DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2182 December 10-13, 2018 1,838 active registered voter contacts weighted by age and congressional district 455 Democratic likely caucusgoers Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here? 100 Yes No Not sure Continue Terminate and do not collect demographics. How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus? Dem CGs 57 43 - Definitely attend Democratic caucus Probably attend Democratic caucus Definitely attend Republican caucus Probably attend Republican caucus Probably not attend a caucus Don’t know which caucus will attend Not sure Define as likely Democratic caucusgoers and continue Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus, or both? Dem CGs 11 60 7 21 - Attended Republican caucus in the past Attended Democratic caucus in the past Attended both First caucus Not sure ____________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 1 Now, I’m going to mention some prominent Democrats, including potential candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Joe Biden, former vice president of the United States 82 Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City 40 Cory Booker, U.S. senator from New Jersey 49 Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio 23 Steve Bullock, governor of Montana 11 Julián Castro, former U.S. secretary of Housing and Urban Development 27 Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in 2016 47 John Delaney, U.S. congressman from Maryland 25 Eric Garcetti, mayor of Los Angeles 13 Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York 35 Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California 49 John Hickenlooper, governor of Colorado 24 Eric Holder, former U.S. attorney general 42 Jay Inslee, governor of the state of Washington 11 Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota 38 Beto O’Rourke, U.S. congressman from Texas 53 Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont 74 Tom Steyer, hedge fund manager and activist 19 Eric Swalwell, U.S. congressman from California 20 Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts 64 Andrew Yang, businessman 5 Net Fav Net Unf Very Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Unfavorable 15 47 35 11 4 4 31 8 32 20 11 29 12 18 31 6 6 39 8 8 6 2 17 9 5 5 3 3 69 82 10 6 21 7 3 63 49 17 29 26 22 4 11 11 6 3 19 11 7 7 4 4 64 75 10 7 28 5 4 55 10 19 29 6 4 41 9 6 18 6 3 67 16 10 32 10 6 42 8 3 8 5 2 82 8 16 22 5 3 54 11 28 25 7 4 36 22 43 31 12 10 4 19 5 15 14 6 61 10 5 14 4 5 70 20 12 30 1 35 4 13 6 7 6 16 83 ____________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 2 Very Unfavorable Not Sure Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) And who would your second choice be? (If None of these or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg Cory Booker Sherrod Brown Steve Bullock Julián Castro John Delaney Eric Garcetti Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris John Hickenlooper Eric Holder Jay Inslee Amy Klobuchar Beto O’Rourke Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer Eric Swalwell Elizabeth Warren Andrew Yang None of these (VOL) Not sure No first choice First Choice 32 3 4 1 1 1 5 1 3 11 19 8 4 6 n/a ____________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 3 Second Choice 18 3 7 2 1 6 1 1 1 2 12 14 1 1 10 1 3 6 10 (Ask only for each candidate NOT selected as first or second choice in previous question.) I’m going to mention the Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president in the future or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as previous question. If selected as first or second choice, code AC=4 and do not ask.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Ever Never Not sure Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg Cory Booker Sherrod Brown Steve Bullock Julián Castro John Delaney Eric Garcetti Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris John Hickenlooper Eric Holder Jay Inslee Amy Klobuchar Beto O’Rourke Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer Eric Swalwell Elizabeth Warren Andrew Yang 40 48 51 35 30 40 39 33 48 48 35 50 32 44 42 49 36 36 54 28 8 24 14 21 21 18 18 19 16 13 20 19 19 15 13 15 21 18 17 22 3 22 24 42 48 41 42 47 35 28 43 30 49 36 21 3 42 45 11 48 1st or 2nd choice in previous question 50 6 11 3 1 1 1 11 2 1 1 5 23 33 1 1 18 1 I’m going to mention some other names people might think of as potential candidates for president. For each, please tell me if you think they would add to or detract from the race for president. (Rotate list.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Hillary Clinton Oprah Winfrey, businesswoman and television personality Michelle Obama, former first lady Howard Schultz, the former CEO of Starbucks Add Detract 25 40 76 17 72 55 22 55 Not Sure 3 4 2 28 Do you think the right person to defeat Donald Trump will be more of a political newcomer, as he was, or more of a seasoned political hand? Dem CGs 36 49 15 Newcomer Seasoned hand Not sure ____________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 4 Which is more important to you personally: (Read items. Rotate.) Dem CGs 54 40 6 That the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus be a candidate for president with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump That the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus be a candidate for president who shares your positions on major issues Not sure For each of the following, please tell me if this is an essential trait you’d like to see in an American president—just answer yes or no. (Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.) Dem CGs 90 90 87 89 80 93 81 1 Someone who will restore relationships with longtime U.S. allies A person with a strong moral compass A person with deep knowledge of policy and politics Someone who will unite the country Someone who respects decorum A person who will tell the truth, even if I don’t agree Someone who represents the future of the Democratic Party None of these (VOL) Not sure If a Republican candidate chose to challenge Donald Trump in the caucuses, do you think you would consider participating in that party’s caucus, or would you stay with the Democrats? Dem CGs 28 64 7 Consider participating with Republicans Stay with the Democrats Not sure In terms of selecting the Democratic nominee to run for president in the year 2020, which do you think would be better for the Democratic Party? (Read options. Rotate.) Dem CGs 52 41 7 For there to be a number of strong candidates competing for the nomination over the next year For one strong candidate to emerge early on as the clear front-runner for the nomination Not sure ____________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 5 ABOUT THE POLL The Iowa Poll, conducted December 10-13, 2018, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 455 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably participate in the 2020 Democratic caucuses. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,838 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list. Questions based on the sample of 455 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited. ____________________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 6