During our interview, President Calderon mentioned some data that we’d like to review and include in our program. Specifically, he said there are statistics that the rates of homicides and violence were increasing prior to his administration. Can you please send us that information or tell us where to find it? Vicious violence registered in Mexico is closely related to disputes between criminal organizations over routes, territories and profits. This phenomenon began prior to President Calderon’s government. For instance, since 2003 there were severe conflicts between the Pacific Cartel, the Tijuana Cartel, the Gulf Cartel and the Juarez Cartel. In 2004, members of Juarez Cartel killed the brother of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman (Pacific Cartel) inside the Maximum-Security Prison of Altiplano. Soon afterwards, Vicente Carrillo’s brother (Juarez Cartel), was shot dead in retaliation, by the Pacific Cartel. Turf wars and other disputes among criminal organizations were increasingly violent and they were also becoming more frequent. As an example of these, in 2005, human heads were left in front of the City Council in Acapulco, and in 2006 a similar event occurred in a night club in Uruapan, Michoacan. In both cases, the decapitated heads were accompanied by “narcomantas”, messages containing threats from criminal groups. The following quotes illustrate the point: “The increase of drug-related deaths was so evident that the U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, Tony Garza, sent several letters of protest to the Mexican government because of the violence in the City of Nuevo Laredo. On January 26, 2005, the U.S. Ambassador in Mexico, Tony Garza, sent a protest letter to the Mexican Secretary of Foreign Relations, Luis Ernesto Derbez, in which he complained about violence: “the increasing fight between the elements of the drug cartels has brought as a consequence drastic increases in killings and 12 kidnappings”. According to Garza, the high level of violence has provoked “bigger risks for the thousands of U.S. citizens that visit or cross through the border region every day. A bigger number of American 13 citizens killed and kidnapped confirm this”. Probably that was the reason why President Fox was so reluctant to use public force: he did not want to feed drug-related violence by using the police or the Army. However, despite this reluctance, the Fox Administration decided to launch an anti-drugs operation called “Safe Mexico” on June 12, 2005”. Jorge Chabat, “Combatting Drugs in Mexico under Calderon: The Inevitable War”. Documentos de Trabajo del CIDE, Núm. 25. México. Diciembre 2010, pp.1-16. Disponible en: https://cide.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/bitstream/1011/43/1/000103252_documen to.pdf “Desde 2005 los cárteles del Pacífico y Juárez estaban en conflicto abierto, producto de sendos asesinatos de hermanos de Joaquín Guzmán Loera, alias El Chapo, y Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, alias El Viceroy. Ese mismo año el Cártel del Pacífico intentó infructuosamente desplazar al Cártel del Golfo en Nuevo Laredo y otras poblaciones de Tamaulipas, lo cual motivó un operativo federal amplio, denominado “México Seguro”. La ruptura de la Familia Michoacana con el Cártel del Golfo y los Zetas se produjo igualmente en 2005 y 2006. Asimismo, la violenta reacción de Arturo Beltrán Leyva ante la detención de su hermano Alfredo en enero de 2008 habla de la existencia de un conflicto previo con sus socios del Cártel del Pacífico. Los conflictos entre grupos criminales no son cosa nueva, pero éstos no eran los narcos de antaño. Como documenta Guillermo Valdés en su reciente libro, las organizaciones del narcotráfico se habían militarizado desde finales de los noventa, al tiempo en que ampliaban su presencia territorial y diversificaban sus fuentes de ingreso”. Hope, Alejandro, 2013. “Violencia 2007.2011. La tormenta perfecta” en Nexos, Noviembre. Disponible en: https://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=15547 Grillo, Ioan, 2011. El Narco. Inside Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency. Bloomsbury Press. P. 94. A fines de 2006 se sabía que el narcotráfico se había expandido y fortalecido. En su discurso de toma de posesión, Felipe Calderón aseguró que “hoy la delincuencia pretende atemorizar e inmovilizar a la sociedad y al gobierno; la inseguridad pública amenaza a todos y se ha convertido en el principal problema de estados, ciudades y regiones enteras”. Por su parte, la Conferencia Nacional de Gobernadores (Conago), en un documento titulado “Hacia un nuevo sistema integral de combate al crimen organizado. Estrategia y plan de acción”, hizo el siguiente diagnóstico: “El fenómeno del narcotráfico se ha transformado en estos últimos años; ya no es sólo un problema de producción y de tráfico de drogas, sino que se ha convertido en una red de grupos supraestatales, organizados, que combaten entre sí para apoderarse de regiones, ciudades o plazas. Su objetivo es asegurar el tráfico y el control de los narcóticos en el mayoreo y en el menudeo; organizar otro tipo de actividades delictivas como el contrabando, el robo de mercancías, de vehículos; apoderarse de giros negros y de lavado de dinero… Esto ha llevado a la conformación de una especie de anti-Estado o antigobierno, que tiene como resultado una población que opera sobre un territorio y ejerce su poder a través de dinero, del manejo de la violencia física y de las armas o de la amenaza de su utilización. En este año han aumentado radicalmente el número de ejecuciones, siendo más de dos mil las que se han registrado”. Valdés, Guillermo, 2017. “La senda del crimen” en Nexos, Enero. Disponible en: https://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=30864 President Calderon also asserted that violence during his administration was linked to increasing domestic drug use in Mexico and disputes between criminal organizations over who would supply these drug users. Can you please share any data that supports this claim? One of the main and most credible efforts to identify levels of drugs consumption in Mexico is the National Addictions Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Adicciones, ENA), its results revealed that between 2002 and 2008 the prevalence of use of drugs had doubled within the most vulnerable sector of the population. Trends in drug use “during the last year”. Population between 12-17 years old. Source: Ministry of Health (Secretaría de Salud). National Commission Against Addictions. National Addictions Survey. 2011: Drug Report. National Institute of Psychiatry “Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz”, 2012. Retrieved from: http://www.conadic.salud.gob.mx/pdfs/ENA_2011_DROGAS_ILICITAS_.pdf Lastly, President Calderon said there was statistical data that proved his strategy of combating drug violence by enforcing the rule of law was working in various parts of the country, progress that has either stopped or regressed under President PeñaNieto’s administration. Can you please share the data that shows that President Calderon’s strategy was working? The following table shows the variation in homicide rates in selected cities in which the National Security Strategy 2006-2012 (Estrategia Nacional de Seguridad) was implemented. In the Excel file attached, the complete series of data, from December 2006 to December 2017, is available. Data was generated by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, for its acronym in Spanish) and it shows that in some cities the homicide rates started to decline by the end of Calderon’s and they started to increase again during the current presidential period (2012-2018). Number of homicides per month registered in some cities where the National Security Strategy 2006-2012 was implemented. City Chihuahua, Chih Highest number registered during President Calderon Administration Highest number registered by the end of President Calderon Administration aug-2010 nov-12 145 oct-10 Ciudad Juarez, Chih 477 mar-10 Culiacan, Sin 90 dec-2010 Mazatlan, Sin 53 sept-2011 Monterrey, NL Reynosa, Tamps Tijuana, BC 241 nov-12 48 nov-12 29 nov-12 14 nov-12 68 aug-2010 nov-12 52 6 jan-2010 nov-12 242 sept-2011 Veracruz, Ver 28 69 34 nov-12 13 Var % -81% Var % -90% Var % -68% Var % -74% Var % -72% Var % -88% Var % -86% Var % -81% Source: information from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Mortality statistics. Retrieved from: http://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/olap/Proyectos/bd/continuas/mortalidad/Defunciones Hom.asp?s=est&c=28820&proy=mortgral_dh