision Table 1. Summary of Nutrient Control Programs in the Lake Okeechobee Watershed (from Goforth et al. 2013). 11 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 7. Time Series of Inflow Nutrient Loads to Lake Okeechobee. Total Nitrogen Loads to Lake Okeechobee (excludes atmospheric deposition) +Annua Load ?5?yr average 25,000,000 120,000,000 '5 15,000,000 .5 3 10,000,000 3 5,000,000 Calendar Year Data from 2017 data are preliminary and subect to revision Total Phosphorus Loads to Lake Okeechobee (excludes atmospheric deposition) +Annua Load ?5?yr average 2,500,000 2,000,000 ~53 'g 1,500,000 3 3 3 1,000,000 _l 500,000 ~35 ~33 ~39 0,63 0.6) '15? 09' '19 Calendar Year Data from 201? data are preliminary and subect to revision 12 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 8. Time Series of Inflow Nutrient Concentrations to Lake Okeechobee. 13 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 9. Inflow, outflow and in-lake nutrient concentrations (SFWMD 2018). 14 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 10. Comparison of 2016 measured phosphorus loads to the lake with FDEP estimate. Figure 11. Comparison of 2017 measured phosphorus loads to the lake with FDEP estimate. 15 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 12. Estimated Calendar Year 2017 Phosphorus Loading by Land Use. The nutrient concentrations and loads vary significantly among the nine sub-watersheds. For the period since 1982, approximately 45-55 percent of the nutrient loads came from those subwatersheds directly north of the Lake (Upper Kissimmee, Lower Kissimmee and Taylor Creek/Nubbin Slough). Approximately 35 percent of the nutrient load came from the subwatersheds located northwest of the Lake (Lake Istokpoga, Indian Prairie and Fisheating Creek/Nicodemus Slough). The remaining sub-watersheds east, south and west of the Lake contributed approximately 10-20 percent of the nutrient loads. In addition, SFWMD reports that perhaps 30,000 metric tons of total phosphorus may reside in the top 10 cm of sediments of Lake Okeechobee, which creates an internal loading source that may equal or exceed the external loading source. Some parties have suggested that rewetting of newly restored wetlands of the Kissimmee River Restoration Project is largely responsible for the increased loading to the lake in 2017. This claim is not supported by the data, including: numerous sub-watersheds experienced an increase in loads during 2017 – not just the lower Kissimmee basin; the majority of the restoration project was completed starting in 2009 and has been rewetted numerous times since then; and the total restored wetland area makes up less than 3 percent of the Lower Kissimmee basin, while agricultural land uses make up more than 50 percent of the subwatershed. 16 DRAFT Subject to Revision Partial 2018 Inflows to Lake Okeechobee The following is a preliminary summary of partial 2018 flows and phosphorus loading for the period January 1 – July 31, 2018. Based on preliminary data, basins showing the greatest percent increase in 2018 inflows compared to 2017 include the Taylor Creek / Nubbin Slough (478 percent), Indian Prairie (330 percent) and Lake Istokpoga (304 percent) (Figures 13 and 14). The basin with the largest volume increase over last year is the Upper Kissimmee, with approximately 175,000 acre feet more than last year; nevertheless, the Upper and Lower Kissimmee sub-watersheds have contributed less than half of the total inflows so far this year. The basins contributing the largest phosphorus loads are Indian Prairie and Taylor Creek Nubbin Slough, which together account for almost half the phosphorus loading to the lake so far this year (Figure 15). Changes in nutrient concentrations between historical averages and 2018 are shown in Figure 16. Generally, nitrogen concentrations have been lower than average. The largest increases in phosphorus concentrations occurred in the Fisheating Creek /Nicodemus Slough and South subwatersheds. Summary: The water quality of the lake is at an all-time crisis level, and human health, the environment and the regional economy is suffering as polluted lake water is discharged to the estuaries. During calendar year 2017 the phosphorus loading was the highest ever recorded, while the 5-year average annual phosphorus loading to the lake was more than 5 times the TMDL allocation for the watershed. The result: an algae bloom covered 90 percent of the lake this summer and toxic blue green algae was transported to both the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee estuaries – endangering public health, the environment and the economies of those regions. 17 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 13. Contribution of 2018 Inflows to Lake Okeechobee. Figure 14. Comparison of Inflows to Lake Okeechobee (Jan. 1 – July 2018). 18 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 15. Preliminary Phosphorus Loads to Lake Okeechobee (Jan. 1 – July 2018) 19 DRAFT Subject to Revision Figure 16. Nutrient Concentrations for the Period 1983-2017 and 2018 (partial). 20 DRAFT Subject to Revision REFERENCES Evans, James. 2018. Personal communication. FDEP 2014. FINAL BASIN MANAGEMENT ACTION PLAN for the Implementation of Total Maximum Daily Loads for Total Phosphorus by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection in Lake Okeechobee. December 2014. FDEP 2017. Final 2016 Progress Report for the Lake Okeechobee Basin Management Action Plan. June 2017 FDEP 2018. Florida Statewide Annual Report on Total Maximum Daily Loads, Basin Management Action Plans, Minimum Flows or Minimum Water Levels, and Recovery or Prevention Strategies. June 2018. Federico, A., Dickson K., C. Katzer and Davis, F. 1981. Lake Okeechobee Water Quality Studies and Eutrophication Assessment. South Florida Water Management District Publication 81-2. May 1981. Goforth et al. 2013. Draft – Technical Support Document: Lake Okeechobee Watershed Performance Measure Methodologies. Gary Goforth, Inc., L. Hornung Consulting, Inc., Soil & Water Engineering Technology, Inc. in association with South Florida Water Management District. February 2013. Goforth 2017. DRAFT. Water Quality Assessment of the St. Lucie River Watershed – Water Year 2017. December 2017. LaPointe et al. 2015. Perry, Mark. 2018. Personal communication. Phlips, Ed. 2018. Interview with Stuart News. June 11, 2018. SFWMD 2018a. South Florida Environmental Report. March 2018. SFWMD 2018b. Excel spreadsheets containing monthly flow, nitrogen and phosphorus data. TCPalm 2016. “Scientists Agree: Lake Okeechobee Discharges not Septic Systems, Cause Algae Blooms.” July 8, 2016. TCPalm 2018a. “Algae blooms keep popping up in St. Lucie River as Lake Okeechobee discharges continue.” June 11, 2018. TCPalm 2018b. “Again: Go time for green slime.” August 22, 2018. 21