The NBC
News
Midterm
Election
Briefing
Book

Midterm Elections

2018

By Carrie Dann, Mark Murray and Chuck Todd.

Other contributors include: NBC’s Ben Kamisar, Hannah Coulter and Mike Memoli

Created by the
NBC News
Political Unit

 TABLE OF CONTENTS
2018: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL………….………………..……………………………2
The House…………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………..……………………2
The Senate………………………………………………………………..………………………………………………………………………3
The governor races…………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………….…4
WHAT’S AT STAKE ……………………………………..……………………………………………………..…………………………………………5
THE TRUMP EFFECT ……………………………………..………………………………………………….……………………………………….…6
KEY ISSUES (that aren’t Trump) ……………………………………………………………………..…………………..…………..………..…7
MAJOR TRENDS, BY THE NUMBERS …………………………………………………………………..…….………..……………………….8
Female candidates……………………………………..……………………………………………….……………………………………8
Other key stats (veterans, millennials and more)……………………………………………..……………….……………..9
BARRIER BREAKERS: CANDIDATES WHO WOULD MAKE HISTORY …………………………………..…………….……………10
THE PATH TO A HOUSE MAJORITY — A ROAD MAP TO FOLLOW AS POLLS CLOSE…….………………………………….11
Seats to watch: Democrats on defense……………………..………….………………………………………………………..11
Seats to watch: The most probable flips ……………………..…………………………….………….…….………………..11
Seats to watch: The majority makers…………….………………………………………………………………..………………12
Seats to watch: Adding to a majority — the beginning of a big wave ….………………………..……..…………13
Seats to watch: Tsunami alert! ….…………………………………………………………………………………..……………….13
VIEWERS’ GUIDE (A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE TO COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME) ……….....….14
A briefer on each competitive House, Senate and governor race nationwide, including candidate
names, race ratings and political dynamics.
MORE RESOURCES
A timeline of American politics, 2017-2018.………………………………………………………………………..…………….……….40
Who have the 2020 potential Democratic contenders endorsed? ………………………………………..……….….……….43
For Senate/governor………………………………………………………………………..………….…………..………………….…43
For the House………………………………………………………………………………………..………………..….……………….…44
Past key election exit polls ……………………………………………………………………………..…………………...…..….…………..45
2016 ………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………..………………….…………….45
2010 ………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………..………………….…………….46
2006 ………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………..……………………………..…47

1

 2018: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL
THE HOUSE
What’s the big picture?
Democrats need to pick up a net of 23 U.S. House seats to take control of the chamber – which they haven’t had since
the 110th Congress of 2009-2010. Currently, Republicans hold a 235-193 advantage with seven vacancies.
Forecasters give Democrats better than a 50-50 chance of winning back the House, due to President Donald Trump’s
unpopularity, an expanded battleground map and polling showing Democrats with a lead in the generic ballot, including
in swing districts.
So Democrats will pick up seats. But it’s not a certainty they’ll hit or surpass 23 net pickups – given that much of the
battleground is on Republican turf, that Republicans have been trying to disqualify Democratic challengers race by race,
and that a humming economy could provide a boost to the party in power.
What about overtime?
It’s possible that we won’t know which party controls the U.S. House until mid- to late-November, since California has a
history of taking its time counting votes. And the Golden State is home to at least seven competitive contests.
What’s the historical context?
With just two exceptions – 1998 (after the Lewinsky scandal/impeachment) and 2002 (after 9/11) – midterm elections
typically are bad news for the party controlling the White House, underscoring how they’re usually referendums on the
sitting president.

On average, since the Truman
Era, a president's party loses
more than 28 House seats in his
*first* midterm election.
But in the six times when that
president's job approval rating
has been below 50 percent, his
party lost an average of 43.5
House seats.

SOURCES: Vital Statistics on Congress, Gallup.
Notes: Ford's first midterm election came right after he succeeded Richard Nixon in 1974; LBJ's came in 1966 three years after
succeeding Kennedy; and Truman's came in 1946 after succeeding Roosevelt. Gallup approval ratings are based on the September
before the midterm election.

2

 THE SENATE
What’s the big picture?
Republicans currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate, with the two independents (Angus King and
Bernie Sanders) caucusing with Democrats. So given that Vice President Mike Pence can break 50-50 ties, Democrats
need to pick up a net of two Senate seats to flip control of the chamber.
But Democrats have less of a chance of winning back the Senate (~20 percent) than the House (~70 percent) – due to
their difficult map, where 10 Democratic incumbents are running in states that Trump carried in 2016.
After all, it’s entirely possible that Democrats could pick up Senate seats in Arizona, Nevada and even Tennessee. But to
win back the Senate, they also have to run the table – or come close to it – in West Virginia (which Trump won by 42
points), North Dakota (36 points), Indiana (19 points) and Missouri (18 points). So they have little margin for error in
these red states.
And it’s also possible that Democrats could win the House, but lose 1-2 Senate seats because of that difficult map.
What about overtime?
If no candidate gets more than 50 percent in the “jungle primary” to succeed Sen. Thad Cochran – which features
appointed GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, Democrat Mike Espy and conservative challenger Chris McDaniel – then the Top
2 finishers will compete in a runoff on November 27. That’s five days after Thanksgiving.
And so it’s possible that Senate control could come down to the runoff, if Democrats find themselves one seat short of a
majority even after November 6.
What’s the historical context?
While presidential approval ratings are correlated to a party’s losses or gains in the House, the correlation is less strong
in the Senate, where much depends on the specific seats that are up for grabs.
Both presidents Bill Clinton (1994)
and Barack Obama (2010) saw
their party suffer significant losses
in the Senate in their first midterm
cycle — and both men had an
approval rating of under 50
percent.
But in 1982, Ronald Reagan
escaped a similar fate as
Republicans gained a Senate seat
despite Reagan’s relatively low 42
percent approval rating.

SOURCES: Vital Statistics on Congress,
Gallup. Notes: Ford's first midterm
election came right after he succeeded Richard Nixon in 1974; LBJ's came in 1966 three years after succeeding Kennedy; and
Truman's came in 1946 after succeeding Roosevelt. Gallup approval ratings are based on the September before the midterm election.

3

 THE GOVERNORS
What’s the big picture?
DEMOCRATS’ PATH TO
WINNING THE SENATE

Currently, Republicans hold 33 governorships, Democrats hold 16 and there’s
one independent (Bill Walker in Alaska).

To win control of the U.S.
Senate, Democrats need to
pick up a net of two seats –
a doable but difficult path to
the majority. Here are their
different paths:

This election cycle features 36 gubernatorial contests, giving Democrats the
chance to pull even with Republicans in governorships – particularly in key
presidential battleground states like Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio
and Wisconsin.

1. Democrats win the GOPheld Senate seats of Arizona
and Nevada – and also hold
on to ALL of their vulnerable
seats in North Dakota,
Missouri, Florida, Indiana,
Montana and West Virginia.

If no candidate in Georgia’s gubernatorial race surpasses 50 percent – there’s
a Libertarian candidate in the general election – then the top two finishers
will participate in a runoff on December 4. And there’s a case that Democrat
Stacey Abrams could be stronger in a low-turnout runoff, given the large
percentage of African-American voters in the state.

What about overtime?

Where are the races?
2. Democrats win the GOPheld Senate seats of
Arizona, Nevada AND
Tennessee, which allows
them to lose ONE Dem-held
seat (like North Dakota).

While the big Senate contests of the cycle have been talked about
exhaustively in the run up to the midterms, individual governors’ races have
gotten a little bit less attention in the national political conversation. Here’s
where the major races are taking place, per the Cook Political Report.

3. Democrats win the GOPheld Senate seats of
Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee
AND Texas, which allows
them to lose TWO Dem-held
seats.
First Read’s Top 10 Senate
takeovers (in order of
likelihood of seat switching
parties)
1. North Dakota (DHeiktamp)
2. Nevada (R-Heller)
3. Arizona (R-open)
4. Missouri (D-McCaskill)
5. Tennessee (R-open)
6. Indiana (D-Donnelly)
7. Florida (D-Nelson)
8. Montana (D-Tester)
9. Texas (R-Cruz)
10. New Jersey (DMenendez)

4

 WHAT’S AT STAKE
Which party controls the all-important investigative and intelligence committees?
In the House of Representatives, will it be a Republican (like Reps. John Duncan, R-Tenn., or Jim Jordan, R-Ohio) as the
next chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee? Or will it be Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md.,
holding the gavel? Ditto: Will it be Devin Nunes, R-Calif., staying in charge of the House Intel Committee? Or will it be
Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif.?
Will Trump filling court vacancies continue at its rapid pace? Or will it come grinding to a halt?
That's the difference between Republicans retaining control of the Senate and its Judiciary Committee, or Democrats
taking control. And that includes any Supreme Court vacancy that might take place after the midterms.
Do Obamacare repeal/replace and immigration reform get easier or harder?
If Republicans hold on to the House and pick up Senate seats, then it's possible that Obamacare repeal and replace –
which fell one vote short in 2017 – could clear the Senate next year. On the other hand, immigration reform, which has
stalled in the House, could be more likely if Democrats win the House and Senate, and if President Trump is willing to
make a deal.
Does the possibility of Trump's impeachment go up? Or down?
If special counsel Robert Mueller has the goods in his Russia investigation – and that remains an IF – then the likelihood
of impeachment goes up if Democrats control the House. On the other hand, if Republicans win in November, it's really
hard to see how a GOP-controlled Congress moves against Trump, even when it comes to oversight of Mueller's findings.
And remember as we saw with Bill Clinton in the 1990s, impeachment is one thing; removal is another…
Does Trump get a primary challenger in 2020 or not?
The midterm results could also influence whether Trump gets a Republican primary challenger. You could argue that
Republicans losing control of both the House and Senate could embolden someone – Jeff Flake? John Kasich? Ben Sasse?
– to take on Trump in 2020, no matter how quixotic that bid might be. But if Republicans hold on to both chambers,
especially as the GOP becomes more loyal to Trump, that could eliminate the discussion of a GOP primary challenger.
And which party holds the upper hand in redistricting after 2020?
This where the 2018 gubernatorial contests – as well as the races for state legislature – come into play. Republicans
holding on to their control of state governments would give them a leg up in the next round of redistricting. But
Democrats picking up governorships and control of state legislatures across the country could fundamentally change the
redistricting landscape.

5

 THE TRUMP EFFECT

As with most midterm elections, 2018 is shaping up to be a referendum on the current White House occupant: President
Donald Trump.
According to the September NBC/WSJ poll, nearly six-in-10 voters – 59 percent – said they wanted to see a “great deal”
or “quite a bit” of change from the way President Trump has been leading the country. By contrast, 40 percent said they
wanted no change/not that much/just some change.
That 59 percent wanting change is almost identical to the 62 percent who said this on the same question in November
1994 (when Republicans won control of Congress), and the 63 percent who said this in October 2010 (when the GOP
won the House and picked up six Senate seats).

What’s more, the September 2018 NBC/WSJ poll found a plurality – 42 percent – saying the message of their vote in
November will be to send a message for more Democrats to be a “check and balance” to President Trump, versus 31
percent who said it would be for more Republicans to help pass the president’s agenda.
But the same polling also suggests that Trump is firing up the 40 percent of voters who approve of his job and desire no
change. Indeed, Republicans have been closing the enthusiasm gap in recent months – a key development given that
midterm shellackings usually happen when there’s a voter drop-off for the president’s party.
And despite Trump’s unpopularity, the NBC/WSJ polls of 2018 have shown House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (with a
fav/unfav rating of 20 percent/48 percent) to be more unpopular than the president (40 percent/50 percent) – which is
why there’s so much GOP advertising focused on Pelosi.
Trump, by the way, has embraced that the 2018 election is a referendum on him. “A vote for Marsha is a vote for me,”
Trump said on October 1 in Tennessee, as he campaigned for GOP Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn. “A vote for
David [Young] is a vote for me to make America great again,” Trump said at his rally in Iowa on October 9.

6

 KEY ISSUES (that aren’t Trump)
The near-constant presence of the president in the news cycle — and the swirling controversies around Russia, Trump’s
finances and the outrage of the day — can sometimes distract from the other major issues and trends that have defined
the midterms since the beginning of the cycle. Here are some of them.
The economy — The unemployment rate is below four percent. The Dow Jones Industrial average has closed at record
highs more than a dozen times in 2018. The economy, as the president likes to say, is booming. What’s more, Americans
are pleased with the state of the economy, with a majority saying they are satisfied with it and a quarter saying they’re
“very satisfied” — the highest share in nearly 20 years.
Republicans, crediting the president’s tax and trade bills, hope that voters will link the buoyant economy to Republican
policies. But the numbers show that, at least so far, that’s not panning out. Among voters who rated the economy as a
top issue in our last NBC/WSJ poll in September, congressional preference was basically tied.
Democrats have argued that the stock-market indicators aren’t translating to the common American, who has seen
stagnant wages regardless.
Health care — Other than the economy, health care is the top issue for voters nationwide. That importance has been
reflected in midterm ads all cycle, with Democrats focusing on maintaining coverage for those with preexisting
conditions and Republicans warning of the consequences of a “government takeover” of health care.
This issue is particularly potent because it’s rated as a top priority for some of the key parts of the electorate, including
white women (82 percent), independents (73 percent), suburban voters (74 percent) and seniors (83 percent).

Worth remembering: The
Kaiser Family Foundation
finds that the Affordable
Care Act (Obamacare) has
hit record popularity
during Trump’s tenure as
president.
(Source: Kaiser Family
Foundation)

Tariffs and trade – Particularly in the red states that are crucial to control of the Senate, Trump’s plans for agriculture
and steel tariffs could have a significant effect on the economy. Some Republicans fear that worry about the tariffs could
dampen GOP turnout in places like North Dakota (a huge producer of soybeans) or Tennessee (a state with a large
automotive industry) and Wisconsin (cheese and paper products).
7

 MAJOR TRENDS, BY THE NUMBERS — Female candidates
Women smashed records at every level when it comes to runs for political office.
Per the Center for American Women and Politics, here are the numbers of women who RAN for House and Senate
compared with previous records:

And here are the women who WON their nominations for the House and Senate, compared with previous records.

Among gubernatorial candidates, a total of 61 female candidates filed (breaking the previous record of 34) and 16 won
their primary (breaking the previous record of 10 nominees.)
Four women could be the FIRST female governor of their state — Janet Mills (Maine), Paulette Jordan (Idaho), Stacey
Abrams (Georgia) and Kristi Noem (South Dakota).
But there are also SIX states left in which a woman has never been nominated by a major party for governor: Minnesota,
Mississippi, New York, Ohio, Tennessee and Utah.

8

 MORE MAJOR TRENDS, BY THE NUMBERS
There are more than 50 military veterans (including incumbents) who were endorsed by bipartisan veterans group
With Honor for the U.S. House.
Some of the most prominent first-time candidates include:






Former Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11, D). Spent a decade on active duty flying missions.
Former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath (KY-6, D). First female Marine to fly in an F-18 in combat.
Former Air Force combat pilot M.J. Hegar (TX-31, D). Sued Pentagon over ban on women in combat.
Former Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw (TX-2, R). Lost an eye in an IED blast in Afghanistan.
Former Army paratrooper Richard Ojeda (WV-3, D). Won two Bronze Stars.

There are 14 alumni of the Obama administration or campaign running as Democrats for the U.S. House.
They include:





Former senior advisor to the U.N. Lauren Baer (FL-18)
Former HHS official Lauren Underwood (IL-14)
Former acting assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Elissa Slotkin (MI-8)
Former special assistant to the general counsel for HUD Colin Allred (TX-32)

There are more than 120 House candidates who are running for office for the first time, including more than 75
Democrats.
Some examples of those running from particularly non-traditional backgrounds:







Pediatrician Kim Schrier (WA-8, D)
Nurse Katie Hill (CA-25, D)
Former flight attendant and gun control activist Lucy McBath (GA-6, D)
Former professional baseball pitcher J.D. Scholten (IA-4, D)
Auto lubricant company exec Lena Epstein (MI-11, R)
Former Spanish-language TV reporter Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27, R)

In *competitive races only*, there are at least 26 House candidates who are millennials (born in 1981 or later)
According to a count maintained by NBC’s Ali Vitali and Jack Bohrer, there are at least 46 Democratic challengers and
11 incumbents who have said they won’t support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker if the party takes control of the House.

9

 BARRIER BREAKERS
If they win in November, these candidates would break barriers:
First female governor of the state: Janet Mills (Maine), Paulette Jordan (Idaho), Stacey Abrams (Georgia) and Kristi
Noem (South Dakota) could all be the first female governor of their state.
First transgender governor: Christine Halliquist (Vermont) is the first transgender gubernatorial nominee for a major
political party and would be the first transgender governor in the country. It will be a battle. She’s a Democrat running
against a relatively popular sitting Republican governor, although he had a lackluster primary showing himself
First female African-American governor: If elected in this closely watched gubernatorial race, Democrat Stacey Abrams
(Georgia) would be the nation’s first female African-American governor. It’s a race where the Republican might have the
slight advantage, but it’s considered a Toss Up by the Cook Political Report.
First Native American governor: If Democrat Paulette Jordan wins her uphill race for governor in conservative Idaho,
she would be the first Native American to serve as governor in the country.
First state to elect two women to the governor’s mansion consecutively: If Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) replaces
outgoing Gov. Susana Martinez (R), New Mexico will be the first state to elect two women to the governors’ mansion in
a row.
First openly gay man elected governor: Jared Polis (Colorado) was the first openly gay man to win a Congressional seat
as a non-incumbent, and hopes to be the first elected gay male governor. It’s a close race but leans in his favor.
First Muslim women in Congress: Both Rashida Tlaib (Michigan) and Ilhan Omar (Minnesota) are poised to become the
first Muslim American women in Congress. Both are Democrats running in safe blue districts.
First Palestinian-American in Congress: Rashida Tlaib (above) is set to become the first Palestinian-American in
Congress.
First Somali-American woman in Congress: Ilhan Omar (above) would also be the first Somali-American woman in
Congress.
First Native American women in Congress: Sharice Davids (Kansas) and Deb Haaland (New Mexico) could be the first
Native American women to serve in Congress. Both are Democrats; Davids is also gay (and also a former mixed martial
arts fighter). Haaland is running in a safe blue district, while Davids is running in a very competitive race.
First Korean-American woman in Congress: Republican Young Kim (California) is running in one of the nation’s closest
House races in an Orange County open seat. If she wins, she’ll be the first Korean-American female federal lawmaker.
Republican Pearl Kim (Pennsylvania), who worked as a prosecutor and senior deputy attorney general in Pennsylvania, is
also making a bid in PA-5.
Youngest woman ever elected to Congress: In her deep blue district, 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio Cortez is slated to
be the youngest member ever elected to Congress.
First black woman to represent New England in Congress: If Jahana Hayes (Connecticut) wins in November, she’ll be
Connecticut’s first black Democrat and the first black congresswoman from anywhere in New England.
First Latinas from Texas in Congress: Democrats Veronica Escobar and Sylvia Garcia are both likely headed to Congress
as the first Latinas to represent the state.
First openly lesbian veteran in Congress: Texas Democratic candidate Gina Ortiz Jones is in a competitive House race in
a border district. If she wins, she’d be the first openly lesbian veteran in Congress.
10

 THE PATH TO A HOUSE MAJORITY — A ROAD MAP TO FOLLOW AS POLLS CLOSE
Democrats must NET 23 seats to gain control of the U.S. House. Here are some of the most important seats in play.
The Democratic defense (6)
First thing’s first – Democrats aren’t playing defense very many places, and they can probably afford to (and expect to) lose a few
seats. Here are six they currently hold and are most likely to lose. (In order of final poll closing time – all times ET)
8pm poll close: NH-01: OPEN —previously held by Carol Shea-Porter (D). Eddie Edwards (R) v. Chris Pappas (D). Seat went 48-46
for Trump.
PA-14: OPEN — previously held by Conor Lamb (D) who is running in a new district. Guy Reschenthaler (R) v. Bibiana Boerio
(D) . Redistricted. New seat estimated to be Trump +29. (Note: due to redistricting, this is expected to flip)
9pm:

MN-01: OPEN — previously held by Tim Walz (D). Jim Hagedorn (R) v. Dan Feehan (D). Seat went 53-38 for Trump.
MN-08: OPEN —previously held by Rick Nolan (D). Pete Stauber (R) v. Joe Radinovich (D). Seat went 54-38 for Trump.

10pm: NV-03: OPEN — previously held by Jacky Rosen (D). Danny Tarkanian (R) v. Susie Lee (D). Seat went 48-47 for Trump.
NV-04: OPEN — previously held by Ruben Kihuen (D). Crescent Hardy (R) v. Steven Horsford (D). 50-45 for Clinton.

The most probable flips (15)
Strategists on both sides of the aisle believe that these races are most likely to flip from Republican to Democratic. Democrats aim to
get almost all of these seats in the hunt for a majority. (In order of poll closing time – all times ET)
7pm poll close: VA-10: Incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) v. Jennifer Wexton (D). Seat went 52-42 for Clinton.
FL-27: OPEN — previously held by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R). Maria Salazar (R) v. Donna Shalala (D). 58-39 for Clinton.
8pm:

KS-03: Incumbent Kevin Yoder (R) v. Sharice Davids (D). Seat went 47-46 for Clinton.
NJ-02: OPEN — previously held by Frank LoBiondo (R). Seth Grossman (R) v. Jeff Van Drew (D). 50-46 for Trump.
NJ-11: OPEN — previously held by Rodney Frelinghuysen (R). Jay Webber (R) v. Mikie Sherrill (D). 48-47 for Trump.
PA-05: OPEN — previously held by Patrick Meehan (R). Redistricted. Pearl Kim (R) v. Mary Gay Scanlon (D). New seat
estimated to be Clinton +28. (Note: due to redistricting, this is extremely likely to flip)
PA-06: OPEN — previously held by Ryan Costello (R). Redistricted. Gregory Michael McCauley (R) v. Chrissy Houlahan (D).
New seat estimated to be Clinton +9. (Note: due to redistricting, this is extremely likely to flip)
PA-07: OPEN —previously held by Charlie Dent (R). Redistricted. Marty Nothstein (R) v. Susan Wild (D). New seat estimated
to be Clinton +1.
PA-17: Incumbent Keith Rothfus (R) vs. Conor Lamb (D). Redistricted. New seat estimated to be Trump +1.

9pm:

AZ-02: OPEN — previously held by Martha McSally (R). Lea Marquez-Peterson (R) vs. Ann Kirkpatrick (D). 49-44 for Clinton
CO-06: Incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R) v. Jason Crow (D). Seat went 50-41 for Clinton.
MN-02: Incumbent Jason Lewis (R) v. Angie Craig (D). Seat went 46-45 for Trump.
MN-03: Incumbent Erik Paulsen (R) v. Dean Phillips (D). Seat went 50-41 for Clinton.

10pm: IA-01: Incumbent Rod Blum (R) v. Abby Finkenauer (D). Seat went 48-45 for Trump.
11pm: CA-49: OPEN — previously held by Darrell Issa(R). Diane Harkey (R) v. Mike Levin (D). Seat went for 50-43 for Clinton.

11

 THE PATH TO A HOUSE MAJORITY — A ROAD MAP TO FOLLOW AS POLLS CLOSE, CONTINUED
The majority makers (23)
These are mostly toss-up races with recent momentum for Democrats. If Democrats have won all of the “probable flips” and lost
only two of their own Dem-held seats, they need ten of the below to win the majority.
6pm poll close:

KY-06 Incumbent Rep. Andy Barr (R) v. Amy McGrath (D). Seat went 55-39 for Trump.

7pm poll close: FL-26: Incumbent Carlos Curbelo (R) v. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D). Seat went 56-40 for Clinton.
VA-02: Incumbent Scott Taylor (R) v. Elaine Luria (D). Seat went 48-45 for Trump.
VA-07: Incumbent Dave Brat (R) v. Abigail Spanberger (D). Seat went 50-44 for Trump.
7:30:

OH-01: Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) v. Aftab Pureval (D). Seat went 51-44 for Trump.

8pm:

IL-06: Incumbent Pete Roskam (R) v. Sean Casten (D). Seat went 49-42 for Clinton.
IL-12: Incumbent Rep. Mike Bost (R) v. Brendan Kelly (D). Seat went 54-40 for Trump.
ME-02: Incumbent Bruce Poliquin (R) v. Jared Golden (D). Seat went 51-41 for Trump.
MI-08: Incumbent Mike Bishop (R) v. Elissa Slotkin (D). Seat went 50-44 for Trump.
MI-11: OPEN — previously held by Dave Trott (R). Lena Epstein (R) v. Haley Stevens (D). Seat went 49-45 for Trump.
NJ-03: Incumbent Tom MacArthur (R) v. Andy Kim (D). Seat went 51-45 for Trump.
NJ-07: Incumbent Leonard Lance (R) v. Tom Malinowski (D). Seat went 48-47 for Clinton.
PA-01: Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick (R) v. Scott Wallace. (D). Redistricted. New district estimated to be Clinton +2.
TX-07: Incumbent John Culberson (R) v. Lizzie Fletcher (D). Seat went 48-47 for Clinton.
TX-32: Incumbent Pete Sessions (R) v. Colin Allred (D). Seat went 48-46 for Clinton.

9pm:

NM-02: OPEN — previously held by Steve Pearce (R). Yvette Herrell (R) v. Xochitl Torres Small. 50-40 for Trump.
NY-19: Incumbent John Faso (R) v. Antonio Delgado (D). Seat went 50-44 for Trump.
NY-22: Incumbent Claudia Tenney (R) v. Anthony Brindisi (D). Seat went 54-39 for Trump.

10pm: IA-03: Incumbent Rep. David Young (R) v. Cindy Axne (D). Seat went 48-45 for Trump.
11pm: CA-25 Incumbent Steve Knight (R) v. Katie Hill (D). Seat went 50-43 for Clinton.
CA-45: Incumbent Mimi Walters (R) v. Katie Porter (D). Seat went 49-44 for Clinton.
CA-48: Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (R) v. Harley Rouda (D). Seat went 48-46 for Clinton.
WA-08: OPEN — previously held by Dave Reichert (R). Dino Rossi (R) v. Kim Schrier (D). Seat went 46-43 for Clinton.

12

 THE PATH TO A HOUSE MAJORITY — A ROAD MAP TO FOLLOW AS POLLS CLOSE, CONTINUED
Adding to a majority — the beginning of a big wave (18)
These are races that will help determine if Democrats have a relatively slim majority or a more substantial one. More than a few
wins here means that we’re probably heading for a 35+ Dem pickup.
7pm poll close: VA-05: OPEN — previously held by Tom Garrett (R). Denver Riggleman (R) v. Leslie Cockburn. Seat went 53-44 for
Trump.
FL-15: OPEN — previously held by Dennis Ross (R). Ross Spano (R) v. Kristen Carlson (D). Seat went 53-43 for Trump.
FL-16: Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R) v. David Shapiro (D). Seat went 53-43 for Trump.
7:30pm: NC-02: Incumbent George Holding (R) v. Linda Coleman (D). Seat went 53-43 for Trump.
NC-09: OPEN — Rep. Robert Pittenger defeated in primary. Mark Harris (R) v. Dan McCready (D). Seat went 54-42 for
Trump.
NC-13: Incumbent Ted Budd (R) v. Kathy Manning (D). Seat went 53-44 for Trump.
WV-03: OPEN — previously held by Evan Jenkins (R). Carol Miller (R) v. Richard Ojeda (D). Seat went 73-23 for Trump.
8pm:

IL-13: Incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis (R) v. Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D). Seat went 49-44 for Trump.
IL-14: Incumbent Rep. Randy Hultgren (R) v. Lauren Underwood (D). Seat went 48-44 for Trump.
KS-2: OPEN — previously held by Lynn Jenkins (R). Steve Watkins (R) v. Paul Davis (D). Seat went 56-37 for Trump.
TX-31: Incumbent John Carter (R) v. M.J. Hegar (D). Seat went 53-49 for Trump.

9pm:

TX-23: Incumbent Will Hurd (R) v. Gina Ortiz Jones. (D). Seat went 50-46 for Clinton
WI-01: OPEN — previously held by Paul Ryan (R). Bryan Steil (R) v. Randy Bryce (D). Seat went 52-42 for Trump.

10pm: UT-04: Incumbent Mia Love (R) v. Ben McAdams (D). Seat went 39-32 for Trump.
11pm

CA-10: Incumbent Jeff Denham (R) v. Josh Harder (D). Seat went 48-45 for Clinton. n
CA-39: OPEN — previously held by Ed Royce (R). Young Kim (R) v. Gil Cisneros (D). Seat went 51-43 for Clinton.
WA-03: Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) v. Carolyn Long (D). Seat went 48-41 for Trump.
WA-05: Incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) v. Lisa Brown (D). Seat went 50-38 for Trump.
Tsunami alert !!!

If several of these races are close or breaking Democrats’ way, expect an historic wave.
AR-2
AZ-6
CA- 4
CA-21
FL-6

FL-18
GA-6
GA-7
IN-2
IA-4

MI-1
MO-2
NY-1
NY-2
NY-11

NY 27
OH-14
PA-10
TX-21

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 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME
7pm ET
Georgia (Polls close statewide at 7pm ET)
GA-GOV (OPEN): In one of the most closely-watched gubernatorial races of the cycle, Stacey Abrams (D) faces
conservative Brian Kemp (R) in her attempt to become the first female African-American governor in U.S. history. She
hopes to mobilize black and rural voters who rarely participate in midterm elections, while Kemp has focused on issues
like immigration and gun rights. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up)
GA-06 (Northern Atlanta suburbs): Gun control activist Lucy McBath (D), whose son was shot and killed at a gas station
over a dispute about loud music, faces Rep. Karen Handel (R), who won the high-profile special election for the
suburban Atlanta seat in 2017. The November contest isn’t expected to be quite as close as the special election, which
was the focus of national media attention for months, but it’s still very competitive. (Cook Political Report: Lean R)
GA-07 (Northeastern Atlanta suburbs): Republicans worry that Rep. Rob Woodall (R) could blow what should be an
easy race in this suburban Atlanta district that went for Trump by a 7-point margin in 2016. His challenger is professor
Carolyn Bourdeaux (D). As of a week before the election, Woodall hadn’t aired any TV ads at all. (Cook Political Report:
Lean R)

Indiana (Earliest poll closing at 6pm ET. Last polls close at 7pm ET)
IN-SEN: Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) has kept a low profile since being elected in a fluky victory in 2012 (so fluky, in
fact, that he’s been dubbed the “accidental senator.”) Indiana remains redder than other Rust Belt states, forcing
Donnelly to court both Republicans and Democrats if he hopes to fend off businessman Mike Braun (R). (Cook Political
Report: Toss Up.)
IN-2 (South Bend): Incumbent Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) faced tight races before the latest round of redistricting; now,
this South Bend district could still be competitive if blue-collar Trump voters fail to turn out in her fight against
businessman and former minister Mel Hall (D). (Cook Political Report: Likely R)

Kentucky (Eastern Kentucky polls close at 6pm ET. In the western part of the state, polls close at 7pm ET)
KY-6 (Lexington): Democrats believe they have one of their best candidates of the cycle in this Lexington-area district.
Amy McGrath (D) is a retired Marine Lieutenant Colonel who was the first female Marine to fly in an F-18 on a combat
mission. She’s running against incumbent Rep. Andy Barr (R). The race has gotten a ton of national media attention, and
for good reason. Both sides view it as an important early bellwether. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
* (6pm ET poll close)

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 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (7pm ET, continued)

South Carolina (Polls close statewide at 7pm ET)
SC-GOV: Incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster (R) was one of Donald Trump’s earliest allies in 2016. He faces a challenge
from state Rep. James Smith (R). (Cook Political Report: Likely R)
SC-1 (Charleston): Incumbent Republican Mark Sanford lost his primary here after his vocal criticism of Donald Trump
earned a White House endorsement for opponent Katie Arrington (R). Arrington, who has been in recovery from a
serious car accident shortly after the primary, faces Joe Cunningham (D). (Cook Political Report: Lean R)

Vermont (Polls close statewide at 7pm ET)
VT-GOV: Former energy company executive Christine Hallquist (D) would be the nation’s first transgender governor if
elected, but she faces an uphill battle against incumbent Gov. Phil Scott (R). (Cook Political Report: Solid R)

Virginia (Polls close statewide at 7pm ET)
VA-SEN: Establishment Republicans despaired when the party nominated Corey Stewart (R), best known for his fierce
defense of Confederate symbols and his harsh rhetoric toward immigrants. Incumbent Tim Kaine (D) is set to cruise to
reelection, but a bigger question is how much having Stewart at the top of the GOP ticket drags down the party in the
state’s competitive House races. (Cook Political Report: Solid D)
VA-2 (Virginia Beach): Incumbent Scott Taylor (R) faces challenger Elaine Luria (D), a retired Navy commander. Taylor
has come under fire for a campaign scandal involving forged signatures on petitions to get an independent on the ballot,
a blunder that’s putting this otherwise safe GOP seat very much in play. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up)
VA-5 (Charlottesville): In this open seat to replace retiring Republican Rep. Tom Garrett in a GOP-leaning seat,
Democrats hope that former journalist (and mother of actress Olivia Wilde) Leslie Cockburn (D) can pull off a win against
distillery owner Denver Riggleman (R). You may have heard about Riggleman’s social media account featuring “Bigfootthemed erotic art.” (Cook Political Report: Lean R)
VA-7 (Richmond suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Dave Brat (R) famously ousted House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the
2014 Republican primary, but he hasn’t necessarily been a great fit for the district or a great candidate. He faces a tough
challenge from former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger (D). One issue in this race: Spanberger has accused GOP group
Congressional Leadership Fund of improperly using an unredacted security clearance in its ads against her. (Cook
Political Report: Toss Up.)
VA-10: (D.C. suburbs): The suburbs of Washington D.C. are affluent, diverse and well-educated — and getting more so
by the year. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) has tried to hold on to this seat by distancing herself from Trump (even pushing
back against a government shutdown in a televised meeting with the president), but it would be a surprise if she kept
this seat. The Democratic candidate is state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D). (Cook Political Report: Lean D).
15

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (7:30pm ET)
7:30pm ET
North Carolina (Polls close statewide at 7:30 pm ET)
NC-2 (central North Carolina): This district went for Trump by 10 points in 2016, making it a stretch for Democrats. But
incumbent Rep. George Holding (R) got beat early on the airwaves and hasn’t run a particularly compelling campaign.
His Democratic opponent is former state representative Linda Coleman (D). (Cook Political Report: Lean R).
NC-8 (south central North Carolina): Incumbent Rep. Richard Hudson (R) faces a well-known and well-funded opponent
in Frank McNeill (D), who has roots in the region in part due to his family’s longtime oil and propane business there.
(Cook Political Report: Likely R).
NC-9 (Charlotte suburbs): Incumbent Robert Pittenger lost his GOP primary to conservative pastor Mark Harris (R) in
May, setting up a competitive general election. Harris has taken heat for past controversial statements, including
questioning whether careers are the “healthiest pursuit” for women. Democrats like their candidate, Iraq War veteran
Dan McCready (D). (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
NC-13 (east central North Carolina): Trump won this district by nine points but still only mustered 53 percent of the
vote. That means that incumbent Rep. Ted Budd (R) has had his work cut out to fend off challenger Kathy Manning (D).
(Cook Political Report: Toss Up).

Ohio (Polls close statewide at 7:30pm ET)
OH-GOV (OPEN): With Republican Gov. John Kasich term-limited, the gubernatorial race pits a longtime state pol —
state attorney general Mike DeWine (R) against a Democrat — Richard Cordray (D) — who made a national name for
himself as a champion against big banks when he served as the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
(Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
OH-SEN: Early in the cycle, this looked like a suspenseful matchup, with incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in a rematch
against Republican state treasurer Josh Mandel. But Mandel unexpectedly withdrew from the face, prompting Rep. Jim
Renacci (R) to switch to the Senate contest from his planned gubernatorial run. Brown, a populist, remains popular even
with Democrats who back Trump, while Renacci doesn’t have much of a brand. (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
OH-1 (Cincinnati area): Incumbent Rep. Steve Chabot (R) hasn’t had a competitive race since after the state’s 2010
redistricting. It’s a GOP-leaning district, but one that only went for Trump 51-46 in 2016. Democrats had thought their
candidate, Aftab Pureval (D), had the profile and talent to make this a competitive race. A former prosecutor — and the
son of first-generation immigrants from Tibet and India — Pureval is telegenic, young and strong on the stump. But he’s
faced relentless attacks from Republicans about possible campaign finance violations, which have hurt his image as a
new Democratic star. (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)

16

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (7:30pm ET, continued)

OH-10: (Dayton area): Incumbent Rep. Mike Turner (R), first elected in 2002, has benefitted from a relatively moderate
record in a district that Trump barely carried with 51 percent of the vote. Democrats think they have a candidate who
can still make this competitive — businesswoman and community philanthropist Theresa Gasper (D). (Cook Political
Report: Likely R.)
OH-12: (Columbus suburbs): Republicans spent millions to keep this seat in their party’s hands in an August special
election, with now-Rep. Troy Balderson (R) winning by just over 1,500 votes despite a full-court press from the GOP. It’ll
be a rematch between Balderson and Danny O’Connor (D) in November. (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)
OH-14: (Northeast Ohio): In another district that Trump carried with a tepid showing (53 percent), incumbent Rep.
David Joyce (R) has a relatively moderate voting record. (Like Mike Turner in OH-10, he voted against Obamacare
repeal.) But this seat may be in play if there’s a big blue wave — a dynamic evidenced by the fact that Joyce is one of the
few Republicans using TV ads to highlight times that he’s stood up to Donald Trump. The Democrat is civil rights lawyer
Betsy Rader (D). (Cook Political Report: Likely R.)

West Virginia (Polls close statewide at 7:30pm ET)
WV-SEN: Incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) has a strong personal brand in West Virginia, and he’s been running ads
touting his independence and underscoring his support for gun rights and veterans. Democrats lucked out with GOP
opponent and state attorney general Patrick Morrissey (R), who was the weaker of two major candidates in the GOP
primary (whose name was not Don Blankenship, of course.) First, Morrisey ran and lost for a House seat in New Jersey in
2000. Another key argument against Morrisey: as AG, he’s backing a lawsuit to eliminate health care coverage
requirements for pre-existing conditions. Still, it’s one of the most pro-Trump states in the country, meaning that
Manchin has had to walk a tricky line. One example: He voted for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, but only
after it was apparent that he’d be confirmed. (Cook Political Report: Lean D.)
WV-3 (Southern WV): Candidate Richard Ojeda (D), who’s running as a Democratic pro-education, pro-pot, pro-labor
military veteran with tattoos and a twang, is one of the most compelling candidates in the country. If he wins this open
seat in Trump-loving West Virginia against Rep. Carol Miller (R), it’ll likely vault him to a role in the national spotlight. (If
he wins, it would also be the biggest party flip in a midterm since 1998). (Cook Political Report rating: Lean R.)

17

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (8:00pmET)
8pm ET
Alabama (Polls close in most of the state close at 7pm ET. Polls in some counties on the GA border close at 8pm ET)
No competitive races.

Connecticut (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
CT-GOV (OPEN): 2006 Senate candidate and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Ned Lamont (D) is back as the Democratic
nominee for Connecticut’s open gubernatorial seat, which is one of the GOP’s top pickup opportunities. Departing
Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy has struggled with major fiscal problems in the state, giving him some of the poorest
approval ratings in the country. His unpopularity could vault Bob Stefanowski (R), a global financial executive who has
held top jobs at General Electric and UBS, to a win. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)

Delaware (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
No competitive races

Florida (Polls close at 7pm ET in the eastern part of the state. In the panhandle, polls close at 8pm ET)
FL-GOV: One of the most surprising gubernatorial matchups in the country is also one of its hardest fought. Progressive
African-American Andrew Gillum (D) surprised the political world when he won the late August primary here, while
Trump-endorsed Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) rode the president’s support to a resounding win over onetime favorite Adam
Putnam. It’s become a battle of the two ideological sides — with plenty of racial undertones. (The nominees also had to
contend with a devastating hurricane less than a month before the election.) It’s become very personal and nasty, with
Gillum also facing an FBI inquiry over his dealings with lobbyists. The result will have consequences for 2020 and beyond.
(Cook Political Report: Toss Up).
FL-SEN: Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D), who has served in the Senate since 2000, cruised to reelection in 2006 and 2012
after facing flawed GOP candidates. But this cycle, he faces a well-known and even better-funded opponent in outgoing
Gov. Rick Scott (R). Democrats have feared that Nelson, who is known for an easy-going style, hasn’t been aggressive
enough in going after Scott, but recent polling shows him keeping even or better. This is one of the most expensive,
closest and most closely-watched races in the country. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
FL-6: (Daytona Beach): This open seat — formerly held by gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis — should be a longshot
for Democrats. (Trump won here 56 percent to 40 percent.) But Nancy Soderberg (D), a former U.N. ambassador, has
performed well in some partisan polls and significantly outraised Afghan War veteran Rep. Michael Waltz (R), making it
a race to watch. (Cook Political Report: Lean R)
* (7pm ET poll close)

18

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (8:00pmET, continued)

FL-7 (Orlando suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D), a freshman lawmaker who gave her party a sliver of
good news during the 2016 election after she narrowly beat longtime incumbent John Mica, faces state representative
Mike Miller (R) in her first re-election race. It’s a challenging district for Democrats, but her personal story as a
Vietnamese refugee makes her a strong incumbent, particularly in this diverse area. (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
* (7pm ET poll close)
FL-15 (Tampa suburbs): The retirement of Republican Dennis Ross puts this district, with a combination of suburban and
rural areas, as a potential pickup for Democrats. Their candidate is Kristen Carlson (D), whose background as a former
lawyer for the Florida Department of Citrus is a favorable one for the district. State representative Ross Spano (R), has
struggled to keep up with Carlson’s fundraising. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up) .
* (7pm ET poll close)
FL-16 (Central Gulf Coast): For the past few cycles, incumbent Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) has been dogged by ethics
issues, including allegations that he misused campaign funds. (He also purchased a yacht the same day that he voted on
the tax reform bill.) Investigations by DOJ and the Ethics Committee both concluded without charges, but the lingering
questions about his conduct have been fodder for challenger David Shapiro (D), a personal injury lawyer. (Cook Political
Report: Lean R).
* (7pm ET poll close)
FL-18 (Treasure Coast): Known for its often expensive congressional races, this district is once again worth watching. The
incumbent is Rep. Brian Mast (R), an Afghan War vet who lost both legs serving overseas. The Democrat challenging him
is former State Department official Lauren Baer (D), who served under both John Kerry and Hillary Clinton. The district
voted for Trump by nine points in 2016 and isn’t far from Mar-a-Lago. (Cook Political Report: Lean R).
* (7pm ET poll close)
FL-26: (Florida Keys, Miami suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) sits in one of the 23 congressional districts that
voted for Clinton but are represented by Republicans in Congress. But he has made the right moves to stay afloat,
frequently blasting the Trump administration and excoriating both parties over their failure to address immigration
reform. He faces fundraising consultant Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who has polled well and could best Curbelo just by
the nature of the heavily Democratic district. (Cook Political Report rating: Toss Up.)
*( 7pm ET poll close)
FL-27 (Miami): The only Republican who Democrats thought could have comfortably won in this Miami district was its
outgoing incumbent, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. The demographics in this majority-Hispanic district means it should be
Democrats’ to lose. But there’s concern that their nominee, former Clinton administration official Donna Shalala (D), is a
particularly poor match for the district. (She doesn’t speak Spanish, for example). Republicans picked a strong nominee
in Maria Salazar (R), however, a Cuban woman with a background as a TV journalist for Univision. (Cook Political Report:
Lean D).
*( 7pm ET poll close)

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 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (8:00pmET, continued)

Illinois (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
IL-GOV: What happens when two extremely wealthy people run for governor against each other? A very, very expensive
contest. Illinois residents have been subject to a pricey ad war between incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) and
challenger J.B. Pritzker (D) since before the Illinois primary in March. The battle has been brutal, but Pritzker — of the
famed Chicago Priztker family of the Hyatt hotel fortune— is slated to win here. What’s more, Rauner’s poor showing
may be problematic for GOP candidates down the ballot. (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
IL-3 (Chicago, western suburbs): This isn’t a competitive race, but it’s one that that’s gotten headlines for the GOP’s
nomination of an avowed Nazi, Arthur Jones (R), as its pick to take on longtime incumbent Rep. Dan Lipinski (D). A
newcomer independent, Justin Hanson, is also running a protest write-in campaign that has received some national
press. (Cook Political Report rating: Solid D).
IL-6 (Chicago western suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Pete Roskam (R) represents a district that has been becoming more
and more of a diverse suburban hub for Chicago-area development. The changing district means Roskam long been a
target for Democrats this cycle. He faces scientist and clean energy entrepreneur Sean Casten (D). (Cook Political Report
rating: Lean D.)
IL-12 (Southwest Illinois): This seat has been held by Rep. Mike Bost (R) since 2014, but Democrats are optimistic about
their candidate in this district, St. Clair County prosecutor Brendan Kelly (D). Kelly, a Navy veteran, has emphasized his
work fighting big drug companies on opioid policy, and he’s made health care a priority in his ads. Still, Trump remains
very popular in this manufacturing-heavy district. (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)
IL-13 (St Louis exurbs): Incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis (R) surprised political observers when he won this seat in a close
2012 election. He has worked to build a moderate record and a reputation for being likeable, and he’s distanced himself
from Trump’s rhetoric. But Trump was kept to under 50 percent in the district in 2016, winning by 49 percent to 45
percent, and Democrats have a fairly good candidate in fundraiser Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D). (Cook Political Report
rating: Lean R.)
IL-14 (Chicago exurbs): Another Republican in a district where Trump won with less than 50 percent of the vote,
incumbent Rep. Randy Hultgren (R) is facing his first tight race since his narrow election in 2010. He’s white, has held
political office for 20 years and focuses largely on financial policy; his opponent is 31 year-old African-American nurse
and former Obama HHS senior adviser Lauren Underwood (D). (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).

20

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (8:00pmET, continued)
Maine (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
ME-GOV (OPEN): Controversial Gov. Phil LePage is term-limited, setting up a toss up race that Democrats believe could
be a pickup opportunity. State Attorney General Janet Mills (D) would be the first female governor of the state if
elected. She faces auto body repair shop owner Shawn Moody (R), an ally of LePage whose connections to the
controversial outgoing gov could be considered baggage for some voters. Moody is also contending with recent
revelations that he settled a sex discrimination complaint in 2006. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).
ME-2 (Northern Maine): Democrats have tried to defeat incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) in the last two cycles to no
avail, but — as in other competitive seats — they feel more confident about their candidate this cycle. Jared Golden (D),
a 35 year-old state representative who enlisted in the Marines after 9/11, is a bit in the mold of Conor Lamb — he’s said
he won’t back Pelosi, he touts his bipartisan cred as a onetime aide to Republican Sen. Susan Collins, and he’s used a
firearm as a prop in several ads. Keep in mind: Maine is using ranked voting for its congressional races this year (not,
notably, its gubernatorial contest), which creates an “instant runoff” if no one breaks 50 percent — not unlikely,
considering that there are two independents on the ballot. (Cook Political Report rating: Toss Up.)

Maryland (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
MD-GOV: Maryland is a reliably blue state, but Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is one of the most popular governors in the
country. Democrats nominated former NAACP head Ben Jealous (D), a progressive African-American who campaigned
for Bernie Sanders and endorses Medicare-for-all, but he’s an extreme longshot against a well-liked incumbent. (Cook
Political Report: Likely R)

Massachusetts (Polls close statewide at 8pm Et)
No competitive races.

Mississippi (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
MS-SEN (OPEN SEAT): The Mississippi Senate race could go into overtime. Because of the state’s unusual election laws,
the November 6 election is technically the primary in the contest to complete the term of Thad Cochran, who resigned
amid health problems. Gov. Phil Bryant named now- Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) to fill the seat temporarily, and she’s
running to keep the seat until 2021. But she faces competition from conservative candidate Chris McDaniel, who also
ran for the Senate in 2014. After some initial reluctance, Trump endorsed Hyde-Smith, decreasing McDaniel’s potential
influence in the race. But the key to remember is that if no one surpasses 50 percent, the race will go to a runoff on
November 27. That could set up a high-stakes contest after Election Day between Hyde-Smith and the Democrat in the
race, former Ag Secretary and former congressman Mike Espy (D). A runoff could get enormous national attention if
control of the Senate is up for grabs after Election Day, and Democrats would devote every possible resource to
registering the state’s black voters to turn out for Espy (who also happens to be black.) (Cook Political Report rating:
Lean R).
21

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (8:00pmET, continued)
Missouri (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
MO-SEN: Incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) is at the top of Republicans’ target list, and it’s not hard to see why. She’s
built a national reputation as a defender of Democratic policies — and was the first member of Congress to endorse
Hillary Clinton in 2016 — which has driven up her negative ratings in red-leading Missouri. Republicans have also taken
on her husband’s personal wealth, and they’ve painted her as beholden to Democratic leadership on the Hill. She faces
Josh Hawley (R), the state’s 38 year-old attorney general. Hawley hasn’t turned out to be the shoo-in candidate that
Republicans envisioned, though, posting lackluster fundraising numbers and sluggish campaign appearances. One major
line of attack for Democrats is that Hawley signed on to a lawsuit by Republican state AGs challenging protections for
people with preexisting conditions. Another factor looming over the race is the abrupt departure of GOP Gov. Eric
Greitens earlier this year amid a sex scandal. (Cook Political Report rating: Toss Up.)
MO-2 (Western St. Louis suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Ann Wagner (R) was widely considered to be the favored GOP
Senate candidate earlier this cycle, but party bigwigs backed Hawley instead. She now faces a challenge from lawyer
Cort VanOstran (D), who has run an impressive campaign despite the district’s GOP DNA. Democrats hope he’ll move
voters in this suburban district by focusing on Wagner’s vote to repeal Obamacare. (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)

New Hampshire (Poll closings vary by municipality. First polls close at 7pm ET. Last polls close at 8pm ET)
NH-GOV: Sitting Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is popular in this state that narrowly voted for Clinton in 2016. He’s favored in his
challenge from former state Sen. Molly Kelly (D). (Cook Political Report: Lean R).
NH-1 (Manchester): A famously swingy district that has changed party hands in the last four cycles, this seat is open for
the first time in 16 years after the retirement of Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. Eddie Edwards (R) is a former police chief
and would be the first African-American elected to represent the state. The edge in the race, though, goes to longtime
local Democratic pol and restaurant owner Chris Pappas (D), who would be the first LGBT person from New Hampshire
in Congress. (Cook Political Report: Likely D)

New Jersey (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
NJ-SEN: Democrats breathed a sigh of relief after the Department of Justice dropped its corruption case against Sen.
Bob Menendez (D) after an initial hung jury. But they perhaps shouldn’t have breathed easy so soon; polls have shown
that Menendez’s legal woes are taking a toll. The state’s reliable support for Democrats — as well as the national
political environment — will probably haul Menendez over the finish line against well-funded pharmaceutical executive
Bob Hugin (R), but it may be very close, particularly since Hugin has outspent Menendez by a wide margin on the
airwaves. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).
NJ-2 (Atlantic City): Moderate Republican Frank LoBiondo is retiring, opening the seat for the first time since his first
election in 1994. With the seat open, Democrats finally managed to recruit state senator Jeff Van Drew (D). Van Drew,
also a moderate, is favored to flip the seat over former Atlantic County official Seth Grossman (R), who saw the NRCC
revoke its support for him after he shared a racist post on social media . (Cook Political Report: Likely D).

22

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (8:00pmET, continued)
NJ-3 (South Central New Jersey): This retiree-rich part of New Jersey voted for Trump 51 percent to 45 percent in 2016.
Incumbent Rep. Tom MacArthur (R), who was first elected in 2014, was a player during the Obamacare repeal
negotiations, when he brokered a compromise between his own moderate GOP wing and conservatives to pass the
repeal bill that ultimately failed in the Senate. That health care repeal work will be a liability in his race against Andy Kim
(D), an adviser on ISIS in the Obama White House. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
NJ-5 (Bergen County): Incumbent Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) has painted himself as a centrist in a district that very
narrowly backed Trump. He should be poised to stave off a challenge from opponent John McCann (R), but it’s not a
lock for Democrats. (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
NJ-7 (North central New Jersey): This white-collar, upscale suburban area of New Jersey has been represented by Rep.
Leonard Lance (R) since 2008. It’s a previously reliable GOP district that’s skeptical of Trump, and Democrats think their
candidate — former State Department official and human rights advocate Tom Malinowski (D) — could capitalize. (Cook
Political Report: Toss Up.)
NJ-11 (Trenton): The retirement of New Jersey political fixture Rodney Frelinghuysen — whose family ties to state
politics go back to the 1790s — set up a showdown in this very affluent district. Jay Webber (R) is a former state party
chairman and social conservative. But the district’s changing dynamics favor Mikie Sherrill (D), a former Navy helicopter
pilot and federal prosecutor. (Cook Political Report: Lean D).

Oklahoma (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
OK-GOV (OPEN): Term-limited Gov. Mary Fallin’s departure set up a race that’s surprisingly competitive despite
Oklahoma’s Republican DNA. Fallin is leaving office with low approval ratings, and Republicans nominated the weaker
candidate with their selection of Gateway Mortgage CEO Kevin Stitt (R). The Democratic candidate, former state
Attorney General Drew Edmonson (D), has a successful statewide run under his belt. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).

Pennsylvania (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
PA-GOV: Incumbent Gov. Tom Wolf (D) looks likely to hold off a challenge from state Sen. Scott Wagner (R), a wealthy
businessman who has modeled himself as a Trump-like outsider. You may remember Wagner’s threat during a
campaign video to “stomp all over [Wolf’s] face with golf spikes.” (Cook Political Report rating: Likely D)
PA-SEN: In a state where Trump unexpectedly emerged victorious in 2016, it would seem that Sen. Bob Casey (D) could
have been among the red state Democrats worried about keeping his job. But Casey has held a comfortable lead
throughout the contest against Rep. Lou Barletta (R), who has aligned himself closely with Trump. Barletta has also
lagged in fundraising, and Republican outside groups haven’t come to his rescue as they have in closer contests. (Cook
Political Report rating: Likely D.)

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PA-1 (Bucks County): The seat held by moderate Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) became slightly more Democratic after the
state’s redistricting this year (he previously represented PA-8). But he’s holding his own in this swingy district over Scott
Wallace (D), the great grandson of FDR’s vice president. Wallace’s greatest asset has been be his willingness to spend his
own considerable wealth — his family’s philanthropic foundation has more than $140 million — but Republicans have
also targeted him as an elitist whose family foundation contributed to unpopular causes. (Cook Political Report: Toss
Up).
PA-5 (Delaware County): After redistricting and the retirement of Republican Rep. Pat Meehan (who previously
represented PA-7), this area is a likely flip to Democrats. Education advocate Mary Gay Scanlon (D) faces former
assistant attorney general Pearl Kim (R). (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
PA-6 (Southeastern Pennsylvania): Like PA-5, redistricting has rendered the Sixth district a likely flip in Democrats’
favor. Republican Ryan Costello is retiring, making this an open race between attorney Greg McCauley (R) and one of
Democrats’ strongest recruits of the cycle, Air Force vet Chrissy Houlahan (D). (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
PA-7 (Allentown): Moderate GOP Rep. Charlie Dent called it quits this year, and his old district (PA-15) was redrawn to
slightly favor Democrats. Marty Nothstein (R), the county commissioner and onetime Olympic cyclist, has the kind of
moderate profile that could be successful here, but he’s had to deal with allegations of sexual misconduct in 2000. (An
arm of the U.S. Olympic Committee investigated the charges and found no wrongdoing.) He faces EMILY’s List-backed
former Allentown solicitor Susan Wild (D). (Cook Political Report: Lean D).
PA-8 (Scranton): This area flipped for Trump by a double-digit margin in 2016, but Rep. Matthew Cartwright (D) wasn’t
badly disadvantaged by redistricting, and he’s well-funded against a GOP challenge from wealthy investment banker
John Chrin (R). (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
PA-10 (Harrisburg): Democrats nominated pastor and retired Army officer George Scott (D) to challenge Rep. Scott
Perry (R). Redistricting left Perry (who previously represented PA-04) with a much more competitive seat, and Scott’s
background could play well against Perry, who is also a veteran. (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)
PA-14 (Southwest Pennsylvania): The district formerly held by Conor Lamb (who’s running in the new PA-17) has been
redrawn into one that favors the GOP. The Republican candidate is state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler (R); he’ll face Bibiana
Boerio (D), a former Ford exec. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
PA-16 (Erie): Redistricting slightly cut the GOP edge here for incumbent Rep. Mike Kelly (R) (who previously represented
PA-3), and Democrats think they have a competitive candidate in attorney Ron DiNicola (D), a former Marine and
onetime professional boxer who served as Muhammad Ali’s lawyer. (Cook Political Report: Lean R).
PA-17 (Pittsburgh suburbs): After his high profile win in what was Pennsylvania’s 18th district, Rep. Conor Lamb (D) is
running for a new seat that’s even more favorable for him. The same moderate resume that won him national attention
in the special election will likely serve him well here as he aims to oust fellow incumbent Rep. Keith Rothfus (R). This is
the only race this cycle featuring two current members of the House facing each other. (Cook Political Report: Likely D).

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Rhode Island (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
RI-GOV: Incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) fended off a primary challenge from the left, but she’s facing a rematch
against Alan Fung (R), whom she beat by five points in 2014. There’s an independent candidate in the mix, which could
complicate the race, too: GOP state senator Joe Trillo. (Cook Political Report: Lean D)

Tennessee (Polls close statewide at 8pm ET)
TN-GOV (OPEN): Unlike the Senate race, the gubernatorial contest should be fairly drama-free, with businessman Bill
Lee (R) solidly leading former Nashville mayor Karl Dean (D) in public polling. (Cook Political Report: Likely R)
TN-SEN: The retirement of Sen. Bob Corker left Republicans playing defense in what should have been a safe Republican
race. Democrats recruited the one Dem who could win statewide: popular former governor Phil Bredesen (D). Bredesen
has been careful to play up his centrist record and say that he’s not running against Trump. He faces Rep. Marsha
Blackburn (R), who has fully embraced the president’s support. This is one of the top Senate races of the cycle. (Cook
Political Report: Toss Up.)

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8:30pm ET
Arkansas (Polls close statewide at 8:30pm ET)
AR-2 (Little Rock): The Little Rock area is home to President Donald Trump’s lowest 2016 showing in the state (52
percent), and Democrats think they have a strong challenger against Rep. French Hill (R). He faces 37 year-old state
representative Clarke Tucker (D). (Cook Political Report: Likely R)

9pm ET
Arizona (Polls close statewide at 9pm ET)
AZ-GOV: Education is a major issue in the race between Gov. Doug Ducey (R), who faced a major teacher strike this
spring, and education consultant and former school superintendent David Garcia (D). But Garcia’s positions on
immigration and health care are probably too far left for the state, and Ducey has a good economic record to run on.
(Cook Political Report: Likely R)
AZ-SEN: The departure of Jeff Flake means that Republicans are in a dogfight to keep this seat out of Democratic hands.
Rep. Martha McSally (R) has highlighted her service as the first female combat fighter pilot. But the state’s late August
primary also left her little time to pivot to the general election after she was forced to the right on Trump and
immigration. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) didn’t face opposition from within her own party, giving her more time to court
voters as a centrist. McSally has attacked Sinema hard over her past protests against the Iraq War and past disparaging
jokes about Arizona. The candidates here are well-matched, and this will likely be one of the closest races of the cycle.
(Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
AZ-1 (Flagstaff): Candidate Tom O’Halleran (D), a former Republican and onetime Chicago police department detective,
has had a moderate profile that fits this district despite its slight edge for Trump in 2016. Republicans like their chances
with Air Force veteran and previous congressional candidate Wendy Rogers (R), but O’Halleran remains the favorite.
(Cook Political Report: Likely D).
AZ-2 (Tucson): With Martha McSally running for Senate, Democrats put this Clinton-leaning district at the top of their
target list. Their nominee, former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) — who previously represented a different and more
conservative district in the state — had a more challenging primary than expected against a challenger who ran to her
left. Republicans have painted her as a carpetbagger who’s too far left for the district, but the NRCC seems to have
ceded this one to the Dems by pulling their ads in mid-October. Their candidate is Tucson Hispanic Chamber of
Commerce chief Lea Marquez-Peterson (R). (Cook Political Report rating: Lean D).
AZ-6 (North Phoenix): Incumbent Rep. Dave Schweikert (R) hasn’t had a competitive general election since his first win
in 2010, and the district should remain reliably red. But a combination of the area’s affluent retirees, its high collegeeducated population and Trump’s tepid 52 percent win here in 2016 puts it potentially in play. His challenger is
businesswoman Anita Malik (D). (Cook Political Report rating: Likely R).
AZ-8 (Western Phoenix suburbs): In April, Debbie Lesko (R) defeated Hiral Tiperneni (D) by just four points in the
special election to replace Trent Franks. Tiperneni has kept her fundraising at a brisk clip since then for the November
rematch, but the district’s heavy GOP tilt favors Lesko to win a full term. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
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Colorado (Polls close statewide at 9pm ET)
CO-GOV (OPEN): With term-limited Democrat John Hickenlooper leaving office, Colorado voters will choose between
Rep. Jared Polis (D) and Walker Stapleton (R), the state treasurer and a cousin to the former presidents Bush. Both
sides think the race is competitive, although the state itself seems to be trending bluer each cycle. (Cook Political Report:
Lean D).
CO-3 (Pueblo): Incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton (R), first elected in the 2010 red wave, fended off well-funded Democratic
challengers in 2012 and 2016. Democrats are targeting him again this year, but they will have to hope that turnout will
be high in the district’s affluent resort areas. Their candidate is state representative Diane Mitsch Bush (D). (Cook
Political Report: Likely R).
CO-6 (Denver suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R) seems to have nine lives in this district that supported
Clinton by nine points. A moderate military veteran, he’s emphasized his ties to the area’s ethnic enclaves, learned
Spanish and distanced himself from Trump. But Democrats think they have finally found the right challenger to end his
tenure with 39 year-old former Army Ranger Jason Crow (D). (Cook Political Report: Lean D.)

Kansas (Some polls close at 8pm ET. Final poll close is at 9pm ET)
KS-GOV: Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) won an August primary victory over Gov. Jeff Colyer, prompting
analysts to immediately move this race into the Toss Up column. Kobach, who had Trump’s endorsement in the primary,
is known nationally for his controversial leadership of the president’s voter fraud commission. But more problematic for
him in Kansas is his alignment with very unpopular former Gov. Sam Brownback. He faces state Sen. Laura Kelly (D); a
third-party candidate, independent Greg Orman, will also complicate the results here. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).

KS-2 (Eastern Kansas): Kobach’s presence at the top of the ticket may be a drag for Republicans in both competitive
House races in the state. In this district, which includes Topeka and Lawrence, Democrats think former state House
Minority Leader Paul Davis (D) is a formidable candidate for them. He faces Army veteran Steve Watkins (R), who’s
contending with multiple negative stories — including a sexual misconduct allegation. Davis has also been the subject of
a flurry of negative ads, including references to a late 1990s incident at a strip club. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
*( 8pm ET poll close)

KS-3 (Kansas City and suburbs): A combination of a highly college-educated and diverse district and a Democratic
challenger with an unusual but compelling backstory puts this seat, held by Rep. Kevin Yoder (R), in major danger for
Republicans. Sharice Davids (D) is a Native American former MMA fighter who is a lesbian with some moderate views.
Kobach could be a drag on Yoder in this district as well. (Cook Political Report: Lean D).
*( 8pm ET poll close)

Louisiana (Polls close statewide at 9pm ET)
No competitive races.
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Michigan (Most polls close at 8pm ET. Final polls close is at 9pm ET)
MI-GOV (OPEN): Republican Gov. Rick Snyder is term-limited, prompting a fight between former state Senate Minority
Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Attorney General Bill Schuette (R). Whitmer has led in public polling, in part due to
her blunt messaging on infrastructure: “Fix the damn roads.” (Cook Political Report: Lean D).
MI-SEN: In a different political environment, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) could be facing the race of her career. But
between Trump’s unpopularity in the state and a relative newcomer in her GOP opponent, African-American veteran
John James (R), she’s led throughout the contest. (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
MI-1 (Traverse City): Incumbent Rep. Jack Bergman (R) represents this largely blue-collar Upper Peninsula district,
which has Democratic roots but went for Trump 58 percent to 36 percent. But Iraq War vet Matt Morgan (D), has
posted solid fundraising numbers and pushed an anti-gridlock message that have kept him within reach of a potential
victory in a wave. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
MI-6 (Kalamazoo): Incumbent Rep. Fred Upton (R) has represented this district since 1986, and he’ll run again for his
seat despite being recruited heavily last year to challenge Debbie Stabenow in the Senate. The district had been
tiptoeing towards Democrats before 2016, and although Trump won handily, he only received 51 percent of the vote.
Democrats think physician Matt Longjohn (D) could keep things competitive here. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
*( 8pm ET poll close)
MI-7 (South central Michigan): It’ll be a rematch in this district between Rep. Tim Walberg (R) and former state
representative Gretchen Driskell (D), who ran against him in 2016 (Walberg won 55 percent to 40 percent). It’s not clear
how different the margins could get in a non-presidential year, but it’s worth watching. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
*( 8pm ET poll close)
MI-8 (Detroit suburbs): Democrats believe they have a compelling candidate in former CIA analyst Elissa Slotkin (D),
who served three tours in Iraq. She’s taking on Rep. Mike Bishop (R), who was first elected in 2014. Republicans got in
some trouble when the family of the late Sen. John McCain chastised them for using McCain’s criticism of Slotkin in a TV
ad. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).
*( 8pm ET poll close)
MI-11 (Detroit suburbs): Two young female candidates are facing off in this well-educated suburban district. Lena
Epstein (R), whose family owns an auto lubrication company, was Trump’s co-chair in the state. Haley Stevens (D) was
the chief of staff on Obama’s Auto Task Force, and has since been endorsed by Hillary Clinton. (Cook Political Report:
Lean D.)
*( 8pm ET poll close)

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Minnesota (Polls statewide close at 9pm ET)
MN-GOV (OPEN): Former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty lost the GOP primary here to Hennepin County Commissioner
Jeff Johnson (R), which shook up the race in August. While either GOP candidate may have been flawed, Johnson’s more
conservative record still shifted this race in Democrats’ direction. He faces Rep. Tim Walz (D), whose relatively moderate
record could serve him well statewide. (Cook Political Report: Likely D).
MN-SEN (B): Both of Minnesota’s senators are on the ballot this cycle, but the only potentially competitive race is the
seat held by Democratic appointee Sen. Tina Smith, who’s running to fill the remainder of Al Franken’s term. Smith, who
until recently was the state’s lieutenant governor, would have to run again in 2020 for a full term. Her GOP competitor is
state senator Karin Housley (R), who has low name recognition in the state. (Cook Political Report: Lean D).
MN-1 (Rochester): Minnesota is home to some of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities, including gubernatorial Dem
nominee Tim Walz’s old seat, which went for Trump by a whopping 53 to 38 percent. The GOP’s candidate isn’t exactly a
new face; Jim Hagedorn (R), the son of a former congressman, has run for the seat three times before. He faces former
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Dan Feehan (D). Outside groups have hammered Feehan relentlessly, including
with TV ads featuring Colin Kaepernick and George Soros. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
MN-2 (Twin Cities suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Jason Lewis (R) barely beat rival Angie Craig (D) in 2016, and the two are
back for a rematch this cycle. Lewis took heat this year when journalists unearthed controversial comments he made
about women and LGBT people (Craig is gay) on his conservative radio show. Between those comments, Lewis’s proTrump voting record and the president’s sinking approval in the state, Craig has a good shot here. (Cook Political Report:
Lean D.)
MN-3 (Twin Cities suburbs): Last cycle, Democrats tried to seriously challenge Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) for the first time
since his election in 2008, but fell far short even though Hillary Clinton bested Trump in the area by 9 points. But his
challenger this cycle — an executive with Talenti gelato and Belvedere Vodka, Dean Phillips (D) — is able to target
Paulsen for his votes on Republican health care and tax bills. Republicans are countering that Phillips at one point failed
to offer health care to employees when his coffee business first launched. (Cook Political Report: Lean D).
MN-8 (Iron Range): With the departure of Democrat Rick Nolan from this Trump-favoring Iron Range district,
Republicans think they have their best pickup opportunity of the cycle. St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber (R)
is a onetime cop who has noted in his ads that he once played for the Detroit Red Wings franchise. He faces Nolan’s
former campaign manager and former state representative Joe Radinovich (D). (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)

Nebraska (Polls close statewide at 9pm ET)
NE-2 (Omaha suburbs): Democrats were surprised when progressive insurgent Kara Eastman (D) beat former Dem Rep.
Brad Ashford in the primary here. Eastman, a non-profit executive, will face Rep. Don Bacon (R) in a district that barely
voted for Trump in 2016. Eastman may be too liberal to win here, and she’s gotten little outside help from national
Democrats. (Cook Political Report: Lean R).

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New Mexico (Polls close statewide at 9pm ET)
NM-GOV (OPEN): Term-limited GOP Gov. Susana Martinez is leaving office, setting up a clash between two members of
the House: Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) and Rep. Steve Pearce (R). The state’s blue tilt makes Lujan Grisham the
favorite. (Cook Political Report: Lean D).
NM-SEN: Incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) was already the far-and-away favorite, and the presence of independent
candidate and former Gov. Gary Johnson solidifies his spot at the top of polls. He faces contractor Mick Rich (R). (Cook
Political Report: Solid D).
NM-2 (Southern New Mexico): This rural district voted for Trump by 10 points, but it’s been represented by Democrats
before. Democrats are impressed with their candidate, Las Cruces water rights attorney Xochitl Torres Small (D), who
has deep roots in the community. She’s up against state representative Yvette Herrell (R), who won her own
contentious primary by emphasizing her credentials as a “Trump conservative” (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).

New York (Polls close statewide at 9pm ET)
NY-GOV: After easily brushing off a primary challenge from ‘Sex and the City’ star Cynthia Nixon, Gov. Andrew Cuomo
(D) should cruise to victory over Marc Molinaro (R). But with Cuomo’s 2020 ambitions clear, observers will be keeping
an eye on the coalition he builds here. (Cook Political Report: Solid D).
NY-1 (Eastern Long Island): First elected in 2014, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) is used to being targeted by Democrats after
surviving a well-funded challenge two years ago. The district voted for Trump by a 12 point margin, helping pull him to
an easy victory. Without Trump on the ballot, Perry Gershon (D), a commercial real estate businessman, could get
closer. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
NY-11 (Staten Island): Republicans dodged a potential crisis when primary voters rejected convicted felon Michael
Grimm in favor of incumbent Rep. Dan Donovan (R). Staten Island is a famously Trump-friendly enclave despite its
proximity to New York City’s liberal boroughs. But Democrats think their candidate here, Afghan War vet Max Rose (D),
can keep things competitive. (Cook Political Report: Lean R).
NY-19 (Northern Hudson Valley): This Catskills-area district swung hard for Trump in 2016 after going for Barack Obama
by six points in 2012. Rep. John Faso (R) won this seat last cycle when he fended off well-funded campaign reformer
Zephyr Teachout. This cycle, Democrats nominated Rhodes Scholar and Harvard law graduate Antonio Delgado (D).
Republican attacks on Delgado from outside groups have almost exclusively focused on rap lyrics Delgado, who is black,
wrote a decade ago. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
NY-22: (Central Upstate): Democrats have argued that Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) is too conservative for this district,
although she was aided in her first 2016 win by Trump’s popularity in this historically Republican area. Tenney got in
trouble earlier this year for suggesting that mass shooters tend to be Democrats. Republicans have aggressively tried to
discredit Anthony Brindisi (D) by tying him to Cuomo and Nancy Pelosi. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).
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NY-24: (Syracuse): Incumbent Rep. John Katko (R) sits in a district that went for Hillary Clinton by four points, but he has
worked to build a reputation based on his dedication to local issues. He’s expected to beat back a challenge from
professor and grassroots activist Dana Balter (D), but polling has gotten close as the election approaches. (Cook Political
Report: Lean R).
NY-27 (Buffalo suburbs): It’s a testament to the GOP DNA and Trump loyalty in this district that Rep. Chris Collins (R),
who was indicted for insider trader charges but failed to get off the ballot, is still the slight favorite to win reelection
over Nate McMurray (D), a locally-born attorney. (Cook Political Report rating: Lean R).

North Dakota (Early polls close at 8pm ET. Latest poll close is 9pm ET.)
ND-SEN: Incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) is considered the Senate’s most endangered Democrat, particularly in the
wake of her vote against the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh. While she has built a strong brand as a neighborly North
Dakotan who puts the state’s agricultural, energy and Second Amendment interests first, Heitkamp is running in one of
the reddest states against a Republican who already has a statewide win under his belt. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R), the
state’s at-large representative, has been vocal about being talked into a run by Trump himself. (Cook Political Report:
Lean R).

South Dakota (Early polls close at 8pm ET. Latest poll close is 9pm ET.)
SD-GOV (OPEN): Rep. Kristi Noem (R) is the GOP nominee for this open seat in usually reliably red South Dakota. But
rival state Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton (D), has a pretty remarkable bio: He’s 34 years old and a former
professional rodeo athlete who was paralyzed in an accident. Democrats may be able to keep this closer than Noem
would like due to her association with unpopular House leaders. (Cook Political Report rating: Toss Up).

Texas (Early polls close at 8pm ET. Latest poll close is 9pm ET.)
TX-GOV: Incumbent Gov. Gregg Abbott (R) is popular in the state and remains a lock for re-election, but the margins will
still be worth watching as analysts look for signs of a new Democratic coalition in the Lone Star State. His challenger is
Lupe Valdez (D), a Latina and lesbian who served as the sheriff of Dallas County. (Cook Political Report: Solid R).
TX-SEN: A combination of low favorability for Sen. Ted Cruz (R) — a onetime presidential candidate who had a famously
fraught relationship with Donald Trump before ultimately wholeheartedly backing him — and a dynamic Democratic
candidate has made this one of the most closely-watched races in the country. Beto O’Rourke (D), a telegenic 45 yearold who has represented El Paso in Congress since 2012, has made rejection of PAC funds a cause célèbre, and he’s
emphasized his willingness to travel to every part of the state to make his case. Cruz has attacked O’Rourke for his views
on immigration and the NFL protests — which are probably too liberal for the state, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to
statewide office in 24 years. But O’Rourke’s unique campaign and wildly successful fundraising (he topped $38 million in
a single quarter) has made this one a top race to watch. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
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TX-2 (Houston suburbs): The more compelling candidate in this open seat is Dan Crenshaw (R), a former Navy SEAL who
wears an eye patch after losing an eye in an IED blast in Afghanistan. He’s up against Todd Litton (D), an after-school
non-profit program leader. The suburban makeup of the district makes it less hospitable to Trump than other areas of
the state, giving Democrats some hope that they can keep things competitive. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
*(8pm ET poll close)
TX-7 (Houston suburbs): This affluent area outside of Houston, once a GOP stronghold, isn’t Trump Country. After
backing Romney by double digits, voters here narrowly picked Clinton over Trump. Establishment Democrats have been
optimistic about the race against Rep. John Culberson (R) all cycle, but they had a scare during the spring primary when
a progressive insurgent gave a scare to their preferred candidate, Lizzie Fletcher (D). Fletcher ultimately prevailed, and
she has run a solid campaign emphasizing the dynamism of the changing district. Culberson has had sluggish fundraising,
annoying DC GOP groups who have long been raising the alarm here. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).
*(8pm ET poll close)
TX-21 (San Antonio suburbs): In this open seat, former Ted Cruz chief of staff Chip Roy (R) will face off against Joseph
Kopser (D), a former Army officer who served in Iraq. If Democrats have a chance here, it’s because of Trump’s middling
52 percent showing in the district in 2016. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
*(8pm ET poll close)
TX-22 (Houston southwest suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Pete Olson (R), who was first elected in 2008, faces a challenge
from former Foreign Service officer Sri Preston Kulkarni (D). In this swiftly diversifying and well-educated district, Olson
should stay on his toes despite the seat’s Republican lean. (Cook Political Report: Lean R).
*(8pm ET poll close)
TX-23 (San Antonio): Incumbent Will Hurd (R) is, in some ways, a Republican Beto O’Rourke — a dynamic campaigner
and fundraiser who’s seen as the future of his party in Texas and beyond. Hurd has defied the odds by being elected and
reelected once despite sitting in a district that went for Clinton 49-46 percent and is nearly 70 percent Hispanic. He’s
gone so far as so suggest in a New York Times op-ed that Trump is being manipulated by Russia. Democrats also have a
dynamic candidate in veteran Gina Ortiz Jones (D), who would be the first openly lesbian vet to serve in Congress. (Cook
Political Report: Lean R).
TX-24 (Fort Worth suburbs): It’s a rematch here between Rep. Kenny Marchant (R) and 2016 contender Jan McDowell
(D), a CPA who spent little money two years ago but still held Marchant to a victory at 56 percent. (Cook Political Report:
Likely R).
*(8pm ET poll close)
TX-31 (Round Rock): Incumbent Rep. John Carter (R) is seeking a ninth term, but he faces a dynamic Democratic
challenger in M.J. Hegar (D), whose viral “Doors” ad won her national attention and an influx of fundraising. Hegar is a
42 year-old former Air Force combat pilot; Carter is 76. The district is reliably conservative; if Hegar keeps it close,
Republicans are having a bad night. (Cook Political Report: Likely R.)
*(8pm ET poll close)

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TX-32 (Dallas suburbs): A combination of a compelling Democratic candidate, a quickly moderating suburban district
and a Republican incumbent who hasn’t faced a competitive race for 14 years puts this one squarely in the list of races
to watch. Colin Allred (D) is a 35 year-old African-American civil rights lawyer and former NFL player who went from
being raised by a single mom to earning a law degree at Berkeley. He’s challenging vulnerable Rep. Pete Sessions (R), a
former NRCC chair. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
*(8pm ET poll close)

Wisconsin (Polls statewide close at 9pm ET)
WI-GOV: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) gained national fame for his survival of a recount challenge, his successful
reelection and his unsuccessful run for president. But his effort to secure another term is proving to be one of his most
harrowing political tests yet, particularly with President Donald Trump’s growing unpopularity in the state. He’s facing
Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers (D). Much of the race has focused on education issues, with Walker
touting his reforms on education and his allies pummeling Evers on an incident during his tenure involving a teacher who
viewed pornography at a school. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
WI-SEN: Walker ally Leah Vukmir (R) is the Republican nominee in the race to oust Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). Earlier in
the cycle, Trump’s unexpected 2016 appeal made this seat look very much in play, and GOP outside groups spent heavily
to brand Baldwin as a liberal. But Vukmir had to muscle through a late primary in August, leaving her only a few months
to pivot to the general election — and Trump’s approval in the state has eroded. (Cook Political Report: Likely D.)
WI-1 (Racine): House Speaker Paul Ryan’s retirement announcement threw DC into a tizzy, but it also upended the
political world in Wisconsin, where Ryan has served in his home district near Janesville since 1998. Randy Bryce (D)
quickly built a Democratic following under his Twitter moniker @IronStache, a play on his career as an iron worker,
veteran and blue-collar background. He faces former Ryan staffer Bryan Steil (R). Bryce has been dogged by a record of
arrests, including a DUI in 1988 — something Republicans, recognizing the optics of losing the seat — have not been
afraid to feature in ads. (Cook Political Report: Lean R)
WI-6 (Oshkosh): Republican Dan Grothman hasn’t faced a particularly competitive race since being elected in 2014, but
a well-funded challenger could give him a scare. Democrat Dan Kohl is the nephew of former Sen. Herb Kohl (of the
Kohl’s department story empire) and the former assistant general manager of the Milwaukee Bucks. (Cook Political
Report: Likely R)

Wyoming (Polls statewide close at 9pm ET)
No competitive races.

33

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (10pm ET)
10pm ET
Iowa (Polls statewide close at 10 pm ET)
IA-GOV: Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is facing a more difficult-than-expected race to win a full term (She was
sworn in as the replacement for Terry Branstad after the popular Republican was named as Trump’s ambassador to
China.) But she’s had declining approval ratings since early in her tenure. She faces former Equitable Life CEO Fred
Hubbell (D), who has been competitive in polling since locking down the nomination. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
IA-1 (Northeast Iowa): Republicans have long grumbled that Rep. Rod Blum (R) failed to play defense earlier in a district
that voted for Barack Obama twice. Democrats like their chances with Abby Finkenauer (D), a 28 year-old state
representative and pipefitter’s daughter who has emphasized her ties to the state. Perhaps the biggest sign that Blum is
in trouble: GOP outside groups haven’t spent much to shore him up. (Cook Political Report: Lean D.)
IA-3 (Des Moines): This Des Moines area seat is one that often swings as the majority changes hands. It swung for
Barack Obama in 2012 by four points, only to back Trump by three points four years later. Rep. David Young (R), who
has served since 2014, is a former chief of staff to Chuck Grassley. She faces Cindy Axne (D), a digital design
businesswoman. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
IA-4: (Western Iowa): Few followers of immigration policy are unfamiliar with Rep. Steve King (R), one of the House’s
most controversial figures. A string of King’s statements over the last year, including some recent retweets of white
nationalists, have prompted Democratic donors to flood King’s opponents with donations. His rival in this deep red
district is former professional minor league baseball pitcher J.D. Scholten (D). Scholten’s fundraising means he’ll be able
to focus on King’s unpopular tax and health care votes on the airwaves. In late October, the NRCC chairman disavowed
King’s race-fueled comments. (Cook Political Report: Lean R).

Montana (Polls statewide close at 10 pm ET)
MT-SEN: Montana’s Senate contest will be the battle of the brand versus the bedrock. Montana was one of Trump’s
strongest states in 2016: he won 50 of its 56 counties and bested Clinton by almost 20 points. On the other hand, Sen.
Jon Tester (D), first elected in 2006, has famously built a personal brand around his signature flat top haircut and loss of
three fingers in a meat grinder as a kid. Tester, the ranking member on the Veterans Affairs committee, additionally
earned the personal ire of Trump after his role in pushing his personal physician, Ronny Jackson, out of contention for
VA Secretary. Democrats have tried to brand challenger and state auditor Matt Rosendale (R) as an outsider and
money-grubbing real estate developer, but he’s been pretty resilient in the face of the attacks. Keep an eye on the
Libertarian candidate in this race, too, who could siphon votes from Rosendale. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up).
MT-AL (Whole state): Incumbent Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) won some national notoriety after narrowly winning a special
election in the state last year just a day after assaulting a reporter. That event was so close to the day of the election
that it may have ultimately have occurred too late to have an impact, but it’s likely to be well-remembered in
November. (At a rally in Montana, Trump approvingly referenced the incident, too.) He’s also running against a woman,
state representative Kathleen Williams (D), who’s run a credible campaign in a red state. (Cook Political Report: Lean R).

34

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (10pm ET)

Nevada (Polls statewide close at 10 pm ET)
NV-GOV (OPEN): The race to replace term-limited Brian Sandoval pits state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) against
Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D). Polling has shown the race to be very tight. (Cook Political Report: Toss
Up.)
NV-SEN: Incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) is the Senate’s most endangered incumbent Republican — a result of
skepticism from pro-Trump voters that he’s loyal to the president while moderates in the state consider him too much
of a partisan. He faces freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D). Both sides acknowledge that this is likely to be a squeaker,
although Democrats seem a bit more optimistic about their chances in a state Clinton won by two points in 2016. (Cook
Political Report: Toss Up.)
NV-3 (Las Vegas suburbs): With some public prodding from the White House, Danny Tarkanian (R) stepped aside from
his planned run against Dean Heller to run again for this seat, which he lost by a point in 2016. Tarkanian is the kind of
perennial candidate that may make voters roll their eyes — he has run and lost in three congressional races in the last
four cycles. He’s up against Susie Lee (D), a non-profit executive whose main negative may be her family’s personal
wealth. (Cook Political Report: Lean D).
NV-4: (Las Vegas suburbs): Democrats should be well positioned in the contest to replace Democratic Rep. Ruben
Kihuen, who announced his retirement amid sexual harassment allegations. The race pits former congressman Cresent
Hardy (R) against former congressman Steven Horsford (D). But Republican outside groups have been very aggressive in
targeting Horsford over financial woes, which is keeping this race in play. (Cook Political Report: Lean D).

Utah (Polls statewide close at 10 pm ET)
UT-SEN: It’s not a competitive contest, but a reminder: Senate nominee Mitt Romney (R) should be on a glide path to
the Senate, where he’ll likely be called upon by moderate Republicans to push back on the president. He faces Salt Lake
City councilwoman Jenny Wilson (D). (Cook Political Report: Solid R.)
UT-4 (Salt Lake City suburbs): Trump’s unique unpopularity in genteel, LDS-church dominant Utah has made life difficult
for Rep. Mia Love (R). She faces Salt Lake County mayor Ben McAdams (D), who already represents a good chunk of the
district in his county role. McAdams’ reputation as a pragmatist could keep things close. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)

35

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (11pm ET)
11pm ET
California (Polls statewide close at 11 pm ET)
CA-GOV: Republicans did end up with a candidate in the statewide race for governor — which was in question due to
the state’s top-two primary system. An endorsement from Donald Trump for businessman John Cox (R) may have lifted
him to a distant second against frontrunner and Lieutenant Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). Having a gubernatorial nominee at
the top of the ticket may marginally help juice GOP turnout down the ballot (in addition to the presence of a gas tax
initiative), but otherwise this won’t be a suspenseful race. (Cook Political Report: Solid D).
CA-SEN: Incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) faces a nominal challenge from fellow Democrat and state senator Kevin
de León, who has run to Feinstein’s left. He has tried in recent weeks to capitalize on criticism of her handling of the
Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearing, but he still trails significantly in public polls. (Cook Political Report: Solid D.)
CA-4 (Lake Tahoe): This is the kind of GOP seat that could flip in a big wave: A strong newcomer in former USAID official
Jess Morse (D), versus a five-term incumbent —Rep. Tom McClintock (R) — who has lagged in fundraising in a district
that went for Trump by a 53-39 margin. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
CA-7 (Sacramento suburbs): Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D) nearly had his campaign sunk by a campaign finance scandal
in 2016, but he’s performing better against Marine veteran Andrew Grant (R) in this Clinton +12 district. (Cook Political
Report: Likely D).
CA-10 (Central Valley): The seat held by Rep. Jeff Denham (R) is one of 23 represented by a Republican but won by
Hillary Clinton, making it a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats. Denham has tried to buck typical GOP rhetoric on
the issue of immigration in this district, which is about 40 percent Hispanic. He’s up against venture capitalist Josh
Harder (D). The result may depend on how Latinos turn out — and how they break. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
CA-16: (Central Valley): Democratic Rep. Jim Costa (D), who’s served for seven terms, has his strongest challenger ever
in Elizabeth Heng (R), the33 year-old child of Cambodian refugees. But it’s still a district with strong Democratic DNA.
(Cook Political Report: Likely D).
CA-21 (Central Valley): Incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R) easily survived his 2016 reelection even though his district
backed Clinton by 14 points — a victory that can be attributed to his deft handling of local issues in a district that is
heavily Hispanic and agricultural. Investor T.J. Cox (D) has been messaging on Trump’s deportation policy, which could
test Valadao’s independent brand. (Cook Political Report: Likely R).
CA-25 (Northern LA County): Democrats think they got a top-tier candidate in Katie Hill (D), a 30 year-old nonprofit
executive who rock climbs and owns horses. She’ll take on Rep. Steve Knight (R), who’s 20 years her senior and
famously told a protestor in 2015 “If you touch me again, I’ll drop your ass.” (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)

36

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (11pm ET, continued)
CA-39 (Northern Orange County): National Democrats played hard in the primary here to get lottery winner and
philanthropist Gil Cisneros (D) on the ballot in the contest to replace retiring Republican Ed Royce. Republicans are also
pleased with their recruit, former assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who would be the first Korean-American woman
elected to Congress. Cisneros hasn’t exactly turned out to be a star candidate, and he’s been dogged by an
uncorroborated accusation of inappropriate sexual comments. (His accuser has since withdrawn her complaint.)
Democrats feel less enthusiastic about winning this district than other competitive races in California (Cook Political
Report: Toss Up).
CA-45 (Inland Orange County): Incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters (R) had previously been seen as a good fit for this wealthy
district, but Democrats are bullish about messaging on her votes for the Republican health care and tax bills. Their
candidate, law professor Katie Porter (D), has been a strong fundraiser, although Republicans are sure to remind voters
of her support from Elizabeth Warren. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
CA-48 (Coastal Orange County): The affinity that Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) has demonstrated for Russia has been so
well-documented that opponents are running ads mocking him as the Kremlin-endorsed candidate in the race. That
reputation — and his votes to repeal Obamacare — have Democrats pleased with their chances to oust him. Their
candidate, real estate businessman Harley Rouda (D, has deep pockets, although Republicans think they have a good
opposition research book on Rouda’s real estate business. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)
CA-49 (Northern San Diego County): Rep. Darrell Issa would have been the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in
the House had he chosen to run for reelection. His decision to retire leaves a district open that went for Hillary Clinton
by a margin of more than eight points. The race pits GOP Board of Equalizers member Diane Harkey (R) against
environmental attorney Mike Levin (D). The national climate means this race is looking like a good pickup for
Democrats. (Cook Political Report: Lean D.)
CA-50 (San Diego County): Democrats had hoped to get a stronger candidate in this district in the event of the
indictment of Rep. Duncan Hunter (R), but they ended up with one who is viewed as fairly flawed. Former Obama Labor
Department official Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) is to the left of this heavily military district, and he’s had to disavow his
grandfather, who was one of the leaders of the massacre at the 1972 Munich Olympics. Hunter has falsely insinuated in
ads that Campa-Najjar himself presents a national security threat, earning condemnation from national media. Despite
the indictment, Hunter may well remain in his seat. (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)

Hawaii (Polls statewide close at 11 pm ET)
No competitive races

Idaho (Earliest polls close at 10pm; final poll closing is 11pm ET)
ID-GOV: While it’s not a competitive race, Paulette Jordan (D) has gotten a fair amount of national attention by being
the first Native American women to win a major party nomination for governor. (She’d also be the first female governor
of the state if she won.) But Idaho remains reliably Republican, and Lt. Gov. Brad Little (R) is expected to cruise to a win.
(Cook Political Report: Solid R).
37

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (11pm ET, continued)

Oregon (Earliest polls close at 10pm; final poll closing is 11pm ET)
OR-GOV: Since replacing resigning Gov. John Kitzhaber in the wake of scandals in 2016, incumbent Gov. Kate Brown (D)
has faced some trouble spots, including education and foster care issues in the state and a proposed energy tax
increase. Republicans nominated orthopedic surgeon and state representative Knute Buehler (R), who will try to
capitalize on Brown’s middling approval numbers. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)

Washington (Polls statewide close at 11 pm ET)
WA-3 (Vancouver): Incumbent Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler (R) was previously considered to be in a safe seat — she
enjoyed a pretty solid favorability rating and didn’t have the baggage of having voted for unpopular GOP health care
bills. But Democrats say the race has been breaking their way in recent weeks. Their candidate is political science
professor Carolyn Long (D). (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)
WA-5 (Spokane): If capturing Paul Ryan’s seat would be the ultimate coup for Democrats, winning here would be a close
second — and would knock out a sitting member of House leadership. Former WSU Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown (D)
has mounted a strong challenger to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R), whom Democrats have painted as a creature of
Washington detached from everyday constituents. That strong challenge was reinforced by McMorris Rodgers’ weak
performance in the state’s top-two primary in August. Worth noting: In the 1994 GOP wave, this same district booted
another member of ruling party leadership: House Speaker Tom Foley. (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)
WA-8 (Seattle suburbs): Candidate Dino Rossi (R) is hoping that this is finally his year. A failed candidate for two
statewide offices in the last decade, Rossi is well-funded in his attempt to fill the open seat of retiring Dave Reichert. But
this is still a district that voted for Clinton by three points, and Democrats think they’ll be able to paint Rossi as a de facto
incumbent. That’s a contrast to their candidate, newcomer and pediatrician Kim Schrier (D), who won a very
competitive primary. (Cook Political Report: Toss Up.)

38

 The VIEWERS’ GUIDE: COMPETITIVE RACES, BY POLL CLOSING TIME (1 am ET)

1am ET
Alaska (First polls close at 11pm ET. Final polls close at 1pm ET)
AK-GOV: What was once a three-way race between incumbent independent Gov. Bill Walker, Mark Begich(D) and Mike
Dunleavy (R) went topsy-turvey in mid-October, when Walker abruptly suspended his campaign. That move came after
his lieutenant governor resigned for unspecified inappropriate comments. In a three-way race, Dunleavy was favored,
but the new dynamic could be unpredictable. Walker has endorsed Begich, BUT he will still remain on the ballot despite
his decision to suspend the campaign. (Cook Political Report: Lean R.)
AK-AL (entire state): Incumbent Rep. Don Young (R) has served for 23 terms and has survived a few close elections in
his time. This cycle, his main opponent is Alyse Galvin (I), an independent who ran in the Democratic primary and won,
which could create a new and more challenging dynamic for him this cycle. (Cook Political Report: Lean R).

39

 A TIMELINE OF AMERICAN POLITICS, 2017-2018
Jan. 20, 2017: Donald Trump takes the oath as the nation's 45th president
Jan. 27: Trump, in an executive action, signs his controversial travel ban
Feb. 13: National Security Adviser Michael Flynn resigns just after the Washington Post first reported that the Justice
Department had informed the White House that Flynn could be subject to blackmail
Feb. 20: Trump names H.R. McMaster as his new national security adviser.
March 20: FBI Director Comey confirms his agency is investigation allegations that Trump's 2016 campaign might have
contacts with Russian entities. Comey also says there's "no information that supports" Trump's wiretapping charges
against Obama.
April 7: Senate confirms Trump Supreme Court pick Neil Gorsuch
May 9: Trump fires Comey as FBI director
May 10: In Oval Office meeting, Trump tells Russian officials, "I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He was crazy, a real nut
job," he said, according to the New York Times. "I faced great pressure because of Russia. That's taken off."
May 11: In interview with NBC's Lester Holt, Trump said he firing Comey regardless of what Deputy Attorney General
Rosenstein recommended. And he suggested the Russia investigation was a reason behind the dismissal. "When I
decided to [fire Comey], I said to myself, I said you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story."
May 17: Rosenstein appoints former FBI Director Robert Mueller as a special counsel in Russia probe
June 1: Trump announces that U.S. is withdrawing from Paris climate agreement
June 20: Republican Karen Handel defeats Democrat Jon Ossoff in the GA-6 special election
July 28: Senate health-care bill fails, with McCain casting the deciding "no" vote; Trump replaces chief of staff Reince
Priebus with DHS Secretary John Kelly
July 31: Anthony Scaramucci ousted as communications director – after just 10 days
Aug. 8: Trump promises "fire and fury like the world has never seen" if North Korea continues to threaten the United
States
Aug. 12: In response to violence in Charlottesville, Trump says: "We condemn in strongest possible terms this egregious
display of hatred, bigotry, and violence on many sides."
Sept. 29: HHS Secretary Tom Price resigns amid criticism of his use of taxpayer-funded chartered filghts
Oct. 30: Paul Manafort and Rick Gates are indicted in Mueller probe; George Papadopoulos pleads guilty
Dec. 1: Flynn pleads guilty for lying to the FBI
Dec. 12: Democrat Doug Jones defeats Republican Roy Moore in Alabama’s special Senate contest, reducing the GOP’s
Senate majority to 51-49
Dec. 22: President Trump signs GOP tax legislation into law

40

 A TIMELINE OF AMERICAN POLITICS, 2017-2018, continued

Jan. 30, 2018: Trump delivers State of the Union address to Congress
Feb. 16: Mueller indicts 13 Russians and three companies regarding Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential
election
Feb. 19: Pennsylvania's Supreme Court releases new congressional map, giving Democrats a shot at picking up as many
as six congressional seats in the state
March 13: President Trump fires Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who is later replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo
March 22: National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster resigns; he’s later replaced by John Bolton
April 9: FBI raids the offices and home of longtime Trump lawyer/fixer Michael Cohen, seizing business records, emails
and documents
April 11: House Speaker Paul Ryan announces that he won’t run for re-election
May 8: Trump announces withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal
June 12: Trump, in Singapore, holds summit with North Korea's Kim Jong-Un; Rep. Mark Sanford, R-S.C., loses GOP
primary to challenger Katie Arrington
June 20: Trump signs executive order reversing administration’s policy of separating children from their parents at the
border
June 26: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez upsets Rep. Joe Crowley, D-N.Y., in Democratic primary; Supreme Court upholds
Trump’s revised travel ban
June 27: Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy announces retirement from the U.S. Supreme Court
July 5: EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt resigns amid numerous ethics controversies
July 9: Trump nominates Brett Kavanaugh to fill Anthony Kennedy's seat on the Supreme Court
July 13: Special counsel Robert Mueller indicts 12 Russian intelligence officials for hacking Democratic organizations and
the Clinton campaign
July 16: In a news conference with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Trump blames both countries for the state of U.S.Russia relations ("I think that the United States has been foolish. I think we've all been foolish"), and he appears to side
with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies on the question whether Russia interfered in the 2016 election ("I will tell you
that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today")
Aug. 21: Cohen, Trump’s longtime lawyer/fixer, pleads guilty; jury finds Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort guilty
on eight counts
Aug. 25: Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., passes away
Sept. 5: Anonymous senior Trump administration official publishes New York Times op-ed calling the president amoral
and erratic, and says many in the administration are working to thwart his agenda
Sept. 7: Papadopoulos, the former Trump campaign adviser, is sentenced to 14 days in prison for lying to the FBI early in
inquiry on election interference
Sept. 14: Manfort pleads guilty, agrees to cooperate with Mueller’s investigative team

41

 A TIMELINE OF AMERICAN POLITICS, 2017-2018, continued
Sept. 16: Speaking publicly to the Washington Post, Christine Blasey Ford accuses Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her
more than three decades ago
Sept. 26: Ford and a defiant Kavanaugh testify, separately, before the Senate Judiciary Committee
Oct. 6: Kavanaugh wins Senate confirmation by a narrow 50-48 vote
Oct. 9: UN Ambassador Nikki Haley announces her resignation from the Trump administration
Oct. 10: Hurricane Michael strikes the Florida panhandle as a Category 4 storm.
Oct. 19: Saudi Arabia said 18 of its citizens were responsible for killing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi – after telling
different stories for more than two weeks
Oct. 22: Trump tweets about the caravan of migrants assembled in southern Mexico, alleging that "criminals and
unknown Middle Easterners are mixed in"
Oct. 23: Trump admits there's no proof to his claim that Middle Easterners are part of the migrant caravan: "There's no
proof of anything. There's no proof of anything. But they could very well be"
Oct. 24: Officials reveal that pipe bombs were sent to prominent Democrats, including Barack Obama and Hillary
Clinton, as well as to CNN
Oct. 26: Authorities charge Caesar Sayoc, a fervent Trump supporter, of sending more than a dozen pipe bomb packages
targeted at prominent Democrats
Oct. 27: An anti-Semitic gunman opens fire at Pittsburgh synagogue, killing 11 worshipers

42

 WHOM HAVE THE 2020 POTENTIALS ENDORSED?
(A brief list of endorsements for Senate and gubernatorial candidates, by state)

Candidate

Office

State BIDEN SANDERS WARREN HARRIS BOOKER

Kyrsten Sinema, Arizona

Senate

AZ

Gavin Newsom, California

Governor

CA

X
X

Dianne Feinstein, California (incumbent) Senate

CA

X

Tom Carper, Delaware (incumbent)

Senate

DE

X

Andrew Gillum, Florida

Governor

FL

Bill Nelson, Florida

Senate

FL

X

Stacey Abrams, Georgia

Governor

GA

X

Paulette Jordan, Idaho

Governor

ID

Joe Donnelly, Indiana (incumbent)

Senate

IN

X

Ben Jealous, Maryland

Governor

MD

X

Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan

Governor

MI

X

Debbie Stabenow, Michigan

Senate

MI

Tina Smith, Minnesota (incumbent)

Senate

MN

Mike Espy, Mississippi

Senate

MS

Jon Tester, Montana (incumbent)

Senate

MT

X

Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota
(incumbent)

Senate

ND

X

Michelle Lujan Grisham, New Mexico

Governor

NM

X

Jacky Rosen, Nevada

Senate

NV

X

Richard Cordray, Ohio

Governor

OH

X

Sherrod Brown, Ohio (incumbent)

Senate

OH

X

Bob Casey, Pennsylvania (incumbent)

Senate

PA

X

James Smith, South Carolina

Governor

SC

X

Christine Halliquist, Vermont

Governor

VT

X

WI

X

Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin (incumbent) Senate

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X
X

X
X
X

X

X
X
X
X

X

X
X
X

X

X
X

X

43

 WHOM HAVE THE 2020 POTENTIALS ENDORSED?, continued
(A brief list of endorsements for House candidates, by state)
Candidate

Office State BIDEN SANDERS WARREN HARRIS BOOKER

TJ Cox, California

House CA

X

X

Katie Hill, California

House CA

X

Katie Porter, California

House CA

X

Gil Cisneros, California

House CA

X

Harley Rouda, California

House CA

X

Mike Levin, California

House CA

X

Jason Crow, Colorado

House CO

X

Joe Neguse, Colorado

House CO

X

Jahana Hayes, Connecticut

House CT

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Florida

House FL

Sanjay Patel, Florida

House FL

Abby Finkenauer, Iowa

House IA

Cindy Axne, Iowa

House IA

JD Scholten, Iowa

House IA

Lauren Underwood, Illinois

House IL

X

Brendan Kelly, Illinois

House IL

X

Jesus Garcia, Illinois

House IL

X

Liz Watson, Indiana

House IN

X

James Thompson, Kansas

House KS

X

Elissa Slotkin, Michigan

House MI

X

Haley Stevens, Michigan

House MI

X

Dan Feehan, Minnesota

House MN

X

Kara Eastmen, Nebraska

House NE

Josh Gottheimer, New Jersey

House NJ

X

Andy Kim, New Jersey

House NJ

X

Tom Malinowski, New Jersey

House NJ

X

Mikie Sherrill, New Jersey

House NJ

X

Donald Norcross, New Jersey

House NJ

X
X

X

X
X

X

X
X
X

X

X
X
X
X
X
X

X

X

X
X

Xochitl Torres Small, New Mexico House NM

X

Ken Harbaugh, Ohio

House OH

X

Theresa Gasper, Ohio

House OH

George Scott, Pennsylvania

House PA

X

Chrissy Houlahan, Pennsylvania

House PA

X

Scott Wallace, Pennsylvania

House PA

Jess King, Pennsylvania

House PA

X

X
X

Joe Cunningham, South Carolina House SC

X

Lizzie Fletcher, Texas

House TX

X

Gina Ortiz-Jones, Texas

House TX

X

Joseph Kopser, Texas

House TX

Randy Bryce, Wisconsin

House WI

X
X

X

44

 EXIT POLLS: 2016
% of
electorate

Clinton

Trump

Gender
Male

47%

41%

52%

Female

53%

54%

41%

Age
18-29

19%

55%

36%

30-44

25%

51%

41%

45-64

40%

44%

52%

65 or older

16%

45%

52%

White education
by gender
White
women/college
grads
White
women/noncollege grads
White
men/college
grads
White men/ noncollege grads

% of
electorate

Clinton

Trump

20%

51%

44%

17%

34%

61%

17%

39%

53%

16%

23%

71%

Party ID

Race
White

71%

37%

57%

Democrat

36%

89%

8%

Black

12%

89%

8%

Republican

33%

8%

88%

Latino

11%

66%

28%

Independent

31%

42%

46%

Asian

4%

65%

27%

Other

3%

56%

36%

White
evangelical?
Yes

26%

16%

80%

No

74%

60%

34%

Gender by race
White men

34%

31%

62%

White women

37%

43%

52%

First time voter?

Black men

5%

82%

13%

Yes

10%

57%

38%

Black women

7%

94%

4%

No

90%

47%

47%

Latino men

5%

63%

32%

Latino women

6%

69%

25%

21%

41%

56%

48%

49%

46%

14%

49%

40%

14%

55%

37%

Approve

53%

84%

10%

Disapprove

45%

6%

89%

City over 50,000

34%

60%

34%

Suburbs

49%
17%

45%
34%

49%
61%

Education
College graduate

50%

52%

42%

No college
degree

50%

44%

51%

Race/ education
White college
graduates
White no college
degree
Non-white
college
graduates
Non-white no
college degree

Supreme Court
Most important
factor
An important
factor
A minor factor
Not a factor at all
Obama approval

37%

45%

48%

34%

29%

66%

13%

72%

22%

16%

76%

20%

Population

Small city/rural

45

 EXIT POLLS: 2010
% of
electorate

DEM

GOP

Gender
Male

48

41

55

Female

52

48

49

Age
18-29

12

55

42

30-44

24

46

50

45-64

43

45

53

65 or older

21

38

59

Race
White

77

37

60

Black

11

89

9

Latino

8

60

38

Asian

2

58

40

Other

2

53

44

Race/
education
White college
graduates
White no
college degree
Non-white
college
graduates
Non-white no
college degree

% of
electorate

DEM

GOP

42

39

58

35

33

63

9

70

28

13

75

23

Democrat

35

91

7

Republican

35

5

94

Independent

29

37

56

Evangelical?
White
evangelical
Christian
All others

25

19

77

75

55

42

Party ID

Gender by race
White men

38

34

62

White women

40

39

58

Black men

5

86

13

Black women

6

92

6

Latino men

4

55

44

Latino women

4

65

33

Education
College
graduate
No college
degree

*Education by
gender not
available in
2010 exit polls.

52

45

53

48

45

52

First time
voter?
First time
voters
All others

3

45

43

97

44

53

Obama
approval
Approve

44

85

14

Disapprove

55

11

84

Population
City over
50,000
Suburbs

31

56

41

49

42

55

Small city/rural

20

36

61

46

 EXIT POLLS: 2006
% of
electorate

DEM

GOP

% of
electorate

DEM

GOP

Gender
Male

49

50

47

Female

51

55

43

Education
College graduate

55

53

45

No college degree

45

53

46

Party ID
Democrat

38

93

7

Republican

36

8

91

Independent

26

57

39

24

28

70

76

60

38

43

14

84

57

82

16

City over 50,000

30

61

37

Suburbs

47

50

48

Small city/rural

24

48

50

Age
18-29

12

60

38

30-44

24

53

45

45-64

34

53

46

65 or older

29

50

48

Race
White

79

47

51

Black

10

89

10

Evangelical?

Latino

8

69

30

Asian

2

62

37

White evangelical
Christian
All others

Other

2

55

42

White men

39

44

53

Presidential
approval/Bush
Approve

White women

40

49

50

Disapprove

9

75

23

11

78

21

Gender by race

Non-white male
Non-white female

Population

*Education by
gender/race not available
in 2006 exit poll.

47