Global Climate Coalition
1331 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
Suite 1500 - North Tower
Washington, DC 20004-1703
Tel: 202.637.3158
Fax: 202.638.1043
Alt. Fax: 202.638.1032

Dear Reporter:
Since the mid-1980s, global climate change has emerged as an environmental and economic
issue that is driving an astonishing array of potentially costly domestic and international policy
moves. What's behind the apocalypse scenarios that are stirring so much activity? Not as much
as one might think.
Global climate predictions are the products of complex mathematical equations processed by
sophisticated computers. Unfortunately, the limitations of these computer simulations -- and
their "predictions" -- have gone largely unacknowledged outside the immediate scientific
community. Many modelers themselves warn against taking the model scenarios as predictions
of the future. Yet, all too often, the scenarios are accepted as fact and become the subjects of
frightening news reports, or worse, the basis of calls for radical policy measures.
Accepting the scenarios as forecasts has become so commonplace that the environmental
magazine Garbage has mistakenly dubbed global warming "the theory that became fact."
The enclosed backgrounder on climate modeling is intended as an introduction to the rest of the
story. It explores the most important questions that must be resolved to improve the reliability of
climate models. The aim is not to discredit the models, but rather to ensure that they are properly
understood. Indeed, when not taken out of context, they are a valuable research tool for
exploring climate dynamics.
I hope you find the background information interesting and valuable as you write on climate
change issues in the future. Please do not hesitate to contact GCC if you have any questions or
would like any further information.
Sincerely,

Shlaes
Executive Director
(8210]