DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY 450 Registered Republicans Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points Study #2182 December 10-13, 2018 503 registered Republican contacts weighted by age and congressional district 455 Democratic likely caucusgoers Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points 1,838 active registered voter contacts weighted by age and congressional district Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here? 100 Yes No Not sure Continue Terminate and do not collect demographics. How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2020 when presidential candidates will be on the agenda—will you definitely attend, probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus? Dem CGs Reg Reps 57 43 - 23 24 47 3 3 Definitely attend Democratic caucus Probably attend Democratic caucus Definitely attend Republican caucus Probably attend Republican caucus Probably not attend a caucus Don’t know which caucus will attend Not sure Define as likely Democratic caucusgoers and continue. If Registered Republican, define as Republican and skip to favorability on Republican figures. If not registered Republican, collect age, sex, party registration and congressional district from sample, then terminate. Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus, or both? Dem CGs 11 60 7 21 - Attended Republican caucus in the past Attended Democratic caucus in the past Attended both First caucus Not sure Now, I’m going to mention some prominent Democrats, including potential candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Joe Biden, former vice president of the United States 82 Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City 40 Cory Booker, U.S. senator from New Jersey 49 Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio 23 Steve Bullock, governor of Montana 11 Julián Castro, former U.S. secretary of Housing and Urban Development 27 Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in 2016 47 John Delaney, U.S. congressman from Maryland 25 Eric Garcetti, mayor of Los Angeles 13 Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York 35 Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California 49 John Hickenlooper, governor of Colorado 24 Eric Holder, former U.S. attorney general 42 Jay Inslee, governor of the state of Washington 11 Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota 38 Beto O’Rourke, U.S. congressman from Texas 53 Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont 74 Tom Steyer, hedge fund manager and activist 19 Eric Swalwell, U.S. congressman from California 20 Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts 64 Andrew Yang, businessman 5 Net Fav Net Unf Very Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Not Sure 15 47 35 11 4 4 31 8 32 20 11 29 12 18 31 6 6 39 8 8 6 2 17 9 5 5 3 3 69 82 10 6 21 7 3 63 49 17 29 26 22 4 11 11 6 3 19 11 7 7 4 4 64 75 10 7 28 5 4 55 10 19 29 6 4 41 9 6 18 6 3 67 16 10 32 10 6 42 8 3 8 5 2 82 8 16 22 5 3 54 11 28 25 7 4 36 22 43 31 12 10 4 19 5 15 14 6 61 10 5 14 4 5 70 20 12 30 1 35 4 13 6 7 6 16 83 Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) And who would your second choice be? (If None of these or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg Cory Booker Sherrod Brown Steve Bullock Julián Castro John Delaney Eric Garcetti Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris John Hickenlooper Eric Holder Jay Inslee Amy Klobuchar Beto O’Rourke Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer Eric Swalwell Elizabeth Warren Andrew Yang None of these (VOL) Not sure No first choice First Choice 32 3 4 1 1 1 5 1 3 11 19 8 4 6 n/a Second Choice 18 3 7 2 1 6 1 1 1 2 12 14 1 1 10 1 3 6 10 (Ask only for each candidate NOT selected as first or second choice in previous question.) I’m going to mention the Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president in the future or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as previous question. If selected as first or second choice, code AC=4 and do not ask.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Ever Never Not sure Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg Cory Booker Sherrod Brown Steve Bullock Julián Castro John Delaney Eric Garcetti Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris John Hickenlooper Eric Holder Jay Inslee Amy Klobuchar Beto O’Rourke Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer Eric Swalwell Elizabeth Warren Andrew Yang 40 48 51 35 30 40 39 33 48 48 35 50 32 44 42 49 36 36 54 28 8 24 14 21 21 18 18 19 16 13 20 19 19 15 13 15 21 18 17 22 3 22 24 42 48 41 42 47 35 28 43 30 49 36 21 3 42 45 11 48 1st or 2nd choice in previous question 50 6 11 3 1 1 1 11 2 1 1 5 23 33 1 1 18 1 I’m going to mention some other names people might think of as potential candidates for president. For each, please tell me if you think they would add to or detract from the race for president. (Rotate list.) Among likely Democratic caucusgoers Hillary Clinton Oprah Winfrey, businesswoman and television personality Michelle Obama, former first lady Howard Schultz, the former CEO of Starbucks Add Detract 25 40 76 17 72 55 22 55 Not Sure 3 4 2 28 Do you think the right person to defeat Donald Trump will be more of a political newcomer, as he was, or more of a seasoned political hand? Dem CGs 36 49 15 Newcomer Seasoned hand Not sure Which is more important to you personally: (Read items. Rotate.) Dem CGs 54 40 6 That the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus be a candidate for president with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump That the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus be a candidate for president who shares your positions on major issues Not sure For each of the following, please tell me if this is an essential trait you’d like to see in an American president—just answer yes or no. (Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.) Dem CGs 90 90 87 89 80 93 81 1 Someone who will restore relationships with longtime U.S. allies A person with a strong moral compass A person with deep knowledge of policy and politics Someone who will unite the country Someone who respects decorum A person who will tell the truth, even if I don’t agree Someone who represents the future of the Democratic Party None of these (VOL) Not sure If a Republican candidate chose to challenge Donald Trump in the caucuses, do you think you would consider participating in that party’s caucus, or would you stay with the Democrats? Dem CGs 28 64 7 Consider participating with Republicans Stay with the Democrats Not sure In terms of selecting the Democratic nominee to run for president in the year 2020, which do you think would be better for the Democratic Party? (Read options. Rotate.) Dem CGs 52 41 7 For there to be a number of strong candidates competing for the nomination over the next year For one strong candidate to emerge early on as the clear front-runner for the nomination Not sure (Democratic caucusgoers: Skip to demographics.) [Ask next section only of registered Republicans.] Now, I’m going to mention some Republicans. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.) Among registered Republicans Net Fav Net Unf Very Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Unfavorable Very Unfavorable George W. Bush, former U.S. president 87 9 43 44 6 3 Bob Corker, U.S. senator from Tennessee 15 13 3 12 6 7 Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas 68 20 25 43 16 5 Jeff Flake, U.S. senator from Arizona 16 27 4 13 10 17 Nikki Haley, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations 52 6 29 23 3 3 John Kasich, governor of Ohio 31 26 9 22 16 10 Steve King, U.S. congressman from Iowa 58 22 23 35 10 11 Mitt Romney, U.S. senator-elect from Utah 65 21 16 49 14 7 Kim Reynolds, governor of Iowa 81 12 42 39 8 4 Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida 63 18 21 42 12 6 Ben Sasse, U.S. senator from Nebraska 24 11 8 16 6 5 Donald Trump, president of the United States 77 18 49 28 7 11 Matthew Whitaker, acting U.S. attorney general 37 8 17 21 5 3 Joni Ernst, U.S. senator from Iowa* 82 6 43 40 4 2 Chuck Grassley, U.S. senator from Iowa* 87 7 54 33 4 3 *These two questions started in the field Tuesday, so n=344. MoE: ±5.3 percentage points. Not Sure 5 72 12 57 42 43 20 14 7 20 65 5 55 12 6 In 2020, there will be normal Republican Party caucuses. There may or may not be candidates challenging Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. Do you think the Republican Party of Iowa should welcome challengers to Iowa to compete at the caucuses or discourage them from competing in Iowa? Reg Reps 63 26 11 Should welcome challengers Should discourage challengers Not sure Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? Reg Reps 81 14 4 Approve Disapprove Not sure If the general election vote for president of the United States were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote to re-elect President Trump, consider someone else, or definitely vote to elect someone else, or would you not vote? Reg Reps 67 19 10 1 3 Definitely vote to re-elect Trump Consider someone else Definitely vote to elect someone else Would not vote Not sure For each of the following Republicans, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president in the future or would never support the person for president. (Read list. Rotate.) Among registered Republicans Bob Corker Jeff Flake Nikki Haley John Kasich Mitt Romney Marco Rubio Ben Sasse Ever Never 11 14 46 31 53 59 21 40 47 21 39 37 30 31 Not sure 49 39 33 30 10 11 48 Within the Republican party, there are those who agree and those who disagree with President Trump on some issues. For each of the following plans or actions the president has taken, please tell me if you think it was a good move or a mistake. (Rotate list.) Among registered Republicans Building a wall on the southern border of the U.S. Imposing tariffs on imports from selected countries Pulling out of the Paris agreement on climate change Reducing the number of people allowed to immigrate legally to the U.S. Signing the Tax Cuts and Jobs act into law Naming Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court Sending U.S. military troops to the southern border to respond to the caravan of immigrants making its way across Mexico Withdrawing from the Trans Pacific Partnership Moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem Firing Jeff Sessions as attorney general Holding campaign-style rallies on a regular basis during his time in office Posting potentially inflammatory messages on Twitter on a regular basis Openly questioning the findings of U.S. government scientists or intelligence agencies Good Move Mistake Not Sure 74 69 57 71 78 81 21 22 26 19 9 7 5 9 17 9 13 12 83 55 70 54 70 19 12 19 9 21 19 72 5 26 21 25 11 9 59 25 16 For each of the following, please tell me if this is an essential trait you’d like to see in an American president—just answer yes or no. (Mark all that apply. Rotate list. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.) Reg Reps 69 83 85 87 83 90 72 87 64 90 80 1 Christian conservative Believer in small government A person with experience cutting budgets Someone who will not raise the national debt Someone who will restore relationships with longtime U.S. allies A person with a strong moral compass A person with deep knowledge of policy and politics Someone who will unite the country Someone who respects decorum A person who will tell the truth, even if I don’t agree Someone who represents the future of the Republican Party None of these (VOL) Not sure In the recent midterm elections, the Democrats won a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives, which gives them the power to set the legislative agenda. Who do you think is more to blame for Republican losses in last month’s elections? (Rotate items.) Reg Reps 54 24 22 The Republicans in Congress President Trump Not sure Donald Trump was not a career politician before becoming president. Do you think that has done more to help or more to hurt his effectiveness as president? Reg Reps 65 22 12 More to help More to hurt Not sure Do you believe Donald Trump cares more about: (Rotate options.) Reg Reps People like you People like Donald Trump Dec-18 55 26 Not sure 19 Would you say you feel more allegiance to the [Republican Party] or [President Trump]? (Rotate options.) Reg Reps 43 37 20 Republican Party President Trump Not sure ABOUT THE POLL The Iowa Poll, conducted December 10-13, 2018, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 455 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably participate in the 2020 Democratic caucuses and 450 registered Republicans. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,838 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list. For the registered Republican sample, responses for the 503 registered Republican contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active registered Republicans in the voter registration list. Questions based on the sample of 455 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, as does the sample of 450 registered Republicans. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, CNN, and Mediacom is prohibited.