Key findings from a survey of 600 likely voters in Virginia, with 180 cell phone-only respondents, conducted December 3-4, 2012. Project #122247 Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the key findings of a telephone survey conducted in Virginia. The survey was completed December 3-4, 2012, among 600 likely voters, including 180 cell phone-only respondents, and has a margin of error of +4.0%. Glen Bolger was the principal researcher on this project. Jim Hobart was the project director, and Kyle Clark provided analytical support. Political Environment PUBLIC OPINION ST AT I The mood of Virginia voters has improved a net ten points over the past year. State Mood Trend 57% 49% 42% 46% 42% 50% 45% 42% 45% 46% 43% 44% 47% 44% 44% 48% 52% 44% 40% 39% 36% 31% 3/09 6/1/09 6/22/09 8/09 9/10/09 9/21/09 Right Direction Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 11/09 6/10 9/10 8/11 12/12 Wrong Track 4 A solid majority of Virginians now approve of President Obama's job performance. Obama Approval Trend Strongly Approve: 36% Strongly Disapprove: 36% 58% 52% 46% 54% 45%* 54% 43% 51%* 50% 51%* 53% 51% 45% 47% 47% 45% 45% 6/10 9/10 8/11 5/12 55% 43% 38% 6/22/09 8/09 9/10/09 9/21/09 11/09 Approve 12/12 Disapprove *Denotes Rounding Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 5 Governor McDonnell PUBLIC OPINION ST AT I Governor McDonnell's job approval remains sky-high. McDonnell Approval Trend Strongly Approve: 23% Strongly Disapprove: 9% 68% 63%* 63% 63% 30%* 28%* 25% 25% 6/10/10 9/10/10 8/11 8/12 Approve 67% 24% 12/12 Disapprove *Denotes Rounding Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 7 McDonnell earns solid approval ratings from Inds and soft Democrats, and even a slim plurality of base Democrats approve of his job performance. McDonnell Approval by Party +74% +79% +45% +23% +4% 86% 85% 67% 53% 48% 44% 30% 22% 11% Base GOP (22%) 7% Soft GOP (17%) Independent (16%) Total Approve Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 Soft Democrat (20%) Base Democrat (24%) Total Disapprove 8 McDonnell's approval rating is strong across all media markets. McDonnell Approval by DMA +44% +37% +55% +40% +33% 74% 67% 66% 61% 23% DC (35%) 26% 24% Roanoke (14%) 31% 19% Richmond (18%) Total Approve Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 64% Norfolk (22%) Other (10%) Total Disapprove 9 McDonnell's "lowest" approval rating is 58%, in the Southside region. McDonnell Approval by Region +46% 68% +44% +35% Northern Virginia (31%) +36% 73% 68% 22% +53% 68% 64% 58% 29% 24% 20% Mtn (11%) +42% Piedmont/ East Valley (15%) Richmond (11%) Total Approve 22% Total Disapprove Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 Southside (12%) 26% Hampton Roads (20%) 10 Virginians overwhelmingly approve of the Governor's efforts to attract jobs and businesses to the state. "Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob McDonnell is doing in bringing new jobs and businesses to Virginia?" Strongly Approve: 26% Strongly Disapprove: 7% 68% 58% 61% 24% 25%* 6/10 8/11 19% Total Approve 12/12 Total Disapprove *Denotes Rounding Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 11 PUBLIC OPINION ST AT I The Gubernatorial ballot test is a statistical tie, with about 15% of voters undecided. "If the election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were... Ken Cuccinelli, Republican, and Terry McAuliffe, Democrat?" Undecided 15%* Cuccinelli 42% McAuliffe 43% *Denotes Rounding Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 13