Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 29, 2018 CRUZ AHEAD BY INCHES IN TIGHT TEXAS SENATE RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; ABBOTT AHEAD 14 POINTS IN GOVERNOR’S RACE Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz clings to a narrow 51 – 46 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic challenger in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. This compares to a 54 – 45 percent Cruz likely voter lead in an October 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll. Today, O’Rourke leads 56 – 40 percent among independent voters and 96 – 2 percent among Democrats. Republicans back Cruz 96 – 3 percent. Men back the Republican 56 – 39 percent, as women go Democratic 52 – 45 percent. White voters back Cruz 67 – 30 percent. O’Rourke leads 86 – 12 percent among black voters and 60 – 36 percent among Hispanic voters. Only 3 percent of Texas likely voters remain undecided and only 2 percent of likely voters who name a U.S. Senate candidate say they might change their mind in the next eight days. “With a week to go, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz remains in front, with a slim lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. O’Rourke is within striking distance, but time is running out in a race that Democrats have hoped would deliver an upset victory that would be key to a Senate takeover,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Sen. Cruz is ahead due to his winning the ‘gender gap.’ He wins men 56 – 39 percent, while Representative O’Rourke can manage only a 52 – 45 percent edge among women.” -more- Quinnipiac University Poll/October 29, 2018 – page 2 Governor’s Race In the Texas governor’s race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 54 – 40 percent among likely voters. Gov. Abbott leads 97 – 1 percent among Republicans, while Valdez leads 88 – 7 percent among Democrats. Independent voters are divided with 47 percent for Valdez and 44 percent for Abbott. The governor leads 69 – 27 percent among white voters as Valdez leads 75 – 17 percent among black voters and 52 – 42 percent among Hispanic voters. Only 6 percent of Texas likely voters remain undecided and only 3 percent of likely voters who name a candidate for governor say they might change their mind in the next eight days. “In the governor's race, the good news for Lupe Valdez is that she has narrowed Gov. Greg Abbott's lead. The bad news is that she is still 14 points behind. It would take an historic comeback for her to win,” Brown said. From October 22 – 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,078 Texas likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 2 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lupe Valdez the Democrat or more toward Greg Abbott the Republican? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Valdez Abbott SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA Valdez Abbott SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 40% 54 1 6 1% 97 2 88% 7 1 5 47% 44 1 8 35% 59 1 5 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp 24% 71 1 4 27% 69 1 4 75% 17 1 7 52% 42 5 29% 67 3 45% 48 1 7 32% 65 1 3 21% 74 1 5 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Valdez Abbott SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA Valdez Abbott SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 28% 69 1 2 36% 60 1 3 19% 74 1 6 22% 74 4 REPUBLICAN Men Wom DEMOCRAT.. Men Wom INDEPENDENT Men Wom 2% 97 1 88% 7 5 47% 47 1 5 1% 97 2 88% 7 1 5 48% 38 1 13 AREA.................................... Dallas South East FtWrth Houstn Centrl West South Valdez Abbott SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 27% 67 1 5 44% 50 6 46% 48 6 45% 46 2 6 19% 73 8 46% 48 6 3 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Valdez Abbott Mind made up Might change DK/NA 96% 3 - 96% 4 - 97% 3 1 2. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Beto O'Rourke the Democrat or more toward Ted Cruz the Republican? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA O'Rourke Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 46% 51 1 3 3% 96 1 96% 2 2 56% 40 2 3 39% 56 2 3 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp 27% 70 2 1 30% 67 1 2 86% 12 2 60% 36 4 33% 65 2 52% 45 3 36% 62 1 2 24% 73 1 2 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom O'Rourke Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA O'Rourke Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 31% 67 1 2 40% 57 1 2 23% 73 3 1 24% 73 3 REPUBLICAN Men Wom DEMOCRAT.. Men Wom INDEPENDENT Men Wom 4% 96 1 95% 2 3 53% 44 2 2 2% 97 1 97% 3 1 61% 33 1 5 AREA.................................... Dallas South East FtWrth Houstn Centrl West South O'Rourke Cruz SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 26% 68 2 4 50% 47 3 53% 45 2 56% 40 1 3 23% 72 2 4 53% 43 1 4 4 2a. (If candidate chosen q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q2.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q2 Tot O'Rourke Cruz Mind made up Might change DK/NA 98% 2 - 98% 2 - 98% 2 - 5