CLIMATE WATCH THE BULLETIN OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE COALITION Volume 2 Issue 2 February CLIMATE CHANGE article in the November 26 issue of Science maga- zine said that Dr. Sallie Baliunas, chair of the George C. Marshall Institute and researcher at the Harvard-Smithson- ian Center for Astrophysics, ?broke the mold? of climate research with her recent research findings that hint at a possible link between solar activity (sun spots) and global tem- ratures. Her findings were pub- ished in a recent issue of Energy. Many astronomers see Baliunas? new data as offering the promise of new insight into the mysteries of solar variability. ?No one else has data that can answer those questions,? said Harvard's Dr. John Stauffer. The suggestion that the sun, not greenhouse gases, may be driving cli- mate change was first proposed in a study that researchers from the Dan- ish Meteorological Institute published in Science on November 1, 1991. Comparing temperature records from the Northern Hemisphere with the length of the sunspot cycle from 1860 to the present, the Danish team found that the sunspot cycle decreased and increased in a mirror image of the temperature pattern. "[Somel peOPIe call it an exercise in curve They said there was no physics in it,? Dr. Robert Jas- trow of the Mount Wilson Observa- tory and coauthor of the Energy told Science. Those who hold that view may a December op-ed for the New York Times, Philip M. Boffey, a staff editorial writer for the paper, focused on the environmental problems China is facing in its econom- ic expansion and posed the situation as a challenge to the United States and other developed nations. ?One American projection even sug- gests that China could pass the U.S. in carbon emissions by the year Boffey wrote, adding, ?The outlook would be even worse had China not done an exemplary job of controlling its energy appetite despite furious econom- ic energy growth to half the rate of economic growth. But most think the easy part has been accomplished and that further effi- ciency gains will be much harder." As evidence that Chinese officials are committed to using energy more effi- ciently, Boffey cites current programs, TIMES WRITER HIGHLIGHTS RISING EMISSIONS such as a large hydroelectric plant by the Yangtze River that will produce power without emitting carbon dioxide, a tree-planting program that has increased forest coverage for the first time in years and experiments with cleaner home heating approaches. Vice Minister of Electric Power Zha Keming ?believes that nuclear become [China's] chief energy source in 50 years,? according to Boffey. Despite these programs and a state- ment by China?s top environmental official that all countries should work to lower carbon emissions ?even before global warming is fully proved," Boffey noted that in China itself global warm- ing is not a high priority: ?And when most Chinese officials are asked what environmental problems are most acute, they invariably cite urban air pollution, population growth, clean Continued on page 4 April, the President?s Council on Sustainable Development (PCSD) task force expects to publish a set of principles that will guide environ- mentally sustainable growth in the Unit- ed States. The final guidelines will resolve ques- tions and comments the PCSD receives on a draft set of principles that it distrib- uted via a news release and published in the Federal Register after its January meeting in Seattle. At the meeting, the PCSD examined Earth Summit Agenda 21, sustainable development efforts in Australia and Canada, and recommenda- soonhovetotalceanotherlook. In . tions from non-govemmental organiza- tions, such as the Washington, DC-based Global Tomorrow Coalition. PCSD TO DEFINE PRINCIPLES Among the guidelines included in the draft are the following: 0 ?Where environmental damage may be large or irreversible, prudent action is required, even in the face of scientific uncertainty." 0 ?National security now depends on environmental and economic securi- ty as much as on military defense.? 0 ?Development should respect the finite nature of many of the nation?s resources.? 0 ?The elimination of poverty is essen- tial to economic progress and envi- ronmental equality." Continued on page 4 Executive Director?s Column OUTLOOK 0N U.N. CLIMATE TREATY ByJohn Shims March 21, 1994 just three years alter its first negotiating session. the UN. Framework Convention on Climate Change viill go into effect All signatories as well as ratifiers of this treatv be legally bound by its prowsions measures that mil have international in?uence on ener- gy, environmental, economic and regula- tors policies for years to come. However. many in the international community are already calling for revi- sions to the treaty to establish new goals and targets and a new "web" of interna- tional regulations that would mandate national and international caps on emis- sions or mandate the stabilization of greenhouse gas "concentrations," which would require major reduc- tions of emissions. Surely these kinds of measures could severely damage the ability of US. industry to sustain economic growth and develop new markets. At the same time this approach also would sti?e the objective that many have, which is to work With others throughout the world to improve the environment while simultaneously con- tributing to worldwode eco- nomic sustainability and pro- moting the principle that policy actions should be dri- ven by advances in the state of knowledge about climate change. The treaty does not bind the United States or any oth- er nation to stabilization of nor does it require specific reductions of emissions to a certain level within a time period. The treaty does commit countris to the 'aim' of returning emissions to ?earlier levels" by the year In asklition. the treaty requires all developed countries to pre- pare National Action Plans showing how past and future actions will reduce the future growth of emissions. it also begins to address ways that developed countries can assist lesser developed nations, through technology and ?know how," to develop an inventory of their greenhouse . gases and a plan to reduce them. The ?exibility in the treaty language recog- nizes that every country varis in eco- nomic, social and geophysical circum- stances. and it allows for the design of a program that will sustain economies and forge new relationships while working toward the reduction of global green- house gas emissions. This ?exible approach also recognizes that the scien- $100 billion annually in environmental tific community still has a great deal . more to learn about man-made green- house gases and their impact on the worldwide climate. For some countries, like the United States, the stakes in this issue are very high. US. industry, which invests over protection and has increased its energy ef?ciency by almost 40 percent in the past 20 years, could suffer both economi- cally and, more importantly, competi- lively if a mandate is established to cap emissions at 1990 levels. Several econo mists have said that for the United States to stabilize emissions by the year 2000 would result In a 1.5 percent to 2 percent reduction in GNP and potential job loss- es of between 500,000 and 1 million because its economy relies on fossil fuels. At the same time, use of fossil fuels by developing countries is projected to increase dramatically through the year 2025 and beyond as more energy is PQZ pm. uired to support their economic rowth. The 1992 supplemental report of the lntergovemmental Panel on Climate Change indicated that 68 percent of total energy-related C02 emissions will come from non-OEC (Organization for Eco- nomic Cooperation and Development) countries by 2025. However, while the emissions of lesser developed countries will go up as a percentage of total emis- sions, emissions from the United States and other developed countries will con- tinue to decline under the treaty as it is currently written, with the United States pr0jected to contribute only 10 percent of the world?s total emissions by 2050. Developing countries will need to draw on the technology and investment capital of developed countries in order to sustain their economic growth and, at the same time, mitigate the increase in emissions that will come with this growth. Given the existing energy ef?ciency in the Unit- ed States and the rest of the developed world, the marginal cost of reducing eenhouse gas emissions by increasing .ergy ef?ciency is far less in developing countries than in the developed world. For this reason the developing countn'es' role in the process is very important, and special consideration should be given to ways to help developing countries upgrade their environmental policies, industrial performance and resource management practices. The Climate Convention contains a wide rangeofissuessuchasthesethat haveyettoberesolved. These issues in many ways will begin to redefine long- standing relationships among countries as well as among countries and international institutions. The world's industries will be faced with new concepts and markets while confronted with all the implications of competing in a global economy. in a very short time frame, ?groundrules' will be dweloped on such isues as joint implementation, the role of new 'sub- sidiary bodies' to help administer the treaty, financial aid to lesser developed countries, relationships with major new mom .. tal Panel on Climate Change, and requirements for ambush- trig omissions invontoriu and ndudlon measures. Discunlons on that bus will coritlnus In Cornwallis mush a dis a CLIMATE WATCH SCIENCE UPDATE 2 NEW ICE CORE CHANGES OUTLOOK ON HISTORICAL CLIMATE ew research casts doubt on the much publicized analysis of a core extracted from the Green- land Ice sheet, which suggested that future global warming might lead to disruptive spells of cold in countries bor- dering the northern Atlantic Ocean. The original july report by the Green- land ice Core Project (GRIP) team was based on an ice core dating from the warm period that preceded the last ice age from 115,000 to 135,000 years ago. when the global average temperature was about 4 degrees higher than today. The core seemed to reveal several repeated and abrupt coolings, with aver- a temperatures plunging as much as 2 degrees Fahrenheit within one or two decades. The finding caused alarm because no one could explain the huge temperature shifts. However, a more recent study by Dr. Richard Fairbanks and a team of researchers from Columbia and the Uni- versity of California at San Diego has explained these apparent drops and found that the Earth's climate is remark- ably stable. "It would be an overstate- ment to say the temperature oscillations were only half as much as they [the GRIP team] concluded. but I think it?s on that order." fairbanks said. ?We tind that in the last 9000 wars the lim.itt' has been remarkably stable The original study assumed that all it- matit? evidence buried in (irvenland's ice reflected lht' ounlry's ant imt .tir tem- perature. yet fairhanks has evident that the ice samples are not an untaintecl li- ntatit round but a re?ection Oi tempera- tures trom around the world. According to Fairbanks, the it sam- ples indir ate where the snow that fell on Greenland centuries ago originated. The ice samples ontain different iso- topes of osygen. The ratio of the heat- ier isotope to the lovier one reveals the temperature at the time the l( vtas formed: the the oxygen. the warmer the temperature However, Greenland is a major inter- section where global air masses collide before dumping snow and sleet Climat- it' shifts that sent rain from Hawaii to become snow in Greenland would shift the kind of oxygen isotopes discovered centuries later. In addition. moisture that traveled long distances would lose much of the heaw isoth?, giving a false indi- cation of colder temperatures, Fairbanks' team concluded. Source: Assocrared Press, Ianuary 27, 1994. 9th meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Climate Change. These continuing negotiations will offer a tremendous opportunity to put into place international relationships that will enhance the ability of countries such as the United States to provide environmental and energy technologies to developing countries through joint implementation. joint implementation is generally de?ned as two or more countries working together on programs to attain the unrest greenhouse gas emission reduction at the lowest cost for both parties. [15. Industry, w?i a throughout the world, could contribute greatly to advancing this concept. As we begin to consider and evaluate this concept, it would appear that the path that will provide the greatest return is one that evaluates each project on its own merit, separate and apart from the cumulative emissions of any party to the Convention: one that focuses on ?sav- ings? or emissions reduced, avorded or sequestered by projects and not on net emissions; and one that provides techni- cal and financial incentives for partici- pation in the pilot program, including goNernmenI assistance in obtaining acceptance by the host country govern- ment for the project and identifying sources of ?nancial resources. 0 i Snlu'r Activxty A mm bum rm' h'vm memMk, mmum my mm Mm M'u mum 'm lewh'h'Hwh w" va my an' min-mm mm .wqmu mm a kw<> .r Hum mort' yummy/mm! rm my ML <> HM \m-u W'Hnw'w'd mm .M MN h.me mm mm\ulhm "my "Mum". mu Um 'Mm'y' \n mm mm, \xpm' \n-xw - \mw Mu- Mu \mnh waumm .wzH . mmH'. Wm *'muw mm mm mm 'x mm "y "mum "(hmmuanh.w'mhm (mum [3mm A x" "mm uwn my." "mum \