DES MOINES REGISTER/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL Study #2181 SELZER & COMPANY 801 Likely Iowa voters October 30—November 2, 2018 Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points 1,087 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. (If already voted, ask:) In the election for Iowa governor, for whom did you vote—[DEMOCRAT FRED HUBBELL / REPUBLICAN KIM REYNOLDS / LIBERTARIAN JAKE PORTER], or for someone else? (Rotate candidate names.) (If already voted and not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember? (Then code “mind is made up” in candidate support and skip to U.S. House race.) (If definitely vote, ask:) If the election for governor were held today and the candidates were [DEMOCRAT FRED HUBBELL / REPUBLICAN KIM REYNOLDS / LIBERTARIAN JAKE PORTER], for whom would you vote—[FRED HUBBELL/KIM REYNOLDS/JAKE PORTER] or for someone else? (Rotate candidate names.) (Ask only of those who will definitely vote and do not name a candidate as first choice): Toward which candidate would you say you are leaning, or support the most? Nov-18 n=801 Fred Hubbell Kim Reynolds Jake Porter Someone else Not sure/would not vote/don’t remember (VOL) Don’t want to tell 46 44 2 1 2 5 Sep-18 n=555 43 41 7 9 n/a (Asked only of definite voters who selected a candidate, but based on all likely voters:) Would you say your mind is made up to vote for (FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE), or could you still be persuaded to vote for another candidate? (If definite voters answered “not sure” for both first choice and leaning, then code as “No first choice” and skip to U.S. House race. If already voted, code as “mind is made up” and skip to House race.) All LV n=801 90 7 3 Hubbell supporters n=361 93 7 - Reynolds supporters n=358 92 7 1 - Mind is made up Could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate Not sure No first choice _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 1 (If already voted, ask:) In the election for U.S. Congress, for whom did you vote—the [DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE], [REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE], [LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE], someone else, or did you not vote? (Rotate which party is listed first.) (If definitely vote, ask:) If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the [DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE], [REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE], [LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE], someone else, or would you not vote? (Rotate which party is listed first.) (Dec-17: If the 2018 election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the [REPUBLICAN] or [DEMOCRATIC] candidate, someone else, or would you not vote? (Rotate which party is listed first.)) Republican candidate Democratic candidate Libertarian candidate* Someone else Would not/did not vote Not sure 2 2 10 1 10 Nov-18 39 45 2 Dec-17 38 43 7 * “Libertarian candidate” was not offered as a separate choice in Dec-17. I’m going to mention things some people look for in a governor. Regardless of how you are voting, please tell me for each if this better describes [KIM REYNOLDS] or [FRED HUBBELL]. (Rotate list, and rotate candidate names in the question.) Which one would be: A stronger leader Better at managing the state budget More honest A better reflection of Iowa values Better at understanding the issues in depth A better role model Better at working across party lines Kim Reynolds Fred Hubbell Not Sure 45 45 42 46 45 45 38 44 40 40 42 43 39 42 11 15 18 12 12 16 20 (If definitely voted:) For each of the following government policy areas, please tell me if this will or will not be a major consideration when you choose how you will vote in the November election—just answer yes or no. (Rotate. Mark all that apply. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.) (If already voted:) For each of the following government policy areas, please tell me if this was or was not a major consideration when you voted in the November election—just answer yes or no. (Rotate. Mark all that apply. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.) 64 74 77 57 65 75 60 1 2 Medicaid privatization Access to mental health services Tax policy Access to reproductive health care and birth control Gun policy State budget Abortion None of the above (VOL) Not sure _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 2 For each of the following campaign claims about what might happen if the opponent were elected, please tell me if you believe it to be true or not—you can just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.) Believe it Not Not Sure 32 49 54 45 14 6 46 40 47 45 7 15 Kim Reynolds would end IPERS, the state employees’ pension program Fred Hubbell would increase taxes on people like you Kim Reynolds would cut government services like education and health care Fred Hubbell would allow late-term abortions Do you think things here in Iowa are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? 2018 LV Nov-18 Sep-18 Jan-18 Right direction Wrong track Not sure 50 43 7 47 46 46 45 7 12 Terry Branstad served as governor of Iowa longer than any governor of any state. Regardless of whom you support for governor, which do you think is better for Iowa—continuing his path or making a change? 34 61 5 Continuing Branstad’s path Making a change Not sure I'm going to mention the names of some people in the news. (Dec-17: I'm going to mention the names of some people who are possible candidates for governor.) For each name I read, please tell me if your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know the person, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Net Favorable 2018 LV Kim Reynolds, the current Republican governor running for election Kim Reynolds, governor Kim Reynolds, Republican governor Fred Hubbell, businessman and Democrat running for governor Net Very Unfavorable Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Very Not Unfavorable Unfavorable Sure Nov-18 54 41 27 27 24 18 5 Sep-18 Jan-18 Dec-17 47 49 45 46 38 40 21 16 15 26 33 30 22 18 20 24 20 20 7 13 15 Nov-18 53 38 22 31 23 15 9 Sep-18 42 27 13 29 15 12 30 Fred Hubbell, Democrat and retired business executive Dec-17 31 18 10 21 11 7 51 Donald Trump, current president of the United States Nov-18 45 52 28 17 10 43 3 Sep-18 Jan-18 39 45 59 54 22 25 18 20 11 12 47 42 2 1 Nov-18 45 41 28 18 14 28 13 Donald Trump, president Brett Kavanaugh, the newest justice on the U.S. Supreme Court Which better reflects your view of what would be best for Iowa in the next few years: (Rotate options.) 45 42 13 To pay higher taxes and have state government provide more services To pay lower taxes and have state government provide fewer services Not sure _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 3 On a different topic now, would you say your vote for your representative to the U.S. House is or is not motivated by your opinion of what happened during the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court? (If it’s linked, ask:) Would you say this is a major factor or a minor factor in how you are voting? 25 15 51 9 Yes, motivated by Kavanaugh and a major factor Yes, motivated by Kavanaugh and a minor factor No, not motivated by Kavanaugh Not sure Compared to: Study #2174 555 likely voters in the 2018 general election Margin of error: ± 4.2 percentage points September 17-20, 2018 801 Iowa adults weighted by age, sex, and congressional district Study #2168 555 likely voters in the 2018 general election Margin of error: ± 4.2 percentage points January 28-31, 2018 801 Iowa adults weighted by age and sex Study #2167 546 Iowa likely voters in the 2018 general election Margin of error: ± 4.2 percentage points December 3-6, 2017 802 Iowa adults weighted by age and sex Study #2108 701 Iowa likely voters Margin of error: ± 3.7 percentage points October 28-31, 2014 1,026 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district ABOUT THE POLL The Iowa Poll, conducted October 30-November 2, 2018, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 801 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2018 general election for governor and other offices. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,087 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on the subsample of 801 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited. _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 4