Honolulu City/County Mitigation Plan – Hazus Loss Modelling Public Workshop: November 3, 2018 www.pdc.org Outline Hazus Applications Hurricane Lane “Late Turn” Scenario Hurricane Loss Modelling Tsunami Loss Modelling Flood Loss Modelling www.pdc.org Hazus Applications @vocr NATURAL - HAZARDS . IDENTIFICATION - INVENTORY MODELING COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT MITIGATION RESPONSE AND AWARENESS AND STRATEGIES RECOVERY PREPAREDNESS PLANNING AND EXERCISE SCENARIOS . PERFORMANCE MEASURES . BUILDING CODE ADMINISTRATION I GROUND TRUTHING . EUTURE LAND USE PLANNING QUICK SITUATION ASSESSMENT Hazus Hawaii Updates 2006-08: Post & Pier, Single Wall construction types and damage functions 2015-16: Hurricane windfield fixes, essential facility updates 2017: Hawaii tsunami scenarios (UH, ASCE, etc.) and modelling 2018: Honolulu Mitigation plan updates, site specific building data (DLNR Sea Level Rise building data), engineering classifications, essential facility and proposed infrastructure project updates www.pdc.org Hazus Hurricane Lane “Late Turn Scenario” • Hurricane Lane was a dangerous Cat 5 storm • Weakened and turned to West well before Oahu • Some earlier forecasts and models showed potential Oahu impacts • PDC provided scenario modelling as Lane approached for stakeholders interested in this “What If” scenario www.pdc.org Hazus Hurricane Lane “Late Turn Scenario” • Makes landfall on Oahu as Category 1 storm • Most of Oahu exposed to Cat 1 peak gusts (81-105 mph) • Sustained winds 74 – 95 mph. www.pdc.org Hazus Hurricane Lane “Late Turn Scenario” • 3,800 households are displaced due to severe damage to mostly light wood frame construction. • Most severe losses in Waikiki region. • Large post-event public shelter seeking population: 2,300 • Significant Residential Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) intended to fast track Presidential Disaster Declaration www.pdc.org Hazus Hurricane Lane “Late Turn Scenario” • $3.7 Billion in building losses are widespread • 94% of losses are to residential property www.pdc.org Hazus Hurricane Lane “Late Turn Scenario” • Almost 250K tons of debris • “Eligible” debris means building debris and tree debris that has fallen on or adjacent to public “right-ofways” • “Eligible” is based on the FEMA criteria for reimbursement. www.pdc.org Mitigation Plan Hurricane Loss Modelling Three Scenarios incorporating topographic effects (speedup, slowdown): • Cat 2 Direct: “1,000” year event • Cat 1 Direct: “500” year event • Tropical Storm: “100” year event 10 www.pdc.org Hazus “1,000 year” Cat 2 Direct Hit • Topographic effects result in up to Category 5 wind speeds • Peak Gust: 180 mph • 16% loss ratio $30.0 Billion Total Economic Loss www.pdc.org Hazus “500 year” Cat 1 Direct Hit • Topographic effects result in up to Category 4 wind speeds • Peak Gust: 155 mph • 12% loss ratio $21.8 Billion Total Economic Loss www.pdc.org Hazus “100 year” Tropical Storm • Topographic effects result in up to Category 3 wind speeds • Peak Gust: 142 mph • 4% loss ratio $6.0 Billion Total Economic Loss www.pdc.org Vulnerable Hawaii Building Types Single Wall No Hurricane Straps 14 1 in 5 Destroyed with 120 mph (Category 2) peak gust www.pdc.org Vulnerable Hawaii Building Types Double Wall Hurricane Straps 15 3% Destroyed with 120 mph (Category 2) peak gust www.pdc.org Hazus Hurricane Economic Losses Average Annualized Hurricane Losses Supports investment decisions Determines cost effectiveness for mitigation • $410M per year • $431 per capita www.pdc.org Hazus Hurricane Damages “1,000 Year” Cat 2 Event Residential Building Damage by Count 52,000 Maximum Peak Gust: 180 mph Total Households Displaced Affected 37,000 Minor Major Destroyed 28,000 13,000 20,000 $27.4 Billion Total Capital Economic Loss Commercial Property (Billion $) 1.90 7% Other Property (Billion $) 0.75 3% Residential Property (Billion $) 24.70 90% www.pdc.org Hazus Hurricane Debris Losses Supports resource planning Debris planning expedites recovery www.pdc.org Hawaii’s Great Aleutian Tsunami Scenario “East Aleutian” scenario energy directed to Hawaii Geologic evidence on Kauai – 30 foot runup, ~500 years ago 3x greater than 1946 – Hawaii’s deadliest tsunami 19 www.pdc.org Hazus “3,500 year” Tsunami • $1.8 Billion Essential Facility Losses • Population Exposed: • Day: 404K • Night: 294K $26.3 Billion Total Building Economic Loss www.pdc.org Hazus “1,500 year” Great Aleutian Tsunami • Extreme Evacuation Zone • $396 Million Essential Facility Building Losses • Population Exposed: • Day: 298K • Night: 217K $9.6 Billion Total Building Economic Loss www.pdc.org Hazus “400 year” Tsunami • Standard Evacuation Zone • $67 Million Essential Facility Building Losses • Population Exposed: • Day: 86K • Night: 59K $1.0 Billion Total Building Economic Loss www.pdc.org Hazus Tsunami Essential Facility Losses • Significant losses in extreme zones • Mostly schools and government occupancy types Hospitals (Million $) 87.40 5% Schools (Million $), 1,033.70, 58% Government (Million $) 633.00 35% Emergency Response (Million $) 35.40 2% www.pdc.org Hazus 100 Year Flood Hazard Losses • Depth grid developed based on FEMA base flood elevations • Residential comprises 58% of flood loss www.pdc.org Hazus Essential Facility Losses: FEMA Flood • 62% ($253M) Government (water front facilities) • 34% ($140M) Schools www.pdc.org dbausch@pdc.org Better solutions. Fewerd isasters. Safer world. @pdc